Billings Among Seven Bids For Big Sky Tournament

From the Billings Gazette this past weekend, Billings has reportedly made an "aggressive" offer to secure the rights to the Big Sky tournament.

As the Big Sky looks to potentially move its tournament to a neutral site which is fixed, the next question is the location. That is where Billings and other cities come in.

MetraPark marketing director Ray Massie said the city has made “an aggressive bid” to the Big Sky for hosting rights. The three-year proposal was submitted to the conference Wednesday by Visit Billings, the tourism arm of the city's Chamber of Commerce.

The cities are either bidding on the men's tournament, women's tournament, or both:

Billings is one of seven locations that have made binding proposals to host either the men’s tournament, the women’s tournament, or both. The city is competing for the men’s tournament with Missoula (in conjunction with the University of Montana), Ogden, Utah (Weber State), Flagstaff, Ariz. (Northern Arizona), Spokane/Cheney, Wash. (Eastern Washington), Greeley/Loveland, Colo. (Northern Colorado), and another neutral site, Reno, Nev.

The bids from Spokane/Cheney, Greeley/Loveland and Reno seek to host combined men’s and women’s tournaments. Spokane/Cheney and Greeley/Loveland have each put in a bid for only the women’s tournament, too.

Missoula has also bid on the women’s tournament, but does not have an interest in being a dual-tournament host.

Of the options, Billings and Reno certainly seem to make the most sense in the fact that they are neutral sites. Of the two, Reno would be "more neutral" given its location, which I would guess would be a big factor.

Another tidbit from the article is that a decision is expected in early March, and that future conference tournaments are expected to include all 12 teams, rather than the eight that will make it this year.

From a basketball standpoint, the current format makes a lot of sense. For conferences like the Big Sky, you want to do everything possible to make sure your best team makes the NCAA Tournament, because a win there will do more for exposure than anything else. That is why I like having a smaller tournament which includes a bye for the top seed, and having it at the location of the top seed.

From a practicality standpoint, a neutral site certainly makes a ton of sense. Not knowing where you are going until the final week can be a big logistical and financial challenge for schools, who likely have fairly limited athletic budgets. Having a predetermined site such as Reno would make that a lot easier.

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Montana is The Big Sky Champion

Stop me if you have heard this before - Montana has beaten Weber State to win the Big Sky Championship. It has to be like a bad, recurring dream for the Wildcats, who have now been ousted by the Grizzlies in the Big Sky tournament for four straight seasons.

It seemed like it was going to be the time that Weber State finally beat Montana and erased the demons. Montana was playing without Mathias Ward, their leading scorer. Will Cherry was not far removed from re-injuring his foot to the point where it was feared it was broken. Statistically, Weber State was the better team this year, with better offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Matchup wise, it seemed like they had a huge edge upfront that would be tough for the Grizzlies to overcome.

None of it mattered. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar simply would not let the Grizzlies lose.

Cherry struggled from the field in the first half, but made big play after big play in the second half. He finished with 18 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals. In a two point game late, it was Will Cherry hitting his only three pointer of the game to give Montana a five point lead. It was Cherry hitting the last two free throws to put Montana up four with 10 seconds left. Time and time again, it was Cherry going to the rim and finishing strong in traffic. He was not going to be denied.

Of course, he had help from Kareem Jamar, the Big Sky Player of the Year and Tournament MVP. He finished with 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. He was aggressive time and time again, overpowering Scott Bamforth (an excellent defender) on the drive and in the post. He was 9/13 from the floor, and make countless big plays in the second half. Jamar and Cherry were the best players on the court.

As always, I am in awe of Wayne Tinkle. Last year, when Montana went 15-1, it was impressive. This year, going 19-1, battling through the injuries and the lack of depth and experience upfront, it was simply an incredible coaching job.All of the credit in the world to Montana. For the second straight year, they are going to the Big Dance. After picking Weber State to win the tournament, I have a lesson learned - never go against Will Cherry, Kareem Jamar, and Wayne Tinkle. Those guys just don't lose.

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What Needs to Happen for a Semifinals Upset?

The Big Sky semifinals are tonight, and both games have a clear favorite. It would be an upset if either Northern Colorado or North Dakota win, but certainly anything can happen in a one game format (just ask the WAC). So with that said, what do those teams need to do to pull an upset? Here are some key things to look for:

Northern Colorado
- Create second chance opportunities. Northern Colorado averaged 17 offensive rebounds per game in the two meetings between these clubs during the season, and so you know this will be a point of emphasis for the Grizzlies. When Derrick Barden and Connor Osborne are active, they are the best offensive rebounding duo in the conference, and Montana is susceptible to allowing offensive boards. The Bears have to get some cheap points off offensive rebounds.
- Tevin Svihovec has to be strong with the ball. Svihovec has been up and down this year, and hasa 22.9 TO Rate, higher than you would like for a PG. He will be matched against Will Cherry, who happens to be one of the best in the Big Sky history at getting steals. Taking care of the basketball will be paramount for the Bears.
- Avoid defensive breakdowns. At times this year, UNC has had a tendency to lose track of their guys, but you can’t do that when you are facing guys like Cherry, Kareem Jamar, and Jordan Gregory. The Bears have looked better defensively in recent weeks, but they have struggled against Montana. In their first meeting, the Grizzlies scored 1.44 points per possession, in the second meeting it was 1.06 PPP. They cannot allow any easy looks.

