Here is a list of the transfers in and out of the Big Sky, as far as I can tell, and as of today (April 17).
Transfers In:
- Geremy McKay - Eastern Washington (PF from Albany)
- Chaz Glotta - Northern Colorado (SG from Southern Illinois)
- Dallas Anglin - Northern Colorado (PG from Southern Miss)
Transfers Out:
- Ognjen Miljkovic (Eastern Washington)
- Sekou Wiggs (Idaho)
- Marcus Bradley (Idaho State)
- Ian Fox (Idaho State) - to Long Beach College (midseason transfer)
- Terrell Brown (Montana State)
- Bradley Fisher (Montana State)
- Joey Frenchwood (Montana State)
- Daniel Nwosu (Montana)
- Kraig Shields (North Dakota)
- Josiah Coleman (North Dakota)
- Geoff Frid (Northern Arizona)
- Chris Miller (Northern Arizona) (midseason transfer)
- Drew Bender (Northern Colorado)
- Riak Bol (Northern Colorado)
- Dorian Cason (Portland State)
- Braxton Tucker (Portland State)
- Iziahiah Sweeney (Portland State)
- Austin Waddoups (Southern Utah) - to Dixie State
- Chris Golden (Weber State)
- Jaylen Johnson-Coston (Weber State)
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Showing posts with label Portland State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Portland State. Show all posts
Friday, April 17, 2015
Monday, April 13, 2015
Early 2015-16 Big Sky Rankings
OK, so we don't yet know who might be leaving their current programs, and recruiting classes aren't fully finalized in some cases... but that doesn't mean it's too early for some Big Sky rankings for next season!
Let me state the obvious caveat - everything is conjecture at this point. I would love to hear the dissenting opinions, because next year should be a fun year in the Big Sky, as always. Please let me know where you think I am right or wrong... I don't really have anything to base this off of except my own thoughts and opinions, so I don't know if my views are common or not.
The Big Sky was very deep this season, though there was no dominant team. You could see this in the conference tournament, where even the number eight seed Weber State had a legit shot at the title. There was a lot of balance this year. Next season, there still doesn't seem to be a dominant team (more on that in the previews), but there also doesn't seem to be quite the depth that there was this season, at least at first glance.
To be honest, I had a really difficult time trying to rank teams from 6-11... I almost feel like you could draw them from a hat, and you could make a case that it is a reasonable ranking. To me, there doesn't seem to be a lot of separation between those teams. Each has a lot of flaws and question marks at this juncture, granting that there is a lot of time left to go before the start of next season.
Also, I have updated the recruiting tracker, so hopefully that looks a little more up to date...
1. Weber State
Losses: James Hajek, Chris Golden, Jaylen Johnson-Coston
It was a disappointing year for the Wildcats, as they were the preseason pick to win the league, and they wound up sneaking into the tournament as the eight seed. However, next season should be much better. For one, the losses should be minimal, as James Hajek is the only senior, and then they lose two transfers. However, they weren't super young either - most of their production came from sophomores and juniors - so they will be flush with upperclassmen as well. The biggest name is Joel Bolomboy, who might never be the offensive force we want him to be, but is still a darn good player that can be the best shot blocking/rebounding force in the conference. Jeremy Senglin is still one of the most talented guys in the Big Sky, and Kyndahl Hill and Richaud Gittens are as athletic as anyone. There will be no shortage of upperclassmen talent.
All of this isn't to say that there is a lack of young talent as well. Weber State has been excellent recruiting, and reinforcements should make next year's team very deep. Ryan Richardson will be a sophomore, and he showed flashes of being a major threat stretching the floor. Jeremiah Jefferson redshirted this season, and he will be another athletic presence in the backcourt as a guy who can light it up from outside, or get to the rim. It is really a beneficial thing that they were able to redshirt him, and he should be dynamic. Up front, Zach Braxton redshirted as well, and he is a guy that could have made an impact as a true freshman for a lot of programs. He is a true post that will add depth and talent to a frontcourt that at times lacked size. That is not even including any incoming players who could potentially contribute.
Weber State took a one year step back, but they are primed to be right back in the thick of the title race again next season. With the likely departure of Tyler Harvey to the NBA Draft, it's reasonable to crown them at least as co-favorites, along with Montana and Eastern Washington.
2. Montana
Losses: Jordan Gregory, Mike Weisner, Chris Kemp
The co-champions only lose one starter, but he is a guy that will be tough to replace. Among all of their perimeter players, Gregory was the shot maker, and the guy that got the ball in crunch time. Mario Dunn has the talent to potentially evolve into that role, but his offensive skillset is not there yet.
The best thing Montana has going for them is big man Martin Breunig, a unanimous first team guy who almost beat the Eagles by himself in the Big Sky title game. He is dynamic in all phases, with the ability to hit midrange shots, put the ball on the floor and finish, and be one of the best rebounders in the Big Sky. He's a star. The Robin to his Batman is Dunn, who should win a defensive POY award before his career is out, and made a lot of strides offensively. If he can cut down on turnovers and develop a consistent outside shot that teams have to be wary of, he is a first-team all-conference type of player. He spearheads a Grizzlies defense that was the best in the Big Sky this year.
The role players are there too, as they always are for the Grizzlies. Brandon Gfeller could be the best shooter in the Big Sky next year (he shot 197 threes this year compared to 19 two-point attempts). Fabijan Krslovic was very steady as a freshman, and guys like Riley Bradshaw and Jack Lopez should be solid role players. The key will be replacing that production from Gregory, which will have to be a group effort. If they can do that, and if Dunn develops as expected, the Grizzlies have the pieces in place (including a top notch defensive mindset) to make another run at the Big Sky title.
3. Eastern Washington
Losses: Drew Brandon, Parker Kelly, Garrett Moon, Tyler Harvey
Before the news broke that Tyler Harvey would be entering the draft, I speculated in this now-rewritten section that EWU would be a unanimous selection as the preseason number one team in the Big Sky. Now, they are certainly still in the conversation (and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them number one), but I've dropped them down a couple spots.
The strength of the team will be up front. Everyone knows Venky Jois, who does a bit of everything on both ends for the Eagles. He shot over 60% on twos, rebounds on both ends as well as most guys in the Big Sky, and is one of the best shot blockers in the Big Sky. He has a good handle for a big man. Other than shooting free throws, there isn't much he can't do. You could argue he was even more valuable than Harvey for the Eagles last year.
Joining him up front is Bogdan Bliznyuk, who should be ready to absolutely take off as a sophomore. He is an extremely efficient scorer (he shot 58% on twos and 24/43 from three) who always seems to be under control. He is an excellent rebounder as well. With the ball in his hands a bit more this year, he could average something like 16 and 7. He will be fun to watch. Ognjen Miljkovic will be back up front, and though he was up and down at times, skilled big men who score 10 PPG, can shoot from three, and will bang with the big men down low defensively don't grow on trees. Felix Van Hofe will be a junior, and provides more shooting range for EWU.
The questions facing the Eagles come in the backcourt, after losing their top three guys there. Everyone knows about Harvey, but Drew Brandon did a bit of everything for them, and Parker Kelly was a dangerous shooter and steady player for them. It's going to be very tough to replace all of those guys. Sir Washington will likely start at one of the guard spots, after an impressive freshman year. He didn't play a lot as he missed time due to injury, but he was a high-energy, athletic player (he sparked them in the NCAA Tournament game). He will probably get all of the minutes he can handle.
Among newcomers, Will Ferris will be in the mix after redshirting last year. He projects to be able to play both guard positions, and would add another excellent shooter to the mix. A final candidate is incoming freshman Michael Wearne, who hails from Australia (where else?). Wearne is one of the top PG prospects from Australia, and put up some eye popping numbers over there. It's always difficult to predict freshmen production, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see him starting at PG and excelling right away.
When you put it together, nobody will be able to match the size and talent that the Eagles will have in the frontcourt, with multiple all-conference candidates up there. The key for them will be growth of young guards. If those guys develop (and Hayford has usually been able to get guard production), then the Eagles can win the Big Sky title again, even with some big losses.
4. Northern Arizona
Losses: Quinton Upshur, Aaseem Dixon, Len Springs
There is a fair amount of speculation in putting NAU this high, because they are losing two of their top three scorers (and leading shot blocker, and a four year guy in Gaellen Bewernick who has started most of his career), but don't necessarily have guys currently on the roster to replace them. They lost one backup guard to transfer this year, and another to academic ineligibility (who may be able to return). They are not a super deep team this season, often playing only seven guys, so they are losing over half of their main rotation.
Still, I feel comfortable putting them this high for a couple reasons. One, they even with the losses, they return arguably their two most important players. The first is PG Kris Yanku, who grew into a Big Sky first-team guy as a sophomore, and always seems to be in control of the offense. He is not a great outside shooter, and may never be, but he has the ability to almost get into the lane whenever he wants, draw a ton of fouls (7th in the country in the rate he draws fouls), and find open teammates (his 38.2 Assist Rate ranks 10th in the country. If he is able to score more efficiently (he shot an ugly 35% on twos this season), he can be the Big Sky player of the year. Their defensive anchor is Jordyn Martin, who was the Defensive POY this year. Martin isn't a big shot-blocker, but he's always in the right spot. Offensively, he is an excellent rebounder, and efficient finisher, shooting 58% this year.
Those two are joined by Ako Kaluna, one of the most skilled big men in the Big Sky. He can handle the ball, bang down low, but also hit from the outside, as he shot 43% on threes this year. With guys like those three, and expected improvement of Zachary Reynolds and Tate de Laveaga, the returning talent isn't as bare as it might seem.
NAU will be able to supplement this talent with six freshmen, a class that has been lauded by those who know more than me when it comes to recruits. It's impossible to say which of these guys will contribute, but I feel confident saying that some will. NAU has made a lot of strides in the three years under Jack Murphy, and while next year's team may not be quite as good as last year, they should still be a talented team that could be a Big Sky favorite entering 2016.
5. Southern Utah
Losses: Cal Hanks, Tyler Rawson (to LDS Mission), Austin Waddoups
Not only were they a young team last year, but Nick Robinson gave everyone a ton of playing time. For a long time, their bench played more minutes than anyone else in the country... They finished the year playing 44.8% of the team's minutes, fourth most in the nation. The loss of Cal Hanks will not hurt, but Tyler Rawson gave them a lot of good minutes this year. They are bringing in three frontcourt guys, so they should be able to put enough bodies in there and see what sticks in the frontcourt.
They have a ton of potential guards, so you can see why they didn't go for any in recruiting. AJ Hess can play the two or three, and is probably their best offensive guy with his shooting and size. He just keeps getting better, and will be a senior. James McGee was spectacular as a freshman with his shooting range - he made over 50% of his threes, which is remarkable. Nobody is talking about him, but he was quietly outstanding.
Trey Kennedy and Juwan Major are two guys who have the physical skills to be really good, but they haven't separated themselves through two seasons. Kennedy shot just 40% on twos this year, and Major had a 28.7 TO Rate. They need one of these guys to take a leap. John Marshall and Race Parsons are two other guys who will be juniors and while they have some flaws, they can be rotation pieces.
The reason I don't think they are a top tier yet is because nobody really stands out as a star to me. When you look at teams above them, there are guys that are potentially all-conference players there (Harvey, Jois, Yanku, Breunig, Senglin, Bolomboy, etc), but when I look at this SUU roster, I'm not sure who that guy would be. You can win a conference title with a lot of good players, but it helps to have a great player or two thrown in. We'll see if one develops for the Thunderbirds over the next couple of seasons.
6. Northern Colorado
Losses: Tevin Svihovec, Tim Hukisson, Dominique Lee, Corey Spence
The past couple of seasons had to be frustrating for the UNC staff, as the team was good enough offensively to make serious waves, but never got it together defensively. For the second straight year, they lose some key pieces, including four of their top six in minutes played. Of course, the cupboard still isn't bare.
Their backcourt will still be very solid, as Cam Michael and Jordan Wilson enter their junior seasons. Michael was one of the best newcomers in the conference this season, a great shooter with a quick release and ability to create his own shot. He shot 39% from downtown this season, and will slide over to become more of a focal point in the offense. Wilson is probably the fastest player in the Big Sky, and he uses that quickness to get in the lane, and pressure opponents defensively all over the court. He may never be a true distributor, but he takes great care of the ball, and can hit from the outside. Anthony Johnson will also be in for an expanded role. He was very efficient scoring the ball, but it was in very limited minutes.
The frontcourt has some solid players, though nobody that really stands out as a star. Cody McDavis and Jeremy Verhagen are both big bodies that can score efficiently, but neither has stood out as an above average rebounder or rim protector. Spencer Mathis played sparingly as a freshman, and he could be a combo 3/4 guy depending on his development.
Of the newcomers that they have signed up so far, Jordan Davis looks like he could be a really good player. He originally committed to EWU, and is excellent ballhandling and attacking the rim. When Wilson entered the program as a freshman two years ago, he split time with Corey Spence, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar arrangement, with Davis now splitting time with Jordan Wilson. They also will get transfer Dallas Anglin in from Southern Miss, who I assume will be eligible in the second semester, and he can fill some backcourt minutes as well.
All of this is to say that UNC will likely be able to score the ball next year, as they always do under BJ Hill. But, we'll have to see if they can build a championship contending defense out of the group. I'm not sure the pieces are there for that.
7. Portland State
Losses: Gary Winston, DaShaun Wiggins, Tim Douglas, Tiegbe Bamba, Brandon Cataldo
The six through eleven logjam is typified by Portland State. They are losing a lot of talented guys, and there aren't necessarily many obviously replacements on the roster. As a change from some previous years, they look to be strongest in the frontcourt, where Collin Spickerman and Braxton Tucker both return. Spickerman was an interesting player... He was not a great offensive force, but he was strong on the glass (especially offensively), and he was 12th in the country in his block rate. Tucker is a little more of an offensive presence, as he shot over 50%, and was really missed when he was hurt.
The backcourt will be more interesting, because there are a lot of unknowns. Zach Gengler played the most among returning guys, and he is a guy that shoots the ball well. He was also pretty good as a defensive rebounder for a guard. They will need him to play a bigger offensive role. Iziahiah Sweeney got some time as a freshman, and while he is raw, flashed some skills. He needs to improve his outside shots, and he wasn't much of a distributor, but they like him. Sebastian Suarez could also get some time as a senior... He was billed as a great shooter but hasn't seen a lot of playing time.
The Vikings will also get transfer guard Calaen Robinson eligible. He transferred from Arizona State, and sat out last season. While Robinson didn't do much for ASU, he was the 19th best PG recruit coming out of high school. You don't need to look any further than Montana this year to see the impact a major program transfer can have. Bryce White will also be back. He only played 13 games last year because of injury, but he averaged 9.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game when he was playing. A core of Robinson-White-Spickerman-Tucker is pretty solid.
Part of the reason I have them as high as seven is because Tyler Geving is always very active on the juco market. While I worry about that strategy and how it works for overall team building, it should help to ensure they don't sink too low. We will see what kinds of players he is able to get from the junior college ranks.
8. North Dakota
Losses: Jaron Nash, Lenny Antwi, Chad Calcaterra, Ryan Salmonsen, Josiah Coleman, Kraig Shields
The sheer number of players leaving the program (either through graduation or transfer) is a bit exhausting, but it's not as bad as it looks. The biggest name is Jaron Nash, and though he was a very talented guy who could do a lot of things, at times he may have hurt the offense more than helped it. The other notable loss is Lenny Antwi, who followed up three OK years with a very solid senior season that saw him become a more consistent outside threat.
However, they still have some guys, especially in the backourt. Quinton Hooker took the big step forward that many people thought he would as a sophomore, becoming a steady PG with improved scoring punch. He will be an all-conference candidate type of player next year, and is easily their most important guy. He is joined in the backcourt by two transfers from last year who will be seniors - Estan Tyler and Terrell de Rouen. Tyler has the ability to be a very good scorer with a dangerous outside shot. De Rouen is the better defender of the two, but he shots a miserable 30% on over 100 threes last year - which quickly makes you a net negative offensively. Dustin Hobaugh is another guy that will get minutes, and can hit shots from anywhere on the court.
Up front is where there will be more question marks. The anchor will likely be Carson Shanks, who became eligible in the second semester last year, and flashed some skills. He was solid rebounding the ball, and showed some shot blocking chops. They are expecting growth from him. Bryce Cashman got some minutes as a freshman, and had an interesting time. He was 22/36 from the floor (great), but 8/24 from the free throw line (yeesh).
