Friday, May 9, 2014

Early 2014-15 Big Sky Rankings

It's that time of the offseason where we take a VERY early look to how next season will play out. Since I've started blogging about the Big Sky (three years ago), there was always one or two favorites to win (Weber State and/or Montana). Next season, that won't be the case.

Honestly, to me, the top seven teams look remarkably even. It is going to be an absolutely wide open race for the Big Sky title, which should be pretty fun. So, if you disagree with these rankings, I don't blame you. Would love to hear thoughts and reasoned opinions on where you differ - I think it'd be very interesting to see what people think, because it was hard to come up with an order!

1. Weber State
They are first in part because they are the defending champions, they return a lot of talent (even though they also lose a lot), and there is no other clear favorite. But, it's clear they won't be the favorites as in some past seasons. For one, they will have one senior on the team, relying a lot on young guys. Second, they will be relying on guys to grow in ways they haven't shown yet. The good news is that the talent is there. Joel Bolomboy could be the conference POY - an NBA level rebounder and defender whose offensive game continues to develop. They need their sophomore backcourt of Jeremy Senglin and Richaud Gittens to make the leap from super talented freshmen contributors to cornerstones - a process that will happen, but it's just a matter of how long it takes. Would it be a surprise to see the Wildcats win the Big Sky again next season? No. But unlike past year, it also wouldn't be a surprise if they are in a dogfight just to finish in the top four.

2. Sacramento State
The Hornets get my vote for second based on the strength of their backcourt, which was arguably the best in the conference last season, and will be the best this season. Both Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney are superb ballhandlers, scorers, and passers. Garrity may be the elite shooter in the Big Sky, while McKinney is excellent at breaking down a defense, getting into the lane, and getting to the line. The key will be frontcourt production. They have a nice recruiting class, but they can't count too much on those guys this season. Zach Mills is a nice player, and he will produce. The key will be Eric Stuteville, who came on strong at the end of his freshman season. If he can develop into a double digit scorer (and he has that talent level), the Hornets should have the best offense in the Big Sky.

3. Northern Arizona
Last year, I think, was almost a year ahead of schedule for the Lumberjacks. They finished third in the Big Sky, an impressive showing considering their age and inexperience. They lose Max Jacobsen, but the rest of their main guys returns. They will have a strong backcourt with Aaseem Dixon, Kris Yanku, and Quinton Upshur, and guys like Ako Kaluna and Len Springs will be even better inside. Head coach Jack Murphy has done a great job recruiting, and they should have the athletes and talent to compete for a Big Sky title next season.

4. Montana
There are reasons to think this is too optimistic. They weren't that good last year (despite finishing fourth, they had major issues), and they lose do everything Kareem Jamar. But take them lightly at your own peril. For one, their backcourt will remain strong - Jordan Gregory and Keron DeShields will be a solid senior duo, and Mario Dunn is ready to become a star in the Big Sky. The other thing is that the frontcourt will be much better than in past year. Martin Breunig will become eligible, and he was the best post man in the program last season. They also have young bigs coming in, which will greatly help the depth. Bottom line, the Grizzlies lose Jamar, but they could be an improved team anyway.

5. Eastern Washington
The Eagles return everyone from last year's squad, which is good for a team that improved by three conferences games from the year before and was 5th in the conference offensively. They will have tons of weapons, including guard Tyler Harvey, who developed into possibly the best scorer in the conference. They have balance as well, with guys like Venky Jois, Martin Seiferth, and Ognjen Miljkovic in the frontcourt. Like others, the Eagles absolutely are talented enough to win the Big Sky.

6. Northern Colorado
The Bears probably head up the "second tier," but they are still a really talented team, even after losing some cornerstone players. Tevin Svihovec has been around forever, and he'll be the senior leader. Of course, they won't be hurting for backcourt talent - Jordan Wilson was steady as a freshman PG, Corey Spence adds a spark, and eligible transfer Cam Michael is ready to play after sitting out a year (and don't be surprised if he is the Newcomer of the Year). The key to the year might be senior forward Tim Huskisson, who is an all-conference talent when things are going well. The problem has been staying in BJ Hill's good graces and bringing consistency every night. If he does, UNC can and will beat anyone on any given night.

