It was a classic Big Sky title game, with both teams looking to be in control at different times. In the end, it was Eastern Washington making a stunning comeback in the final five minutes to beat Montana and take home the Big Sky title.
Early on, Eastern Washington looked like the team with more energy, and they got off to a nice start, building an early 14-7 lead. They had some missed chances early, but were active defensively, and really attacking the basket, especially going right at Martin Breunig (trying to get him in foul trouble). However, Montana weathered the storm, and took a 30-29 lead into the half.
In the second half, it was the Mike Weisner show, as he had a career high 18 points. He hit big shots throughout the second half, and at times found himself guarding Tyler Harvey, and doing a good job. He was really outstanding. Martin Breunig was also really great all game long. He finished with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and did a nice job defensively as well. If Montana had help on to win, he would be the one getting all the accolades, and rightfully so. He was outstanding.
At the 6:18 mark, Montana hit a basket to go up 59-48, and the crowd was going nuts. It was then that Eastern Washington went into a full-court press, which seemed to fluster Montana. The score was 61-52 at around the four minute mark. Then, Drew Brandon got a bucket, and Montana was called for a five second call after the couldn't get the ball in. After the TV timeout, Tyler Harvey hit a three, and suddenly it was a four point game and Montana was reeling. All told, EWU went on a 21-4 run to close the game out, save for the garbage time bucket by the Grizzlies with a second left.
Tyler Harvey, the nation's leading scorer, was at his best down the stretch. At the six minute mark, he had just ten points, and didn't seem to have any openings (many kudos have to go to Mario Dunn of Montana, who was sensational defensively). He had eight points down the stretch, including an and-1 on a 15 footer from the baseline, which gave EWU a four point lead with 43 seconds left, and the Grizzlies were never able to get any closer.
Montana has had trouble closing out opponents this year - Against both Sac State and Idaho, they had win probabilities of 97%+ in the final three minutes. I mentioned this in one of my previews coming into the tournament, and it turned out to be the Achilles heel for the Grizzlies. That's a tough way to lose.
Two other EWU players should be noted in a recap about the game. One is Bogdan Bliznyuk, as the freshman was outstanding, finishing with 13 points and 5 rebounds. At times, he was the only Eagle capable of getting buckets, and he kept the game close early in the second half. His future is very bright, obviously. The other guy is Drew Brandon, who finished with 16 points and 7 rebounds. His shooting has been unsteady this year, but it was on point in this game. One other Montana player to note is Jordan Gregory, who was getting to the basket all night. What a Big Sky tournament he had.
From an NCAA tournament standpoint, Eastern Washington had the best resume in the Big Sky conference, which should hopefully push them up a few lines when the brackets are announced. It has been a wildly successful season for the Eagles, who capture their second Big Sky championship, and could be even better next season.
What a classic.
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Saturday, March 14, 2015
Friday, March 13, 2015
Big Sky Statement on NAU/Montana Postgame Scuffle
After the postgame scuffle between Montana and Northern Arizona, the Big Sky has issued a postgame statement:
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“First thing, I want to compliment the players,’’ Fullerton said. “The players as we watch them, there are no punches thrown, and they are breaking it up. They absolutely did a good job, both sets of players. The one thing people want to know about is (Montana coach) Travis (DeCuire). I see absolutely no action by Travis that would cause us to suspend him or cause any problems for Travis tomorrow. We’re still reviewing the head coach at Northern Arizona.’’
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Eastern Washington and Montana Advance to Big Sky Title Game
For the second straight day, we had some great games in the Big Sky tournament. First, the less complicated game, which was Eastern Washington taking down Sacramento State, winning their second straight game by a score of 91-83.
The EWU offense was as good as they have been at any point all year. In the first half, Sac State focused on Tyler Harvey, and held him to 0 points. The problem was that everyone else for EWU was firing on all cylinders. Felix Van Hofe hit five first half threes before finishing with 23 points. Bodgan Bliznyuk had 16 off the bench, and Venky Jois had 19.
Eastern Washington was 15/25 from downtown in this game, and finished with 1.25 PPP. You're going to win a lot of games like that. I said before the conference tournament that EWU had the highest ceiling of any team in the Big Sky, and they showed it in this game. If they play like that, they can and will beat Montana.
For Sac State, it's a bittersweet end to the season, but they have plenty to be proud about. They finish the best season in school history, Mikh McKinney was the league MVP, and Brian Katz the co- Coach of the Year. The senior class has elevated the program to a level that probably would have been unthinkable four years ago.
The Hornets were beaten by a better team on this day, but what a season it was.
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In the other semifinal game, Montana escaped for the second straight day, this time hanging on to beat Northern Arizona 61-59 on a game-winner from Jordan Gregory with 0.4 seconds left.
Kris Yanku hit two free throws to tie the game with 8.2 seconds left, and Gregory got the ball and went coast to coast, driving right by Quinton Upshur (who looked more concerned with not fouling than with stopping Gregory) for the tough lay-in. This has gotten lost a bit in all of the happenings post-game (we'll get to it in a moment), but what a great play by Gregory.
He knew just how much time he had, he didn't settle for an outside shot, and he got a good look at the rim. That is textbook. It's a shame it got overshadowed a bit, but we need to give him his due.
However, as mentioned, after the shot, pandemonium broke out. College Basketball Talk has the video and image, but after the shot, 0.4 seconds remained on the clock. However, a Montana assistant ran on the court, realized there was time left on the clock, ran back and literally dove back to the bench. The play was reviewed (either for that or to see how much time was left), and 0.4 seconds was put on the clock, but no technical foul was called.
In my opinion, the Grizzlies were very lucky to get out of there with no technical. To my eye, a technical foul should have been called. From that CBT article, here is the rule that potentially applies:
I understand you don't want a game to end in that way, or be impacted like that, but a rule is a rule. A technical foul should have been assessed. In talking to others around the league, I am not alone in this thinking.
EDIT: One report does say it was not an assistant coach, but a player who is sitting out this season that ran onto the court. That does seem to be the case. It doesn't change my mind on the play, but I should note that distinction.
EDIT 2: The Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton made a statement after the game saying that Travis DeCuire will not be suspended for anything, but that they are still looking into the actions of NAU coach Jack Murphy.
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So, I've said my part! Once again, it's a shame this is taking away from the game itself a bit, because it has nothing to do with the Grizzlies players. They deserved to win this game, and for the second straight day, they made enough plays down the stretch to get the win and advance.
This sets up a dream Big Sky championship matchup between Montana and Eastern Washington, who are the two best teams in the Big Sky for my money. The teams split their season series, and each won on the other team's home court. We'll be in for a classic.
Preview to come tomorrow.
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The EWU offense was as good as they have been at any point all year. In the first half, Sac State focused on Tyler Harvey, and held him to 0 points. The problem was that everyone else for EWU was firing on all cylinders. Felix Van Hofe hit five first half threes before finishing with 23 points. Bodgan Bliznyuk had 16 off the bench, and Venky Jois had 19.
Eastern Washington was 15/25 from downtown in this game, and finished with 1.25 PPP. You're going to win a lot of games like that. I said before the conference tournament that EWU had the highest ceiling of any team in the Big Sky, and they showed it in this game. If they play like that, they can and will beat Montana.
For Sac State, it's a bittersweet end to the season, but they have plenty to be proud about. They finish the best season in school history, Mikh McKinney was the league MVP, and Brian Katz the co- Coach of the Year. The senior class has elevated the program to a level that probably would have been unthinkable four years ago.
The Hornets were beaten by a better team on this day, but what a season it was.
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In the other semifinal game, Montana escaped for the second straight day, this time hanging on to beat Northern Arizona 61-59 on a game-winner from Jordan Gregory with 0.4 seconds left.
Kris Yanku hit two free throws to tie the game with 8.2 seconds left, and Gregory got the ball and went coast to coast, driving right by Quinton Upshur (who looked more concerned with not fouling than with stopping Gregory) for the tough lay-in. This has gotten lost a bit in all of the happenings post-game (we'll get to it in a moment), but what a great play by Gregory.
He knew just how much time he had, he didn't settle for an outside shot, and he got a good look at the rim. That is textbook. It's a shame it got overshadowed a bit, but we need to give him his due.
However, as mentioned, after the shot, pandemonium broke out. College Basketball Talk has the video and image, but after the shot, 0.4 seconds remained on the clock. However, a Montana assistant ran on the court, realized there was time left on the clock, ran back and literally dove back to the bench. The play was reviewed (either for that or to see how much time was left), and 0.4 seconds was put on the clock, but no technical foul was called.
In my opinion, the Grizzlies were very lucky to get out of there with no technical. To my eye, a technical foul should have been called. From that CBT article, here is the rule that potentially applies:
Assistant coaches and bench personnel. All bench personnel, with the exception of the head coach, are required to be seated on the bench while the ball is live except to react spontaneously to an outstanding play and then to immediately return to sitting on the bench. Violations by players, especially assistant coaches, should not be tolerated by officials. When assistant coaches or bench personnel are violating bench decorum rules in a minor way, the official shall inform the head coach and request that he handle the situation. This is an official warning. Any further violation by bench personnel shall result in a technical foul assessed to the offender. Egregious (blatant) conduct violations by assistant coaches or bench personnel need no warning and shall immediately result in a technical foul. A tehnical foul assessed to bench personnel is also assessed as a CLASS B technical foul to the head coach.I understand that it ultimately did not impact the game, which is the explanation that was given to Coach Jack Murphy. However, the only reason it didn't impact the game was because NAU happened to not throw the ball in right away (perhaps because there was an assistant coach on the floor?) To my eye, that crosses the arbitrary standard of being an egregious or blatant violation.
I understand you don't want a game to end in that way, or be impacted like that, but a rule is a rule. A technical foul should have been assessed. In talking to others around the league, I am not alone in this thinking.
EDIT: One report does say it was not an assistant coach, but a player who is sitting out this season that ran onto the court. That does seem to be the case. It doesn't change my mind on the play, but I should note that distinction.
EDIT 2: The Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton made a statement after the game saying that Travis DeCuire will not be suspended for anything, but that they are still looking into the actions of NAU coach Jack Murphy.
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So, I've said my part! Once again, it's a shame this is taking away from the game itself a bit, because it has nothing to do with the Grizzlies players. They deserved to win this game, and for the second straight day, they made enough plays down the stretch to get the win and advance.
This sets up a dream Big Sky championship matchup between Montana and Eastern Washington, who are the two best teams in the Big Sky for my money. The teams split their season series, and each won on the other team's home court. We'll be in for a classic.
Preview to come tomorrow.
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
Northern Arizona and Montana Survive to Advance
For all of the parity in the Big Sky this year, all of the top seeds will advance to the semifinals. However, it certainly wasn't easy!
Northern Arizona's win over Northern Colorado didn't generate any style points, but they controlled the game defensively to get the 63-57 victory and advance to the Big Sky semifinals.
UNC had just 0.97 PPP, as they shot 15/39 inside the arc and 5/22 beyond it. Good looks were nowhere to be had, even as they grabbed 17 offensive rebounds. Tim Huskisson had 15 and 10 in his final career game, but Tevin Svihovec was held to 13 points on 4/17 shooting, and the Bears didn't have enough scorers to pick up the slack.
The game was tight the whole way, but it always felt like NAU had things under control. It was a power game, as they had 14 offensive rebounds themselves, consistently looking to get the ball inside. Jordyn Martin had 4 offensive rebounds, but the real star down low was Len Springs, who finished with 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He was a force down low on both ends.
But the star of the second half for NAU, I thought, was Aaseem Dixon, who always seemed to hit a big bucket when the Jacks needed one. He finished the game with 16 points, including hitting four threes.
In the first two games of the day, it was the stars that took over and powered their teams. In this game, it was a full team effort as NAU does what they couldn't do last year - beat Northern Colorado in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament.
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In the nightcap, we got a classic battle between Montana and Weber State, though the refs seemed to do everything they could to slow the flow of the game. 47 fouls were called in this game, many of the ticky tack variety. The topper was in OT, where Ryan Richardson may have slightly bumped Mike Weisner 25 feet from the basket, and was called for his fifth foul. Both coaches got warnings from the refs by the end of the first half, and things were inconsistent throughout. The silver lining is that both teams had plenty of reason to be miffed many times over, so it's not like one team was consistently favored. And that is the last I will say about the reffing.
First, let's talk about Weber State, who played their best game of the year, putting all they had into this one but coming up just short. Jeremy Senglin missed a month with a broken jaw, and played a wonderful game, finishing with 25 points, many of them in big spots. Joel Bolomboy had 18 and 10, and battled Martin Brenig all game.
The Wildcats played great defense in the second half, making the Grizzlies work for everything. It would have been enough too, if it weren't for a tough loose ball foul on Bolomboy which sent Jordan Gregory to the foul line with 3.2 seconds left (re: that call... it was an unfortunate call on Weber, but I'm not sure it could have been called any other way).
For Montana, they survive and advance, which is the name of the game. They battled foul trouble for much of the second half, with Mario Dunn fouling out, and Breunig playing much of the end of the game with four fouls.
Still, Breunig was excellent in this game, finishing with 24 points and 12 rebounds. despite getting a ton of Weber attention. His offensive game is so diverse and impressive. He is a star.
Gregory struggled to get many good looks, but it is a testament to him that when he was fouled, down 2, with 3.2 seconds left, there was no doubt as to whether he was going to hit the shots. He did.
Weber State got Montana out of their game - the Grizzlies were 3/17 from downtown, and struggled to get contributions from many of their role players (Brandon Gfeller had 2 points on 0/5 FG), but they come away with the win. That sets up an NAU/Montana game which should be fascinating. They are the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky, and will look to attach each other in different ways. Hopefully it is a worthy follow up to this classic.
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Northern Arizona's win over Northern Colorado didn't generate any style points, but they controlled the game defensively to get the 63-57 victory and advance to the Big Sky semifinals.
UNC had just 0.97 PPP, as they shot 15/39 inside the arc and 5/22 beyond it. Good looks were nowhere to be had, even as they grabbed 17 offensive rebounds. Tim Huskisson had 15 and 10 in his final career game, but Tevin Svihovec was held to 13 points on 4/17 shooting, and the Bears didn't have enough scorers to pick up the slack.
The game was tight the whole way, but it always felt like NAU had things under control. It was a power game, as they had 14 offensive rebounds themselves, consistently looking to get the ball inside. Jordyn Martin had 4 offensive rebounds, but the real star down low was Len Springs, who finished with 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He was a force down low on both ends.
But the star of the second half for NAU, I thought, was Aaseem Dixon, who always seemed to hit a big bucket when the Jacks needed one. He finished the game with 16 points, including hitting four threes.