In the recruits that they have signed so far, it seems like there was an emphasis on wings, and they got some talented guys. I expect they will sign a JUCO big man or two to provide some depth and talent in the frontcourt, with immediate playing time being a lure for them.
After reaching the Big Sky title game two years, they predictably took a step back as guys graduated. However, they have more talent than you might think, and should compete in the middle of the Big Sky next season.
9. Sacramento State
Losses: Dylan Garrity, Mikh McKinney, Zach Mills, Alex Tiffin
This may be a little low after the best year in school history, but Garrity and McKinney did so much for the program, and they will be extremely difficult to replace. Also gone is Zach Mills, who was an underrated contributor in the frontcourt, and had the ability to play multiple positions.
The torch will have to be carried by Cody Demps, a do-it-all senior who has enjoyed a secondary role offensively the past couple of years. A three year starter, Demps really came into his own last season, shooting over 50% on twos, and making frequent trips to the foul line, where he shot 80%. He can also move the ball, and is their best defender. However, we have to see who will join him in the backcourt.
Dreon Bartlett played a secondary role last year, mostly as a catch and shoot guy. He was a 45% three-point shooter (though not on a ton of attempts), so there is certainly something there. Possibly the leading candidate to be the primary ballhandler is Marcus Graves. The 6'0'' guard was compared by Coach Katz to Dylan Garrity when he signed. Another guy is Jiday Ugbaja, who redshirted last season. The 5'10'' guard can be an athletic and dynamic scorer, with the ability to shoot and drive. Incoming freshman Jeff Wu could also be in the mix.
In the frontcourt, they have some guys, but not a lot who are proven. Eric Stuteville has been an important part of the team the last two years, as a guy who can score in a variety of ways in the post. He is not super quick, and has struggled rebounding the ball defensively, but he could be a main option offensively. His brother, Mason Stuteville, came in pretty highly touted, and wound up redshirting. He has the skillset to be more of a stretch four. Two other guys, James Herrick and Justin Strings, will get some time. Herrick is a bruising inside player who should split time with E Stuteville at the five. Strings played in 23 games last year, though he didn't play enough to draw any conclusions. He is a small power forward, the type that so often thrive in the Big Sky.
The Hornets will take a big step back next year, but they'll be a very young team that should have a bright future ahead of them.
10. Idaho
Losses: Sekou Wiggs, Connor Hill, Mike Scott, Bira Seck
It was a disappointing year for the Vandals. They were talented enough to beat anyone in the Big Sky, as they showed during the year. However, they snuck into the Big Sky tournament as a seven seed, falling to EWU in the first round. They lose four of their top five scorers, meaning next could be a bit of a rebuilding year in Moscow.
The best player returning is Arkadiy Mkrtychyan, who was a bit of a forgotten freshman this season. He was superbly efficient scoring the basketball, and rebounding well on both ends of the court. He is not bad at drawing fouls and getting to the line either. He will be an all-conference first-team player at some point in his career - he is that good. He is joined up front by guys like Ty Egbert and Jordan Scott, who both played well, but in limited minutes. Scott in particular could have a bright future.
They will also get transfer Skyler White eligible, after he sat out last season. White played at George Washington, where was active in 17 games but didn't accumulate much in the way of stats. With Paul Mpawe and Nahshon George also in the mix, they will have plenty of bodies up front, it's just a matter of some of them developing next to Ark up front.
In the backcourt, the main holdover is Perrion Callandret, who looked much improved as a sophomore, showing a solid three-point stroke to go along with vicious athleticism. He could be the best dunker in the conference. He didn't flash much in the way of creating for others, so it will be interesting to see if that is a role he has to fill. Victor Sanders is another guy that got a good amount of playing time, and was a good shot beyond the arc. He needs to be better inside the arc, but he could be a player. Another guy to watch is Jake Straughan, who redshirted last year after a high school career as the quintessential three-sport star. Tyler Brimhall could play as well.
All in all, the Vandals will be a young team, without a ton of proven guys. However, history also shows they will be a team that can score points under Don Verlin. We'll see if they can defend well enough to crawl into the middle of the pack/
11. Montana State
Losses: Blake Brumwell, Mike Dison, Eric Norman, Ryan Shannon, Joey Frenchwood, Terrell Brown, Bradley Fisher
I am not sure what to make of these guys heading into next season. I like Brian Fish, and I feel like he will build this into a winning program in time. However, next year looks like another year of growing pains with a young roster.
There will still be some pieces for a fast-paced team that can shoot from outside. Leading the way is Marcus Colbert, who was the sixth man of the year in the conference, but played more minutes than anyone else on the team. He was greatly improved as a distributor, while also displaying a dangerous outside shot. It is big to get him back. Stephan Holm is one guy that will join him in the backourt. Holm was a 33% three-point shooter on a lot of attempts, but the hope is that he will improve that and become a guy that can really stretch defenses. Zach Green will also return, and he got a lot of experience as a freshman.
In the frontcourt, Danny Robison had a nice impact as a junior, scoring efficiently inside the arc and becoming an outside threat. He is a guy where they at least have some certainty that he will be a productive player for them. Quinn Price is a guy with some talent, and should be better as a sophomore.
Beyond those guys, there are a lot of question marks. They have a big recruiting class, and they will need some of those guys to play right away. Fish's recruiting focus a lot of times has been clear to see - guys that can shoot the ball, handle it well, and are comfortable playing at a high tempo. Again, it will take some time for that plan to come to fruition, and there will likely be another year like last season, but things should slowly come more and more into focus.
12. Idaho State
Losses: Chris Hansen, Jeffrey Solarin, Evann Hall, Nnamdi Ezenwa, Ajak Magot
I like Bill Evans, and I think he is a great basketball mind. However, next year could be a long one for the Bengals, a program that has averaged just eight wins per season since he took over three years ago (in fairness, the cupboard was extremely bare when he took over).
Unlike other teams at the bottom of the Big Sky, the Bengals were an experienced team - by some measures the seventh most experienced team in college basketball, as measured by the class of the guys who played the most minutes. They lose arguably their three best guys. The most experienced returner is guard Ben Wilson, who started at PG and played 87% of the team's minutes. He is not a natural PG, but did have a solid 21.1 Assist Rate. He is not a huge offensive threat, but his experience will be nice to have around.
In terms of underclassmen, Geno Luzcando played a good chunk of minutes as a true freshman, though he may not have been quite ready. He struggled taking care of the basketball, and with shot selection... Still, he is a talented guy that will likely be given some opportunities next year. Big man Andre Slavik is a guy that Bengals fans like, though he didn't play enough to get a great read on him. The sophomore was just 10/14 from the field, but did not rebound very well and turned the ball over frequently.
The Bengals are bringing in some JUCO guards to hopefully provide some experience and a quicker injection of talent than a freshman might, and hopefully those guys will be ready to go right away. I am just speculating here, but I imagine that with another poor year, Evans could start to feel some job pressure, if he is not already. If you ever listen to him, you know he is one of the most likeable and quotable coaches in the Big Sky, so I am rooting for some Bengals success next year. As of today, however, they look to be on the bottom rung of the conference for next season.
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Let me state the obvious caveat - everything is conjecture at this point. I would love to hear the dissenting opinions, because next year should be a fun year in the Big Sky, as always. Please let me know where you think I am right or wrong... I don't really have anything to base this off of except my own thoughts and opinions, so I don't know if my views are common or not.
The Big Sky was very deep this season, though there was no dominant team. You could see this in the conference tournament, where even the number eight seed Weber State had a legit shot at the title. There was a lot of balance this year. Next season, there still doesn't seem to be a dominant team (more on that in the previews), but there also doesn't seem to be quite the depth that there was this season, at least at first glance.
To be honest, I had a really difficult time trying to rank teams from 6-11... I almost feel like you could draw them from a hat, and you could make a case that it is a reasonable ranking. To me, there doesn't seem to be a lot of separation between those teams. Each has a lot of flaws and question marks at this juncture, granting that there is a lot of time left to go before the start of next season.
Also, I have updated the recruiting tracker, so hopefully that looks a little more up to date...
1. Weber State
Losses: James Hajek, Chris Golden, Jaylen Johnson-Coston
It was a disappointing year for the Wildcats, as they were the preseason pick to win the league, and they wound up sneaking into the tournament as the eight seed. However, next season should be much better. For one, the losses should be minimal, as James Hajek is the only senior, and then they lose two transfers. However, they weren't super young either - most of their production came from sophomores and juniors - so they will be flush with upperclassmen as well. The biggest name is Joel Bolomboy, who might never be the offensive force we want him to be, but is still a darn good player that can be the best shot blocking/rebounding force in the conference. Jeremy Senglin is still one of the most talented guys in the Big Sky, and Kyndahl Hill and Richaud Gittens are as athletic as anyone. There will be no shortage of upperclassmen talent.
All of this isn't to say that there is a lack of young talent as well. Weber State has been excellent recruiting, and reinforcements should make next year's team very deep. Ryan Richardson will be a sophomore, and he showed flashes of being a major threat stretching the floor. Jeremiah Jefferson redshirted this season, and he will be another athletic presence in the backcourt as a guy who can light it up from outside, or get to the rim. It is really a beneficial thing that they were able to redshirt him, and he should be dynamic. Up front, Zach Braxton redshirted as well, and he is a guy that could have made an impact as a true freshman for a lot of programs. He is a true post that will add depth and talent to a frontcourt that at times lacked size. That is not even including any incoming players who could potentially contribute.
Weber State took a one year step back, but they are primed to be right back in the thick of the title race again next season. With the likely departure of Tyler Harvey to the NBA Draft, it's reasonable to crown them at least as co-favorites, along with Montana and Eastern Washington.
2. Montana
Losses: Jordan Gregory, Mike Weisner, Chris Kemp
The co-champions only lose one starter, but he is a guy that will be tough to replace. Among all of their perimeter players, Gregory was the shot maker, and the guy that got the ball in crunch time. Mario Dunn has the talent to potentially evolve into that role, but his offensive skillset is not there yet.
The best thing Montana has going for them is big man Martin Breunig, a unanimous first team guy who almost beat the Eagles by himself in the Big Sky title game. He is dynamic in all phases, with the ability to hit midrange shots, put the ball on the floor and finish, and be one of the best rebounders in the Big Sky. He's a star. The Robin to his Batman is Dunn, who should win a defensive POY award before his career is out, and made a lot of strides offensively. If he can cut down on turnovers and develop a consistent outside shot that teams have to be wary of, he is a first-team all-conference type of player. He spearheads a Grizzlies defense that was the best in the Big Sky this year.
The role players are there too, as they always are for the Grizzlies. Brandon Gfeller could be the best shooter in the Big Sky next year (he shot 197 threes this year compared to 19 two-point attempts). Fabijan Krslovic was very steady as a freshman, and guys like Riley Bradshaw and Jack Lopez should be solid role players. The key will be replacing that production from Gregory, which will have to be a group effort. If they can do that, and if Dunn develops as expected, the Grizzlies have the pieces in place (including a top notch defensive mindset) to make another run at the Big Sky title.
3. Eastern Washington
Losses: Drew Brandon, Parker Kelly, Garrett Moon, Tyler Harvey
Before the news broke that Tyler Harvey would be entering the draft, I speculated in this now-rewritten section that EWU would be a unanimous selection as the preseason number one team in the Big Sky. Now, they are certainly still in the conversation (and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them number one), but I've dropped them down a couple spots.
The strength of the team will be up front. Everyone knows Venky Jois, who does a bit of everything on both ends for the Eagles. He shot over 60% on twos, rebounds on both ends as well as most guys in the Big Sky, and is one of the best shot blockers in the Big Sky. He has a good handle for a big man. Other than shooting free throws, there isn't much he can't do. You could argue he was even more valuable than Harvey for the Eagles last year.
Joining him up front is Bogdan Bliznyuk, who should be ready to absolutely take off as a sophomore. He is an extremely efficient scorer (he shot 58% on twos and 24/43 from three) who always seems to be under control. He is an excellent rebounder as well. With the ball in his hands a bit more this year, he could average something like 16 and 7. He will be fun to watch. Ognjen Miljkovic will be back up front, and though he was up and down at times, skilled big men who score 10 PPG, can shoot from three, and will bang with the big men down low defensively don't grow on trees. Felix Van Hofe will be a junior, and provides more shooting range for EWU.
The questions facing the Eagles come in the backcourt, after losing their top three guys there. Everyone knows about Harvey, but Drew Brandon did a bit of everything for them, and Parker Kelly was a dangerous shooter and steady player for them. It's going to be very tough to replace all of those guys. Sir Washington will likely start at one of the guard spots, after an impressive freshman year. He didn't play a lot as he missed time due to injury, but he was a high-energy, athletic player (he sparked them in the NCAA Tournament game). He will probably get all of the minutes he can handle.
Among newcomers, Will Ferris will be in the mix after redshirting last year. He projects to be able to play both guard positions, and would add another excellent shooter to the mix. A final candidate is incoming freshman Michael Wearne, who hails from Australia (where else?). Wearne is one of the top PG prospects from Australia, and put up some eye popping numbers over there. It's always difficult to predict freshmen production, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see him starting at PG and excelling right away.
When you put it together, nobody will be able to match the size and talent that the Eagles will have in the frontcourt, with multiple all-conference candidates up there. The key for them will be growth of young guards. If those guys develop (and Hayford has usually been able to get guard production), then the Eagles can win the Big Sky title again, even with some big losses.
4. Northern Arizona
Losses: Quinton Upshur, Aaseem Dixon, Len Springs
There is a fair amount of speculation in putting NAU this high, because they are losing two of their top three scorers (and leading shot blocker, and a four year guy in Gaellen Bewernick who has started most of his career), but don't necessarily have guys currently on the roster to replace them. They lost one backup guard to transfer this year, and another to academic ineligibility (who may be able to return). They are not a super deep team this season, often playing only seven guys, so they are losing over half of their main rotation.
Still, I feel comfortable putting them this high for a couple reasons. One, they even with the losses, they return arguably their two most important players. The first is PG Kris Yanku, who grew into a Big Sky first-team guy as a sophomore, and always seems to be in control of the offense. He is not a great outside shooter, and may never be, but he has the ability to almost get into the lane whenever he wants, draw a ton of fouls (7th in the country in the rate he draws fouls), and find open teammates (his 38.2 Assist Rate ranks 10th in the country. If he is able to score more efficiently (he shot an ugly 35% on twos this season), he can be the Big Sky player of the year. Their defensive anchor is Jordyn Martin, who was the Defensive POY this year. Martin isn't a big shot-blocker, but he's always in the right spot. Offensively, he is an excellent rebounder, and efficient finisher, shooting 58% this year.
Those two are joined by Ako Kaluna, one of the most skilled big men in the Big Sky. He can handle the ball, bang down low, but also hit from the outside, as he shot 43% on threes this year. With guys like those three, and expected improvement of Zachary Reynolds and Tate de Laveaga, the returning talent isn't as bare as it might seem.
NAU will be able to supplement this talent with six freshmen, a class that has been lauded by those who know more than me when it comes to recruits. It's impossible to say which of these guys will contribute, but I feel confident saying that some will. NAU has made a lot of strides in the three years under Jack Murphy, and while next year's team may not be quite as good as last year, they should still be a talented team that could be a Big Sky favorite entering 2016.
5. Southern Utah
Losses: Cal Hanks, Tyler Rawson (to LDS Mission), Austin Waddoups
Not only were they a young team last year, but Nick Robinson gave everyone a ton of playing time. For a long time, their bench played more minutes than anyone else in the country... They finished the year playing 44.8% of the team's minutes, fourth most in the nation. The loss of Cal Hanks will not hurt, but Tyler Rawson gave them a lot of good minutes this year. They are bringing in three frontcourt guys, so they should be able to put enough bodies in there and see what sticks in the frontcourt.
They have a ton of potential guards, so you can see why they didn't go for any in recruiting. AJ Hess can play the two or three, and is probably their best offensive guy with his shooting and size. He just keeps getting better, and will be a senior. James McGee was spectacular as a freshman with his shooting range - he made over 50% of his threes, which is remarkable. Nobody is talking about him, but he was quietly outstanding.