7. Portland State
With the way the Vikings finished and the fact that they don't lose that many guys, this may be too low. They will have a deep backcourt, with guys like Gary Winston, Tim Douglas, Marcus Hall, and DaShaun Wiggins all proven contributors. The key will be the frontcourt, where they lose Kyle Richardson, but will hopefully have a healthy Tiegba Bamba and some solid JUCO guys coming in. Their defense was better last year but still just seventh in the Big Sky last year. If they can get even a little better there, the ceiling could be a top 3 Big Sky finish.

8. Idaho
I looked at them in more depth a couple weeks ago, but they look like a typical Big Sky team - they can put points on the boards, but they won't get too many stops. They lose two of their top six, but return Connor Hill, who could be one of the best shooters in the Big Sky in his first season in the conference. During WAC play, they were worst in the conference in defensive efficiency. How they do on that end will determine if they are battling for the final tournament spot, or if their sights should be set a little higher.

9. Idaho State
They lose Tomas SanchezAndre Hatchett, and Aviabkuro Preh, who were a huge part of the program and are a lot to replace. As I have said, I think Bill Evans is an excellent coach, but we knew it would take time to build the talent level of the program back up. There are question marks heading into this season - who plays point guard? But there is talent with guys like Chris Hansen and Jeffrey Solarin, and they should be good enough to being on the edge of conference tournament qualification.

10. Montana State
The Bobcats lose three starters (including their top two frontcourt players) and their head coach, so clearly there is some work to be done. Brian Fish looks like a nice fit on paper, so we will see how the first season of his reign goes. He made a quick statement by signing two solid athletes out of Arizona, but the problem in Bozeman lately has not been getting good players to campus, but molding them into a good team. Expectations should be tempered in year one, but the Bobcats could have enough talent to be frisky.

11. North Dakota
All UND is losing is the best class in program history, and the one that brought them into the DI level. They can't replace guys like Troy Huff, Aaron Anderson, Jamal Webb, and others, so this is a team that will look very different. Brian Jones will need a backcourt of Quinton Hooker and Cole Stefan to log a lot of productive minutes for UND, who will be replacing the majority of their scoring from one of the most experienced teams in the country last season. It is a rebuilding year in Grand Forks.

12. Southern Utah
They will be much improved from last year's team, but this is still a program with a long ways to go. They have young guys that they hope can be cornerstone players - the five guys that played the most minutes last season are all returning, and none of them will even be seniors this year(!), but this year will be about continuing that growth and building toward 2015-16. If they improve their Big Sky win total by five games and continue to show the growth that was evident throughout last season, they might finish last again, but their rebuilding plan will be right on schedule for Nick Robinson.

Please share any of your thoughts and opinions! As I've said, this is all guesswork, but one of the most fun articles to write and think about. Would love to hear some discussion.

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35 comments:

  1. Good article...... Who do you see as the top 3 recruits in the BSC from the class of 2014?

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  2. I am a little behind with my evaluation of the recruits, to be honest, so I don't even know. Hopefully I can answer that one a bit later.

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  3. Zach Braxton and Jeremiah Jefferson are two of the best and they are on one team. Sac has a couple of nice looking recruits. UND getting Carson Shanks from Utah State is a great addition and Cam Michael at Northern Colorado. Those would be my top picks. Oh, Northern Arizona will have two guys in 2015-16 transferring who look to be pretty solid recruits. But that is a season away. How Jack Murphy gets so many transfers is absolutely incredible.

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  4. really Mason Stuteville is probably the best recruit, he was offered scholarships by 3 Pac 10 schools and chose Sac State.