In the first two games of the day, it was the stars that took over and powered their teams. In this game, it was a full team effort as NAU does what they couldn't do last year - beat Northern Colorado in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament.
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In the nightcap, we got a classic battle between Montana and Weber State, though the refs seemed to do everything they could to slow the flow of the game. 47 fouls were called in this game, many of the ticky tack variety. The topper was in OT, where Ryan Richardson may have slightly bumped Mike Weisner 25 feet from the basket, and was called for his fifth foul. Both coaches got warnings from the refs by the end of the first half, and things were inconsistent throughout. The silver lining is that both teams had plenty of reason to be miffed many times over, so it's not like one team was consistently favored. And that is the last I will say about the reffing.
First, let's talk about Weber State, who played their best game of the year, putting all they had into this one but coming up just short. Jeremy Senglin missed a month with a broken jaw, and played a wonderful game, finishing with 25 points, many of them in big spots. Joel Bolomboy had 18 and 10, and battled Martin Brenig all game.
The Wildcats played great defense in the second half, making the Grizzlies work for everything. It would have been enough too, if it weren't for a tough loose ball foul on Bolomboy which sent Jordan Gregory to the foul line with 3.2 seconds left (re: that call... it was an unfortunate call on Weber, but I'm not sure it could have been called any other way).
For Montana, they survive and advance, which is the name of the game. They battled foul trouble for much of the second half, with Mario Dunn fouling out, and Breunig playing much of the end of the game with four fouls.
Still, Breunig was excellent in this game, finishing with 24 points and 12 rebounds. despite getting a ton of Weber attention. His offensive game is so diverse and impressive. He is a star.
Gregory struggled to get many good looks, but it is a testament to him that when he was fouled, down 2, with 3.2 seconds left, there was no doubt as to whether he was going to hit the shots. He did.
Weber State got Montana out of their game - the Grizzlies were 3/17 from downtown, and struggled to get contributions from many of their role players (Brandon Gfeller had 2 points on 0/5 FG), but they come away with the win. That sets up an NAU/Montana game which should be fascinating. They are the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky, and will look to attach each other in different ways. Hopefully it is a worthy follow up to this classic.
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Eastern Washington and Sacramento State Advance in Big Sky Tournament
Through two games in the Big Sky Tournament, the favorites have advanced on the backs of their stars.
The first game of the day was an entertaining, back and forth affair between Eastern Washington and Idaho. Points came in flurries, with the Eagles eventually prevailing 91-83 to move on.
They were led by Tyler Harvey, who was simply sensational, tying a Big Sky tournament record with 42 points. He was 13/20 from the field, and hit eight threes in the victory. It wasn't a case of Idaho losing track of him either... Harvey hit stepback jumpers with guys in his face. He was essentially unguardable at times, and it was a lot of fun to watch. Mikh McKinney was a rightful MVP winner, but Harvey showed that at his best, he was the toughest guy to guard.
At times, it looked like EWU wasn't going to get enough from everyone else to get the win (other than Harvey, the Eagles were 5/20 from downtown), but they got just enough plays down the stretch. Venky Jois got a lot of defensive attention, but he eventually finished with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Ognjen Miljkovic made enough shots to be dangerous, and finished with 13. Bogdan Bliznyuk made some plays down the stretch. They got just enough from everyone else.
Idaho was almost not going to be denied, as they put on an offensive clinic of their own. The star was Connor Hill, who finished with 23 points and looked like a senior doing everything he could to prolong his career. At times, it looked like his range was unlimited. Perrion Callandret played perhaps the best game of his career, and gives them hope that they will have a great backcourt next year (along with Sekou Wiggs). Ark Mkrtchyan did his thing, as always. In the end, they just couldn't get the stops they needed. They were a fun team to watch, with a lot of offensive talent and the ability to raise their game against good opponents, but they just never found that elite level defensively.
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The Eagles opponent in the semifinals will be Sacramento State, who held off a pesky Portland State team to get the 70-60 win.
Portland State took care of the ball, and they were patient against the Sacramento State zone, but they just couldn't find enough good shots, as they were just 22/61 from the field. The Hornets were very disciplined in the zone, always staying in position and never overpursuing.
On the other end, the Hornets were powered by their starts. Dylan Garrity had 22 points and was 8/8 inside the arc, Mikh McKinney had 24 points, and Cody Demps finished with 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. The trio combined for 55 of the Hornets 70 points, showing why they are arguably the best trio in the Big Sky.
For the Vikings, Gary Winston was excellent, as the senior finished with 26 points, but the Vikings had no balance in this game. Tiegbe Bamba and DaShaun Wiggins both had their moments, but nobody else was able to get anything done against the Hornets zone. In the end, Sac State won this game with their defense, which is not a phrase we would expect to write about them this year.
The Eagles won an entertaining affair, while the Hornets slowly strangled the Vikings into submission. In the end, both styles get you into the Big Sky semifinals. The Eagles win will get a few more headlines because it was more visually appealing, but the Hornets arguably looked better in their victory.
We'll get a matchup that many expected to see in the title game for much of the season. It will be an even matchup, as both teams split in the regular season. It will come down to the stars - Harvey and Jois on one side, McKinney and Garrity on the other. We are all in for a real treat!
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The first game of the day was an entertaining, back and forth affair between Eastern Washington and Idaho. Points came in flurries, with the Eagles eventually prevailing 91-83 to move on.
They were led by Tyler Harvey, who was simply sensational, tying a Big Sky tournament record with 42 points. He was 13/20 from the field, and hit eight threes in the victory. It wasn't a case of Idaho losing track of him either... Harvey hit stepback jumpers with guys in his face. He was essentially unguardable at times, and it was a lot of fun to watch. Mikh McKinney was a rightful MVP winner, but Harvey showed that at his best, he was the toughest guy to guard.
At times, it looked like EWU wasn't going to get enough from everyone else to get the win (other than Harvey, the Eagles were 5/20 from downtown), but they got just enough plays down the stretch. Venky Jois got a lot of defensive attention, but he eventually finished with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Ognjen Miljkovic made enough shots to be dangerous, and finished with 13. Bogdan Bliznyuk made some plays down the stretch. They got just enough from everyone else.
Idaho was almost not going to be denied, as they put on an offensive clinic of their own. The star was Connor Hill, who finished with 23 points and looked like a senior doing everything he could to prolong his career. At times, it looked like his range was unlimited. Perrion Callandret played perhaps the best game of his career, and gives them hope that they will have a great backcourt next year (along with Sekou Wiggs). Ark Mkrtchyan did his thing, as always. In the end, they just couldn't get the stops they needed. They were a fun team to watch, with a lot of offensive talent and the ability to raise their game against good opponents, but they just never found that elite level defensively.
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The Eagles opponent in the semifinals will be Sacramento State, who held off a pesky Portland State team to get the 70-60 win.
Portland State took care of the ball, and they were patient against the Sacramento State zone, but they just couldn't find enough good shots, as they were just 22/61 from the field. The Hornets were very disciplined in the zone, always staying in position and never overpursuing.
On the other end, the Hornets were powered by their starts. Dylan Garrity had 22 points and was 8/8 inside the arc, Mikh McKinney had 24 points, and Cody Demps finished with 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. The trio combined for 55 of the Hornets 70 points, showing why they are arguably the best trio in the Big Sky.
For the Vikings, Gary Winston was excellent, as the senior finished with 26 points, but the Vikings had no balance in this game. Tiegbe Bamba and DaShaun Wiggins both had their moments, but nobody else was able to get anything done against the Hornets zone. In the end, Sac State won this game with their defense, which is not a phrase we would expect to write about them this year.
The Eagles won an entertaining affair, while the Hornets slowly strangled the Vikings into submission. In the end, both styles get you into the Big Sky semifinals. The Eagles win will get a few more headlines because it was more visually appealing, but the Hornets arguably looked better in their victory.
We'll get a matchup that many expected to see in the title game for much of the season. It will be an even matchup, as both teams split in the regular season. It will come down to the stars - Harvey and Jois on one side, McKinney and Garrity on the other. We are all in for a real treat!
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Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Big Sky Tournament Predictions
After looking at all of the teams yesterday, and their respective chances to win the Big Sky tournmament, let's get to something more concrete - previews of the games themselves, along with some predictions.
I'll go into more detail on the quartefinal games, and then give me predictions for the subsequent rounds in less detail (since there's no need to go deep in depth for matchups that may or may not happen). Without further ado...
Quarterfinals
#1 Montana vs #8 Weber State
Previous Meeting(s): Weber won 68-60 in Ogden, Montana won 74-63 in Missoula
Thoughts: Jeremy Senglin missed the second meeting, so Weber State's best chance will be to follow what happened in the first meeting. In that game, Martin Breunig was dominant (31 points on 14/18 shooting), but the Wildcats did a good job containing everyone else. The rest of the team shot 10/37 for 29 points, including a 4/18 effort from Jordan Gregory. Breunig has abused Weber in both games, so they may not have a easy time stopping him. Their best bet may be to just single him up with Joel Bolomboy, and stick to the rest of Montana's shooters as close as they can. A guy like Brandon Gfeller can rack up some points in a hurry if he gets good looks, and that could be the type of thing Weber State can't come back from.
The bigger factor, I think, will be the other end of the court, where Weber State doesn't figure to have a ton of success against the Montana defense. Nobody has been better at forcing turnovers in the Big Sky, but WSU has been the second most generous team in giving them up. Getting Senglin back could help that, but he's also had a tendency to turn it over. As I mentioned yesterday, the easiest way to beat Montana could be to get Breunig into foul trouble, and Bolomboy has had some success drawing fouls this year (he takes over 5.5 FTs per game). However, I just don't see the Wildcats getting enough open looks against the Griz, especially since this game is in Missoula.
Montana 71, Weber State 60
#4 Northern Arizona vs #5 Northern Colorado
Previous Meeting(s): NAU won 65-60 in Flagstaff, UNC won 76-74 in Greeley
Thoughts: I watched these two teams in Greeley a couple weeks ago and it was a great game, so it will be fun to watch again. When UNC has the ball, it will come down to who is able to play more to their strengths. NAU doesn't give you good looks in the paint, and they typically rebound the ball well. On the other hand, UNC excels in the midrange and using their quickness to get good shots at the rim, and they can be terrors on the offensive glass. In Greeley, they snagged 14 offensive rebounds, which Jack Murphy believed to be the difference in the game. In the first meeting, they only had six. That is a key thing to watch.
On the other end, The Bears have had trouble containing Kris Yanku, and that will likely continue. UNC is at its best with either Jordan Wilson or Cody Spence out there (or even both, at times), but both guys struggle with the height of Yanku. On the other hand, someone like Tevin Svihovec doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of him. If the Bears collapse on him in the paint, Yanku has the vision and passing skills to take advantage, with shooters on the outside, and guys capable of finishing strong at the rim. It will be a pick your poison type of scenario for UNC, and I expect Yanku to put up big numbers either way.
This should be a great game, as both teams are capable of going on runs and winning this game. However, I trust NAU just a little bit more.
Northern Arizona 73, Northern Colorado 69
#2 Eastern Washington vs #7 Idaho
Previous Meetings(s): EWU won 89-86 in Moscow, and 98-95 in Cheney
Thoughts: As you can tell from the previous game scores, we should be in for a fun, fast paced game. Where teams like Northern Colorado or Sacramento State are great offensively but don't try to push the pace, both the Eagles and Vandals are excellent scoring the ball AND like to push it as fast as they can. Plus, they can have their defensive struggles at times as well (though one more than the other).
The Vandals keeping both meetings close points to the fact that they can win this game, but the Eagles are clearly the favorite as they have more consistently played at a high level. EWU is primarily seen a three-point bombing team, but they have been better this year when they've gotten the ball inside, with guys like Venky Jois and Bogdan Bliznyuk being elite scorers down low. Idaho is also not intimidating down low either, as while guys like Bira Seck and Ark Mkrtychyan are good players, they aren't rim protectors. Look for EWU to get the ball inside as much as they can.
When Idaho has the ball, they need to be hitting outside shots, especially against an Eagles front line that has the best shot blockers in the conference. Fortunately for them, they are certainly capable of doing that, as they shot 40.9% from downtown during Big Sky play, third in the conference. The Vandals aren't going to force many turnovers, but they should look for easy options off of EWU misses, as easy baskets will be important. However, I'm not sure they'll get enough stops to be able to keep up.
Eastern Washington 88, Idaho 83
#3 Sacramento State vs #6 Portland State
Previous Meeting(s): Sac State won 64-60 in Sacramento, and 73-60 in Portland
Thoughts: The availability of Braxton Tucker will be important here, as he scored 18 in the first meeting, but missed the second game. A front line with Tucker and Tiegbe Bamba could be a huge weapon for the Vikings. Collin Spickerman can do some nice things for the Vikings (namely, block shots and crash the offensive glass), but the other two guys are the front line scorers. Tucker has missed the last three games with a knee contusion, and should probably be considered questionable. Another key for them is to take care of the basketball. PSU has been good at protecting the ball, but have struggled against Sac State, where they have turned it over 17 times in both meetings. There are scoring opportunities to be had against the Hornets, but they are also good at forcing TOs, so that will be a key.
When Sac State has the ball, they are an interesting team in that they have the best three-point shooting team in the conference, but they don't look to take a ton of threes. Everything starts with Mikh McKinney, who does it all for the Hornets. McKinney will get his, but they can't let him get great looks for everyone else. The Vikings aren't going to force a lot of turnovers, so it comes down to closing in on shooters such as Dylan Garrity, and cutting off the penetration of McKinney and Cody Demps. All three guys are capable of scoring 20.
In the end, if I was a betting man, I think the most likely scenario is that Sac State wins a close game. However, I think at least one of the lower seeds win (with how even this league has been all year), and I think this is the most likely game. If PSU can take care of the ball (again, has been an issue against the Hornets), they can score enough to win this game. It should be fun.
Portland State 69, Sacramento State 68
Semifinals
#1 Montana vs #4 Northern Arizona
This would be a slugfest of a semifinal, featuring the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. During their only meeting in late January, NAU scored 0.89 PPP, while Montana mustered 1.00 PPP thanks to 31 points from Jordan Gregory. NAU has the horses down low (including Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin) to slow down Martin Breunig, but Montana has Mario Dunn to help contain Kris Yanku. Once again, I like the home court to triumph, and I'd take Montana.