Trey Kennedy and Juwan Major are two guys who have the physical skills to be really good, but they haven't separated themselves through two seasons. Kennedy shot just 40% on twos this year, and Major had a 28.7 TO Rate. They need one of these guys to take a leap. John Marshall and Race Parsons are two other guys who will be juniors and while they have some flaws, they can be rotation pieces.
The reason I don't think they are a top tier yet is because nobody really stands out as a star to me. When you look at teams above them, there are guys that are potentially all-conference players there (Harvey, Jois, Yanku, Breunig, Senglin, Bolomboy, etc), but when I look at this SUU roster, I'm not sure who that guy would be. You can win a conference title with a lot of good players, but it helps to have a great player or two thrown in. We'll see if one develops for the Thunderbirds over the next couple of seasons.
6. Northern Colorado
Losses: Tevin Svihovec, Tim Hukisson, Dominique Lee, Corey Spence
The past couple of seasons had to be frustrating for the UNC staff, as the team was good enough offensively to make serious waves, but never got it together defensively. For the second straight year, they lose some key pieces, including four of their top six in minutes played. Of course, the cupboard still isn't bare.
Their backcourt will still be very solid, as Cam Michael and Jordan Wilson enter their junior seasons. Michael was one of the best newcomers in the conference this season, a great shooter with a quick release and ability to create his own shot. He shot 39% from downtown this season, and will slide over to become more of a focal point in the offense. Wilson is probably the fastest player in the Big Sky, and he uses that quickness to get in the lane, and pressure opponents defensively all over the court. He may never be a true distributor, but he takes great care of the ball, and can hit from the outside. Anthony Johnson will also be in for an expanded role. He was very efficient scoring the ball, but it was in very limited minutes.
The frontcourt has some solid players, though nobody that really stands out as a star. Cody McDavis and Jeremy Verhagen are both big bodies that can score efficiently, but neither has stood out as an above average rebounder or rim protector. Spencer Mathis played sparingly as a freshman, and he could be a combo 3/4 guy depending on his development.
Of the newcomers that they have signed up so far, Jordan Davis looks like he could be a really good player. He originally committed to EWU, and is excellent ballhandling and attacking the rim. When Wilson entered the program as a freshman two years ago, he split time with Corey Spence, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar arrangement, with Davis now splitting time with Jordan Wilson. They also will get transfer Dallas Anglin in from Southern Miss, who I assume will be eligible in the second semester, and he can fill some backcourt minutes as well.
All of this is to say that UNC will likely be able to score the ball next year, as they always do under BJ Hill. But, we'll have to see if they can build a championship contending defense out of the group. I'm not sure the pieces are there for that.
7. Portland State
Losses: Gary Winston, DaShaun Wiggins, Tim Douglas, Tiegbe Bamba, Brandon Cataldo
The six through eleven logjam is typified by Portland State. They are losing a lot of talented guys, and there aren't necessarily many obviously replacements on the roster. As a change from some previous years, they look to be strongest in the frontcourt, where Collin Spickerman and Braxton Tucker both return. Spickerman was an interesting player... He was not a great offensive force, but he was strong on the glass (especially offensively), and he was 12th in the country in his block rate. Tucker is a little more of an offensive presence, as he shot over 50%, and was really missed when he was hurt.
The backcourt will be more interesting, because there are a lot of unknowns. Zach Gengler played the most among returning guys, and he is a guy that shoots the ball well. He was also pretty good as a defensive rebounder for a guard. They will need him to play a bigger offensive role. Iziahiah Sweeney got some time as a freshman, and while he is raw, flashed some skills. He needs to improve his outside shots, and he wasn't much of a distributor, but they like him. Sebastian Suarez could also get some time as a senior... He was billed as a great shooter but hasn't seen a lot of playing time.
The Vikings will also get transfer guard Calaen Robinson eligible. He transferred from Arizona State, and sat out last season. While Robinson didn't do much for ASU, he was the 19th best PG recruit coming out of high school. You don't need to look any further than Montana this year to see the impact a major program transfer can have. Bryce White will also be back. He only played 13 games last year because of injury, but he averaged 9.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game when he was playing. A core of Robinson-White-Spickerman-Tucker is pretty solid.
Part of the reason I have them as high as seven is because Tyler Geving is always very active on the juco market. While I worry about that strategy and how it works for overall team building, it should help to ensure they don't sink too low. We will see what kinds of players he is able to get from the junior college ranks.
8. North Dakota
Losses: Jaron Nash, Lenny Antwi, Chad Calcaterra, Ryan Salmonsen, Josiah Coleman, Kraig Shields
The sheer number of players leaving the program (either through graduation or transfer) is a bit exhausting, but it's not as bad as it looks. The biggest name is Jaron Nash, and though he was a very talented guy who could do a lot of things, at times he may have hurt the offense more than helped it. The other notable loss is Lenny Antwi, who followed up three OK years with a very solid senior season that saw him become a more consistent outside threat.
However, they still have some guys, especially in the backourt. Quinton Hooker took the big step forward that many people thought he would as a sophomore, becoming a steady PG with improved scoring punch. He will be an all-conference candidate type of player next year, and is easily their most important guy. He is joined in the backcourt by two transfers from last year who will be seniors - Estan Tyler and Terrell de Rouen. Tyler has the ability to be a very good scorer with a dangerous outside shot. De Rouen is the better defender of the two, but he shots a miserable 30% on over 100 threes last year - which quickly makes you a net negative offensively. Dustin Hobaugh is another guy that will get minutes, and can hit shots from anywhere on the court.
Up front is where there will be more question marks. The anchor will likely be Carson Shanks, who became eligible in the second semester last year, and flashed some skills. He was solid rebounding the ball, and showed some shot blocking chops. They are expecting growth from him. Bryce Cashman got some minutes as a freshman, and had an interesting time. He was 22/36 from the floor (great), but 8/24 from the free throw line (yeesh).
In the recruits that they have signed so far, it seems like there was an emphasis on wings, and they got some talented guys. I expect they will sign a JUCO big man or two to provide some depth and talent in the frontcourt, with immediate playing time being a lure for them.
After reaching the Big Sky title game two years, they predictably took a step back as guys graduated. However, they have more talent than you might think, and should compete in the middle of the Big Sky next season.
9. Sacramento State
Losses: Dylan Garrity, Mikh McKinney, Zach Mills, Alex Tiffin
This may be a little low after the best year in school history, but Garrity and McKinney did so much for the program, and they will be extremely difficult to replace. Also gone is Zach Mills, who was an underrated contributor in the frontcourt, and had the ability to play multiple positions.
The torch will have to be carried by Cody Demps, a do-it-all senior who has enjoyed a secondary role offensively the past couple of years. A three year starter, Demps really came into his own last season, shooting over 50% on twos, and making frequent trips to the foul line, where he shot 80%. He can also move the ball, and is their best defender. However, we have to see who will join him in the backcourt.
Dreon Bartlett played a secondary role last year, mostly as a catch and shoot guy. He was a 45% three-point shooter (though not on a ton of attempts), so there is certainly something there. Possibly the leading candidate to be the primary ballhandler is Marcus Graves. The 6'0'' guard was compared by Coach Katz to Dylan Garrity when he signed. Another guy is Jiday Ugbaja, who redshirted last season. The 5'10'' guard can be an athletic and dynamic scorer, with the ability to shoot and drive. Incoming freshman Jeff Wu could also be in the mix.
In the frontcourt, they have some guys, but not a lot who are proven. Eric Stuteville has been an important part of the team the last two years, as a guy who can score in a variety of ways in the post. He is not super quick, and has struggled rebounding the ball defensively, but he could be a main option offensively. His brother, Mason Stuteville, came in pretty highly touted, and wound up redshirting. He has the skillset to be more of a stretch four. Two other guys, James Herrick and Justin Strings, will get some time. Herrick is a bruising inside player who should split time with E Stuteville at the five. Strings played in 23 games last year, though he didn't play enough to draw any conclusions. He is a small power forward, the type that so often thrive in the Big Sky.
The Hornets will take a big step back next year, but they'll be a very young team that should have a bright future ahead of them.
10. Idaho
Losses: Sekou Wiggs, Connor Hill, Mike Scott, Bira Seck
It was a disappointing year for the Vandals. They were talented enough to beat anyone in the Big Sky, as they showed during the year. However, they snuck into the Big Sky tournament as a seven seed, falling to EWU in the first round. They lose four of their top five scorers, meaning next could be a bit of a rebuilding year in Moscow.
The best player returning is Arkadiy Mkrtychyan, who was a bit of a forgotten freshman this season. He was superbly efficient scoring the basketball, and rebounding well on both ends of the court. He is not bad at drawing fouls and getting to the line either. He will be an all-conference first-team player at some point in his career - he is that good. He is joined up front by guys like Ty Egbert and Jordan Scott, who both played well, but in limited minutes. Scott in particular could have a bright future.
They will also get transfer Skyler White eligible, after he sat out last season. White played at George Washington, where was active in 17 games but didn't accumulate much in the way of stats. With Paul Mpawe and Nahshon George also in the mix, they will have plenty of bodies up front, it's just a matter of some of them developing next to Ark up front.
In the backcourt, the main holdover is Perrion Callandret, who looked much improved as a sophomore, showing a solid three-point stroke to go along with vicious athleticism. He could be the best dunker in the conference. He didn't flash much in the way of creating for others, so it will be interesting to see if that is a role he has to fill. Victor Sanders is another guy that got a good amount of playing time, and was a good shot beyond the arc. He needs to be better inside the arc, but he could be a player. Another guy to watch is Jake Straughan, who redshirted last year after a high school career as the quintessential three-sport star. Tyler Brimhall could play as well.
All in all, the Vandals will be a young team, without a ton of proven guys. However, history also shows they will be a team that can score points under Don Verlin. We'll see if they can defend well enough to crawl into the middle of the pack/
11. Montana State
Losses: Blake Brumwell, Mike Dison, Eric Norman, Ryan Shannon, Joey Frenchwood, Terrell Brown, Bradley Fisher
I am not sure what to make of these guys heading into next season. I like Brian Fish, and I feel like he will build this into a winning program in time. However, next year looks like another year of growing pains with a young roster.
There will still be some pieces for a fast-paced team that can shoot from outside. Leading the way is Marcus Colbert, who was the sixth man of the year in the conference, but played more minutes than anyone else on the team. He was greatly improved as a distributor, while also displaying a dangerous outside shot. It is big to get him back. Stephan Holm is one guy that will join him in the backourt. Holm was a 33% three-point shooter on a lot of attempts, but the hope is that he will improve that and become a guy that can really stretch defenses. Zach Green will also return, and he got a lot of experience as a freshman.
In the frontcourt, Danny Robison had a nice impact as a junior, scoring efficiently inside the arc and becoming an outside threat. He is a guy where they at least have some certainty that he will be a productive player for them. Quinn Price is a guy with some talent, and should be better as a sophomore.
Beyond those guys, there are a lot of question marks. They have a big recruiting class, and they will need some of those guys to play right away. Fish's recruiting focus a lot of times has been clear to see - guys that can shoot the ball, handle it well, and are comfortable playing at a high tempo. Again, it will take some time for that plan to come to fruition, and there will likely be another year like last season, but things should slowly come more and more into focus.
12. Idaho State
Losses: Chris Hansen, Jeffrey Solarin, Evann Hall, Nnamdi Ezenwa, Ajak Magot
I like Bill Evans, and I think he is a great basketball mind. However, next year could be a long one for the Bengals, a program that has averaged just eight wins per season since he took over three years ago (in fairness, the cupboard was extremely bare when he took over).
Unlike other teams at the bottom of the Big Sky, the Bengals were an experienced team - by some measures the seventh most experienced team in college basketball, as measured by the class of the guys who played the most minutes. They lose arguably their three best guys. The most experienced returner is guard Ben Wilson, who started at PG and played 87% of the team's minutes. He is not a natural PG, but did have a solid 21.1 Assist Rate. He is not a huge offensive threat, but his experience will be nice to have around.
In terms of underclassmen, Geno Luzcando played a good chunk of minutes as a true freshman, though he may not have been quite ready. He struggled taking care of the basketball, and with shot selection... Still, he is a talented guy that will likely be given some opportunities next year. Big man Andre Slavik is a guy that Bengals fans like, though he didn't play enough to get a great read on him. The sophomore was just 10/14 from the field, but did not rebound very well and turned the ball over frequently.
The Bengals are bringing in some JUCO guards to hopefully provide some experience and a quicker injection of talent than a freshman might, and hopefully those guys will be ready to go right away. I am just speculating here, but I imagine that with another poor year, Evans could start to feel some job pressure, if he is not already. If you ever listen to him, you know he is one of the most likeable and quotable coaches in the Big Sky, so I am rooting for some Bengals success next year. As of today, however, they look to be on the bottom rung of the conference for next season.
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
Eastern Washington and Sacramento State Advance in Big Sky Tournament
Through two games in the Big Sky Tournament, the favorites have advanced on the backs of their stars.
The first game of the day was an entertaining, back and forth affair between Eastern Washington and Idaho. Points came in flurries, with the Eagles eventually prevailing 91-83 to move on.
They were led by Tyler Harvey, who was simply sensational, tying a Big Sky tournament record with 42 points. He was 13/20 from the field, and hit eight threes in the victory. It wasn't a case of Idaho losing track of him either... Harvey hit stepback jumpers with guys in his face. He was essentially unguardable at times, and it was a lot of fun to watch. Mikh McKinney was a rightful MVP winner, but Harvey showed that at his best, he was the toughest guy to guard.
At times, it looked like EWU wasn't going to get enough from everyone else to get the win (other than Harvey, the Eagles were 5/20 from downtown), but they got just enough plays down the stretch. Venky Jois got a lot of defensive attention, but he eventually finished with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Ognjen Miljkovic made enough shots to be dangerous, and finished with 13. Bogdan Bliznyuk made some plays down the stretch. They got just enough from everyone else.
Idaho was almost not going to be denied, as they put on an offensive clinic of their own. The star was Connor Hill, who finished with 23 points and looked like a senior doing everything he could to prolong his career. At times, it looked like his range was unlimited. Perrion Callandret played perhaps the best game of his career, and gives them hope that they will have a great backcourt next year (along with Sekou Wiggs). Ark Mkrtchyan did his thing, as always. In the end, they just couldn't get the stops they needed. They were a fun team to watch, with a lot of offensive talent and the ability to raise their game against good opponents, but they just never found that elite level defensively.
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The Eagles opponent in the semifinals will be Sacramento State, who held off a pesky Portland State team to get the 70-60 win.
Portland State took care of the ball, and they were patient against the Sacramento State zone, but they just couldn't find enough good shots, as they were just 22/61 from the field. The Hornets were very disciplined in the zone, always staying in position and never overpursuing.
On the other end, the Hornets were powered by their starts. Dylan Garrity had 22 points and was 8/8 inside the arc, Mikh McKinney had 24 points, and Cody Demps finished with 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. The trio combined for 55 of the Hornets 70 points, showing why they are arguably the best trio in the Big Sky.
For the Vikings, Gary Winston was excellent, as the senior finished with 26 points, but the Vikings had no balance in this game. Tiegbe Bamba and DaShaun Wiggins both had their moments, but nobody else was able to get anything done against the Hornets zone. In the end, Sac State won this game with their defense, which is not a phrase we would expect to write about them this year.
The Eagles won an entertaining affair, while the Hornets slowly strangled the Vikings into submission. In the end, both styles get you into the Big Sky semifinals. The Eagles win will get a few more headlines because it was more visually appealing, but the Hornets arguably looked better in their victory.
We'll get a matchup that many expected to see in the title game for much of the season. It will be an even matchup, as both teams split in the regular season. It will come down to the stars - Harvey and Jois on one side, McKinney and Garrity on the other. We are all in for a real treat!
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
The first game of the day was an entertaining, back and forth affair between Eastern Washington and Idaho. Points came in flurries, with the Eagles eventually prevailing 91-83 to move on.
They were led by Tyler Harvey, who was simply sensational, tying a Big Sky tournament record with 42 points. He was 13/20 from the field, and hit eight threes in the victory. It wasn't a case of Idaho losing track of him either... Harvey hit stepback jumpers with guys in his face. He was essentially unguardable at times, and it was a lot of fun to watch. Mikh McKinney was a rightful MVP winner, but Harvey showed that at his best, he was the toughest guy to guard.