North Dakota
- Make threes. UND often beats teams with their athleticism, which is why Weber State is a tough matchup for them, because they are one of the few Big Sky teams that can athletically matchup with Troy Huff, Aaron Anderson, and Jamal Webb. To combat that, UND needs to hit threes, which won’t be easy against the Wildcats. In the first two meetings between these teams, UND was a combined 5/18 from deep. That has to change if they are going to have a chance.
- They need strong post defense without having to help too much. In the first meeting, Kyle Tresnak had a huge game, in the second, it was Frank Otis. UND sometimes likes to play four guards at a time, but you can’t do that against WSU or Otis/Tresnak can almost score at will. UND needs guys like Mitch Willmer and Brandon Brekke to step up defensively and stay out of foul trouble.
- Find a way to slow down Davion Berry. He scored at least 20 points in both meetings this year, and makes the Wildcats tough to stop when he is on. WSU has a lot of options, but when you have to put extra attention on Berry, he can hurt you because he is such a good passer as well, and he will find the open guys. I am guessing the assignment will fall to Troy Huff… and he has to do a decent job of containing Berry without help, otherwise the Wildcats are going to score in bunches.

Thoughts? Do UND or UNC have a shot tonight?


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2013 Big Sky Tournament Preview and Predictions

The pairings are set for the 2013 Big Sky Tournament, so let's take a look at things with a preview and some predictions.

Montana was the regular season champion for the second straight season, with their only loss coming on the road to Weber State. The Wildcats finish second, with their only losses coming at Montana and on the road against a lesser opponent. If this sounds familiar, it should - it is essentially the same script from last season.

Last year six teams made the Big Sky tournament... three of the other four teams from last year's tournament are out, meaning there are lots of new faces. Among them is North Dakota and Southern Utah, who are in their first seasons in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona are back after one year absences, while Montana State joins UM and WSU as returning participants.

BIG SKY TOURNAMENT FORMAT - 4 things to know
1. Seven teams make the conference tournament out of the eleven in the conference. That means that four teams - Portland State, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, and Sacramento State will be watching this at home.
2. Since Montana is the regular season champion, they get a first round bye. Even more importantly, the tournament will be in Missoula on their home-court. Given their home-court dominance (more on that later), this is a huge edge for them.
3. After the first round, teams get re-seeded to ensure that the top seed plays the lowest possible seed.
4. All games except for the final are available to watch for free on Big Sky TV. The championship will be on ESPNU.


PAIRINGS
Thursday, March 14
(2) Weber State (18-2) vs. (7) Northern Arizona (8-12 - 3:00 PM Mountain
(3) North Dakota (12-8) vs. (6) Southern Utah (8-12) - 5:30 PM Mountain
(4) Montana State (10-10) vs. (5) Northern Colorado (5-5) - 8:00 PM Mountain

Friday, March 15
(1) Montana (19-1) vs. lowest remaining seed - 8:00 PM Mountain
Second highest seed vs. third highest seed - 5:30 PM Mountain

Saturday, March 16
Big Sky Championship - 7:00 PM Mountain (ESPNU)

FIRST ROUND PREVIEW
(2) Weber State vs (7) Northern Arizona
First two meetings: Weber State won by 13 in Ogden, but needed a miracle finish to beat NAU in Flagstaff in OT.
How Weber State wins: They have to take care of the ball. They had 19 TOs in that game in Flagstaff, while forcing only 12. They have the superior talent, they just need to avoid making silly and careless mistakes that could happen if they start to look ahead.
How Northern Arizona wins: Gabe Rogers needs to have a big day, and he needs help. He has been on a tear the second half of the year, but he has sometimes had to do it alone. Max Jacobsen (playing great of late) and DeWayne Russell need to play their best games of the year.

(3) North Dakota vs (6) Southern Utah
First two meetings: SUU won the first meeting in Cedar City by 12, while UND won last week's matchup by 7 in the regular season finale.
How North Dakota wins: Slow down Jackson Stevenett or Damon Heuir. In the last meeting, Stevenett had only seven points, and the Thunderbirds offense was stagnant all game. UND also has to hit some outside shots, because I am guessing we will see SUU come out and play some zone.
How Southern Utah wins: Find some scoring. Since the suspension of Wade Collie, SUU has had trouble finding offense outside of Heuir and Stevenett. If one of those two guys is having an off night, the Thunderbirds struggle to score enough to win games.