#2 Eastern Washington vs #6 Portland State
These teams split during the regular season, so it's a closer game than the seeds might show. However, Venky Jois missed the second meeting (when PSU won), and we are starting to realize he may be the Eagles most important player with his offensive scoring and shot blocking ability. That would make the difference in the third meeting, and I like Eastern Washington in this theoretical matchup.
Championship
#1 Montana vs #2 Eastern Washington
In terms of entertainment factor, this is probably our dream finals matchup. The two teams split their meetings, winning on each other's home courts. As mentioned, Montana is the favorite with their home-court advantage, but EWU is a team that can combat the strengths of the Grizzlies. Venky Jois is down low, and he bothered Breunig in their first matchup (in fairness, Breunig was a force in the rematch). The other thing is that, as we've mentioned, Montana excels at forcing turnovers, but EWU is predicated on taking care of the ball... Their 19 turnovers in the two meetings combined is not bad. So, they can score on the Grizzlies.
However, I just can't shake the feeling that Montana is the best team in the Big Sky right now. Jordan Gregory is the go to guy late in games, and it's nice to have that pecking order. We've talked about Breunig. Mario Dunn could be a future defensive POY. Guys like Brandon Gfeller, Fabijan Krslovic, and Mike Weisner all fill their roles. Everything is coming up Montana for me, and that's why I think they will be the Big Sky champions.
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I'll go into more detail on the quartefinal games, and then give me predictions for the subsequent rounds in less detail (since there's no need to go deep in depth for matchups that may or may not happen). Without further ado...
Quarterfinals
#1 Montana vs #8 Weber State
Previous Meeting(s): Weber won 68-60 in Ogden, Montana won 74-63 in Missoula
Thoughts: Jeremy Senglin missed the second meeting, so Weber State's best chance will be to follow what happened in the first meeting. In that game, Martin Breunig was dominant (31 points on 14/18 shooting), but the Wildcats did a good job containing everyone else. The rest of the team shot 10/37 for 29 points, including a 4/18 effort from Jordan Gregory. Breunig has abused Weber in both games, so they may not have a easy time stopping him. Their best bet may be to just single him up with Joel Bolomboy, and stick to the rest of Montana's shooters as close as they can. A guy like Brandon Gfeller can rack up some points in a hurry if he gets good looks, and that could be the type of thing Weber State can't come back from.
The bigger factor, I think, will be the other end of the court, where Weber State doesn't figure to have a ton of success against the Montana defense. Nobody has been better at forcing turnovers in the Big Sky, but WSU has been the second most generous team in giving them up. Getting Senglin back could help that, but he's also had a tendency to turn it over. As I mentioned yesterday, the easiest way to beat Montana could be to get Breunig into foul trouble, and Bolomboy has had some success drawing fouls this year (he takes over 5.5 FTs per game). However, I just don't see the Wildcats getting enough open looks against the Griz, especially since this game is in Missoula.
Montana 71, Weber State 60
#4 Northern Arizona vs #5 Northern Colorado
Previous Meeting(s): NAU won 65-60 in Flagstaff, UNC won 76-74 in Greeley
Thoughts: I watched these two teams in Greeley a couple weeks ago and it was a great game, so it will be fun to watch again. When UNC has the ball, it will come down to who is able to play more to their strengths. NAU doesn't give you good looks in the paint, and they typically rebound the ball well. On the other hand, UNC excels in the midrange and using their quickness to get good shots at the rim, and they can be terrors on the offensive glass. In Greeley, they snagged 14 offensive rebounds, which Jack Murphy believed to be the difference in the game. In the first meeting, they only had six. That is a key thing to watch.
On the other end, The Bears have had trouble containing Kris Yanku, and that will likely continue. UNC is at its best with either Jordan Wilson or Cody Spence out there (or even both, at times), but both guys struggle with the height of Yanku. On the other hand, someone like Tevin Svihovec doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of him. If the Bears collapse on him in the paint, Yanku has the vision and passing skills to take advantage, with shooters on the outside, and guys capable of finishing strong at the rim. It will be a pick your poison type of scenario for UNC, and I expect Yanku to put up big numbers either way.
This should be a great game, as both teams are capable of going on runs and winning this game. However, I trust NAU just a little bit more.
Northern Arizona 73, Northern Colorado 69
#2 Eastern Washington vs #7 Idaho
Previous Meetings(s): EWU won 89-86 in Moscow, and 98-95 in Cheney
Thoughts: As you can tell from the previous game scores, we should be in for a fun, fast paced game. Where teams like Northern Colorado or Sacramento State are great offensively but don't try to push the pace, both the Eagles and Vandals are excellent scoring the ball AND like to push it as fast as they can. Plus, they can have their defensive struggles at times as well (though one more than the other).
The Vandals keeping both meetings close points to the fact that they can win this game, but the Eagles are clearly the favorite as they have more consistently played at a high level. EWU is primarily seen a three-point bombing team, but they have been better this year when they've gotten the ball inside, with guys like Venky Jois and Bogdan Bliznyuk being elite scorers down low. Idaho is also not intimidating down low either, as while guys like Bira Seck and Ark Mkrtychyan are good players, they aren't rim protectors. Look for EWU to get the ball inside as much as they can.
When Idaho has the ball, they need to be hitting outside shots, especially against an Eagles front line that has the best shot blockers in the conference. Fortunately for them, they are certainly capable of doing that, as they shot 40.9% from downtown during Big Sky play, third in the conference. The Vandals aren't going to force many turnovers, but they should look for easy options off of EWU misses, as easy baskets will be important. However, I'm not sure they'll get enough stops to be able to keep up.
Eastern Washington 88, Idaho 83
#3 Sacramento State vs #6 Portland State
Previous Meeting(s): Sac State won 64-60 in Sacramento, and 73-60 in Portland
Thoughts: The availability of Braxton Tucker will be important here, as he scored 18 in the first meeting, but missed the second game. A front line with Tucker and Tiegbe Bamba could be a huge weapon for the Vikings. Collin Spickerman can do some nice things for the Vikings (namely, block shots and crash the offensive glass), but the other two guys are the front line scorers. Tucker has missed the last three games with a knee contusion, and should probably be considered questionable. Another key for them is to take care of the basketball. PSU has been good at protecting the ball, but have struggled against Sac State, where they have turned it over 17 times in both meetings. There are scoring opportunities to be had against the Hornets, but they are also good at forcing TOs, so that will be a key.
When Sac State has the ball, they are an interesting team in that they have the best three-point shooting team in the conference, but they don't look to take a ton of threes. Everything starts with Mikh McKinney, who does it all for the Hornets. McKinney will get his, but they can't let him get great looks for everyone else. The Vikings aren't going to force a lot of turnovers, so it comes down to closing in on shooters such as Dylan Garrity, and cutting off the penetration of McKinney and Cody Demps. All three guys are capable of scoring 20.
In the end, if I was a betting man, I think the most likely scenario is that Sac State wins a close game. However, I think at least one of the lower seeds win (with how even this league has been all year), and I think this is the most likely game. If PSU can take care of the ball (again, has been an issue against the Hornets), they can score enough to win this game. It should be fun.
Portland State 69, Sacramento State 68
Semifinals
#1 Montana vs #4 Northern Arizona
This would be a slugfest of a semifinal, featuring the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. During their only meeting in late January, NAU scored 0.89 PPP, while Montana mustered 1.00 PPP thanks to 31 points from Jordan Gregory. NAU has the horses down low (including Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin) to slow down Martin Breunig, but Montana has Mario Dunn to help contain Kris Yanku. Once again, I like the home court to triumph, and I'd take Montana.
#2 Eastern Washington vs #6 Portland State
These teams split during the regular season, so it's a closer game than the seeds might show. However, Venky Jois missed the second meeting (when PSU won), and we are starting to realize he may be the Eagles most important player with his offensive scoring and shot blocking ability. That would make the difference in the third meeting, and I like Eastern Washington in this theoretical matchup.
Championship
#1 Montana vs #2 Eastern Washington
In terms of entertainment factor, this is probably our dream finals matchup. The two teams split their meetings, winning on each other's home courts. As mentioned, Montana is the favorite with their home-court advantage, but EWU is a team that can combat the strengths of the Grizzlies. Venky Jois is down low, and he bothered Breunig in their first matchup (in fairness, Breunig was a force in the rematch). The other thing is that, as we've mentioned, Montana excels at forcing turnovers, but EWU is predicated on taking care of the ball... Their 19 turnovers in the two meetings combined is not bad. So, they can score on the Grizzlies.
However, I just can't shake the feeling that Montana is the best team in the Big Sky right now. Jordan Gregory is the go to guy late in games, and it's nice to have that pecking order. We've talked about Breunig. Mario Dunn could be a future defensive POY. Guys like Brandon Gfeller, Fabijan Krslovic, and Mike Weisner all fill their roles. Everything is coming up Montana for me, and that's why I think they will be the Big Sky champions.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Big Sky Tournament Teams - Quick Preview
Before we get to the previews of the games themselves, let's take a quick rundown of each of the teams, and why they could either win the whole tournament, or lose in the first round. It's a wide open race this year, which should make it fun!
#1 Montana
Why they can win it: For one, they have home court advantage. The Grizzlies were 8-1 at home during Big Sky play, losing just to EWU on February 5th. The Grizzlies are also playing the best basketball of anyuone in the Big Sky the past few weeks... after that loss to EWU on 2/5, they went 7-1, with the only loss coming in double OT at Idaho (a game they had a 97.2% chance to win with 3:24 left).
They are also the best defensive team in the Big Sky, at 0.998 PPP during conference play. Their 0.12 PPP margin in Big Sky play is easily the best in the conference. Tying it all together, the Griz have a luxury in Martin Breunig that is rare in the Big Sky - a big man with a solid offensive skill set. He was a unanimous first-teamer and you could easily make the case for him as Big Sky POY.
Let me put it this way... If Sac State had finished with a win and hosted, Montana still might have been the favorite to win the conference. As it is, they are clearly the favorite going into things. In early February, I said Montana was a definite contender (unintentionally angering Sac State fans in the process), but they came on stronger than I ever expected.
Why they can lose in round 1: In two of their four Big Sky losses, they had big leads late, and lost it at the end. Such that that is a trend, they could struggle to hold onto leads.With it happening in just two games, it would be far too strong to say they have a tendency to blow late leads, but it's out there. The biggest concern for them, I think, is that Martin Breunig can get into foul trouble. In both of the aforementioned games, he fouled out. While Jordan Gregory is very good, and they have role players that can do some nice things, everything is harder when Breunig is not out there. Losing him to foul trouble early in a game could be the clearest path to a loss for them.
#2 Eastern Washington
Why they can win it: The Eagles pose the best chance of beating Montana, as they did it once and almost did it again. The Grizzlies have been great at forcing turnovers, but EWU can take care of the ball, and Venky Jois can match up with Breunig down low. That would be a heck of a title game!
The Eagles have shown they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Sky, as they had some big road wins earlier in the year, and have looked downright unstoppable offensively at times. We all know about Tyler Harvey and Venky Jois, but Bogdan Bliznyk is a legit weapon, Drew Brandon does a bit of everything, and Parker Kelly can shoot. Even Felix Van Hofe has hit some big shots. They are tough to defend because they almost always have five guys out there that can score.
Why they can lose in round 1: A lot of this has been due to injuries at times, but they haven't quite seemed to be playing to their peak over the second half of conference play. Save for a date with MSU on 2/26, all of their other last eight games were either within four points or went to OT. That shows some close losses, but an elite team should be able to blow out a couple of those teams. As always, the key for them is defense. They finished fifth at 1.08 PPP allowed in conference play, but teams shot 42% from downtown against them. If their own shots aren't falling, they need to be able to rely on the D to pick up the slack for a while before the offense gets rolling again. It remains to be seen if they can do that.
#3 Sacramento State
Why they can win it: Until the last week, they looked like they would be the hosts of the tournament, so obviously they have the talent to be near the top. They have been great in close games, and while it's debatable if that is a repeatable skill, all the checkpoints are there for them to be good late in games, including experienced guards, a big time shooter in Dylan Garrity, the Big Sky POY Mikh McKinney, and a worthy third fiddle in Cody Demps.
McKinney is the biggest reason to think they can win... no matter if you think he should or shouldn't have been the POY, he has been great all year. He can shoot, drive to the hole, find his teammates, and make plays on the defensive side of the court. He can do it all, and that elite player gives the Hornets a shot every time.
Why they can lose in round 1: In the last section, I wrote about success and experience in close games, but that may have made them a little overrated at times, as winning close games can statistically be fluky. For all the hope that Eric Stuteville would provide consistent inside presence, that hasn't really happened this year, which leaves them too reliant on their guards. That can also be a problem defensively, as guys like Nick Hornsby and Zach Mills are good players, but not really great interior forces defensively. The other factor for the Hornets is the way the season ended... They needed one win in the final two games to host the tournament, and plans were in place to convert the rec center on campus for the Big Sky tournament - and then things came crashing down. Will there be a hangover for their confidence?
#4 Northern Arizona
Why they can win it: After Montana, they have the best defense in the conference, and the ability to get stops seems to translate better to tournaments when scouting time may be at a minimum. They are anchored by Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin, but they have several big bodies down low.
Offensively, Kris Yanku is playing great basketball, and nobody is better than him at driving and dishing, or driving to finish. He has a great understanding of pace and angles, which allows him to get to the rim almost at any time. Late in a close game, he is the best weapon in the conference. Flanking him are shooters Quinton Upshur and Aaseem Dixon. Those two guys struggled a bit earlier in the year, but have played better in the second half of the Big Sky slate.
Why they can lose in round 1: While Yanku is a great shot creator, the offense can stagnant a bit if he is not out there, as Upshur and Dixon can be limited at times in creating shots for themselves or offense for others. If the outside shots aren't falling, they can struggle to score. Another issue is depth... They only go 8 deep, and don't really like to play many guards. It could be easy to wear down. Last, they always seem to have trouble with UNC... they lost to them last year in the opening round, and lost to them in Greeley just a couple weeks ago. It's a tough opener if the Bears are playing well, which they always seem to do in the Big Sky tournament.
#5 Northern Colorado
Why they can win it: They have tons of depth and balance, meaning they could be able to weather the storm better than some if their main guys struggle. Tevin Svihovec was the only member of the team to get into postseason awards but guys like Cam Michael and Tim Huskisson have the ability to carry the offense for stretches. Another thing is that their defense has been bad this year, but they have guys like Cody Spence and Jordan Wilson that can pressure you for 94 feet, which places extra pressure on defense, especially in a tournament when teams might be a little tighter.