At times, it looked like EWU wasn't going to get enough from everyone else to get the win (other than Harvey, the Eagles were 5/20 from downtown), but they got just enough plays down the stretch. Venky Jois got a lot of defensive attention, but he eventually finished with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Ognjen Miljkovic made enough shots to be dangerous, and finished with 13. Bogdan Bliznyuk made some plays down the stretch. They got just enough from everyone else.
Idaho was almost not going to be denied, as they put on an offensive clinic of their own. The star was Connor Hill, who finished with 23 points and looked like a senior doing everything he could to prolong his career. At times, it looked like his range was unlimited. Perrion Callandret played perhaps the best game of his career, and gives them hope that they will have a great backcourt next year (along with Sekou Wiggs). Ark Mkrtchyan did his thing, as always. In the end, they just couldn't get the stops they needed. They were a fun team to watch, with a lot of offensive talent and the ability to raise their game against good opponents, but they just never found that elite level defensively.
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The Eagles opponent in the semifinals will be Sacramento State, who held off a pesky Portland State team to get the 70-60 win.
Portland State took care of the ball, and they were patient against the Sacramento State zone, but they just couldn't find enough good shots, as they were just 22/61 from the field. The Hornets were very disciplined in the zone, always staying in position and never overpursuing.
On the other end, the Hornets were powered by their starts. Dylan Garrity had 22 points and was 8/8 inside the arc, Mikh McKinney had 24 points, and Cody Demps finished with 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. The trio combined for 55 of the Hornets 70 points, showing why they are arguably the best trio in the Big Sky.
For the Vikings, Gary Winston was excellent, as the senior finished with 26 points, but the Vikings had no balance in this game. Tiegbe Bamba and DaShaun Wiggins both had their moments, but nobody else was able to get anything done against the Hornets zone. In the end, Sac State won this game with their defense, which is not a phrase we would expect to write about them this year.
The Eagles won an entertaining affair, while the Hornets slowly strangled the Vikings into submission. In the end, both styles get you into the Big Sky semifinals. The Eagles win will get a few more headlines because it was more visually appealing, but the Hornets arguably looked better in their victory.
We'll get a matchup that many expected to see in the title game for much of the season. It will be an even matchup, as both teams split in the regular season. It will come down to the stars - Harvey and Jois on one side, McKinney and Garrity on the other. We are all in for a real treat!
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Big Sky Tournament Predictions
After looking at all of the teams yesterday, and their respective chances to win the Big Sky tournmament, let's get to something more concrete - previews of the games themselves, along with some predictions.
I'll go into more detail on the quartefinal games, and then give me predictions for the subsequent rounds in less detail (since there's no need to go deep in depth for matchups that may or may not happen). Without further ado...
Quarterfinals
#1 Montana vs #8 Weber State
Previous Meeting(s): Weber won 68-60 in Ogden, Montana won 74-63 in Missoula
Thoughts: Jeremy Senglin missed the second meeting, so Weber State's best chance will be to follow what happened in the first meeting. In that game, Martin Breunig was dominant (31 points on 14/18 shooting), but the Wildcats did a good job containing everyone else. The rest of the team shot 10/37 for 29 points, including a 4/18 effort from Jordan Gregory. Breunig has abused Weber in both games, so they may not have a easy time stopping him. Their best bet may be to just single him up with Joel Bolomboy, and stick to the rest of Montana's shooters as close as they can. A guy like Brandon Gfeller can rack up some points in a hurry if he gets good looks, and that could be the type of thing Weber State can't come back from.
The bigger factor, I think, will be the other end of the court, where Weber State doesn't figure to have a ton of success against the Montana defense. Nobody has been better at forcing turnovers in the Big Sky, but WSU has been the second most generous team in giving them up. Getting Senglin back could help that, but he's also had a tendency to turn it over. As I mentioned yesterday, the easiest way to beat Montana could be to get Breunig into foul trouble, and Bolomboy has had some success drawing fouls this year (he takes over 5.5 FTs per game). However, I just don't see the Wildcats getting enough open looks against the Griz, especially since this game is in Missoula.
Montana 71, Weber State 60
#4 Northern Arizona vs #5 Northern Colorado
Previous Meeting(s): NAU won 65-60 in Flagstaff, UNC won 76-74 in Greeley
Thoughts: I watched these two teams in Greeley a couple weeks ago and it was a great game, so it will be fun to watch again. When UNC has the ball, it will come down to who is able to play more to their strengths. NAU doesn't give you good looks in the paint, and they typically rebound the ball well. On the other hand, UNC excels in the midrange and using their quickness to get good shots at the rim, and they can be terrors on the offensive glass. In Greeley, they snagged 14 offensive rebounds, which Jack Murphy believed to be the difference in the game. In the first meeting, they only had six. That is a key thing to watch.
On the other end, The Bears have had trouble containing Kris Yanku, and that will likely continue. UNC is at its best with either Jordan Wilson or Cody Spence out there (or even both, at times), but both guys struggle with the height of Yanku. On the other hand, someone like Tevin Svihovec doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of him. If the Bears collapse on him in the paint, Yanku has the vision and passing skills to take advantage, with shooters on the outside, and guys capable of finishing strong at the rim. It will be a pick your poison type of scenario for UNC, and I expect Yanku to put up big numbers either way.
This should be a great game, as both teams are capable of going on runs and winning this game. However, I trust NAU just a little bit more.
Northern Arizona 73, Northern Colorado 69
#2 Eastern Washington vs #7 Idaho
Previous Meetings(s): EWU won 89-86 in Moscow, and 98-95 in Cheney
Thoughts: As you can tell from the previous game scores, we should be in for a fun, fast paced game. Where teams like Northern Colorado or Sacramento State are great offensively but don't try to push the pace, both the Eagles and Vandals are excellent scoring the ball AND like to push it as fast as they can. Plus, they can have their defensive struggles at times as well (though one more than the other).
The Vandals keeping both meetings close points to the fact that they can win this game, but the Eagles are clearly the favorite as they have more consistently played at a high level. EWU is primarily seen a three-point bombing team, but they have been better this year when they've gotten the ball inside, with guys like Venky Jois and Bogdan Bliznyuk being elite scorers down low. Idaho is also not intimidating down low either, as while guys like Bira Seck and Ark Mkrtychyan are good players, they aren't rim protectors. Look for EWU to get the ball inside as much as they can.
When Idaho has the ball, they need to be hitting outside shots, especially against an Eagles front line that has the best shot blockers in the conference. Fortunately for them, they are certainly capable of doing that, as they shot 40.9% from downtown during Big Sky play, third in the conference. The Vandals aren't going to force many turnovers, but they should look for easy options off of EWU misses, as easy baskets will be important. However, I'm not sure they'll get enough stops to be able to keep up.
Eastern Washington 88, Idaho 83
#3 Sacramento State vs #6 Portland State
Previous Meeting(s): Sac State won 64-60 in Sacramento, and 73-60 in Portland
Thoughts: The availability of Braxton Tucker will be important here, as he scored 18 in the first meeting, but missed the second game. A front line with Tucker and Tiegbe Bamba could be a huge weapon for the Vikings. Collin Spickerman can do some nice things for the Vikings (namely, block shots and crash the offensive glass), but the other two guys are the front line scorers. Tucker has missed the last three games with a knee contusion, and should probably be considered questionable. Another key for them is to take care of the basketball. PSU has been good at protecting the ball, but have struggled against Sac State, where they have turned it over 17 times in both meetings. There are scoring opportunities to be had against the Hornets, but they are also good at forcing TOs, so that will be a key.
When Sac State has the ball, they are an interesting team in that they have the best three-point shooting team in the conference, but they don't look to take a ton of threes. Everything starts with Mikh McKinney, who does it all for the Hornets. McKinney will get his, but they can't let him get great looks for everyone else. The Vikings aren't going to force a lot of turnovers, so it comes down to closing in on shooters such as Dylan Garrity, and cutting off the penetration of McKinney and Cody Demps. All three guys are capable of scoring 20.
In the end, if I was a betting man, I think the most likely scenario is that Sac State wins a close game. However, I think at least one of the lower seeds win (with how even this league has been all year), and I think this is the most likely game. If PSU can take care of the ball (again, has been an issue against the Hornets), they can score enough to win this game. It should be fun.
Portland State 69, Sacramento State 68
Semifinals
#1 Montana vs #4 Northern Arizona
This would be a slugfest of a semifinal, featuring the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. During their only meeting in late January, NAU scored 0.89 PPP, while Montana mustered 1.00 PPP thanks to 31 points from Jordan Gregory. NAU has the horses down low (including Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin) to slow down Martin Breunig, but Montana has Mario Dunn to help contain Kris Yanku. Once again, I like the home court to triumph, and I'd take Montana.
#2 Eastern Washington vs #6 Portland State
These teams split during the regular season, so it's a closer game than the seeds might show. However, Venky Jois missed the second meeting (when PSU won), and we are starting to realize he may be the Eagles most important player with his offensive scoring and shot blocking ability. That would make the difference in the third meeting, and I like Eastern Washington in this theoretical matchup.
Championship
#1 Montana vs #2 Eastern Washington
In terms of entertainment factor, this is probably our dream finals matchup. The two teams split their meetings, winning on each other's home courts. As mentioned, Montana is the favorite with their home-court advantage, but EWU is a team that can combat the strengths of the Grizzlies. Venky Jois is down low, and he bothered Breunig in their first matchup (in fairness, Breunig was a force in the rematch). The other thing is that, as we've mentioned, Montana excels at forcing turnovers, but EWU is predicated on taking care of the ball... Their 19 turnovers in the two meetings combined is not bad. So, they can score on the Grizzlies.
However, I just can't shake the feeling that Montana is the best team in the Big Sky right now. Jordan Gregory is the go to guy late in games, and it's nice to have that pecking order. We've talked about Breunig. Mario Dunn could be a future defensive POY. Guys like Brandon Gfeller, Fabijan Krslovic, and Mike Weisner all fill their roles. Everything is coming up Montana for me, and that's why I think they will be the Big Sky champions.
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I'll go into more detail on the quartefinal games, and then give me predictions for the subsequent rounds in less detail (since there's no need to go deep in depth for matchups that may or may not happen). Without further ado...
Quarterfinals
#1 Montana vs #8 Weber State
Previous Meeting(s): Weber won 68-60 in Ogden, Montana won 74-63 in Missoula
Thoughts: Jeremy Senglin missed the second meeting, so Weber State's best chance will be to follow what happened in the first meeting. In that game, Martin Breunig was dominant (31 points on 14/18 shooting), but the Wildcats did a good job containing everyone else. The rest of the team shot 10/37 for 29 points, including a 4/18 effort from Jordan Gregory. Breunig has abused Weber in both games, so they may not have a easy time stopping him. Their best bet may be to just single him up with Joel Bolomboy, and stick to the rest of Montana's shooters as close as they can. A guy like Brandon Gfeller can rack up some points in a hurry if he gets good looks, and that could be the type of thing Weber State can't come back from.
The bigger factor, I think, will be the other end of the court, where Weber State doesn't figure to have a ton of success against the Montana defense. Nobody has been better at forcing turnovers in the Big Sky, but WSU has been the second most generous team in giving them up. Getting Senglin back could help that, but he's also had a tendency to turn it over. As I mentioned yesterday, the easiest way to beat Montana could be to get Breunig into foul trouble, and Bolomboy has had some success drawing fouls this year (he takes over 5.5 FTs per game). However, I just don't see the Wildcats getting enough open looks against the Griz, especially since this game is in Missoula.
Montana 71, Weber State 60
#4 Northern Arizona vs #5 Northern Colorado
Previous Meeting(s): NAU won 65-60 in Flagstaff, UNC won 76-74 in Greeley
Thoughts: I watched these two teams in Greeley a couple weeks ago and it was a great game, so it will be fun to watch again. When UNC has the ball, it will come down to who is able to play more to their strengths. NAU doesn't give you good looks in the paint, and they typically rebound the ball well. On the other hand, UNC excels in the midrange and using their quickness to get good shots at the rim, and they can be terrors on the offensive glass. In Greeley, they snagged 14 offensive rebounds, which Jack Murphy believed to be the difference in the game. In the first meeting, they only had six. That is a key thing to watch.
On the other end, The Bears have had trouble containing Kris Yanku, and that will likely continue. UNC is at its best with either Jordan Wilson or Cody Spence out there (or even both, at times), but both guys struggle with the height of Yanku. On the other hand, someone like Tevin Svihovec doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of him. If the Bears collapse on him in the paint, Yanku has the vision and passing skills to take advantage, with shooters on the outside, and guys capable of finishing strong at the rim. It will be a pick your poison type of scenario for UNC, and I expect Yanku to put up big numbers either way.
This should be a great game, as both teams are capable of going on runs and winning this game. However, I trust NAU just a little bit more.
Northern Arizona 73, Northern Colorado 69
#2 Eastern Washington vs #7 Idaho
Previous Meetings(s): EWU won 89-86 in Moscow, and 98-95 in Cheney
Thoughts: As you can tell from the previous game scores, we should be in for a fun, fast paced game. Where teams like Northern Colorado or Sacramento State are great offensively but don't try to push the pace, both the Eagles and Vandals are excellent scoring the ball AND like to push it as fast as they can. Plus, they can have their defensive struggles at times as well (though one more than the other).
The Vandals keeping both meetings close points to the fact that they can win this game, but the Eagles are clearly the favorite as they have more consistently played at a high level. EWU is primarily seen a three-point bombing team, but they have been better this year when they've gotten the ball inside, with guys like Venky Jois and Bogdan Bliznyuk being elite scorers down low. Idaho is also not intimidating down low either, as while guys like Bira Seck and Ark Mkrtychyan are good players, they aren't rim protectors. Look for EWU to get the ball inside as much as they can.
When Idaho has the ball, they need to be hitting outside shots, especially against an Eagles front line that has the best shot blockers in the conference. Fortunately for them, they are certainly capable of doing that, as they shot 40.9% from downtown during Big Sky play, third in the conference. The Vandals aren't going to force many turnovers, but they should look for easy options off of EWU misses, as easy baskets will be important. However, I'm not sure they'll get enough stops to be able to keep up.
Eastern Washington 88, Idaho 83
#3 Sacramento State vs #6 Portland State
Previous Meeting(s): Sac State won 64-60 in Sacramento, and 73-60 in Portland
Thoughts: The availability of Braxton Tucker will be important here, as he scored 18 in the first meeting, but missed the second game. A front line with Tucker and Tiegbe Bamba could be a huge weapon for the Vikings. Collin Spickerman can do some nice things for the Vikings (namely, block shots and crash the offensive glass), but the other two guys are the front line scorers. Tucker has missed the last three games with a knee contusion, and should probably be considered questionable. Another key for them is to take care of the basketball. PSU has been good at protecting the ball, but have struggled against Sac State, where they have turned it over 17 times in both meetings. There are scoring opportunities to be had against the Hornets, but they are also good at forcing TOs, so that will be a key.
When Sac State has the ball, they are an interesting team in that they have the best three-point shooting team in the conference, but they don't look to take a ton of threes. Everything starts with Mikh McKinney, who does it all for the Hornets. McKinney will get his, but they can't let him get great looks for everyone else. The Vikings aren't going to force a lot of turnovers, so it comes down to closing in on shooters such as Dylan Garrity, and cutting off the penetration of McKinney and Cody Demps. All three guys are capable of scoring 20.
In the end, if I was a betting man, I think the most likely scenario is that Sac State wins a close game. However, I think at least one of the lower seeds win (with how even this league has been all year), and I think this is the most likely game. If PSU can take care of the ball (again, has been an issue against the Hornets), they can score enough to win this game. It should be fun.
Portland State 69, Sacramento State 68
Semifinals
#1 Montana vs #4 Northern Arizona
This would be a slugfest of a semifinal, featuring the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. During their only meeting in late January, NAU scored 0.89 PPP, while Montana mustered 1.00 PPP thanks to 31 points from Jordan Gregory. NAU has the horses down low (including Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin) to slow down Martin Breunig, but Montana has Mario Dunn to help contain Kris Yanku. Once again, I like the home court to triumph, and I'd take Montana.
#2 Eastern Washington vs #6 Portland State
These teams split during the regular season, so it's a closer game than the seeds might show. However, Venky Jois missed the second meeting (when PSU won), and we are starting to realize he may be the Eagles most important player with his offensive scoring and shot blocking ability. That would make the difference in the third meeting, and I like Eastern Washington in this theoretical matchup.