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  5. This is a pretty accurate pre-season ranking of the Big Sky Conf. Weber State seems like the favorite to win the conference again but not by much. If one team can challenge them, that is Sac State. In CBB, a good back court is vital to winning games and make deep tournament runs, and that is what Sac State have. Though incoming Freshman classes in the Big Sky recent history has not make much impact the first year, SAC incoming classes is fill with 3 (2) Stars recruit per ESPN recruiting website, that is quite impressive for any Big Sky Team. Their recruits, like Mason Stuteville should be able to contribute right away like his older brother, Eric. Recruited by lower-tier PAC12 schools, Stuteville chose to team up with his brother to make a run at the Big Sky title. Their other recruits aren't too shabby either, with many of them highly decorated in high schools in California. Watch out for Idaho, don't sleep on them, they have a few talented recruits coming in, and historically, they were a dominant team in the BSC and were on the same teir as Weber and Montana. And do not forget, not too long ago, they played in the same conference (WAC) as now basketball power-house MWC Utah State/Boise State. They should be able to recruit the Pacific Northwest without a problem.

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  6. I really think the front runner is Sac State. No offense to Weber, but the guys they have returning, other then Senglin, not one of them was a starter. With the Hornets E. Stuteville was developing nicely in Big Sky play. He can hit the outside shot 16-17 ft out. He can rebound really well too. Also congrats to Coach Katz getting a recruiting class of nothing but freshmen. Don't believe that's ever happened at Sac State before.

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    1. I can't argue too much about Sac State... but for Weber, just want to add that big man Bolomboy was a full-time starter and one of the best rebounders in the country, and their other guard (Gittens) was starting by the end of the year as well. But there is no question they are vulnerable.

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  7. Isn't this great thay people are finally talking about Sac State, Coach Katz is doing a wonderful job of coaching and recruiting! And with this attendance and following is at a all-time high...PROUD TO BE A HORNET :-)

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  8. One thing I wish as a Sac State fan is that Coach Katz really push to recruit harder in the Sacramento region. The Greater-Sacramento Area is a HOT-BED for college basketball recruiting. Every year tons of talented area players booted for greener-pasture at bigger "BCS" / high-major schools. For example, San Diego State is living off the Sacramento Region, recruiting players to help them consistently make deep runs in the NCAA tournament. If you look at their roster, everyone who has make an impact for Coach Fisher in the leading role is from the Sacramento region (with the exception of Kawahi Leonard). I know it is going to be difficult to get ESPN100 players like (Dakari Allen 2013/Malik Pope 2014) to come to a low-major like Sacramento State, but I truly believe, if Coach Katz push hard enough, one of these talented players in the with choose to stay at home at play for the local school (i.e Cody Demps).

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  9. Lately, Sac has been showing signs of improvement only to fall flat at the end of the season. As a Weber fan I have pulled for them to do better and they did last year. Katz is to be commended for his ability to recruit to such a poor facility, as the Hornets Nest. Every Jr High in Utah, that I have been to, has a better facility than Sac. To me it is amazing that any D1 recruits want to play there. If Hornet fans want better recruits they should start raising real money to get a new facility, and fast. It's time to put up or shut up. I predict that Sac will never win a championship until they get a facility at least as good as Salt Lake Community College's. It would be totally embarrassing for the BSC tournament to be in that building. Have a little pride Sacramento and get this fixed.

    oldrunner

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    1. that's a bunch of crap oldruner. The Hornets Nest may be old, but they have a very good home advantage there 11-3 this year. Katz is able to recruit because one, Sacramento is a hot bed for basketball and two, because they believe in Katz and the family atmosphere is bringing there. Don't be a hater just because Sac is right on Weber's heals. If you don't have anything nice to say about our program, then shut it!