Their offense can be as explosive as anyone in the conference, and if some of their role players get hot for a couple games, they could carry the momentum from it right into the NCAA Tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: The balance is great, but they don't necessarily have that one guy that can carry them and get them a good shot when it's needed. Tevin Svihovec is that guy at times, but you don't necessarily trust him as much as guys like Jordan Gregory, Tyler Harvey, Miki McKinney, or Kris Yanku. But really, the biggest worry here is defense, just like always. In terms of PPP allowed, they were the second worst defensive team in the country. It's hard to win three games in three days like that.
#6 Portland State
Why they can win it: In conference play, they beat EWU on the road... and also lost at home in double digits on three occasions. Point being - they are unpredictable. On any given night, they can beat anyone, which can make them dangerous. If Braxton Tucker plays (still trying to find out), their front line is as explosive as anyone, and a backcourt with Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins can score baskets. With a trio of senior guards, they take good care of the basketball and don't give opponents extra possessions. Their talent level, when all healthy and playing right, gives them the ceiling of a team that can win this tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: As mentioned above, they are very unpredictable, and prone to games where they just don't seem to come out and play. This is not just a problem for this year's team, as it seems to have happened previous years as well. If they don't play their best, they will lose in the opening round to Sac State. Their defense is not the gaping liability it has been in some past years, but it's still not one you trust to get a stop when you need. Also, unlike previous years, their offense has been merely average in Big Sky play. It's easier to see a path for teams like UNC or Idaho in the bottom half of the bracket to make a run than it is to see the Vikings string three straight great games together.
#7 Idaho
Why they can win it: Like PSU, the Vandals are a team with a high ceiling - they beat Montana, Sac State, and almost beat EWU twice. They are explosive offensively when things are working, from Mike Scott creating shots for himself and others, Connor Hill as one of the best shooters in the conference, and Sekou Wiggs getting to the foul line. They are never out of a game because of how well they can score the basketball.
They also don't get intimidated by anyone. They averaged almost 90 PPG against EWU, arguably should have beat Sac State on the road, and of course had that great comeback against Montana. They don't have to just believe they can beat the best teams in the conference - they know they can. That counts for a lot.
Why they can lose in round 1: Despite all those impressive showings against good teams, they were a Southern Utah win over Portland State on the final day of the regular season away from missing the Big Sky tournament. To call them inconsistent would be an insult to the word "inconsistent." They lack rim protectors so they struggle stopping teams inside, which could lead to a big day from Venky Jois in the tournament opening round. I am as fascinated by them as anyone - I can't wait to see which Idaho team shows up, because they could crash the party,. They could also go out in a fiery crash.
#8 Weber State
Why they can win it: Things have not come together for the Wildcats this year, but it's not like they don't have talent. They were the preseason pick to win the conference, and all those pieces that made voters vote for them are still there. If Jeremy Senglin is able to come back and play (which seems like a safe bet), that's a huge boost for the Wildcats and their offense. When healthy, he's their best offensive guy, and their best chance for an outlier performance. Weber also has Joel Bolomboy, who still has the ability to take over games with his rebounding and shot blocking. For all of Weber's struggles, they finished third in the conference in defensive deficiency.
Plus, let's not remember that Weber State is the defending champions. Though they are missing a lot of those guys that made it happen, many in the rotation played huge minutes for a title winning team last season. Last, for what it's worth, they did beat Montana earlier this year... granted, it was two months ago.
Why they can lose in round 1: For one thing, they are playing Montana at Montana. They are seven point underdogs, and even that line feels a little bit low to me. When the two teams met in late February, the Grizzlies won by 11. They have struggled to score the basketball even when Senglin has been healthy, and the finished eighth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency. Often, when underdog teams win games they aren't expected to, it happens through shooting. However, Weber was 11th in the Big Sky, shooting just 34.5% from downtown during conference play. If they get hot and shoot the lights out for three straight games, it won't be something that could have been expected.
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#1 Montana
Why they can win it: For one, they have home court advantage. The Grizzlies were 8-1 at home during Big Sky play, losing just to EWU on February 5th. The Grizzlies are also playing the best basketball of anyuone in the Big Sky the past few weeks... after that loss to EWU on 2/5, they went 7-1, with the only loss coming in double OT at Idaho (a game they had a 97.2% chance to win with 3:24 left).
They are also the best defensive team in the Big Sky, at 0.998 PPP during conference play. Their 0.12 PPP margin in Big Sky play is easily the best in the conference. Tying it all together, the Griz have a luxury in Martin Breunig that is rare in the Big Sky - a big man with a solid offensive skill set. He was a unanimous first-teamer and you could easily make the case for him as Big Sky POY.
Let me put it this way... If Sac State had finished with a win and hosted, Montana still might have been the favorite to win the conference. As it is, they are clearly the favorite going into things. In early February, I said Montana was a definite contender (unintentionally angering Sac State fans in the process), but they came on stronger than I ever expected.
Why they can lose in round 1: In two of their four Big Sky losses, they had big leads late, and lost it at the end. Such that that is a trend, they could struggle to hold onto leads.With it happening in just two games, it would be far too strong to say they have a tendency to blow late leads, but it's out there. The biggest concern for them, I think, is that Martin Breunig can get into foul trouble. In both of the aforementioned games, he fouled out. While Jordan Gregory is very good, and they have role players that can do some nice things, everything is harder when Breunig is not out there. Losing him to foul trouble early in a game could be the clearest path to a loss for them.
#2 Eastern Washington
Why they can win it: The Eagles pose the best chance of beating Montana, as they did it once and almost did it again. The Grizzlies have been great at forcing turnovers, but EWU can take care of the ball, and Venky Jois can match up with Breunig down low. That would be a heck of a title game!
The Eagles have shown they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Sky, as they had some big road wins earlier in the year, and have looked downright unstoppable offensively at times. We all know about Tyler Harvey and Venky Jois, but Bogdan Bliznyk is a legit weapon, Drew Brandon does a bit of everything, and Parker Kelly can shoot. Even Felix Van Hofe has hit some big shots. They are tough to defend because they almost always have five guys out there that can score.
Why they can lose in round 1: A lot of this has been due to injuries at times, but they haven't quite seemed to be playing to their peak over the second half of conference play. Save for a date with MSU on 2/26, all of their other last eight games were either within four points or went to OT. That shows some close losses, but an elite team should be able to blow out a couple of those teams. As always, the key for them is defense. They finished fifth at 1.08 PPP allowed in conference play, but teams shot 42% from downtown against them. If their own shots aren't falling, they need to be able to rely on the D to pick up the slack for a while before the offense gets rolling again. It remains to be seen if they can do that.
#3 Sacramento State
Why they can win it: Until the last week, they looked like they would be the hosts of the tournament, so obviously they have the talent to be near the top. They have been great in close games, and while it's debatable if that is a repeatable skill, all the checkpoints are there for them to be good late in games, including experienced guards, a big time shooter in Dylan Garrity, the Big Sky POY Mikh McKinney, and a worthy third fiddle in Cody Demps.
McKinney is the biggest reason to think they can win... no matter if you think he should or shouldn't have been the POY, he has been great all year. He can shoot, drive to the hole, find his teammates, and make plays on the defensive side of the court. He can do it all, and that elite player gives the Hornets a shot every time.
Why they can lose in round 1: In the last section, I wrote about success and experience in close games, but that may have made them a little overrated at times, as winning close games can statistically be fluky. For all the hope that Eric Stuteville would provide consistent inside presence, that hasn't really happened this year, which leaves them too reliant on their guards. That can also be a problem defensively, as guys like Nick Hornsby and Zach Mills are good players, but not really great interior forces defensively. The other factor for the Hornets is the way the season ended... They needed one win in the final two games to host the tournament, and plans were in place to convert the rec center on campus for the Big Sky tournament - and then things came crashing down. Will there be a hangover for their confidence?
#4 Northern Arizona
Why they can win it: After Montana, they have the best defense in the conference, and the ability to get stops seems to translate better to tournaments when scouting time may be at a minimum. They are anchored by Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin, but they have several big bodies down low.
Offensively, Kris Yanku is playing great basketball, and nobody is better than him at driving and dishing, or driving to finish. He has a great understanding of pace and angles, which allows him to get to the rim almost at any time. Late in a close game, he is the best weapon in the conference. Flanking him are shooters Quinton Upshur and Aaseem Dixon. Those two guys struggled a bit earlier in the year, but have played better in the second half of the Big Sky slate.
Why they can lose in round 1: While Yanku is a great shot creator, the offense can stagnant a bit if he is not out there, as Upshur and Dixon can be limited at times in creating shots for themselves or offense for others. If the outside shots aren't falling, they can struggle to score. Another issue is depth... They only go 8 deep, and don't really like to play many guards. It could be easy to wear down. Last, they always seem to have trouble with UNC... they lost to them last year in the opening round, and lost to them in Greeley just a couple weeks ago. It's a tough opener if the Bears are playing well, which they always seem to do in the Big Sky tournament.
#5 Northern Colorado
Why they can win it: They have tons of depth and balance, meaning they could be able to weather the storm better than some if their main guys struggle. Tevin Svihovec was the only member of the team to get into postseason awards but guys like Cam Michael and Tim Huskisson have the ability to carry the offense for stretches. Another thing is that their defense has been bad this year, but they have guys like Cody Spence and Jordan Wilson that can pressure you for 94 feet, which places extra pressure on defense, especially in a tournament when teams might be a little tighter.
Their offense can be as explosive as anyone in the conference, and if some of their role players get hot for a couple games, they could carry the momentum from it right into the NCAA Tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: The balance is great, but they don't necessarily have that one guy that can carry them and get them a good shot when it's needed. Tevin Svihovec is that guy at times, but you don't necessarily trust him as much as guys like Jordan Gregory, Tyler Harvey, Miki McKinney, or Kris Yanku. But really, the biggest worry here is defense, just like always. In terms of PPP allowed, they were the second worst defensive team in the country. It's hard to win three games in three days like that.
#6 Portland State
Why they can win it: In conference play, they beat EWU on the road... and also lost at home in double digits on three occasions. Point being - they are unpredictable. On any given night, they can beat anyone, which can make them dangerous. If Braxton Tucker plays (still trying to find out), their front line is as explosive as anyone, and a backcourt with Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins can score baskets. With a trio of senior guards, they take good care of the basketball and don't give opponents extra possessions. Their talent level, when all healthy and playing right, gives them the ceiling of a team that can win this tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: As mentioned above, they are very unpredictable, and prone to games where they just don't seem to come out and play. This is not just a problem for this year's team, as it seems to have happened previous years as well. If they don't play their best, they will lose in the opening round to Sac State. Their defense is not the gaping liability it has been in some past years, but it's still not one you trust to get a stop when you need. Also, unlike previous years, their offense has been merely average in Big Sky play. It's easier to see a path for teams like UNC or Idaho in the bottom half of the bracket to make a run than it is to see the Vikings string three straight great games together.
#7 Idaho
Why they can win it: Like PSU, the Vandals are a team with a high ceiling - they beat Montana, Sac State, and almost beat EWU twice. They are explosive offensively when things are working, from Mike Scott creating shots for himself and others, Connor Hill as one of the best shooters in the conference, and Sekou Wiggs getting to the foul line. They are never out of a game because of how well they can score the basketball.
They also don't get intimidated by anyone. They averaged almost 90 PPG against EWU, arguably should have beat Sac State on the road, and of course had that great comeback against Montana. They don't have to just believe they can beat the best teams in the conference - they know they can. That counts for a lot.
Why they can lose in round 1: Despite all those impressive showings against good teams, they were a Southern Utah win over Portland State on the final day of the regular season away from missing the Big Sky tournament. To call them inconsistent would be an insult to the word "inconsistent." They lack rim protectors so they struggle stopping teams inside, which could lead to a big day from Venky Jois in the tournament opening round. I am as fascinated by them as anyone - I can't wait to see which Idaho team shows up, because they could crash the party,. They could also go out in a fiery crash.
#8 Weber State
Why they can win it: Things have not come together for the Wildcats this year, but it's not like they don't have talent. They were the preseason pick to win the conference, and all those pieces that made voters vote for them are still there. If Jeremy Senglin is able to come back and play (which seems like a safe bet), that's a huge boost for the Wildcats and their offense. When healthy, he's their best offensive guy, and their best chance for an outlier performance. Weber also has Joel Bolomboy, who still has the ability to take over games with his rebounding and shot blocking. For all of Weber's struggles, they finished third in the conference in defensive deficiency.
Plus, let's not remember that Weber State is the defending champions. Though they are missing a lot of those guys that made it happen, many in the rotation played huge minutes for a title winning team last season. Last, for what it's worth, they did beat Montana earlier this year... granted, it was two months ago.
Why they can lose in round 1: For one thing, they are playing Montana at Montana. They are seven point underdogs, and even that line feels a little bit low to me. When the two teams met in late February, the Grizzlies won by 11. They have struggled to score the basketball even when Senglin has been healthy, and the finished eighth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency. Often, when underdog teams win games they aren't expected to, it happens through shooting. However, Weber was 11th in the Big Sky, shooting just 34.5% from downtown during conference play. If they get hot and shoot the lights out for three straight games, it won't be something that could have been expected.
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Big Sky Awards Announced
As you know by now, Montana and Eastern Washington are the co-champions in the Big Sky, with Montana earning the right to host thanks to a tiebreaker victories. Sac State's hearts were broken by a Kris Yanku runner, ending their dreams of hosting the tournament.
At the back end of the bracket, Weber State and Idaho did what they could to lose their spots by losing on Saturday, but got bailed out when Portland State went on the road and beat Southern Utah, saving a spot for both the Wildcats and Thunderbirds. It was a great Saturday of basketball!
The first-round matchups are:
(1) Montana vs (8) Weber State
(2) Eastern Washington vs (7) Idaho
(3) Sacramento State vs (6) Portland State
(4) Northern Arizona vs (5) Northern Colorado
That is a great slate of matchups! I will have much more to come this week in terms of previews and predictions, I am just getting back into the swing of things after being out of town all weekend.
The other news was the release of the awards!
Here is the first-team Big Sky:
- Mikh McKinney of Sacramento State
- Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington
- Martin Breunig of Montana
- Venky Jois of Eastern Washington
- Kris Yanku of Northern Arizona
- Jordan Gregory of Montana
McKinney was the Player of the Year, in a mild surprise (I thought it may be Breunig because of Montana's spot in the standings). On first thought, without digging into things too much, I can't disagree with any of the choices, including the pick of McKinney as POY. That is very well deserved! I will give more thoughts and awards and all-conference teams next week once the conference tourney talk dies down.