Championship
#1 Montana vs #2 Eastern Washington
In terms of entertainment factor, this is probably our dream finals matchup. The two teams split their meetings, winning on each other's home courts. As mentioned, Montana is the favorite with their home-court advantage, but EWU is a team that can combat the strengths of the Grizzlies. Venky Jois is down low, and he bothered Breunig in their first matchup (in fairness, Breunig was a force in the rematch). The other thing is that, as we've mentioned, Montana excels at forcing turnovers, but EWU is predicated on taking care of the ball... Their 19 turnovers in the two meetings combined is not bad. So, they can score on the Grizzlies.
However, I just can't shake the feeling that Montana is the best team in the Big Sky right now. Jordan Gregory is the go to guy late in games, and it's nice to have that pecking order. We've talked about Breunig. Mario Dunn could be a future defensive POY. Guys like Brandon Gfeller, Fabijan Krslovic, and Mike Weisner all fill their roles. Everything is coming up Montana for me, and that's why I think they will be the Big Sky champions.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Big Sky Tournament Teams - Quick Preview
Before we get to the previews of the games themselves, let's take a quick rundown of each of the teams, and why they could either win the whole tournament, or lose in the first round. It's a wide open race this year, which should make it fun!
#1 Montana
Why they can win it: For one, they have home court advantage. The Grizzlies were 8-1 at home during Big Sky play, losing just to EWU on February 5th. The Grizzlies are also playing the best basketball of anyuone in the Big Sky the past few weeks... after that loss to EWU on 2/5, they went 7-1, with the only loss coming in double OT at Idaho (a game they had a 97.2% chance to win with 3:24 left).
They are also the best defensive team in the Big Sky, at 0.998 PPP during conference play. Their 0.12 PPP margin in Big Sky play is easily the best in the conference. Tying it all together, the Griz have a luxury in Martin Breunig that is rare in the Big Sky - a big man with a solid offensive skill set. He was a unanimous first-teamer and you could easily make the case for him as Big Sky POY.
Let me put it this way... If Sac State had finished with a win and hosted, Montana still might have been the favorite to win the conference. As it is, they are clearly the favorite going into things. In early February, I said Montana was a definite contender (unintentionally angering Sac State fans in the process), but they came on stronger than I ever expected.
Why they can lose in round 1: In two of their four Big Sky losses, they had big leads late, and lost it at the end. Such that that is a trend, they could struggle to hold onto leads.With it happening in just two games, it would be far too strong to say they have a tendency to blow late leads, but it's out there. The biggest concern for them, I think, is that Martin Breunig can get into foul trouble. In both of the aforementioned games, he fouled out. While Jordan Gregory is very good, and they have role players that can do some nice things, everything is harder when Breunig is not out there. Losing him to foul trouble early in a game could be the clearest path to a loss for them.
#2 Eastern Washington
Why they can win it: The Eagles pose the best chance of beating Montana, as they did it once and almost did it again. The Grizzlies have been great at forcing turnovers, but EWU can take care of the ball, and Venky Jois can match up with Breunig down low. That would be a heck of a title game!
The Eagles have shown they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Sky, as they had some big road wins earlier in the year, and have looked downright unstoppable offensively at times. We all know about Tyler Harvey and Venky Jois, but Bogdan Bliznyk is a legit weapon, Drew Brandon does a bit of everything, and Parker Kelly can shoot. Even Felix Van Hofe has hit some big shots. They are tough to defend because they almost always have five guys out there that can score.
Why they can lose in round 1: A lot of this has been due to injuries at times, but they haven't quite seemed to be playing to their peak over the second half of conference play. Save for a date with MSU on 2/26, all of their other last eight games were either within four points or went to OT. That shows some close losses, but an elite team should be able to blow out a couple of those teams. As always, the key for them is defense. They finished fifth at 1.08 PPP allowed in conference play, but teams shot 42% from downtown against them. If their own shots aren't falling, they need to be able to rely on the D to pick up the slack for a while before the offense gets rolling again. It remains to be seen if they can do that.
#3 Sacramento State
Why they can win it: Until the last week, they looked like they would be the hosts of the tournament, so obviously they have the talent to be near the top. They have been great in close games, and while it's debatable if that is a repeatable skill, all the checkpoints are there for them to be good late in games, including experienced guards, a big time shooter in Dylan Garrity, the Big Sky POY Mikh McKinney, and a worthy third fiddle in Cody Demps.
McKinney is the biggest reason to think they can win... no matter if you think he should or shouldn't have been the POY, he has been great all year. He can shoot, drive to the hole, find his teammates, and make plays on the defensive side of the court. He can do it all, and that elite player gives the Hornets a shot every time.
Why they can lose in round 1: In the last section, I wrote about success and experience in close games, but that may have made them a little overrated at times, as winning close games can statistically be fluky. For all the hope that Eric Stuteville would provide consistent inside presence, that hasn't really happened this year, which leaves them too reliant on their guards. That can also be a problem defensively, as guys like Nick Hornsby and Zach Mills are good players, but not really great interior forces defensively. The other factor for the Hornets is the way the season ended... They needed one win in the final two games to host the tournament, and plans were in place to convert the rec center on campus for the Big Sky tournament - and then things came crashing down. Will there be a hangover for their confidence?
#4 Northern Arizona
Why they can win it: After Montana, they have the best defense in the conference, and the ability to get stops seems to translate better to tournaments when scouting time may be at a minimum. They are anchored by Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin, but they have several big bodies down low.
Offensively, Kris Yanku is playing great basketball, and nobody is better than him at driving and dishing, or driving to finish. He has a great understanding of pace and angles, which allows him to get to the rim almost at any time. Late in a close game, he is the best weapon in the conference. Flanking him are shooters Quinton Upshur and Aaseem Dixon. Those two guys struggled a bit earlier in the year, but have played better in the second half of the Big Sky slate.
Why they can lose in round 1: While Yanku is a great shot creator, the offense can stagnant a bit if he is not out there, as Upshur and Dixon can be limited at times in creating shots for themselves or offense for others. If the outside shots aren't falling, they can struggle to score. Another issue is depth... They only go 8 deep, and don't really like to play many guards. It could be easy to wear down. Last, they always seem to have trouble with UNC... they lost to them last year in the opening round, and lost to them in Greeley just a couple weeks ago. It's a tough opener if the Bears are playing well, which they always seem to do in the Big Sky tournament.
#5 Northern Colorado
Why they can win it: They have tons of depth and balance, meaning they could be able to weather the storm better than some if their main guys struggle. Tevin Svihovec was the only member of the team to get into postseason awards but guys like Cam Michael and Tim Huskisson have the ability to carry the offense for stretches. Another thing is that their defense has been bad this year, but they have guys like Cody Spence and Jordan Wilson that can pressure you for 94 feet, which places extra pressure on defense, especially in a tournament when teams might be a little tighter.
Their offense can be as explosive as anyone in the conference, and if some of their role players get hot for a couple games, they could carry the momentum from it right into the NCAA Tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: The balance is great, but they don't necessarily have that one guy that can carry them and get them a good shot when it's needed. Tevin Svihovec is that guy at times, but you don't necessarily trust him as much as guys like Jordan Gregory, Tyler Harvey, Miki McKinney, or Kris Yanku. But really, the biggest worry here is defense, just like always. In terms of PPP allowed, they were the second worst defensive team in the country. It's hard to win three games in three days like that.
#6 Portland State
Why they can win it: In conference play, they beat EWU on the road... and also lost at home in double digits on three occasions. Point being - they are unpredictable. On any given night, they can beat anyone, which can make them dangerous. If Braxton Tucker plays (still trying to find out), their front line is as explosive as anyone, and a backcourt with Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins can score baskets. With a trio of senior guards, they take good care of the basketball and don't give opponents extra possessions. Their talent level, when all healthy and playing right, gives them the ceiling of a team that can win this tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: As mentioned above, they are very unpredictable, and prone to games where they just don't seem to come out and play. This is not just a problem for this year's team, as it seems to have happened previous years as well. If they don't play their best, they will lose in the opening round to Sac State. Their defense is not the gaping liability it has been in some past years, but it's still not one you trust to get a stop when you need. Also, unlike previous years, their offense has been merely average in Big Sky play. It's easier to see a path for teams like UNC or Idaho in the bottom half of the bracket to make a run than it is to see the Vikings string three straight great games together.
#7 Idaho
Why they can win it: Like PSU, the Vandals are a team with a high ceiling - they beat Montana, Sac State, and almost beat EWU twice. They are explosive offensively when things are working, from Mike Scott creating shots for himself and others, Connor Hill as one of the best shooters in the conference, and Sekou Wiggs getting to the foul line. They are never out of a game because of how well they can score the basketball.
They also don't get intimidated by anyone. They averaged almost 90 PPG against EWU, arguably should have beat Sac State on the road, and of course had that great comeback against Montana. They don't have to just believe they can beat the best teams in the conference - they know they can. That counts for a lot.
Why they can lose in round 1: Despite all those impressive showings against good teams, they were a Southern Utah win over Portland State on the final day of the regular season away from missing the Big Sky tournament. To call them inconsistent would be an insult to the word "inconsistent." They lack rim protectors so they struggle stopping teams inside, which could lead to a big day from Venky Jois in the tournament opening round. I am as fascinated by them as anyone - I can't wait to see which Idaho team shows up, because they could crash the party,. They could also go out in a fiery crash.
#8 Weber State
Why they can win it: Things have not come together for the Wildcats this year, but it's not like they don't have talent. They were the preseason pick to win the conference, and all those pieces that made voters vote for them are still there. If Jeremy Senglin is able to come back and play (which seems like a safe bet), that's a huge boost for the Wildcats and their offense. When healthy, he's their best offensive guy, and their best chance for an outlier performance. Weber also has Joel Bolomboy, who still has the ability to take over games with his rebounding and shot blocking. For all of Weber's struggles, they finished third in the conference in defensive deficiency.
Plus, let's not remember that Weber State is the defending champions. Though they are missing a lot of those guys that made it happen, many in the rotation played huge minutes for a title winning team last season. Last, for what it's worth, they did beat Montana earlier this year... granted, it was two months ago.
Why they can lose in round 1: For one thing, they are playing Montana at Montana. They are seven point underdogs, and even that line feels a little bit low to me. When the two teams met in late February, the Grizzlies won by 11. They have struggled to score the basketball even when Senglin has been healthy, and the finished eighth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency. Often, when underdog teams win games they aren't expected to, it happens through shooting. However, Weber was 11th in the Big Sky, shooting just 34.5% from downtown during conference play. If they get hot and shoot the lights out for three straight games, it won't be something that could have been expected.
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#1 Montana
Why they can win it: For one, they have home court advantage. The Grizzlies were 8-1 at home during Big Sky play, losing just to EWU on February 5th. The Grizzlies are also playing the best basketball of anyuone in the Big Sky the past few weeks... after that loss to EWU on 2/5, they went 7-1, with the only loss coming in double OT at Idaho (a game they had a 97.2% chance to win with 3:24 left).
They are also the best defensive team in the Big Sky, at 0.998 PPP during conference play. Their 0.12 PPP margin in Big Sky play is easily the best in the conference. Tying it all together, the Griz have a luxury in Martin Breunig that is rare in the Big Sky - a big man with a solid offensive skill set. He was a unanimous first-teamer and you could easily make the case for him as Big Sky POY.
Let me put it this way... If Sac State had finished with a win and hosted, Montana still might have been the favorite to win the conference. As it is, they are clearly the favorite going into things. In early February, I said Montana was a definite contender (unintentionally angering Sac State fans in the process), but they came on stronger than I ever expected.
Why they can lose in round 1: In two of their four Big Sky losses, they had big leads late, and lost it at the end. Such that that is a trend, they could struggle to hold onto leads.With it happening in just two games, it would be far too strong to say they have a tendency to blow late leads, but it's out there. The biggest concern for them, I think, is that Martin Breunig can get into foul trouble. In both of the aforementioned games, he fouled out. While Jordan Gregory is very good, and they have role players that can do some nice things, everything is harder when Breunig is not out there. Losing him to foul trouble early in a game could be the clearest path to a loss for them.
#2 Eastern Washington
Why they can win it: The Eagles pose the best chance of beating Montana, as they did it once and almost did it again. The Grizzlies have been great at forcing turnovers, but EWU can take care of the ball, and Venky Jois can match up with Breunig down low. That would be a heck of a title game!
The Eagles have shown they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Sky, as they had some big road wins earlier in the year, and have looked downright unstoppable offensively at times. We all know about Tyler Harvey and Venky Jois, but Bogdan Bliznyk is a legit weapon, Drew Brandon does a bit of everything, and Parker Kelly can shoot. Even Felix Van Hofe has hit some big shots. They are tough to defend because they almost always have five guys out there that can score.
Why they can lose in round 1: A lot of this has been due to injuries at times, but they haven't quite seemed to be playing to their peak over the second half of conference play. Save for a date with MSU on 2/26, all of their other last eight games were either within four points or went to OT. That shows some close losses, but an elite team should be able to blow out a couple of those teams. As always, the key for them is defense. They finished fifth at 1.08 PPP allowed in conference play, but teams shot 42% from downtown against them. If their own shots aren't falling, they need to be able to rely on the D to pick up the slack for a while before the offense gets rolling again. It remains to be seen if they can do that.
#3 Sacramento State
Why they can win it: Until the last week, they looked like they would be the hosts of the tournament, so obviously they have the talent to be near the top. They have been great in close games, and while it's debatable if that is a repeatable skill, all the checkpoints are there for them to be good late in games, including experienced guards, a big time shooter in Dylan Garrity, the Big Sky POY Mikh McKinney, and a worthy third fiddle in Cody Demps.
McKinney is the biggest reason to think they can win... no matter if you think he should or shouldn't have been the POY, he has been great all year. He can shoot, drive to the hole, find his teammates, and make plays on the defensive side of the court. He can do it all, and that elite player gives the Hornets a shot every time.
Why they can lose in round 1: In the last section, I wrote about success and experience in close games, but that may have made them a little overrated at times, as winning close games can statistically be fluky. For all the hope that Eric Stuteville would provide consistent inside presence, that hasn't really happened this year, which leaves them too reliant on their guards. That can also be a problem defensively, as guys like Nick Hornsby and Zach Mills are good players, but not really great interior forces defensively. The other factor for the Hornets is the way the season ended... They needed one win in the final two games to host the tournament, and plans were in place to convert the rec center on campus for the Big Sky tournament - and then things came crashing down. Will there be a hangover for their confidence?
#4 Northern Arizona
Why they can win it: After Montana, they have the best defense in the conference, and the ability to get stops seems to translate better to tournaments when scouting time may be at a minimum. They are anchored by Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin, but they have several big bodies down low.
Offensively, Kris Yanku is playing great basketball, and nobody is better than him at driving and dishing, or driving to finish. He has a great understanding of pace and angles, which allows him to get to the rim almost at any time. Late in a close game, he is the best weapon in the conference. Flanking him are shooters Quinton Upshur and Aaseem Dixon. Those two guys struggled a bit earlier in the year, but have played better in the second half of the Big Sky slate.
Why they can lose in round 1: While Yanku is a great shot creator, the offense can stagnant a bit if he is not out there, as Upshur and Dixon can be limited at times in creating shots for themselves or offense for others. If the outside shots aren't falling, they can struggle to score. Another issue is depth... They only go 8 deep, and don't really like to play many guards. It could be easy to wear down. Last, they always seem to have trouble with UNC... they lost to them last year in the opening round, and lost to them in Greeley just a couple weeks ago. It's a tough opener if the Bears are playing well, which they always seem to do in the Big Sky tournament.
#5 Northern Colorado
Why they can win it: They have tons of depth and balance, meaning they could be able to weather the storm better than some if their main guys struggle. Tevin Svihovec was the only member of the team to get into postseason awards but guys like Cam Michael and Tim Huskisson have the ability to carry the offense for stretches. Another thing is that their defense has been bad this year, but they have guys like Cody Spence and Jordan Wilson that can pressure you for 94 feet, which places extra pressure on defense, especially in a tournament when teams might be a little tighter.