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    2. It is a little ignorant to say "put up or shut up" when it has to do with financing a new arena. Putting the lack of a legitimate arena on the shoulder of fans (majority of which are struggling college students) in this case is laughable. Majority if not all the arena in D1 sports are funded by the state, institution and alumni (tax purposes) and are not by fans. Come to think of it, how much did you raise to help build the very nice arena at Weber State? Uh huh, yea......and as for winning a championship, if Sac will never win one, it will not be because of the arena. Last time I checked, every court and hoop is the same length no matter where the arena is. Though it is true that the Sac State nest is laughable, but to say that the fans of Sac State basketball has no pride is just simply a poor and uneducated comment.

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    3. oldrunner, do us a favor and don't show up when the BSC tournament is hosted at Hornets Nest since you don't like it here. Now that Sac State is playing better, bringing in more fans and attracting better recruits now, this would be a good time to get something like this going but this has nothing to do with them winning a championship, they are close now.

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    4. I don't know how Sac St is "close" to winning a championship when they barely get into the Big Sky tournament; you're putting the cart before the horse.

      If they go 12-8 in conference this year, that'll be a big accomplishment; make the tourney again and win a game there would be about all you can expect from the Hornets.

      Win a championship? You are a "dreamer".

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  10. Obviously^^^ You haven't watch enough Big Sky basketball. Half the league have almost identical league records and all crawed their way too the tournament last season. Even Weber! And if you've actually watched the first round game between UND and SAC (not saying that SAC got snub by the refs), but the ball could have roll either way that game. And UND ended up in the Championship game. Reason that many are high on SAC is because of their constant improvement and returning of an All-Conderence backcourt with the additiob of emerging front court/high touted recruiting class. No one is saying that they will "for-sure" win it, but atleast give credit to where credit is due.

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    1. Oh, I watched a bunch of Big Sky games throughout the season plus all the Sac State games and that is why I know that Sac State won't be winning any championship this year; they can't play on the road or at altitude. You've got to be able to win more than a couple road games to compete for the title in every league in the country - period and Sac State has shown that they just can't do it. Almost winning isn't winning!

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    2. I can't argue with you regarding Sac State winning on the road, they did stink and need to get better before they even think about winning the Big Sky!

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  11. The entire amount to build the Dee Event Center was raised through donations. It was not State tax dollars that built it. And, having better facilities has everything to do with attracting better talent and winning championships. So, don't go blaming your coach for not recruiting better players, when the community has not stepped up to fund better facilities. Last year, if Garrity doesn't hit a 75 ft desperation shot, with no time left on the clock, Sac isn't even in the tournament. So, now to boast that you are the top dog is a bit illogical.

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    1. I'm very happy with the players Sac State has recruited, and was done so with our crappy arena. I'm sorry but I haven't seen anyone complain about the players/coaching job Katz is doing. The only reason we are boasting is because we have the best back court in the Big Sky and didn't lose anyone, plus recruited three 2-star players as freshman. If the refs weren't pulling so hard for Weber with all of those calls it wouldn't have some down to that 75 fter.

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  12. The entire amount was raised through donations? If im not mistaken, half of it was build through "private fundings & revenue bonds" i might be wrong on that one. But why is this Weber State fan such a hater? As a Montana fan, weve won more championship the past half-decade than Weber. And even I appreciate competition from smaller schools like Sacramento State. Stop hating...you're showing very little class. Keep doing your thing Sacramento State.

    GrizFan

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    1. Thanks GrizFan, appreciate the love and same back at you. Good question as to why the hate from the Weber State fan??

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  13. If you read what I said, I said that I back what coach Katz has done there, with little to work with. I don't hate anyone. I want them to succeed. I just feel that they need a little more support from their community, to get an upgrade in facilities. One of the Sac fans was complaining about Katz's inability to get the local talent. I was just pointing out that it is not entirely his fault. He has done an outstanding job in the face of adversity. Now, the community needs to back him up with their pocketbooks. Talk is cheap.