The second-team Big Sky:
- Connor Hill of Idaho
- Mike Scott of Idaho
- Joel Bolomboy of Weber State
- Dylan Garrity of Sacramento State
- Quinton Upshur of Northern Arizona
Honorable-Mention Big Sky:
- Jeffrey Solarin of Idaho State
- Drew Brandon of Eastern Washington
- Chris Hansen of Idaho State
- Mario Dunn of Montana
- Aaseem Dixon of Northern Arizona
- Tevin Svihovec of Northern Colorado
- DaShaun Wiggins of Portland State
- Jeremy Senglin of Weber State
In the other awards, Bogdan Blizynuk was the Freshman of the Year, which was an easy choice. Jordyn Martin was the Defensive POY, which was a little surprise because he doesn't block shots (and numbers usually win awards), but it was a very good choice, as he anchors their D. Marcus Colbert was the Top Reserve, another good choice.
Jim Hayford and Brian Katz shared Coach of the Year honors. I can't argue with those guys, and I couldn't have argued if Travis DeCuire or Nick Robinson had won the award either, as all of those guys were worthy.
Any thoughts?
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At the back end of the bracket, Weber State and Idaho did what they could to lose their spots by losing on Saturday, but got bailed out when Portland State went on the road and beat Southern Utah, saving a spot for both the Wildcats and Thunderbirds. It was a great Saturday of basketball!
The first-round matchups are:
(1) Montana vs (8) Weber State
(2) Eastern Washington vs (7) Idaho
(3) Sacramento State vs (6) Portland State
(4) Northern Arizona vs (5) Northern Colorado
That is a great slate of matchups! I will have much more to come this week in terms of previews and predictions, I am just getting back into the swing of things after being out of town all weekend.
The other news was the release of the awards!
Here is the first-team Big Sky:
- Mikh McKinney of Sacramento State
- Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington
- Martin Breunig of Montana
- Venky Jois of Eastern Washington
- Kris Yanku of Northern Arizona
- Jordan Gregory of Montana
McKinney was the Player of the Year, in a mild surprise (I thought it may be Breunig because of Montana's spot in the standings). On first thought, without digging into things too much, I can't disagree with any of the choices, including the pick of McKinney as POY. That is very well deserved! I will give more thoughts and awards and all-conference teams next week once the conference tourney talk dies down.
The second-team Big Sky:
- Connor Hill of Idaho
- Mike Scott of Idaho
- Joel Bolomboy of Weber State
- Dylan Garrity of Sacramento State
- Quinton Upshur of Northern Arizona
Honorable-Mention Big Sky:
- Jeffrey Solarin of Idaho State
- Drew Brandon of Eastern Washington
- Chris Hansen of Idaho State
- Mario Dunn of Montana
- Aaseem Dixon of Northern Arizona
- Tevin Svihovec of Northern Colorado
- DaShaun Wiggins of Portland State
- Jeremy Senglin of Weber State
In the other awards, Bogdan Blizynuk was the Freshman of the Year, which was an easy choice. Jordyn Martin was the Defensive POY, which was a little surprise because he doesn't block shots (and numbers usually win awards), but it was a very good choice, as he anchors their D. Marcus Colbert was the Top Reserve, another good choice.
Jim Hayford and Brian Katz shared Coach of the Year honors. I can't argue with those guys, and I couldn't have argued if Travis DeCuire or Nick Robinson had won the award either, as all of those guys were worthy.
Any thoughts?
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Friday, March 6, 2015
Big Sky Tiebreaker Scenarios
There are many, many scenarios in the Big Sky for Saturday, with a lot of different ways teams could be seeded in one place or another. I'm not going to try and hit on all of them, but I'll try to hit the main things that can happen.
One note of caution: Don't take this as Gospel truth. Obviously, I'm trying to be as accurate as possible, and not state anything incorrectly, but with so many scenarios, feel free to double check my work!
As far as I can tell, the race to host the conference tournament is down to three teams after Sacramento State's loss on Thursday - the Hornets can still win, as can Eastern Washington or Montana. Based on my analysis (which I'll say shortly), I don't believe Northern Arizona can host the tournament.
There are a few scenarios that are pretty clear cut in terms of determining the host of the Big Sky tournament:
- If Sac State beats NAU, they host the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU wins, Montana loses - then EWU hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana wins - then Montana hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana loses - then we would have a four way tie, with four teams at five losses. Oddly, this scenario is easy to figure out, because all four teams would be tied, you would just look at the records in the game between the teams. In that case, based on my understanding, Sac State would be the 1 seed, followed by Northern Arizona, followed by Montana, and EWU as the four seed.
[UPDATE: I have changed this section around as I have learned some new information]
The last possible scenario is that Sac State loses, but EWU and Montana both win. In that case, the Grizzlies and Eagles are tied at 14-4, while the Jacks and Hornets would be tied at 13-5.
EWU and Montana both split, which is the first tiebreaker. Then, the next tiebreaker would be the winning percentage against the next collective group. In that case, Montana would be the host, because they went 1-1 against NAU/Sac, while EWU went 1-2 against them. That would give Montana the tiebreaker, and they would host.
Then, Sac State would be third and NAU fourth, since the Hornets were 1-0 against Montana, while the Jacks were 0-1.
---
Northern Colorado is the best bet for the fifth seed because they just need a win, and they've got it. If they lose, in possible head to head ties for the fifth seed, they would beat Weber State, but lose to Idaho. If they are simply tied with Portland State, the tiebreaker winner would depend on the order of the top seeds, as they split the season series.
Weber State, Portland State, and Idaho are all into the tournament with a win or Southern Utah loss, but could potentially still miss the tournament if they lose and SUU wins.
Southern Utah is actually in pretty decent shape if they beat Portland State. They hold the tiebreaker over Weber State (who they beat twice) and Idaho (who they beat in their only meeting). SUU fans should also be rooting for Sac State to win - now that they have a win over the Hornets, that would help them in a tiebreaker against Portland State, should it come to that, since SUU is 1-1 against the Hornets, but PSU is 0-2.
EDIT: After poking around a bit more, I think Southern Utah is in if they win.
Since SUU plays PSU, if they win, there would be four other scenarios involving Weber State/Idaho and a tie for the final spot:
- Idaho wins, Weber State wins - In this case, SUU and Portland State would be tied at 8-10. They split the season series, so then things would get tricky. From my understanding, SUU would do better if it came down to Sac State being the definitive team, because they are 1-1 against the Hornets, while the Vikings are 0-2. PSU would get the advantage if EWU was the tiebreaker... BUT, EWU cannot be the definitive tiebreaker, because if they win, that means Weber State has lost, and Weber State would be the odd man out. So in the scenario of Idaho and Weber State both winning, that would leave Portland State out of the tournament.
- Idaho wins, Weber State loses - This would bring about a 3-way tie between Weber, PSU, and SUU. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 3-1, PSU 2-1, Weber State 0-3, so Weber State would miss out.
- Idaho loses, Weber State wins - This would bring a 3-way tie between SUU, PSU, and Idaho. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 2-1, PSU 2-2, and Idaho 1-2, so Idaho would miss the tournament.
- Idaho loses, Weber State loses - This would bring about a four way tie at 8-10. In the record between the four teams, SUU would be 4-1, PSU 3-2, Idaho 2-3, and WSU 1-4. That would leave Weber State as the odd team out.
That is a quick rundown of things... by no means comprehensive, but hopefully I've hit the key points. If you have any more specific questions, please let me know and I will try and answer them. I will try to update some more scenarios in the race for the final spot if I am able to get more time today.
Also, a programming note... I will unfortunately be out of town this weekend, as we are traveling for a baptism... So, I will try and post on Sunday, and hopefully tweet here and there, but I'm not sure how that will look. Either way, I'll have lots of coverage next week on everything Big Sky tournament related.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
One note of caution: Don't take this as Gospel truth. Obviously, I'm trying to be as accurate as possible, and not state anything incorrectly, but with so many scenarios, feel free to double check my work!
As far as I can tell, the race to host the conference tournament is down to three teams after Sacramento State's loss on Thursday - the Hornets can still win, as can Eastern Washington or Montana. Based on my analysis (which I'll say shortly), I don't believe Northern Arizona can host the tournament.
There are a few scenarios that are pretty clear cut in terms of determining the host of the Big Sky tournament:
- If Sac State beats NAU, they host the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU wins, Montana loses - then EWU hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana wins - then Montana hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana loses - then we would have a four way tie, with four teams at five losses. Oddly, this scenario is easy to figure out, because all four teams would be tied, you would just look at the records in the game between the teams. In that case, based on my understanding, Sac State would be the 1 seed, followed by Northern Arizona, followed by Montana, and EWU as the four seed.
[UPDATE: I have changed this section around as I have learned some new information]
The last possible scenario is that Sac State loses, but EWU and Montana both win. In that case, the Grizzlies and Eagles are tied at 14-4, while the Jacks and Hornets would be tied at 13-5.
EWU and Montana both split, which is the first tiebreaker. Then, the next tiebreaker would be the winning percentage against the next collective group. In that case, Montana would be the host, because they went 1-1 against NAU/Sac, while EWU went 1-2 against them. That would give Montana the tiebreaker, and they would host.
Then, Sac State would be third and NAU fourth, since the Hornets were 1-0 against Montana, while the Jacks were 0-1.
---
Northern Colorado is the best bet for the fifth seed because they just need a win, and they've got it. If they lose, in possible head to head ties for the fifth seed, they would beat Weber State, but lose to Idaho. If they are simply tied with Portland State, the tiebreaker winner would depend on the order of the top seeds, as they split the season series.
Weber State, Portland State, and Idaho are all into the tournament with a win or Southern Utah loss, but could potentially still miss the tournament if they lose and SUU wins.
Southern Utah is actually in pretty decent shape if they beat Portland State. They hold the tiebreaker over Weber State (who they beat twice) and Idaho (who they beat in their only meeting). SUU fans should also be rooting for Sac State to win - now that they have a win over the Hornets, that would help them in a tiebreaker against Portland State, should it come to that, since SUU is 1-1 against the Hornets, but PSU is 0-2.
EDIT: After poking around a bit more, I think Southern Utah is in if they win.
Since SUU plays PSU, if they win, there would be four other scenarios involving Weber State/Idaho and a tie for the final spot:
- Idaho wins, Weber State wins - In this case, SUU and Portland State would be tied at 8-10. They split the season series, so then things would get tricky. From my understanding, SUU would do better if it came down to Sac State being the definitive team, because they are 1-1 against the Hornets, while the Vikings are 0-2. PSU would get the advantage if EWU was the tiebreaker... BUT, EWU cannot be the definitive tiebreaker, because if they win, that means Weber State has lost, and Weber State would be the odd man out. So in the scenario of Idaho and Weber State both winning, that would leave Portland State out of the tournament.
- Idaho wins, Weber State loses - This would bring about a 3-way tie between Weber, PSU, and SUU. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 3-1, PSU 2-1, Weber State 0-3, so Weber State would miss out.
- Idaho loses, Weber State wins - This would bring a 3-way tie between SUU, PSU, and Idaho. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 2-1, PSU 2-2, and Idaho 1-2, so Idaho would miss the tournament.
- Idaho loses, Weber State loses - This would bring about a four way tie at 8-10. In the record between the four teams, SUU would be 4-1, PSU 3-2, Idaho 2-3, and WSU 1-4. That would leave Weber State as the odd team out.
That is a quick rundown of things... by no means comprehensive, but hopefully I've hit the key points. If you have any more specific questions, please let me know and I will try and answer them. I will try to update some more scenarios in the race for the final spot if I am able to get more time today.
Also, a programming note... I will unfortunately be out of town this weekend, as we are traveling for a baptism... So, I will try and post on Sunday, and hopefully tweet here and there, but I'm not sure how that will look. Either way, I'll have lots of coverage next week on everything Big Sky tournament related.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Thursday Predictions
Four Big Sky games on the docket... none of them involve two teams that are outside of the tournament picture, so that should make for a fun night of games! Let's run through them.
Sacramento State @ Southern Utah
We already know the stakes of the game. Sac State hosts the Big Sky tournament if they win, and SUU could be eliminated from the tournament if they lose (coupled with a Weber State loss). While SUU is at home, they are just 3-4 in Cedar City in Big Sky play this year, so it's not like they're invincible there. I think the Hornets can taste that conference title, and that will be all the motivation they need to go out and get it. Sacramento State 77, Southern Utah 71
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State
The Bengals are in the middle of a lost season - at 3-13 they are just trying to get out of the cellar. On the flip side, EWU still has a shot for the title. The Bengals zone has a tendency to give teams good looks from the outside, and that plays right into the Eagles hands. It was a fairly close game when these teams played in Cheney, and should be close again, as ISU will look to slow things way down. However, they won't have enough offensive firepower to win this game. Eastern Washington 71, Idaho State 61
Idaho @ Weber State
Idaho is technically not in yet, so they are trying to clinch a berth in the Big Sky tournament. Weber State got great play last week from Chris Golden, who was one of the co-players of the week in the conference. He averaged 21 points, and shot the ball well. That is production they desperately need, since leading guard Jeremy Senglin is still out with a broken jaw. With the way Idaho has played this year, you never know what to expect from half to half, and with Weber playing for their tournament lives, I expect them to come out a little stronger. Weber State 69, Idaho 67
Portland State @ Northern Arizona
Like Idaho, PSU needs a win to completely clinch a tourney spot, though they are in better shape due to holding a tiebreaker over Southern Utah and Weber State (in fact, I'm not sure how they could fall out of the tournament, but I'm trying to confirm if they've clinched or not). However, I just think NAU is the better team here, and playing at home, they should win this game. NAU should be able to create second chances, and get some good looks from three-point range. In a weird way, it might be advantageous for NAU to lose this and give PSU a better chance of moving to the 5 seed (rather than UNC or Idaho), but obviously they won't be thinking like that. Northern Arizona 76, Portland State 70
Thoughts?