Their offense can be as explosive as anyone in the conference, and if some of their role players get hot for a couple games, they could carry the momentum from it right into the NCAA Tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: The balance is great, but they don't necessarily have that one guy that can carry them and get them a good shot when it's needed. Tevin Svihovec is that guy at times, but you don't necessarily trust him as much as guys like Jordan Gregory, Tyler Harvey, Miki McKinney, or Kris Yanku. But really, the biggest worry here is defense, just like always. In terms of PPP allowed, they were the second worst defensive team in the country. It's hard to win three games in three days like that.
#6 Portland State
Why they can win it: In conference play, they beat EWU on the road... and also lost at home in double digits on three occasions. Point being - they are unpredictable. On any given night, they can beat anyone, which can make them dangerous. If Braxton Tucker plays (still trying to find out), their front line is as explosive as anyone, and a backcourt with Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins can score baskets. With a trio of senior guards, they take good care of the basketball and don't give opponents extra possessions. Their talent level, when all healthy and playing right, gives them the ceiling of a team that can win this tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: As mentioned above, they are very unpredictable, and prone to games where they just don't seem to come out and play. This is not just a problem for this year's team, as it seems to have happened previous years as well. If they don't play their best, they will lose in the opening round to Sac State. Their defense is not the gaping liability it has been in some past years, but it's still not one you trust to get a stop when you need. Also, unlike previous years, their offense has been merely average in Big Sky play. It's easier to see a path for teams like UNC or Idaho in the bottom half of the bracket to make a run than it is to see the Vikings string three straight great games together.
#7 Idaho
Why they can win it: Like PSU, the Vandals are a team with a high ceiling - they beat Montana, Sac State, and almost beat EWU twice. They are explosive offensively when things are working, from Mike Scott creating shots for himself and others, Connor Hill as one of the best shooters in the conference, and Sekou Wiggs getting to the foul line. They are never out of a game because of how well they can score the basketball.
They also don't get intimidated by anyone. They averaged almost 90 PPG against EWU, arguably should have beat Sac State on the road, and of course had that great comeback against Montana. They don't have to just believe they can beat the best teams in the conference - they know they can. That counts for a lot.
Why they can lose in round 1: Despite all those impressive showings against good teams, they were a Southern Utah win over Portland State on the final day of the regular season away from missing the Big Sky tournament. To call them inconsistent would be an insult to the word "inconsistent." They lack rim protectors so they struggle stopping teams inside, which could lead to a big day from Venky Jois in the tournament opening round. I am as fascinated by them as anyone - I can't wait to see which Idaho team shows up, because they could crash the party,. They could also go out in a fiery crash.
#8 Weber State
Why they can win it: Things have not come together for the Wildcats this year, but it's not like they don't have talent. They were the preseason pick to win the conference, and all those pieces that made voters vote for them are still there. If Jeremy Senglin is able to come back and play (which seems like a safe bet), that's a huge boost for the Wildcats and their offense. When healthy, he's their best offensive guy, and their best chance for an outlier performance. Weber also has Joel Bolomboy, who still has the ability to take over games with his rebounding and shot blocking. For all of Weber's struggles, they finished third in the conference in defensive deficiency.
Plus, let's not remember that Weber State is the defending champions. Though they are missing a lot of those guys that made it happen, many in the rotation played huge minutes for a title winning team last season. Last, for what it's worth, they did beat Montana earlier this year... granted, it was two months ago.
Why they can lose in round 1: For one thing, they are playing Montana at Montana. They are seven point underdogs, and even that line feels a little bit low to me. When the two teams met in late February, the Grizzlies won by 11. They have struggled to score the basketball even when Senglin has been healthy, and the finished eighth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency. Often, when underdog teams win games they aren't expected to, it happens through shooting. However, Weber was 11th in the Big Sky, shooting just 34.5% from downtown during conference play. If they get hot and shoot the lights out for three straight games, it won't be something that could have been expected.
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Big Sky Awards Announced
As you know by now, Montana and Eastern Washington are the co-champions in the Big Sky, with Montana earning the right to host thanks to a tiebreaker victories. Sac State's hearts were broken by a Kris Yanku runner, ending their dreams of hosting the tournament.
At the back end of the bracket, Weber State and Idaho did what they could to lose their spots by losing on Saturday, but got bailed out when Portland State went on the road and beat Southern Utah, saving a spot for both the Wildcats and Thunderbirds. It was a great Saturday of basketball!
The first-round matchups are:
(1) Montana vs (8) Weber State
(2) Eastern Washington vs (7) Idaho
(3) Sacramento State vs (6) Portland State
(4) Northern Arizona vs (5) Northern Colorado
That is a great slate of matchups! I will have much more to come this week in terms of previews and predictions, I am just getting back into the swing of things after being out of town all weekend.
The other news was the release of the awards!
Here is the first-team Big Sky:
- Mikh McKinney of Sacramento State
- Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington
- Martin Breunig of Montana
- Venky Jois of Eastern Washington
- Kris Yanku of Northern Arizona
- Jordan Gregory of Montana
McKinney was the Player of the Year, in a mild surprise (I thought it may be Breunig because of Montana's spot in the standings). On first thought, without digging into things too much, I can't disagree with any of the choices, including the pick of McKinney as POY. That is very well deserved! I will give more thoughts and awards and all-conference teams next week once the conference tourney talk dies down.
The second-team Big Sky:
- Connor Hill of Idaho
- Mike Scott of Idaho
- Joel Bolomboy of Weber State
- Dylan Garrity of Sacramento State
- Quinton Upshur of Northern Arizona
Honorable-Mention Big Sky:
- Jeffrey Solarin of Idaho State
- Drew Brandon of Eastern Washington
- Chris Hansen of Idaho State
- Mario Dunn of Montana
- Aaseem Dixon of Northern Arizona
- Tevin Svihovec of Northern Colorado
- DaShaun Wiggins of Portland State
- Jeremy Senglin of Weber State
In the other awards, Bogdan Blizynuk was the Freshman of the Year, which was an easy choice. Jordyn Martin was the Defensive POY, which was a little surprise because he doesn't block shots (and numbers usually win awards), but it was a very good choice, as he anchors their D. Marcus Colbert was the Top Reserve, another good choice.
Jim Hayford and Brian Katz shared Coach of the Year honors. I can't argue with those guys, and I couldn't have argued if Travis DeCuire or Nick Robinson had won the award either, as all of those guys were worthy.
Any thoughts?
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At the back end of the bracket, Weber State and Idaho did what they could to lose their spots by losing on Saturday, but got bailed out when Portland State went on the road and beat Southern Utah, saving a spot for both the Wildcats and Thunderbirds. It was a great Saturday of basketball!
The first-round matchups are:
(1) Montana vs (8) Weber State
(2) Eastern Washington vs (7) Idaho
(3) Sacramento State vs (6) Portland State
(4) Northern Arizona vs (5) Northern Colorado
That is a great slate of matchups! I will have much more to come this week in terms of previews and predictions, I am just getting back into the swing of things after being out of town all weekend.
The other news was the release of the awards!
Here is the first-team Big Sky:
- Mikh McKinney of Sacramento State
- Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington
- Martin Breunig of Montana
- Venky Jois of Eastern Washington
- Kris Yanku of Northern Arizona
- Jordan Gregory of Montana
McKinney was the Player of the Year, in a mild surprise (I thought it may be Breunig because of Montana's spot in the standings). On first thought, without digging into things too much, I can't disagree with any of the choices, including the pick of McKinney as POY. That is very well deserved! I will give more thoughts and awards and all-conference teams next week once the conference tourney talk dies down.
The second-team Big Sky:
- Connor Hill of Idaho
- Mike Scott of Idaho
- Joel Bolomboy of Weber State
- Dylan Garrity of Sacramento State
- Quinton Upshur of Northern Arizona
Honorable-Mention Big Sky:
- Jeffrey Solarin of Idaho State
- Drew Brandon of Eastern Washington
- Chris Hansen of Idaho State
- Mario Dunn of Montana
- Aaseem Dixon of Northern Arizona
- Tevin Svihovec of Northern Colorado
- DaShaun Wiggins of Portland State
- Jeremy Senglin of Weber State
In the other awards, Bogdan Blizynuk was the Freshman of the Year, which was an easy choice. Jordyn Martin was the Defensive POY, which was a little surprise because he doesn't block shots (and numbers usually win awards), but it was a very good choice, as he anchors their D. Marcus Colbert was the Top Reserve, another good choice.
Jim Hayford and Brian Katz shared Coach of the Year honors. I can't argue with those guys, and I couldn't have argued if Travis DeCuire or Nick Robinson had won the award either, as all of those guys were worthy.
Any thoughts?
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Friday, March 6, 2015
Big Sky Tiebreaker Scenarios
There are many, many scenarios in the Big Sky for Saturday, with a lot of different ways teams could be seeded in one place or another. I'm not going to try and hit on all of them, but I'll try to hit the main things that can happen.
One note of caution: Don't take this as Gospel truth. Obviously, I'm trying to be as accurate as possible, and not state anything incorrectly, but with so many scenarios, feel free to double check my work!
As far as I can tell, the race to host the conference tournament is down to three teams after Sacramento State's loss on Thursday - the Hornets can still win, as can Eastern Washington or Montana. Based on my analysis (which I'll say shortly), I don't believe Northern Arizona can host the tournament.
There are a few scenarios that are pretty clear cut in terms of determining the host of the Big Sky tournament:
- If Sac State beats NAU, they host the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU wins, Montana loses - then EWU hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana wins - then Montana hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana loses - then we would have a four way tie, with four teams at five losses. Oddly, this scenario is easy to figure out, because all four teams would be tied, you would just look at the records in the game between the teams. In that case, based on my understanding, Sac State would be the 1 seed, followed by Northern Arizona, followed by Montana, and EWU as the four seed.
[UPDATE: I have changed this section around as I have learned some new information]
The last possible scenario is that Sac State loses, but EWU and Montana both win. In that case, the Grizzlies and Eagles are tied at 14-4, while the Jacks and Hornets would be tied at 13-5.
EWU and Montana both split, which is the first tiebreaker. Then, the next tiebreaker would be the winning percentage against the next collective group. In that case, Montana would be the host, because they went 1-1 against NAU/Sac, while EWU went 1-2 against them. That would give Montana the tiebreaker, and they would host.
Then, Sac State would be third and NAU fourth, since the Hornets were 1-0 against Montana, while the Jacks were 0-1.
---
Northern Colorado is the best bet for the fifth seed because they just need a win, and they've got it. If they lose, in possible head to head ties for the fifth seed, they would beat Weber State, but lose to Idaho. If they are simply tied with Portland State, the tiebreaker winner would depend on the order of the top seeds, as they split the season series.
Weber State, Portland State, and Idaho are all into the tournament with a win or Southern Utah loss, but could potentially still miss the tournament if they lose and SUU wins.
Southern Utah is actually in pretty decent shape if they beat Portland State. They hold the tiebreaker over Weber State (who they beat twice) and Idaho (who they beat in their only meeting). SUU fans should also be rooting for Sac State to win - now that they have a win over the Hornets, that would help them in a tiebreaker against Portland State, should it come to that, since SUU is 1-1 against the Hornets, but PSU is 0-2.
EDIT: After poking around a bit more, I think Southern Utah is in if they win.
Since SUU plays PSU, if they win, there would be four other scenarios involving Weber State/Idaho and a tie for the final spot:
- Idaho wins, Weber State wins - In this case, SUU and Portland State would be tied at 8-10. They split the season series, so then things would get tricky. From my understanding, SUU would do better if it came down to Sac State being the definitive team, because they are 1-1 against the Hornets, while the Vikings are 0-2. PSU would get the advantage if EWU was the tiebreaker... BUT, EWU cannot be the definitive tiebreaker, because if they win, that means Weber State has lost, and Weber State would be the odd man out. So in the scenario of Idaho and Weber State both winning, that would leave Portland State out of the tournament.
- Idaho wins, Weber State loses - This would bring about a 3-way tie between Weber, PSU, and SUU. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 3-1, PSU 2-1, Weber State 0-3, so Weber State would miss out.
- Idaho loses, Weber State wins - This would bring a 3-way tie between SUU, PSU, and Idaho. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 2-1, PSU 2-2, and Idaho 1-2, so Idaho would miss the tournament.
- Idaho loses, Weber State loses - This would bring about a four way tie at 8-10. In the record between the four teams, SUU would be 4-1, PSU 3-2, Idaho 2-3, and WSU 1-4. That would leave Weber State as the odd team out.
That is a quick rundown of things... by no means comprehensive, but hopefully I've hit the key points. If you have any more specific questions, please let me know and I will try and answer them. I will try to update some more scenarios in the race for the final spot if I am able to get more time today.
Also, a programming note... I will unfortunately be out of town this weekend, as we are traveling for a baptism... So, I will try and post on Sunday, and hopefully tweet here and there, but I'm not sure how that will look. Either way, I'll have lots of coverage next week on everything Big Sky tournament related.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
One note of caution: Don't take this as Gospel truth. Obviously, I'm trying to be as accurate as possible, and not state anything incorrectly, but with so many scenarios, feel free to double check my work!
As far as I can tell, the race to host the conference tournament is down to three teams after Sacramento State's loss on Thursday - the Hornets can still win, as can Eastern Washington or Montana. Based on my analysis (which I'll say shortly), I don't believe Northern Arizona can host the tournament.
There are a few scenarios that are pretty clear cut in terms of determining the host of the Big Sky tournament:
- If Sac State beats NAU, they host the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU wins, Montana loses - then EWU hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana wins - then Montana hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana loses - then we would have a four way tie, with four teams at five losses. Oddly, this scenario is easy to figure out, because all four teams would be tied, you would just look at the records in the game between the teams. In that case, based on my understanding, Sac State would be the 1 seed, followed by Northern Arizona, followed by Montana, and EWU as the four seed.
[UPDATE: I have changed this section around as I have learned some new information]
The last possible scenario is that Sac State loses, but EWU and Montana both win. In that case, the Grizzlies and Eagles are tied at 14-4, while the Jacks and Hornets would be tied at 13-5.
EWU and Montana both split, which is the first tiebreaker. Then, the next tiebreaker would be the winning percentage against the next collective group. In that case, Montana would be the host, because they went 1-1 against NAU/Sac, while EWU went 1-2 against them. That would give Montana the tiebreaker, and they would host.
Then, Sac State would be third and NAU fourth, since the Hornets were 1-0 against Montana, while the Jacks were 0-1.
---
Northern Colorado is the best bet for the fifth seed because they just need a win, and they've got it. If they lose, in possible head to head ties for the fifth seed, they would beat Weber State, but lose to Idaho. If they are simply tied with Portland State, the tiebreaker winner would depend on the order of the top seeds, as they split the season series.
Weber State, Portland State, and Idaho are all into the tournament with a win or Southern Utah loss, but could potentially still miss the tournament if they lose and SUU wins.
Southern Utah is actually in pretty decent shape if they beat Portland State. They hold the tiebreaker over Weber State (who they beat twice) and Idaho (who they beat in their only meeting). SUU fans should also be rooting for Sac State to win - now that they have a win over the Hornets, that would help them in a tiebreaker against Portland State, should it come to that, since SUU is 1-1 against the Hornets, but PSU is 0-2.
EDIT: After poking around a bit more, I think Southern Utah is in if they win.
Since SUU plays PSU, if they win, there would be four other scenarios involving Weber State/Idaho and a tie for the final spot:
- Idaho wins, Weber State wins - In this case, SUU and Portland State would be tied at 8-10. They split the season series, so then things would get tricky. From my understanding, SUU would do better if it came down to Sac State being the definitive team, because they are 1-1 against the Hornets, while the Vikings are 0-2. PSU would get the advantage if EWU was the tiebreaker... BUT, EWU cannot be the definitive tiebreaker, because if they win, that means Weber State has lost, and Weber State would be the odd man out. So in the scenario of Idaho and Weber State both winning, that would leave Portland State out of the tournament.
- Idaho wins, Weber State loses - This would bring about a 3-way tie between Weber, PSU, and SUU. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 3-1, PSU 2-1, Weber State 0-3, so Weber State would miss out.
- Idaho loses, Weber State wins - This would bring a 3-way tie between SUU, PSU, and Idaho. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 2-1, PSU 2-2, and Idaho 1-2, so Idaho would miss the tournament.
- Idaho loses, Weber State loses - This would bring about a four way tie at 8-10. In the record between the four teams, SUU would be 4-1, PSU 3-2, Idaho 2-3, and WSU 1-4. That would leave Weber State as the odd team out.