(4) Montana State vs. (5) Northern Colorado
First two meetings: Each team won on each other's home court. MSU beat UNC by 3 in Greeley, while UNC won by 13 in Bozeman.
How Montana State wins: Get some stops. They are 338th in defensive efficiency, which makes it tough to win big games. They also need Flavien Davis and Paul Egwuonwu to keep bringing their A games - both guys have been excellent in the past couple weeks.
How Northern Colorado wins: Take care of the basketball, as this can sometimes be their Achilles heel. Defensively, they have to pay attention to their assignments, as they have a tendency to lose their man. Tevin Svihovec and Connor Osborne need to show up and play big. BJ Hill knows what he will get from Tate Unruh and Derrick Barden, but the play of Osborne and Svihovec is the difference for them.


PREDICTIONS
Just for fun, here is how I see things shaking out.

Quarterfinals
(2) Weber State over (7) Northern Arizona - This game should be interesting due to the fact that NAU made it such a game in their last meeting, but the Wildcats are just too talented to lose this on a neutral court.
(3) North Dakota over (6) Southern Utah - In the regular season finale, UND was locked into the three seed while SUU realistically thought they may have to win to get in. UND's second leading scorer Aaron Anderson played just four minutes. And North Dakota still won. They have more firepower right now, especially with Josh Schuler back in the lineup.
(5) Northern Colorado over (4) Montana State - MSU is a team that is capable of making a long run or losing in the first round. It's hard to know what to expect from them. UNC has looked better defensively in the last couple of weeks. Lack of bench production is a concern, but I like UNC to eek out a win in what should be a very competitive, entertaining game.

Semifinals
(1) Montana over (5) Northern Colorado - The Grizzlies will be well rested, while UNC will have played the night game the previous night. Derrick Barden will pose problems for the Grizzlies (he averaged 19 and 11 in their two meetings), but the Grizzlies are not going to lose this game.
(2) Weber State over (3) North Dakota - Weber State is a bad matchup for UND. With Troy Huff and Jamal Webb, North Dakota is more athletic than a lot of teams, but WSU is not one of those teams. Weber State should win this one handily.

Finals
(2) Weber State over (1) Montana - This would be an exorcism of a lot of demons for Weber State, who have lost to Montana the past three seasons in the Big Sky tournament, including the Anthony Johnson Game. This game is in Missoula, so why the pick of Weber State? Two reasons:

- In the second meeting between these teams (which Weber State won by 24), the Wildcats followed a formula that I think will serve them well again - pound the ball inside. In that game, Kyle Tresnak had 19 points on 8/10 shooting, while Frank Otis had 14 points on 5/7 shooting. Montana has no answer for Weber down low.
- Mathias Ward is out, and Will Cherry may not be 100%. Ward was their leading scorer, and provided a nice complement to the games of Cherry and Kareem Jamar. Cherry missed the start of the year due to a foot injury, got back, re-injured it again, missed four games, and made it back to play in the finale, scoring 14 points. UM needs Cherry and Jamar to be on the top of their games to win this, and that might be too much to ask of them.


RANDOM THINGS TO KNOW
- Will Cherry is playing for Montana, but Mathias Ward is not - It was originally thought that Cherry would miss the rest of the season with a broken foot, while Mathias Ward might make it back for the tournament. Well, Ward had season-ending surgery, while Cherry made it back for Senior Night.
- Ken Pomeroy's rankings say Weber State is the best team - Montana has overtaken the efficiency lead for offense (though Weber State has been the best during conference play), but Weber State is far an away the best defensive team in the conference. Weber's defense 3PA/FGA is best in the country - they just don't allow teams to shoot the three ball against them. The Wildcats also lead the country in 3point shooting percentage. Their KenPom ranking is 90, while Montana is 147.
- Montana is hard to beat at home - By my count, including tournament games, Montana has won 29 straight home conference games. Considering that they will be playing at home for this tournament, that is a pretty important fact.
- Southern Utah and Northern Arizona are trending in the wrong direction - SUU has lost four straight games, and seven straight Big Sky games. Northern Arizona has lost three straight, and is 2-5 in their last seven. If you believe in momentum, this is a bad sign for these teams.
- Montana State could be a darkhorse - I have them losing in round one, so why do I say this? Well, look no further than the top two teams. Other than Montana, MSU is the only team to beat Weber State, as they beat them in Bozeman. Nobody other than Weber State has beaten Montana, but MSU got close. Montana needed a late three to send their game to OT before winning it in the extra frame in Missoula. They will not be intimidated by the top two teams.

What are your thoughts and predictions? Would love to hear what everyone thinks!

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The Big Sky Tournament Is Set

The field has finally been set. As explained in the tiebreaker scenario post earlier, Sacramento State loses the tiebreaker on the three team tie at 8-12. That leaves things looking like this:

Thursday:
(2) Weber State (18-2) vs. (7) Northern Arizona (8-12 - 3:00 pm mountain
(3) North Dakota (12-8) vs. (6) Southern Utah (8-12) - 5:30 pm mountain
(4) Montana State (10-10) vs. (5) Northern Colorado (5-5) - 8:00 pm mountain

Friday:
(1) Montana (19-1) vs lowest remaining seed - 5:30 pm mountain
Second highest seed vs. third highest seed - 8:00 pm mountain

Saturday:
Big Sky Championship

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