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Sacramento State @ Southern Utah
We already know the stakes of the game. Sac State hosts the Big Sky tournament if they win, and SUU could be eliminated from the tournament if they lose (coupled with a Weber State loss). While SUU is at home, they are just 3-4 in Cedar City in Big Sky play this year, so it's not like they're invincible there. I think the Hornets can taste that conference title, and that will be all the motivation they need to go out and get it. Sacramento State 77, Southern Utah 71
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State
The Bengals are in the middle of a lost season - at 3-13 they are just trying to get out of the cellar. On the flip side, EWU still has a shot for the title. The Bengals zone has a tendency to give teams good looks from the outside, and that plays right into the Eagles hands. It was a fairly close game when these teams played in Cheney, and should be close again, as ISU will look to slow things way down. However, they won't have enough offensive firepower to win this game. Eastern Washington 71, Idaho State 61
Idaho @ Weber State
Idaho is technically not in yet, so they are trying to clinch a berth in the Big Sky tournament. Weber State got great play last week from Chris Golden, who was one of the co-players of the week in the conference. He averaged 21 points, and shot the ball well. That is production they desperately need, since leading guard Jeremy Senglin is still out with a broken jaw. With the way Idaho has played this year, you never know what to expect from half to half, and with Weber playing for their tournament lives, I expect them to come out a little stronger. Weber State 69, Idaho 67
Portland State @ Northern Arizona
Like Idaho, PSU needs a win to completely clinch a tourney spot, though they are in better shape due to holding a tiebreaker over Southern Utah and Weber State (in fact, I'm not sure how they could fall out of the tournament, but I'm trying to confirm if they've clinched or not). However, I just think NAU is the better team here, and playing at home, they should win this game. NAU should be able to create second chances, and get some good looks from three-point range. In a weird way, it might be advantageous for NAU to lose this and give PSU a better chance of moving to the 5 seed (rather than UNC or Idaho), but obviously they won't be thinking like that. Northern Arizona 76, Portland State 70
Thoughts?
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Big Sky Basketball Tiebreaker Rules
In case it is needed, here is the Big Sky tiebreaker rules. I posted this a couple years ago, but figured it would be well worth it to post again for anyone to use as a reference!
1. Head-to-Head Competition
a. Consider the head-to-head record during the Conference season. In double round robin play a team would have to sweep the opponent to break a tie with this method.
b. In the case of more than two tied teams, consider the Conference regular season record for head-to-head competition among all of the tied teams. This process is used to break ties between any of the tied teams with any remaining tied teams returning to the process at criteria 1.a. (above). (Example: Teams A, B, C, and D have identical record from a double round robin season. In head-to-head competition Team A emerges with 4-2 record against the other tied teams, team B and Team C have a 3-3 record and team D has a 2-4 record. Teams A and D can be placed in the final standings at that point while teams B and C return to criteria 1.a. If B and C have split their regular Conference season games, they will move to criteria 2. Performance against other teams in descending order.)
c. In the case of three or more teams having identical win-loss records, the normal tie-breaking procedure would be used. When one or more of these teams is eliminated by using the tie-breaking procedure, the remaining teams involved would then return to the criteria listed in a., above, to break the tie. This will be done until a team is established for that particular seeding position.
2. Performance against Conference teams in descending order of finish, beginning with the No.1 team. (Example: Teams B and C remained tied after head-to-head criteria from above. Team A has been declared the Conference Champion based on the above criteria. Team B has split the Conference season games with team A and team C has lost both of the Conference games to team A. Team B is now placed in second place ahead of team C.)
3. RPI rankings
4. Coin flip between the tied teams
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1. Head-to-Head Competition
a. Consider the head-to-head record during the Conference season. In double round robin play a team would have to sweep the opponent to break a tie with this method.
b. In the case of more than two tied teams, consider the Conference regular season record for head-to-head competition among all of the tied teams. This process is used to break ties between any of the tied teams with any remaining tied teams returning to the process at criteria 1.a. (above). (Example: Teams A, B, C, and D have identical record from a double round robin season. In head-to-head competition Team A emerges with 4-2 record against the other tied teams, team B and Team C have a 3-3 record and team D has a 2-4 record. Teams A and D can be placed in the final standings at that point while teams B and C return to criteria 1.a. If B and C have split their regular Conference season games, they will move to criteria 2. Performance against other teams in descending order.)
c. In the case of three or more teams having identical win-loss records, the normal tie-breaking procedure would be used. When one or more of these teams is eliminated by using the tie-breaking procedure, the remaining teams involved would then return to the criteria listed in a., above, to break the tie. This will be done until a team is established for that particular seeding position.
2. Performance against Conference teams in descending order of finish, beginning with the No.1 team. (Example: Teams B and C remained tied after head-to-head criteria from above. Team A has been declared the Conference Champion based on the above criteria. Team B has split the Conference season games with team A and team C has lost both of the Conference games to team A. Team B is now placed in second place ahead of team C.)
3. RPI rankings
4. Coin flip between the tied teams
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Tuesday, March 3, 2015
What Are The Chances Sac State Loses Their Last Two Games?
As you know by now, Sacramento State will host the Big Sky tournament as long as they win one of their final two games. I touched on it briefly in the piece, but the Hornets don't have an easy road, and it's not a foregone conclusion that they do win one of the final two. But looking deeper, what are the chances they lose both?
They go on the road to take on Southern Utah, and then on the road to take on Northern Arizona. Guessing at the lines (I don't gamble so I don't follow these things closely, so take this with a grain of salt), I would estimate they'll be favored against SUU by about 3 or 4 points, and an underdog to NAU by 4 to 5 points.
They played each of these teams at home this year, and beat SUU 90-75 (in a game that was never really in doubt), and NAU 78-73 (where NAU led at the 13 minute mark of the second half).
KenPom's generator gives them a 60% chance of beating SUU, and a 34% chance of beating NAU. So, if we say they have a 40% chance of losing to SUU, and a 66% chance of losing to NAU, that would give them a 26.4% chance of losing both games. Not huge, but certainly not an insignificant chance.
Of the two games, obviously, they would like to take care of business on Thursday. Both they and SUU will have plenty to play for, which will make it a fun game. I think the TBirds are a relatively good matchup for the Hornets. Sac State has been very susceptible to teams that can score inside (opponents shoot 54.8% on twos against Sac State in Big Sky play, worst mark in the conference), but SUU that's not necessarily the TBirds games. They should be able to limit SUU's looks from the outside.
Northern Arizona is not really set up to exploit the Hornets down low (they shoot a Big Sky worst 44.3% on twos in conference play), as their offense is based more on penetration from Kris Yanku and spacing from their shooters. However, they could have some luck slowing the Hornets down a bit, as defenders such as Jordyn Martin and Len Springs can slow any penetration from Mikh McKinney and Cody Demps. There's a good chance that the meeting could be a preview of the Big Sky semifinals, and it makes for a fascinating matchup.
The most likely scenario to me is that the Hornets beat Southern Utah before losing to NAU in the season finale. They know what's at stake, and they showed last Saturday against Portland State that they will do what they can to take the title. However, it's far from a foregone conclusion that they will win of their last two games, and the pressure will really be amped up if Southern Utah can get an upset on Thursday night.
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They go on the road to take on Southern Utah, and then on the road to take on Northern Arizona. Guessing at the lines (I don't gamble so I don't follow these things closely, so take this with a grain of salt), I would estimate they'll be favored against SUU by about 3 or 4 points, and an underdog to NAU by 4 to 5 points.
They played each of these teams at home this year, and beat SUU 90-75 (in a game that was never really in doubt), and NAU 78-73 (where NAU led at the 13 minute mark of the second half).
KenPom's generator gives them a 60% chance of beating SUU, and a 34% chance of beating NAU. So, if we say they have a 40% chance of losing to SUU, and a 66% chance of losing to NAU, that would give them a 26.4% chance of losing both games. Not huge, but certainly not an insignificant chance.
Of the two games, obviously, they would like to take care of business on Thursday. Both they and SUU will have plenty to play for, which will make it a fun game. I think the TBirds are a relatively good matchup for the Hornets. Sac State has been very susceptible to teams that can score inside (opponents shoot 54.8% on twos against Sac State in Big Sky play, worst mark in the conference), but SUU that's not necessarily the TBirds games. They should be able to limit SUU's looks from the outside.
Northern Arizona is not really set up to exploit the Hornets down low (they shoot a Big Sky worst 44.3% on twos in conference play), as their offense is based more on penetration from Kris Yanku and spacing from their shooters. However, they could have some luck slowing the Hornets down a bit, as defenders such as Jordyn Martin and Len Springs can slow any penetration from Mikh McKinney and Cody Demps. There's a good chance that the meeting could be a preview of the Big Sky semifinals, and it makes for a fascinating matchup.
The most likely scenario to me is that the Hornets beat Southern Utah before losing to NAU in the season finale. They know what's at stake, and they showed last Saturday against Portland State that they will do what they can to take the title. However, it's far from a foregone conclusion that they will win of their last two games, and the pressure will really be amped up if Southern Utah can get an upset on Thursday night.
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Monday, March 2, 2015
Race For Final Tournament Spot
We already know that the battle for the top seed in the Big Sky tournament could be relatively simple, tiebreaker wise - if Sac State wins one more game, they are the host. The race for the eighth seed is about just as simple.
Montana State, North Dakota, and Idaho State are all out. It will take at least 7 wins to make the tournament, and none of them can get more than five.
Idaho (8 wins) and Portland State (8 wins) could miss the tournament, but it doesn't seem likely, since it would require losing both games, SUU winning both games, Weber State winning at least one game, and the tiebreakers going against them. It's certainly plausible, but not the most likely scenario.
The most likely scenario is that either Weber State or Southern Utah will hold the eighth seed when the Big Sky tournament begins. The tiebreaker is very straight foward... SUU swept the season series, so if the teams have the same record, they are in.
Right now, Weber State is 7-9, and they end the year by hosting Idaho, and then hosting Eastern Washington. Southern Utah is 6-10, and they end the year by hosting Sacramento State, and then Portland State. Both are very tough.
KenPom forecasts that Weber has a 54% chance to beat Idaho, and a 37% chance to beat EWU. SUU, meanwhile, has a 40% chance of beating Sac State, and a 55% chance of beating PSU. Take those numbers for what their worth, but it gives you a general idea of how they stack up.
The upshot is this - With Sac State having a ton to play for, and Idaho's sporadic play, it wouldn't be a huge shock if this race is decided by the end of Thursday night, and there is no drama for the final spot. However, if the two teams are still separated by one game, we will have a fun Saturday.
The most likely scenario is that we'll see Weber State take on Sacramento State in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament, but it wouldn't take much to turn that prediction on its head.
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Montana State, North Dakota, and Idaho State are all out. It will take at least 7 wins to make the tournament, and none of them can get more than five.
Idaho (8 wins) and Portland State (8 wins) could miss the tournament, but it doesn't seem likely, since it would require losing both games, SUU winning both games, Weber State winning at least one game, and the tiebreakers going against them. It's certainly plausible, but not the most likely scenario.
The most likely scenario is that either Weber State or Southern Utah will hold the eighth seed when the Big Sky tournament begins. The tiebreaker is very straight foward... SUU swept the season series, so if the teams have the same record, they are in.
Right now, Weber State is 7-9, and they end the year by hosting Idaho, and then hosting Eastern Washington. Southern Utah is 6-10, and they end the year by hosting Sacramento State, and then Portland State. Both are very tough.
KenPom forecasts that Weber has a 54% chance to beat Idaho, and a 37% chance to beat EWU. SUU, meanwhile, has a 40% chance of beating Sac State, and a 55% chance of beating PSU. Take those numbers for what their worth, but it gives you a general idea of how they stack up.
The upshot is this - With Sac State having a ton to play for, and Idaho's sporadic play, it wouldn't be a huge shock if this race is decided by the end of Thursday night, and there is no drama for the final spot. However, if the two teams are still separated by one game, we will have a fun Saturday.
The most likely scenario is that we'll see Weber State take on Sacramento State in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament, but it wouldn't take much to turn that prediction on its head.
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Sunday, March 1, 2015
Sacramento State is One Win Away From Hosting Big Sky Tournament
I will have more to say about the games Saturday, and how things look heading into the final week of regular season... but for now, I wanted to point out that after Saturday, things at the top of the conference have resolved themselves potentially in an easy to understand way.
Saturday could not have got any better for Sacramento State. Montana beat Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado beat Northern Arizona, and then the Hornets themselves took care of business by going on the road to beat Portland State.
That sets up this - with just one victory in their final two games, Sacramento State will be hosting the Big Sky tournament. Pretty heady stuff for a program that has not had a winning season since entering the DI ranks in the 1991-92 season*.
The tiebreakers work like this - Sacramento State and Eastern Washington split their season series, so if they tie, the next tiebreak will be how they fared against the third place team, which will be Montana (NAU can tie Montana, but Montana would hold the tiebreaker over NAU). In that case, Sac State beat Montana, while EWU split with the Grizzlies, which would give the Hornets the tiebreaker advantage.
If they tie with Montana, then they win the tiebreaker by virtue of the head to head. If all three teams would tie, then the common records advantage goes to Sac State - again by virtue of their win over Montana. Basically, that one point, comeback win is going to be the tiebreaker trump card.
Now, a win is not a foregone conclusion. The Hornets go on the road to take on Southern Utah, who has plenty to play for themselves (they trail Weber State by one game for the eighth spot, but they do own the tiebreak), and then follow it up with a road game at Northern Arizona, where they will likely be an underdog. The path is not easy.
But, they do know that with one more win in the final two games, they will be hosting the Big Sky tournament.
*An earlier version of this post said they entered DI in the late 80s, but that has been corrected.
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Saturday could not have got any better for Sacramento State. Montana beat Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado beat Northern Arizona, and then the Hornets themselves took care of business by going on the road to beat Portland State.
That sets up this - with just one victory in their final two games, Sacramento State will be hosting the Big Sky tournament. Pretty heady stuff for a program that has not had a winning season since entering the DI ranks in the 1991-92 season*.
The tiebreakers work like this - Sacramento State and Eastern Washington split their season series, so if they tie, the next tiebreak will be how they fared against the third place team, which will be Montana (NAU can tie Montana, but Montana would hold the tiebreaker over NAU). In that case, Sac State beat Montana, while EWU split with the Grizzlies, which would give the Hornets the tiebreaker advantage.
If they tie with Montana, then they win the tiebreaker by virtue of the head to head. If all three teams would tie, then the common records advantage goes to Sac State - again by virtue of their win over Montana. Basically, that one point, comeback win is going to be the tiebreaker trump card.
Now, a win is not a foregone conclusion. The Hornets go on the road to take on Southern Utah, who has plenty to play for themselves (they trail Weber State by one game for the eighth spot, but they do own the tiebreak), and then follow it up with a road game at Northern Arizona, where they will likely be an underdog. The path is not easy.
But, they do know that with one more win in the final two games, they will be hosting the Big Sky tournament.
*An earlier version of this post said they entered DI in the late 80s, but that has been corrected.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Northern Colorado Beats Northern Arizona In Thriller
I was fortunate enough to be able to attend the battle between Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona in Greeley on Saturday, as the Bears got the 76-74 win to essentially knock the Lumberjacks out of a chance for the Big Sky title.