That is a quick rundown of things... by no means comprehensive, but hopefully I've hit the key points. If you have any more specific questions, please let me know and I will try and answer them. I will try to update some more scenarios in the race for the final spot if I am able to get more time today.
Also, a programming note... I will unfortunately be out of town this weekend, as we are traveling for a baptism... So, I will try and post on Sunday, and hopefully tweet here and there, but I'm not sure how that will look. Either way, I'll have lots of coverage next week on everything Big Sky tournament related.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Thursday Predictions
Four Big Sky games on the docket... none of them involve two teams that are outside of the tournament picture, so that should make for a fun night of games! Let's run through them.
Sacramento State @ Southern Utah
We already know the stakes of the game. Sac State hosts the Big Sky tournament if they win, and SUU could be eliminated from the tournament if they lose (coupled with a Weber State loss). While SUU is at home, they are just 3-4 in Cedar City in Big Sky play this year, so it's not like they're invincible there. I think the Hornets can taste that conference title, and that will be all the motivation they need to go out and get it. Sacramento State 77, Southern Utah 71
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State
The Bengals are in the middle of a lost season - at 3-13 they are just trying to get out of the cellar. On the flip side, EWU still has a shot for the title. The Bengals zone has a tendency to give teams good looks from the outside, and that plays right into the Eagles hands. It was a fairly close game when these teams played in Cheney, and should be close again, as ISU will look to slow things way down. However, they won't have enough offensive firepower to win this game. Eastern Washington 71, Idaho State 61
Idaho @ Weber State
Idaho is technically not in yet, so they are trying to clinch a berth in the Big Sky tournament. Weber State got great play last week from Chris Golden, who was one of the co-players of the week in the conference. He averaged 21 points, and shot the ball well. That is production they desperately need, since leading guard Jeremy Senglin is still out with a broken jaw. With the way Idaho has played this year, you never know what to expect from half to half, and with Weber playing for their tournament lives, I expect them to come out a little stronger. Weber State 69, Idaho 67
Portland State @ Northern Arizona
Like Idaho, PSU needs a win to completely clinch a tourney spot, though they are in better shape due to holding a tiebreaker over Southern Utah and Weber State (in fact, I'm not sure how they could fall out of the tournament, but I'm trying to confirm if they've clinched or not). However, I just think NAU is the better team here, and playing at home, they should win this game. NAU should be able to create second chances, and get some good looks from three-point range. In a weird way, it might be advantageous for NAU to lose this and give PSU a better chance of moving to the 5 seed (rather than UNC or Idaho), but obviously they won't be thinking like that. Northern Arizona 76, Portland State 70
Thoughts?
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Sacramento State @ Southern Utah
We already know the stakes of the game. Sac State hosts the Big Sky tournament if they win, and SUU could be eliminated from the tournament if they lose (coupled with a Weber State loss). While SUU is at home, they are just 3-4 in Cedar City in Big Sky play this year, so it's not like they're invincible there. I think the Hornets can taste that conference title, and that will be all the motivation they need to go out and get it. Sacramento State 77, Southern Utah 71
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State
The Bengals are in the middle of a lost season - at 3-13 they are just trying to get out of the cellar. On the flip side, EWU still has a shot for the title. The Bengals zone has a tendency to give teams good looks from the outside, and that plays right into the Eagles hands. It was a fairly close game when these teams played in Cheney, and should be close again, as ISU will look to slow things way down. However, they won't have enough offensive firepower to win this game. Eastern Washington 71, Idaho State 61
Idaho @ Weber State
Idaho is technically not in yet, so they are trying to clinch a berth in the Big Sky tournament. Weber State got great play last week from Chris Golden, who was one of the co-players of the week in the conference. He averaged 21 points, and shot the ball well. That is production they desperately need, since leading guard Jeremy Senglin is still out with a broken jaw. With the way Idaho has played this year, you never know what to expect from half to half, and with Weber playing for their tournament lives, I expect them to come out a little stronger. Weber State 69, Idaho 67
Portland State @ Northern Arizona
Like Idaho, PSU needs a win to completely clinch a tourney spot, though they are in better shape due to holding a tiebreaker over Southern Utah and Weber State (in fact, I'm not sure how they could fall out of the tournament, but I'm trying to confirm if they've clinched or not). However, I just think NAU is the better team here, and playing at home, they should win this game. NAU should be able to create second chances, and get some good looks from three-point range. In a weird way, it might be advantageous for NAU to lose this and give PSU a better chance of moving to the 5 seed (rather than UNC or Idaho), but obviously they won't be thinking like that. Northern Arizona 76, Portland State 70
Thoughts?
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Monday, March 2, 2015
Race For Final Tournament Spot
We already know that the battle for the top seed in the Big Sky tournament could be relatively simple, tiebreaker wise - if Sac State wins one more game, they are the host. The race for the eighth seed is about just as simple.
Montana State, North Dakota, and Idaho State are all out. It will take at least 7 wins to make the tournament, and none of them can get more than five.
Idaho (8 wins) and Portland State (8 wins) could miss the tournament, but it doesn't seem likely, since it would require losing both games, SUU winning both games, Weber State winning at least one game, and the tiebreakers going against them. It's certainly plausible, but not the most likely scenario.
The most likely scenario is that either Weber State or Southern Utah will hold the eighth seed when the Big Sky tournament begins. The tiebreaker is very straight foward... SUU swept the season series, so if the teams have the same record, they are in.
Right now, Weber State is 7-9, and they end the year by hosting Idaho, and then hosting Eastern Washington. Southern Utah is 6-10, and they end the year by hosting Sacramento State, and then Portland State. Both are very tough.
KenPom forecasts that Weber has a 54% chance to beat Idaho, and a 37% chance to beat EWU. SUU, meanwhile, has a 40% chance of beating Sac State, and a 55% chance of beating PSU. Take those numbers for what their worth, but it gives you a general idea of how they stack up.
The upshot is this - With Sac State having a ton to play for, and Idaho's sporadic play, it wouldn't be a huge shock if this race is decided by the end of Thursday night, and there is no drama for the final spot. However, if the two teams are still separated by one game, we will have a fun Saturday.
The most likely scenario is that we'll see Weber State take on Sacramento State in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament, but it wouldn't take much to turn that prediction on its head.
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Montana State, North Dakota, and Idaho State are all out. It will take at least 7 wins to make the tournament, and none of them can get more than five.
Idaho (8 wins) and Portland State (8 wins) could miss the tournament, but it doesn't seem likely, since it would require losing both games, SUU winning both games, Weber State winning at least one game, and the tiebreakers going against them. It's certainly plausible, but not the most likely scenario.
The most likely scenario is that either Weber State or Southern Utah will hold the eighth seed when the Big Sky tournament begins. The tiebreaker is very straight foward... SUU swept the season series, so if the teams have the same record, they are in.
Right now, Weber State is 7-9, and they end the year by hosting Idaho, and then hosting Eastern Washington. Southern Utah is 6-10, and they end the year by hosting Sacramento State, and then Portland State. Both are very tough.
KenPom forecasts that Weber has a 54% chance to beat Idaho, and a 37% chance to beat EWU. SUU, meanwhile, has a 40% chance of beating Sac State, and a 55% chance of beating PSU. Take those numbers for what their worth, but it gives you a general idea of how they stack up.
The upshot is this - With Sac State having a ton to play for, and Idaho's sporadic play, it wouldn't be a huge shock if this race is decided by the end of Thursday night, and there is no drama for the final spot. However, if the two teams are still separated by one game, we will have a fun Saturday.
The most likely scenario is that we'll see Weber State take on Sacramento State in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament, but it wouldn't take much to turn that prediction on its head.
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Sunday, February 22, 2015
All Home Teams Win on Saturday Night
Now that we are down to the final few weeks of the season, every game seems to have big implications on the Big Sky. There is the race for the top seed (which we'll look at in more depth later this week), and there is also an interesting race brewing for the final tournament spot. On Saturday, there were six games, and the home team won them all. Here are the scores:
Northern Arizona 73, Eastern Washington 69
Montana 74, Weber State 63
Sacramento State 74, North Dakota 66
Portland State 91, Northern Colorado 75
Southern Utah 79, Idaho 77 (OT)
Montana State 67, Idaho State 53
Some notes and observations:
- Idaho is an interesting team, because they have shown they can beat anyone in the Big Sky, but they can also look so flat at times. They led Southern Utah by 10 midway through the first half, and led by three at the break. Then they came out lifeless in the second half, and trailed by 10 with about five minutes to go. They turned it on at that point, eventually sending the game to OT, but the Thunderbirds recovered for the key win. It's hard to know what team to expect.
- Southern Utah still has a chance to make the final tournament spot (they are 5-9, while Weber State is 6-9 in eighth place), but either way, they are an interesting team. They play so many guys, and their youth was evident at times (especially down the stretch), but they always play hard, and they are certainly getting better. James McGee is a real keeper at guard, and guys like Trey Kennedy, Juwan Major, John Marshall, and Race Parsons all made key plays. I still don't love their chances to go to the Big Sky tourney this year, but pencil them in for next year.
- Montana doesn't do anything flashy, but they continue to pile up wins, now five in a row. They got off to a slow start, but controlled the game from late in the first half on. They are playing a shell of the Weber State team we thought we'd see, but they have a lot of balance. One key for them is that Mike Weisner has struggled a bit in his senior year, but he is showing good signs the last couple of games. Earlier this month I wrote that the Grizzlies are a contender, and it is more true than I even expected. They finish up with three road games (including at Idaho and EWU), but they've been playing better than anyone lately. KenPom now has Martin Breunig rated as the best player in the Big Sky so far this season.
- Sac State didn't get any style points for their win over UND, but at this point in the year, it's all about winning. Cody Demps seems to get better every game - after putting up a stat line of 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists, he threw up a 9:0 assist to turnover ratio on Saturday. Mikh McKinney and Dylan Garrity get a ton of credit, and rightfully so, but Demps is one of the most improved guys in the Big Sky. He is a great glue guy.
- The loss dropped North Dakota to 4-11. Two of their final three games are at home, but it's probably safe to count them out. Ditto for Idaho State, who dropped to 3-12 with a loss to Montana State. Speaking of the Bobcats, it's almost definitely too little too late, but they have won three of four, and are showing some fight. Their schedule is brutal down the stretch (and they would have to run the table), but they are showing the potential of what they can be under Brian Fish.
- Tyler Harvey has had a nightmare three games since returning from his thigh injury, adding a 6/19 stat line on Saturday. I have nothing to suggest it's anything but a standard shooting slump (he played all 40 on Saturday, so I don't think health is an issue), but hopefully he gets back on track. The Eagles need him.
- I wrote about NAU in December and how they are a good team, and they have done a good job of making me look somewhat prescient lately, At 10-4, they have won 7 of 8, and they are still in the race for the title. We know about their defense (they are second in the Big Sky behind Montana), but the offense has come alive a bit more during their hot stretch. On Saturday, they beat EWU even though Quinton Upshur was held to four points. Their big men have been playing well lately, Aaseem Dixon is shooting the ball well, and Kris Yanku is doing a bit of everything for them. They are a very solid team.
- Last, Portland State ran all over Northern Colorado, and now own the fifth seed. They won 91-75, thanks to 51 second half points. Plus, they did it without Braxton Tucker, who left the game early with an injury. Everything that you can possibly do well offensively, they did - from shooting the ball well, getting good shots (sometimes it looked like a layup line), rebounding, and taking care of the ball. It was an all-around offensive effort.
- Northern Colorado is in freefall mode with now, as they've lost four straight games, and now rank 348 out of 351 teams in KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings. It is somewhat mirroring last year, where a solid start was undone when they stopped playing any semblance of defense midway through the year. They have three home games left, and the talent to be a threat to good teams in the Big Sky tournament, but at this point, it's not clear if they care enough on the defensive end to get it done.
Any other thoughts from Saturday or on the Big Sky in general?
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Northern Arizona 73, Eastern Washington 69
Montana 74, Weber State 63
Sacramento State 74, North Dakota 66
Portland State 91, Northern Colorado 75
Southern Utah 79, Idaho 77 (OT)
Montana State 67, Idaho State 53
Some notes and observations:
- Idaho is an interesting team, because they have shown they can beat anyone in the Big Sky, but they can also look so flat at times. They led Southern Utah by 10 midway through the first half, and led by three at the break. Then they came out lifeless in the second half, and trailed by 10 with about five minutes to go. They turned it on at that point, eventually sending the game to OT, but the Thunderbirds recovered for the key win. It's hard to know what team to expect.
- Southern Utah still has a chance to make the final tournament spot (they are 5-9, while Weber State is 6-9 in eighth place), but either way, they are an interesting team. They play so many guys, and their youth was evident at times (especially down the stretch), but they always play hard, and they are certainly getting better. James McGee is a real keeper at guard, and guys like Trey Kennedy, Juwan Major, John Marshall, and Race Parsons all made key plays. I still don't love their chances to go to the Big Sky tourney this year, but pencil them in for next year.
- Montana doesn't do anything flashy, but they continue to pile up wins, now five in a row. They got off to a slow start, but controlled the game from late in the first half on. They are playing a shell of the Weber State team we thought we'd see, but they have a lot of balance. One key for them is that Mike Weisner has struggled a bit in his senior year, but he is showing good signs the last couple of games. Earlier this month I wrote that the Grizzlies are a contender, and it is more true than I even expected. They finish up with three road games (including at Idaho and EWU), but they've been playing better than anyone lately. KenPom now has Martin Breunig rated as the best player in the Big Sky so far this season.
- Sac State didn't get any style points for their win over UND, but at this point in the year, it's all about winning. Cody Demps seems to get better every game - after putting up a stat line of 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists, he threw up a 9:0 assist to turnover ratio on Saturday. Mikh McKinney and Dylan Garrity get a ton of credit, and rightfully so, but Demps is one of the most improved guys in the Big Sky. He is a great glue guy.
- The loss dropped North Dakota to 4-11. Two of their final three games are at home, but it's probably safe to count them out. Ditto for Idaho State, who dropped to 3-12 with a loss to Montana State. Speaking of the Bobcats, it's almost definitely too little too late, but they have won three of four, and are showing some fight. Their schedule is brutal down the stretch (and they would have to run the table), but they are showing the potential of what they can be under Brian Fish.
- Tyler Harvey has had a nightmare three games since returning from his thigh injury, adding a 6/19 stat line on Saturday. I have nothing to suggest it's anything but a standard shooting slump (he played all 40 on Saturday, so I don't think health is an issue), but hopefully he gets back on track. The Eagles need him.
- I wrote about NAU in December and how they are a good team, and they have done a good job of making me look somewhat prescient lately, At 10-4, they have won 7 of 8, and they are still in the race for the title. We know about their defense (they are second in the Big Sky behind Montana), but the offense has come alive a bit more during their hot stretch. On Saturday, they beat EWU even though Quinton Upshur was held to four points. Their big men have been playing well lately, Aaseem Dixon is shooting the ball well, and Kris Yanku is doing a bit of everything for them. They are a very solid team.
- Last, Portland State ran all over Northern Colorado, and now own the fifth seed. They won 91-75, thanks to 51 second half points. Plus, they did it without Braxton Tucker, who left the game early with an injury. Everything that you can possibly do well offensively, they did - from shooting the ball well, getting good shots (sometimes it looked like a layup line), rebounding, and taking care of the ball. It was an all-around offensive effort.
- Northern Colorado is in freefall mode with now, as they've lost four straight games, and now rank 348 out of 351 teams in KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings. It is somewhat mirroring last year, where a solid start was undone when they stopped playing any semblance of defense midway through the year. They have three home games left, and the talent to be a threat to good teams in the Big Sky tournament, but at this point, it's not clear if they care enough on the defensive end to get it done.
Any other thoughts from Saturday or on the Big Sky in general?
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Friday, February 20, 2015
Thursday Recap - Two Things We Learned
We had six games last night, and there were not a lot of surprises. Unlike the craziness of last week's games, all of the higher ranked teams won, creating a little more clarity in the Big Sky picture. Here are the two things it seems we can be more certain of as we approach the stretch run.