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    1. You are right; Sac State will never be able to get the "best" players in the Sacramento area due to the junior high facility where there is little hope of ever getting anything better built and due to the fact that the Hornets can't even produce a team over .500. Who would want to play for Sac State and not even make the conference tourney when you can go to San Diego State and be in March Madness every year? It's a no brainer- the best players won't go to Sac St no matter where they are from until they get a "real" gym.

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    2. for your argument, who want to play at any Big Sky schools when you go to San Diego State and be by the Ocean and play in March Madness!

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    3. In fairness to Sac State, if San Diego State (in this example) is recruiting a guy, NOBODY in the Big Sky has much of a chance, except maybe Weber State (based on past history). Mid-major teams don't win by out-recruiting the big guys.

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  14. You worry to much about other communities. You have to have success and attendance first before you just raise capital to build, and that is just now starting to take place. That is just one Sac State complaining about local talent, I don't care where the talent comes from as long as we get it, then money will come.

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  15. I care about growing the BSC.

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  16. LOL the BSC would NEVER let the tournament be at the Hornet's Nest. If Sac ever somehow finishes 1st, they would have to find a larger arena in the Sacramento area.

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    1. The BSC new what they we're getting when the let Sac State in. I'm sure if that time comes where the tournament is in Sac that they may try and use the Sac Kings arena

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  17. When PSU won the regular season championship, they housed the tournament in the Rose Garden once and the other time in the older stadium (I believe Memorial Stadium). However, UNC played at the Butler-Hancock Pavilion when they won, so, who knows. I think it is a combination of distance and availability. There really isn't anything close to Greeley that was available. Whereas, Portland being a major metropolis, has far more available venues, much like Sacramento would have if Sac St. were to win. I thought the Hornets were getting an upgraded stadium. Is it no longer happening? The Stott is for sure happening. Work was suppose to start this summer up at PSU. That is going to be a great facility. Pretty cool for the Vikings. It would be great for Sacramento State and the Hornets to get an upgrade to the Nest.

    As for recruits. For Sac St., Katz has signed a really nice looking recruiting class. However, and this needs to be noted, most of the newbs are not going to contribute much, or be that instrumental in the Hornets campaign next season. For Hornet fans, they need to focus on the returning players. Yes, the Freshman bring depth and some talent (sorry I think Weber has a far better recruiting class with three three star recruits and a JUCO All-American coming in, but admittedly I am a homer and a Weber State fan.) which will help the Hornets, but the bulk of the hope rests solely on the shoulders of Garrity, Stuteville the Senior, McKinney, and Tiffin. Katz would love to have a Dickson type player available to play the 3 right now. That is Sac's Achilles heel. Eastern, UNC, UM, NAU, and Weber all return talent and experienced starters next year. Sac is going to be good, and could win the conference, but it won't be a cake walk. That goes for any of the top Big Sky teams.

    Tal

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  18. There is no way the Big Sky tournament could be held at the nest. Besides the arena formerly known as Arco, where could you hold it? Getting the State of California to build anything right now is difficult. Besides hosting it in Ogden, I would love to see Sac host next year. Katz is doing a great job right now. I think he is in the top 3 coaches in the conference. Weber Rob

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    1. Your right Weber Rob, Sleep Train Arena (formerly know as Arco) is the only place to hold it next year. After next year the Kings will move into their brand new arena, so it isn't impossible getting something built in California

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  19. Just for clarification.....the score was tied in overtime when Garrity made the 75 fter. Sac had outplayed Weber all night and deserved to win. No mention of the 30 ft prayer by Barry to tie the game huh?????

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  20. Also if Weber State's best player doesn't go 2-4 from the line with 11 secs left (cough cough) Sac would have NEEDED to make the 75ft shot for the win. Thanks Davion.

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  21. To say Katz is a top 3 coach in that league is laughable....See overall record and how many of those wins are against D1,D2 or NAIA lower level teams. Nice recruiting class but if he doesn't win this year it isn't ever going to happen there! Too bad the alumni can't afford to buy him out or get a new arena...

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