It was a back and forth game that saw 13 lead changes, with the largest lead being just seven points. It came down to the end of the game, as NAU clung to a 73-72 lead when Tevin Svihovec drove to the paint, and a 50/50 call resulted in Jordyn Martin being called for the blocking foul. Svihovec made both free throws with just 6.9 seconds left. After an NAU turnover, Tim Huskisson made a pair of FTs, which gave UNC the 76-73 lead.
Of course, there was more wackiness to come... Ako Kaluna got the ball for the Jacks, and he was fouled trying to throw up a heave from halfcourt, giving him three freebies. However, he missed the first, and NAU couldn't corral his intentional miss on the third free throw, giving the Bears the win.
Northern Colorado was led by strong play from the seniors. Tevin Svihovec finished with 20 points, and he bookened things for UNC. He started with 7 of their first 9 points, and then he got a lot of big buckets down the stretch. The other star was Tim Huskisson, who finished with 18 points (12 in the second half) and 7 rebounds. He had several buckets down the stretch, where he was able to use his quickness to get to the basket.
After the game, Coach Murphy said the key was the rebounding, as UNC was able to consistently get second chances. They had 14 offensive boards (in fairness, so did NAU), including four from Huskisson. The other key for their win was that they took good care of the ball - five turnovers in the game, with none in the second half.
For the Jacks, Kris Yanku was his usual excellent self. He finished with 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. UNC coach BJ Hill said they had a bit of trouble with his size, as he was able to get into the paint almost at will at times. He plays with such great pace, and an understanding of angles. He's also got, for my money, the best vision in the conference. I think he's going to the best conference POY by in his senior year.
NAU falls to 11-5 in the Big Sky, and their most likely landing spot is fourth. UNC moves to 9-8, and if they win their finale against North Dakota, they have a good chance of finishing fifth. That could set up a rematch between these two teams in the Big Sky tournament (which would also be a rematch of last year's tournament opener). As fans, we'd be pretty lucky to see another battle between these two teams, because it sure was a fun game tonight.
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It was a back and forth game that saw 13 lead changes, with the largest lead being just seven points. It came down to the end of the game, as NAU clung to a 73-72 lead when Tevin Svihovec drove to the paint, and a 50/50 call resulted in Jordyn Martin being called for the blocking foul. Svihovec made both free throws with just 6.9 seconds left. After an NAU turnover, Tim Huskisson made a pair of FTs, which gave UNC the 76-73 lead.
Of course, there was more wackiness to come... Ako Kaluna got the ball for the Jacks, and he was fouled trying to throw up a heave from halfcourt, giving him three freebies. However, he missed the first, and NAU couldn't corral his intentional miss on the third free throw, giving the Bears the win.
Northern Colorado was led by strong play from the seniors. Tevin Svihovec finished with 20 points, and he bookened things for UNC. He started with 7 of their first 9 points, and then he got a lot of big buckets down the stretch. The other star was Tim Huskisson, who finished with 18 points (12 in the second half) and 7 rebounds. He had several buckets down the stretch, where he was able to use his quickness to get to the basket.
After the game, Coach Murphy said the key was the rebounding, as UNC was able to consistently get second chances. They had 14 offensive boards (in fairness, so did NAU), including four from Huskisson. The other key for their win was that they took good care of the ball - five turnovers in the game, with none in the second half.
For the Jacks, Kris Yanku was his usual excellent self. He finished with 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. UNC coach BJ Hill said they had a bit of trouble with his size, as he was able to get into the paint almost at will at times. He plays with such great pace, and an understanding of angles. He's also got, for my money, the best vision in the conference. I think he's going to the best conference POY by in his senior year.
NAU falls to 11-5 in the Big Sky, and their most likely landing spot is fourth. UNC moves to 9-8, and if they win their finale against North Dakota, they have a good chance of finishing fifth. That could set up a rematch between these two teams in the Big Sky tournament (which would also be a rematch of last year's tournament opener). As fans, we'd be pretty lucky to see another battle between these two teams, because it sure was a fun game tonight.
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Friday, February 27, 2015
Idaho Outlasts Montana in Double OT
There were four games last night, but the most interesting both on the court and off the court (with its ramifications) was Idaho's double OT win over Montana.
Travis DeCuire had to be having flashbacks to Sacramento, because this one played out in a similar fashion. In that game, Montana had a 97.0% win probability with 3:03 to play. Against Idaho, they had a 97.2% win probability with 3:24 left, and found a way to lose once again.
The Grizzlies were in control much of the way, but the Vandals went on a 10-1 run to close out regulation, sending the game to OT when Mike Scott hit two free throws with 1.7 seconds left. In the first OT, it was Montana who needed the heroics, as a late Jordan Gregory three tied the game up to give us more free basketball. But in the second OT, Idaho's offense could not be stopped, as they scored 22 points in that five minute session to get the win.
There are no shortage of guys that played well for Idaho, but a guy that really stuck out to me was freshman Arkadiy Mkrtychyan. He finished with 15 points (including 9/10 FT), and had 6 rebounds. It's not the best stat line on the team, but he impresses with his nose for the ball, and ability to make big plays at big moments. In regulation, Bira Seck got fouled down 3, and shot the 1-and-1. He missed the front end, but Ark got the offensive board, got fouled, and then hit both free throws. That is a huge play for anyone, let alone a freshman.
Jordan Gregory led the way for the Grizzlies with 36 points, but he did miss a big free throw down the stretch. With Montana up 3 and about 15 seconds left in the second half, he missed the front end of a 1-and-1, keeping the Vandals alive. Still, overall, he was sensational, carrying the offense. Martin Breunig fouled out, which is somewhat of a theme for him... he is outstanding, but often finds himself in foul trouble.
With the win, Idaho should be all but into the tournament, and of course they have shown with their play against top teams this year that they will be very dangerous. The win officially knocks Montana State out of the tournament, with Idaho State and North Dakota on life support. It also dampens Southern Utah's hopes a bit, after their loss to Northern Colorado.
For Montana, they almost certainly won't be hosting the Big Sky tournament. How you feel about them beyond that is probably open to interpretation. On the one hand, you can read into it that they can't hold onto leads, and struggle at the end of close games. Personally, I find them to be just as dangerous today as they seemed to be yesterday. They struggled in close games... but they also went on the road and had two good teams (Sac State and Idaho) on the ropes. They aren't likely to make those same mistakes again.
It's going to be a great Big Sky tournament.
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Travis DeCuire had to be having flashbacks to Sacramento, because this one played out in a similar fashion. In that game, Montana had a 97.0% win probability with 3:03 to play. Against Idaho, they had a 97.2% win probability with 3:24 left, and found a way to lose once again.
The Grizzlies were in control much of the way, but the Vandals went on a 10-1 run to close out regulation, sending the game to OT when Mike Scott hit two free throws with 1.7 seconds left. In the first OT, it was Montana who needed the heroics, as a late Jordan Gregory three tied the game up to give us more free basketball. But in the second OT, Idaho's offense could not be stopped, as they scored 22 points in that five minute session to get the win.
There are no shortage of guys that played well for Idaho, but a guy that really stuck out to me was freshman Arkadiy Mkrtychyan. He finished with 15 points (including 9/10 FT), and had 6 rebounds. It's not the best stat line on the team, but he impresses with his nose for the ball, and ability to make big plays at big moments. In regulation, Bira Seck got fouled down 3, and shot the 1-and-1. He missed the front end, but Ark got the offensive board, got fouled, and then hit both free throws. That is a huge play for anyone, let alone a freshman.
Jordan Gregory led the way for the Grizzlies with 36 points, but he did miss a big free throw down the stretch. With Montana up 3 and about 15 seconds left in the second half, he missed the front end of a 1-and-1, keeping the Vandals alive. Still, overall, he was sensational, carrying the offense. Martin Breunig fouled out, which is somewhat of a theme for him... he is outstanding, but often finds himself in foul trouble.
With the win, Idaho should be all but into the tournament, and of course they have shown with their play against top teams this year that they will be very dangerous. The win officially knocks Montana State out of the tournament, with Idaho State and North Dakota on life support. It also dampens Southern Utah's hopes a bit, after their loss to Northern Colorado.
For Montana, they almost certainly won't be hosting the Big Sky tournament. How you feel about them beyond that is probably open to interpretation. On the one hand, you can read into it that they can't hold onto leads, and struggle at the end of close games. Personally, I find them to be just as dangerous today as they seemed to be yesterday. They struggled in close games... but they also went on the road and had two good teams (Sac State and Idaho) on the ropes. They aren't likely to make those same mistakes again.
It's going to be a great Big Sky tournament.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Thursday Night Predictions
Four games on tap Thursday night, and we know the importance of games on the title race, and on the race to make the conference tournament. Let's take a look.
Montana @ Idaho
This is a huge game for many reasons. For one, with a loss, Idaho suddenly finds itself right on the bubble for the last conference tourney spot. For Montana, the implications are obvious, if they win this, it sets up a huge game on Saturday in Cheney. In these teams first meeting in Missoula, the Grizzlies limited the Vandals to just 0.90 PPP, as Idaho wasn't able to get free for any outside looks. That will be key, because of Idaho's offense is generated via the three-point shot (about 36% of their points come via it). Since this is in Moscow, it will be a battle, but Montana is just playing better basketball right now. I expect this one to be close, but I trust the Grizzlies to pull it out. Montana 73, Idaho 70
Montana State @ Eastern Washington
In some sense, this could be a trap game for the Eagles, because they play Montana on Saturday, and because MSU has been playing pretty solidly as of late. However, I don't think it will play out that way for a few reasons. For one, it's in Cheney, and that should help. Two, the Eagles know how important every game is for the title hopes. Three, they haven't been playing great basketball the last couple of weeks, so they know how susceptible they are. I think they handle this game fairly easily. Eastern Washington 79, Montana State 70
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota
NAU knows it still has a chance to win the conference crown, but a tough two-game roadtrip begins in Grand Forks. The Jacks shooting can come and go, but their best attribute offensively is their ability to crash the offensive glass, which is something UND has to watch for. But the story of this game, I think, will be on the other end, where NAU should be able to suffocate UND, not given them any second chances, and restrict opportunities in the paint. That is why I like the Jacks in this game. Northern Arizona 66, North Dakota 61
Southern Utah @ Northern Colorado
A win for SUU would put them in a tie with Weber State (and possibly Idaho) for the final tournament spot, so the stakes are quite clear for them. They go against a UNC team that is struggling badly right now, but always plays a lot better at home. This should be a fun game. The TBirds love to put you on the foul line, but drawing fouls and getting to the line isn't necessarily a strength for UNC. The game is most interesting if only because we never know what we'll see from UNC. However, I think the desperation of playing at home, being under .500 in Big Sky play, and having lost four straight games will help. Northern Colorado 81, Southern Utah 74
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Montana @ Idaho
This is a huge game for many reasons. For one, with a loss, Idaho suddenly finds itself right on the bubble for the last conference tourney spot. For Montana, the implications are obvious, if they win this, it sets up a huge game on Saturday in Cheney. In these teams first meeting in Missoula, the Grizzlies limited the Vandals to just 0.90 PPP, as Idaho wasn't able to get free for any outside looks. That will be key, because of Idaho's offense is generated via the three-point shot (about 36% of their points come via it). Since this is in Moscow, it will be a battle, but Montana is just playing better basketball right now. I expect this one to be close, but I trust the Grizzlies to pull it out. Montana 73, Idaho 70
Montana State @ Eastern Washington
In some sense, this could be a trap game for the Eagles, because they play Montana on Saturday, and because MSU has been playing pretty solidly as of late. However, I don't think it will play out that way for a few reasons. For one, it's in Cheney, and that should help. Two, the Eagles know how important every game is for the title hopes. Three, they haven't been playing great basketball the last couple of weeks, so they know how susceptible they are. I think they handle this game fairly easily. Eastern Washington 79, Montana State 70
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota
NAU knows it still has a chance to win the conference crown, but a tough two-game roadtrip begins in Grand Forks. The Jacks shooting can come and go, but their best attribute offensively is their ability to crash the offensive glass, which is something UND has to watch for. But the story of this game, I think, will be on the other end, where NAU should be able to suffocate UND, not given them any second chances, and restrict opportunities in the paint. That is why I like the Jacks in this game. Northern Arizona 66, North Dakota 61
Southern Utah @ Northern Colorado
A win for SUU would put them in a tie with Weber State (and possibly Idaho) for the final tournament spot, so the stakes are quite clear for them. They go against a UNC team that is struggling badly right now, but always plays a lot better at home. This should be a fun game. The TBirds love to put you on the foul line, but drawing fouls and getting to the line isn't necessarily a strength for UNC. The game is most interesting if only because we never know what we'll see from UNC. However, I think the desperation of playing at home, being under .500 in Big Sky play, and having lost four straight games will help. Northern Colorado 81, Southern Utah 74
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Conference Title Race
We have two weeks left in the season, and each team has either three or four games left to play. As things are looking, we have a great race at the top of the Big Sky, with four teams having legitimate chances for the conference title. The standings are as follows:
Montana 12-3
Sacramento State 12-3
Eastern Washington 11-3
Northern Arizona 10-4
Let's break things down a few different ways to see how things might shake out when all is said and done.
The Numbers:
When it comes to numbers, KenPom is my go to, and I use the site all the time. Currently, his methodology rates EWU as the best team of the group (144th best team in the country), and projects them to finish 14-4. He has Montana as the second best team (161st best in the nation), and has them at 13-5. The ratings actually show NAU as being a slightly better team than Sac State, but has the Hornets finishing 13-5 and the Lumberjacks at 12-6.
The only issue I have with these rankings is that they go based on the whole season, and lately, EWU has not looked as good as they did earlier in the year. I think they have the highest ceiling of any of these four teams, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be the team to win the conference.
Here are the points per possession for and against during conference play (interpret how you will):
- Eastern Washington - 1.151 PPP (2nd in Big Sky), 1.09 PPP allowed (7th)
- Sacramento State - 1.152 PPP (1st), 1.09 PPP allowed (8th)
- Montana - 1.11 PPP (6th), 0.98 PPP allowed (1st)
- Northern Arizona - 1.08 PPP (7th), 1.01 PPP allowed (2nd)
For reference, the best offense in the country (Wisconsin) has an AdjO of 1.24 PPP, while the best defense in the country (Virginia) is alloweing 0.84 PPP.
The Schedules:
Here is the remaining schedules for the teams:
- Montana - at Idaho, at Eastern Washington, at Montana State
- Sacramento State - at Portland State, at Northern Arizona, at Southern Utah
- Eastern Washington - Montana State, Montana, at Idaho State, at Weber State
- Northern Arizona - at North Dakota, at Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State
Of those four schedules, I'd want EWU's the most, since they have two home games, and then two road games against more winnable competition. Both Montana and Sac State finish with three road games (of the two, I'd rather have Sac State's schedule, but neither is easy). NAU doesn't have a particularly easy slate either. as UND and UNC are both tough places to win, and obviously both of their homes games are against top 5 teams.
Head to Head:
Head to head is the first tiebreaker... At this point in the year, I'm not going to compare the secondary tiebreakers, because there is too much that can change since a lot of them depend on who else you lose to, and where they fall in the standings. That analysis will come at a later date. For now, let's look at how these teams have performed against each other.
- Montana - 1-0 vs NAU, 0-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs EWU with a game remaining
- Sac State - 1-1 vs EWU, 1-0 vs Montana, 1-0 vs NAU with a game remaining
- Eastern Washington - 1-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs NAU, 1-0 vs Montana with a game remaining
- Northern Arizona - 1-0 vs EWU, 0-1 vs Montana, 0-1 vs Sac State with a game remaining
It's hard to tell who things favor, because it just depends on who you are tied up with. This isn't necessarily useful for now, but something to keep an eye on, or if you are a fan of one of the teams, you know who you might want to root for more than others (for example, a Sac State fan would rather be tied with Montana than EWU, since you know you win the tiebreaker against them).
My Thoughts:
While Northern Arizona would be a great story, they are unlikely to win it since they are a loss behind everyone else. They need to win out, and while that is possible, I wouldn't call it likely.
Eastern Washington is a game behind the other two teams in the win column, but they should get to that 12th win on Thursday when they host Montana State. From there, I think they are the best bet to win the title, because all of their games are wins on paper. Montana will likely be favored to lose to EWU, and their game at Idaho is probably about a pick'em. Meanwhile, Sac State will probably be favored to lose at NAU, and their game at PSU is probably about a pick'em.
So, add it all up, and I like Eastern Washington as the most likely host of the Big Sky tournament, followed by Sacramento State, and then Montana, and then Northern Arizona.
Of course, all four of these teams have a very real chance, which will make it a fun race down the stretch? What does everyone else think?
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Montana 12-3
Sacramento State 12-3
Eastern Washington 11-3
Northern Arizona 10-4
Let's break things down a few different ways to see how things might shake out when all is said and done.
The Numbers:
When it comes to numbers, KenPom is my go to, and I use the site all the time. Currently, his methodology rates EWU as the best team of the group (144th best team in the country), and projects them to finish 14-4. He has Montana as the second best team (161st best in the nation), and has them at 13-5. The ratings actually show NAU as being a slightly better team than Sac State, but has the Hornets finishing 13-5 and the Lumberjacks at 12-6.
The only issue I have with these rankings is that they go based on the whole season, and lately, EWU has not looked as good as they did earlier in the year. I think they have the highest ceiling of any of these four teams, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be the team to win the conference.
Here are the points per possession for and against during conference play (interpret how you will):
- Eastern Washington - 1.151 PPP (2nd in Big Sky), 1.09 PPP allowed (7th)
- Sacramento State - 1.152 PPP (1st), 1.09 PPP allowed (8th)
- Montana - 1.11 PPP (6th), 0.98 PPP allowed (1st)
- Northern Arizona - 1.08 PPP (7th), 1.01 PPP allowed (2nd)
For reference, the best offense in the country (Wisconsin) has an AdjO of 1.24 PPP, while the best defense in the country (Virginia) is alloweing 0.84 PPP.
The Schedules:
Here is the remaining schedules for the teams:
- Montana - at Idaho, at Eastern Washington, at Montana State
- Sacramento State - at Portland State, at Northern Arizona, at Southern Utah
- Eastern Washington - Montana State, Montana, at Idaho State, at Weber State
- Northern Arizona - at North Dakota, at Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State
Of those four schedules, I'd want EWU's the most, since they have two home games, and then two road games against more winnable competition. Both Montana and Sac State finish with three road games (of the two, I'd rather have Sac State's schedule, but neither is easy). NAU doesn't have a particularly easy slate either. as UND and UNC are both tough places to win, and obviously both of their homes games are against top 5 teams.
Head to Head:
Head to head is the first tiebreaker... At this point in the year, I'm not going to compare the secondary tiebreakers, because there is too much that can change since a lot of them depend on who else you lose to, and where they fall in the standings. That analysis will come at a later date. For now, let's look at how these teams have performed against each other.
- Montana - 1-0 vs NAU, 0-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs EWU with a game remaining
- Sac State - 1-1 vs EWU, 1-0 vs Montana, 1-0 vs NAU with a game remaining
- Eastern Washington - 1-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs NAU, 1-0 vs Montana with a game remaining
- Northern Arizona - 1-0 vs EWU, 0-1 vs Montana, 0-1 vs Sac State with a game remaining
It's hard to tell who things favor, because it just depends on who you are tied up with. This isn't necessarily useful for now, but something to keep an eye on, or if you are a fan of one of the teams, you know who you might want to root for more than others (for example, a Sac State fan would rather be tied with Montana than EWU, since you know you win the tiebreaker against them).
My Thoughts:
While Northern Arizona would be a great story, they are unlikely to win it since they are a loss behind everyone else. They need to win out, and while that is possible, I wouldn't call it likely.
Eastern Washington is a game behind the other two teams in the win column, but they should get to that 12th win on Thursday when they host Montana State. From there, I think they are the best bet to win the title, because all of their games are wins on paper. Montana will likely be favored to lose to EWU, and their game at Idaho is probably about a pick'em. Meanwhile, Sac State will probably be favored to lose at NAU, and their game at PSU is probably about a pick'em.
So, add it all up, and I like Eastern Washington as the most likely host of the Big Sky tournament, followed by Sacramento State, and then Montana, and then Northern Arizona.
Of course, all four of these teams have a very real chance, which will make it a fun race down the stretch? What does everyone else think?
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Sunday, February 22, 2015
All Home Teams Win on Saturday Night
Now that we are down to the final few weeks of the season, every game seems to have big implications on the Big Sky. There is the race for the top seed (which we'll look at in more depth later this week), and there is also an interesting race brewing for the final tournament spot. On Saturday, there were six games, and the home team won them all. Here are the scores:
Northern Arizona 73, Eastern Washington 69
Montana 74, Weber State 63
Sacramento State 74, North Dakota 66
Portland State 91, Northern Colorado 75
Southern Utah 79, Idaho 77 (OT)
Montana State 67, Idaho State 53
Some notes and observations:
- Idaho is an interesting team, because they have shown they can beat anyone in the Big Sky, but they can also look so flat at times. They led Southern Utah by 10 midway through the first half, and led by three at the break. Then they came out lifeless in the second half, and trailed by 10 with about five minutes to go. They turned it on at that point, eventually sending the game to OT, but the Thunderbirds recovered for the key win. It's hard to know what team to expect.
- Southern Utah still has a chance to make the final tournament spot (they are 5-9, while Weber State is 6-9 in eighth place), but either way, they are an interesting team. They play so many guys, and their youth was evident at times (especially down the stretch), but they always play hard, and they are certainly getting better. James McGee is a real keeper at guard, and guys like Trey Kennedy, Juwan Major, John Marshall, and Race Parsons all made key plays. I still don't love their chances to go to the Big Sky tourney this year, but pencil them in for next year.
- Montana doesn't do anything flashy, but they continue to pile up wins, now five in a row. They got off to a slow start, but controlled the game from late in the first half on. They are playing a shell of the Weber State team we thought we'd see, but they have a lot of balance. One key for them is that Mike Weisner has struggled a bit in his senior year, but he is showing good signs the last couple of games. Earlier this month I wrote that the Grizzlies are a contender, and it is more true than I even expected. They finish up with three road games (including at Idaho and EWU), but they've been playing better than anyone lately. KenPom now has Martin Breunig rated as the best player in the Big Sky so far this season.
- Sac State didn't get any style points for their win over UND, but at this point in the year, it's all about winning. Cody Demps seems to get better every game - after putting up a stat line of 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists, he threw up a 9:0 assist to turnover ratio on Saturday. Mikh McKinney and Dylan Garrity get a ton of credit, and rightfully so, but Demps is one of the most improved guys in the Big Sky. He is a great glue guy.
- The loss dropped North Dakota to 4-11. Two of their final three games are at home, but it's probably safe to count them out. Ditto for Idaho State, who dropped to 3-12 with a loss to Montana State. Speaking of the Bobcats, it's almost definitely too little too late, but they have won three of four, and are showing some fight. Their schedule is brutal down the stretch (and they would have to run the table), but they are showing the potential of what they can be under Brian Fish.
- Tyler Harvey has had a nightmare three games since returning from his thigh injury, adding a 6/19 stat line on Saturday. I have nothing to suggest it's anything but a standard shooting slump (he played all 40 on Saturday, so I don't think health is an issue), but hopefully he gets back on track. The Eagles need him.
- I wrote about NAU in December and how they are a good team, and they have done a good job of making me look somewhat prescient lately, At 10-4, they have won 7 of 8, and they are still in the race for the title. We know about their defense (they are second in the Big Sky behind Montana), but the offense has come alive a bit more during their hot stretch. On Saturday, they beat EWU even though Quinton Upshur was held to four points. Their big men have been playing well lately, Aaseem Dixon is shooting the ball well, and Kris Yanku is doing a bit of everything for them. They are a very solid team.
- Last, Portland State ran all over Northern Colorado, and now own the fifth seed. They won 91-75, thanks to 51 second half points. Plus, they did it without Braxton Tucker, who left the game early with an injury. Everything that you can possibly do well offensively, they did - from shooting the ball well, getting good shots (sometimes it looked like a layup line), rebounding, and taking care of the ball. It was an all-around offensive effort.
- Northern Colorado is in freefall mode with now, as they've lost four straight games, and now rank 348 out of 351 teams in KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings. It is somewhat mirroring last year, where a solid start was undone when they stopped playing any semblance of defense midway through the year. They have three home games left, and the talent to be a threat to good teams in the Big Sky tournament, but at this point, it's not clear if they care enough on the defensive end to get it done.
Any other thoughts from Saturday or on the Big Sky in general?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Northern Arizona 73, Eastern Washington 69
Montana 74, Weber State 63
Sacramento State 74, North Dakota 66
Portland State 91, Northern Colorado 75
Southern Utah 79, Idaho 77 (OT)
Montana State 67, Idaho State 53
Some notes and observations:
- Idaho is an interesting team, because they have shown they can beat anyone in the Big Sky, but they can also look so flat at times. They led Southern Utah by 10 midway through the first half, and led by three at the break. Then they came out lifeless in the second half, and trailed by 10 with about five minutes to go. They turned it on at that point, eventually sending the game to OT, but the Thunderbirds recovered for the key win. It's hard to know what team to expect.
- Southern Utah still has a chance to make the final tournament spot (they are 5-9, while Weber State is 6-9 in eighth place), but either way, they are an interesting team. They play so many guys, and their youth was evident at times (especially down the stretch), but they always play hard, and they are certainly getting better. James McGee is a real keeper at guard, and guys like Trey Kennedy, Juwan Major, John Marshall, and Race Parsons all made key plays. I still don't love their chances to go to the Big Sky tourney this year, but pencil them in for next year.
- Montana doesn't do anything flashy, but they continue to pile up wins, now five in a row. They got off to a slow start, but controlled the game from late in the first half on. They are playing a shell of the Weber State team we thought we'd see, but they have a lot of balance. One key for them is that Mike Weisner has struggled a bit in his senior year, but he is showing good signs the last couple of games. Earlier this month I wrote that the Grizzlies are a contender, and it is more true than I even expected. They finish up with three road games (including at Idaho and EWU), but they've been playing better than anyone lately. KenPom now has Martin Breunig rated as the best player in the Big Sky so far this season.
- Sac State didn't get any style points for their win over UND, but at this point in the year, it's all about winning. Cody Demps seems to get better every game - after putting up a stat line of 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists, he threw up a 9:0 assist to turnover ratio on Saturday. Mikh McKinney and Dylan Garrity get a ton of credit, and rightfully so, but Demps is one of the most improved guys in the Big Sky. He is a great glue guy.
- The loss dropped North Dakota to 4-11. Two of their final three games are at home, but it's probably safe to count them out. Ditto for Idaho State, who dropped to 3-12 with a loss to Montana State. Speaking of the Bobcats, it's almost definitely too little too late, but they have won three of four, and are showing some fight. Their schedule is brutal down the stretch (and they would have to run the table), but they are showing the potential of what they can be under Brian Fish.
- Tyler Harvey has had a nightmare three games since returning from his thigh injury, adding a 6/19 stat line on Saturday. I have nothing to suggest it's anything but a standard shooting slump (he played all 40 on Saturday, so I don't think health is an issue), but hopefully he gets back on track. The Eagles need him.
- I wrote about NAU in December and how they are a good team, and they have done a good job of making me look somewhat prescient lately, At 10-4, they have won 7 of 8, and they are still in the race for the title. We know about their defense (they are second in the Big Sky behind Montana), but the offense has come alive a bit more during their hot stretch. On Saturday, they beat EWU even though Quinton Upshur was held to four points. Their big men have been playing well lately, Aaseem Dixon is shooting the ball well, and Kris Yanku is doing a bit of everything for them. They are a very solid team.
- Last, Portland State ran all over Northern Colorado, and now own the fifth seed. They won 91-75, thanks to 51 second half points. Plus, they did it without Braxton Tucker, who left the game early with an injury. Everything that you can possibly do well offensively, they did - from shooting the ball well, getting good shots (sometimes it looked like a layup line), rebounding, and taking care of the ball. It was an all-around offensive effort.
- Northern Colorado is in freefall mode with now, as they've lost four straight games, and now rank 348 out of 351 teams in KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings. It is somewhat mirroring last year, where a solid start was undone when they stopped playing any semblance of defense midway through the year. They have three home games left, and the talent to be a threat to good teams in the Big Sky tournament, but at this point, it's not clear if they care enough on the defensive end to get it done.
Any other thoughts from Saturday or on the Big Sky in general?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Friday, February 20, 2015
Don Verlin and Assistant Coach Get Into Heated Exchange on Sideline
Last night during the Idaho/NAU game, Don Verlin and assistant coach Chris Helbling got into a heated exchange that ended with Verlin sending the coach back to the locker room, and reportedly having jim kicked off the team bus as well.
The video can be found here.
Not exactly a great look for Idaho or Coach Verlin. I'll update if there are any more details on the story.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
The video can be found here.
Not exactly a great look for Idaho or Coach Verlin. I'll update if there are any more details on the story.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
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