1) The top four seeds identities are more or less set
Now, we don't know the order that they will be in, but I think we can be pretty confident in surmising that the current four teams at the top of the Big Sky, will be the four teams in the top at the end of the year. Here are the standings as of today:
Eastern Washington 11-2
Sacramento State 11-3
Montana 11-3
Northern Arizona 9-4
With the way that EWU has been playing lately, it's safe to say that the race for the top seed is wide open (though they are still the favorite for now). Lately, Montana has been playing every bit as good as the Eagles, and the Hornets always loom with their elite guard play. The race should be very good down the stretch.
Behind these four, it's conceivable that any of Idaho, Northern Colorado, or Portland State could jump in the fray... but with each having at least seven losses, it's unlikely.
2) Weber State has come close to locking down a tournament spot
Heading into last night, things were wide open. If Montana State had beaten Weber State, and North Dakota and Southern Utah won their games, there would have been three teams with five losses, and then the Bobcats right behind at four wins. (ISU could have joined the conversation too if they had beaten Montana).
Instead, everything that could have gone right for Weber State. They held on to beat MSU. Then, EWU held off SUU. PSU controlled the game to take down North Dakota. Montana took down Idaho State.
In all, Weber State is now in eighth at 6-8, while the Thunderbirds fall to 4-9. North Dakota has 4 wins, but at 10 losses and a tough schedule, their hopes appear bleak. Southern Utah has the best chance to catch the Wildcats, but they are now two wins behind. It was a good night for Weber State.
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1) The top four seeds identities are more or less set
Now, we don't know the order that they will be in, but I think we can be pretty confident in surmising that the current four teams at the top of the Big Sky, will be the four teams in the top at the end of the year. Here are the standings as of today:
Eastern Washington 11-2
Sacramento State 11-3
Montana 11-3
Northern Arizona 9-4
With the way that EWU has been playing lately, it's safe to say that the race for the top seed is wide open (though they are still the favorite for now). Lately, Montana has been playing every bit as good as the Eagles, and the Hornets always loom with their elite guard play. The race should be very good down the stretch.
Behind these four, it's conceivable that any of Idaho, Northern Colorado, or Portland State could jump in the fray... but with each having at least seven losses, it's unlikely.
2) Weber State has come close to locking down a tournament spot
Heading into last night, things were wide open. If Montana State had beaten Weber State, and North Dakota and Southern Utah won their games, there would have been three teams with five losses, and then the Bobcats right behind at four wins. (ISU could have joined the conversation too if they had beaten Montana).
Instead, everything that could have gone right for Weber State. They held on to beat MSU. Then, EWU held off SUU. PSU controlled the game to take down North Dakota. Montana took down Idaho State.
In all, Weber State is now in eighth at 6-8, while the Thunderbirds fall to 4-9. North Dakota has 4 wins, but at 10 losses and a tough schedule, their hopes appear bleak. Southern Utah has the best chance to catch the Wildcats, but they are now two wins behind. It was a good night for Weber State.
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
Big Sky's Best Newcomers
As is often the case, a list of the best newcomers in the Big Sky is riddled with transfers and junior college guys rather than freshman, and that is the case (for the most part) here. While a couple of the freshmen deserve inclusion here (and if you want more talk about the freshmen, check here), a lot of this list will be guys that came into the Big Sky with some experience already.
By my count, there are four guys that really deserve consideration to be the Newcomer of the Year. In no particular order, here they are:
- Martin Breunig (Montana) - Before the year, I was told Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and with Joel Bolomboy's numbers down a bit, and Venky Jois battling injury problems, that has proven prophetic. Breunig has been a scorer in the post, shooting nearly 60% on two-pointers, on a lot of attempts. He has also been beastly on the boards, with a 9.9 OR% and 19.9 DR%, both top 7 numbers in the Big Sky. The only thing that has held him back is a propensity to get into foul trouble. However, when he's on the court, he's outstanding. At this point, he is certainly the frontrunner for the award.
- Cameron Michael (Northern Colorado) - UNC coaches told me how excited they were when Michael decided to transfer, and he has been everything they could have hoped for in his first year in Greeley. He has been a great shooter, at over 41% from downtown. He is not just a shooter though, as he takes almost five shots a game inside the arc, where he is also efficient. He takes care of the ball as well. He is just a really good player for them.
- Tiegbe Bamba (Portland State) - His long awaited debut for the Vikings was worth the weight, as he has been a steady frontcourt presence for them this season. On two-pointers, he is shooting almost 63% (he has taken 27 threes, but at least made 9 of them), and he's been a solid rebounder on both ends of the court. He turns it over a little more than you'd like for a big man, but he has helped bring stability to the frontcourt which the Viks didn't have last year.
- Braxton Tucker (Portland State) - The other new equation in the PSU front line is Tucker, who has been very solid as well. Like Bamba, he is an efficient scorer, who has been better at creating his own shot than Bamba has. He is very solid on the offensive glass, sporting a top 10 offensive rebound rate in the conference.
Honorable Mention:
- Ben Wilson (Idaho State) - Wilson is getting a lot of minutes for the Bengals, and can do some nice things. At 6'6'', he has the length to be disruptive in the zone defense, especially up top. He has also been a relatively solid playmaker, with an Assist Rate over 21%. He's not really a scorer, and he's not a natural PG, but has played there most of the year out of necessity.
- Estan Tyler (North Dakota) - Tyler is talented, and his role seems to have grown as the year has gone on. Still, he's been a little inefficient shooting the ball, and turns it over more than you'd like. He's a good shooter, and his numbers are probably hampered a little bit by a lack of a lot of other offensive options for defenses to focus on.
- Bogdan Bliznyuk (Eastern Washington) - Bliznyuk has slowed a little the past week, but he is still a diverse scorer that will be a big factor in EWU's tournament run. The Eagles have a future offensive star on their hands, and a guy that could win a scoring title in the conference at some point.
- Arkadiy Mkrtchyan (Idaho) - You don't always hear a lot about Ark, but he's a really good player for them that does a lot of little things. He doesn't shoot a lot, but he's efficient when he does. He's also a really good rebounder on both ends, and above average at drawing fouls. He could be a future star for the Vandals.
Thoughts? Anyone I missed? Who is the best among the group?
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By my count, there are four guys that really deserve consideration to be the Newcomer of the Year. In no particular order, here they are:
- Martin Breunig (Montana) - Before the year, I was told Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and with Joel Bolomboy's numbers down a bit, and Venky Jois battling injury problems, that has proven prophetic. Breunig has been a scorer in the post, shooting nearly 60% on two-pointers, on a lot of attempts. He has also been beastly on the boards, with a 9.9 OR% and 19.9 DR%, both top 7 numbers in the Big Sky. The only thing that has held him back is a propensity to get into foul trouble. However, when he's on the court, he's outstanding. At this point, he is certainly the frontrunner for the award.
- Cameron Michael (Northern Colorado) - UNC coaches told me how excited they were when Michael decided to transfer, and he has been everything they could have hoped for in his first year in Greeley. He has been a great shooter, at over 41% from downtown. He is not just a shooter though, as he takes almost five shots a game inside the arc, where he is also efficient. He takes care of the ball as well. He is just a really good player for them.
- Tiegbe Bamba (Portland State) - His long awaited debut for the Vikings was worth the weight, as he has been a steady frontcourt presence for them this season. On two-pointers, he is shooting almost 63% (he has taken 27 threes, but at least made 9 of them), and he's been a solid rebounder on both ends of the court. He turns it over a little more than you'd like for a big man, but he has helped bring stability to the frontcourt which the Viks didn't have last year.
- Braxton Tucker (Portland State) - The other new equation in the PSU front line is Tucker, who has been very solid as well. Like Bamba, he is an efficient scorer, who has been better at creating his own shot than Bamba has. He is very solid on the offensive glass, sporting a top 10 offensive rebound rate in the conference.
Honorable Mention:
- Ben Wilson (Idaho State) - Wilson is getting a lot of minutes for the Bengals, and can do some nice things. At 6'6'', he has the length to be disruptive in the zone defense, especially up top. He has also been a relatively solid playmaker, with an Assist Rate over 21%. He's not really a scorer, and he's not a natural PG, but has played there most of the year out of necessity.
- Estan Tyler (North Dakota) - Tyler is talented, and his role seems to have grown as the year has gone on. Still, he's been a little inefficient shooting the ball, and turns it over more than you'd like. He's a good shooter, and his numbers are probably hampered a little bit by a lack of a lot of other offensive options for defenses to focus on.
- Bogdan Bliznyuk (Eastern Washington) - Bliznyuk has slowed a little the past week, but he is still a diverse scorer that will be a big factor in EWU's tournament run. The Eagles have a future offensive star on their hands, and a guy that could win a scoring title in the conference at some point.
- Arkadiy Mkrtchyan (Idaho) - You don't always hear a lot about Ark, but he's a really good player for them that does a lot of little things. He doesn't shoot a lot, but he's efficient when he does. He's also a really good rebounder on both ends, and above average at drawing fouls. He could be a future star for the Vandals.
Thoughts? Anyone I missed? Who is the best among the group?
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Monday, February 16, 2015
Big Sky Weekend Storylines
Saturday night was another wild night in the Big Sky, so let's get to the storylines.
Eastern Washington and Sacramento State Lose
On Thursday, all of the bottom three teams won their games, so the only logical way to follow that up was to have the league's top two teams lose!
Sacramento State's loss to Idaho was fairly predictable, given that the game was in Moscow, and Idaho almost beat the Hornets earlier this year, and almost beat EWU twice. The Hornets actually led the game by three with 8:28 left, but the Vandals outsocred them 21-7 the rest of the way. Sac State never got on track offensively, shooting just 5/23 from downtown and attempting only 8 free throws. Meanwhile, Idaho was a scorching 23/34 on two-pointers, making up for the fact that they didn't hit from deep and struggled at the foul line. The loss moves the Hornets into a tie with Montana at 10-3, while Idaho is 6-6 and back to looking like a team that is a tournament darkhorse.
Eastern Washington's loss to Portland State was a little more confounding, even accounting for the fact that Venky Jois missed the game. The Eagles got off to a hot start, leading 24-12 over midway through the first half, but a big run early in the second half for PSU gave them the lead and eventually the win. The Eagles can be so reliant on the three-point shot (especially when Jois isn't playing), and that did them in here, as they were 7/25 from deep (Tyler Harvey was just 2/12). The Vikings got big performances by guys like Braxton Tucker and DaShaun Wiggins, moving the Vikings to 6-7, and a spot where they should probably feel comfortable in the Big Sky race. EWU got a reprieve due to the Sac State loss, but a 2-game cushion would have been awfully nice for a team that has struggled with depth and injuries.
The Second Tier is Solidified
For a while, Northern Colorado looked like they could crash the party of the top four teams, but that seems unlikely today. They lost a heartbreaker in triple OT to Montana, though there was a little bit of controversy with the final call of the game. The Bears never led in regulation (and trailed by as many as 15), but then led by 3 with 12 seconds left in double OT, before Montana got three attempts to tie it, as Brandon Gfeller hit the game-tying shot at the buzzer to send it to triple OT.
It's a tough homestand for the Bears, who came into it at 7-4 with an eye on third place, and leave at 7-6. Against Montana, they did some things well though, battling back from a big deficit, and holding the Grizzlies to 1.08 PPP. The Grizzlies will surely take it as well - Greeley is always a tough place to go into and get a win, and their win coupled with Sac State's loss puts them back into the Big Sky picture at 10-3.
Northern Arizona struggled in a loss to Idaho State Thursday, but they bounced back and added to Weber State's misery, handing the Wildcats another home loss. It was not a very pretty game - NAU led 24-15 at the half, but the Jacks will take a big road win. Kris Yanku and Quinton Upshur led the way 37 points in the 61-54 win, which moves the Jacks to 8-4 in the Big Sky.With four home games left, a run for a top 3 spot is certainly not out of the question.
Weber State and Southern Utah Will Battle For Final Tourney Spot
We can almost stick a fork in North Dakota, after a 80-78 home loss to Montana State drops them to 4-9 in the Big Sky. With their remaining schedule, their tourney hopes appear to be slim. (Meanwhile, let's sit back and gives congrats to the Bobcats... who entered a roadtrip at 1-10 and played just as hard as if they were competing for a conference title, winning both games. Great job by them,)
We talked briefly about 5-8 Weber State, but not the worst part - starting guard Jeremy Senglin has a broken jaw and will miss four weeks. They struggled to generate offense even with him, and they showed how big of a struggle things will be when they scored just 0.84 PPP on Saturday. Joel Bolomboy was a star (23 and 15), but the Wildcats need Richaud Gittens to step up, and he struggled badly on Saturday night. We might see Hayden Hunter in the lineup at some point, as the freshman has showed some ability to create shots for others, but it's not clear he's ready to contribute in that big of a role.
For the first time, their spot in the tournament appears tenuous in part because Southern Utah was able to go and get another road win, beating Idaho State 71-67 to move to 4-9. The TBirds were 13/23 from downtown, and their shooting continues to put them in ballgames even when they struggle in other areas. They are a game behind Weber State, but they hold the tiebreaker since they beat them twice. They have four home games left (two road), but those four are against EWU, Idaho, Sac State, and Portland State... not exactly an easy slate.
SOMEONE will have to claim the final tournament spot, but at this point, it's hard to say who. We have to give Weber State the edge, simply because they have 5 wins, but they look capable of losing to anyone. SUU and North Dakota are right behind at 4 wins, but they don't have particularly easy schedules or trustworthy resumes. At this point, it looks like 7 wins will probably get you into the tournament, and you may even have a chance with 6. It's pretty ugly at the bottom.
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Eastern Washington and Sacramento State Lose
On Thursday, all of the bottom three teams won their games, so the only logical way to follow that up was to have the league's top two teams lose!
Sacramento State's loss to Idaho was fairly predictable, given that the game was in Moscow, and Idaho almost beat the Hornets earlier this year, and almost beat EWU twice. The Hornets actually led the game by three with 8:28 left, but the Vandals outsocred them 21-7 the rest of the way. Sac State never got on track offensively, shooting just 5/23 from downtown and attempting only 8 free throws. Meanwhile, Idaho was a scorching 23/34 on two-pointers, making up for the fact that they didn't hit from deep and struggled at the foul line. The loss moves the Hornets into a tie with Montana at 10-3, while Idaho is 6-6 and back to looking like a team that is a tournament darkhorse.
Eastern Washington's loss to Portland State was a little more confounding, even accounting for the fact that Venky Jois missed the game. The Eagles got off to a hot start, leading 24-12 over midway through the first half, but a big run early in the second half for PSU gave them the lead and eventually the win. The Eagles can be so reliant on the three-point shot (especially when Jois isn't playing), and that did them in here, as they were 7/25 from deep (Tyler Harvey was just 2/12). The Vikings got big performances by guys like Braxton Tucker and DaShaun Wiggins, moving the Vikings to 6-7, and a spot where they should probably feel comfortable in the Big Sky race. EWU got a reprieve due to the Sac State loss, but a 2-game cushion would have been awfully nice for a team that has struggled with depth and injuries.
The Second Tier is Solidified
For a while, Northern Colorado looked like they could crash the party of the top four teams, but that seems unlikely today. They lost a heartbreaker in triple OT to Montana, though there was a little bit of controversy with the final call of the game. The Bears never led in regulation (and trailed by as many as 15), but then led by 3 with 12 seconds left in double OT, before Montana got three attempts to tie it, as Brandon Gfeller hit the game-tying shot at the buzzer to send it to triple OT.
It's a tough homestand for the Bears, who came into it at 7-4 with an eye on third place, and leave at 7-6. Against Montana, they did some things well though, battling back from a big deficit, and holding the Grizzlies to 1.08 PPP. The Grizzlies will surely take it as well - Greeley is always a tough place to go into and get a win, and their win coupled with Sac State's loss puts them back into the Big Sky picture at 10-3.
Northern Arizona struggled in a loss to Idaho State Thursday, but they bounced back and added to Weber State's misery, handing the Wildcats another home loss. It was not a very pretty game - NAU led 24-15 at the half, but the Jacks will take a big road win. Kris Yanku and Quinton Upshur led the way 37 points in the 61-54 win, which moves the Jacks to 8-4 in the Big Sky.With four home games left, a run for a top 3 spot is certainly not out of the question.
Weber State and Southern Utah Will Battle For Final Tourney Spot
We can almost stick a fork in North Dakota, after a 80-78 home loss to Montana State drops them to 4-9 in the Big Sky. With their remaining schedule, their tourney hopes appear to be slim. (Meanwhile, let's sit back and gives congrats to the Bobcats... who entered a roadtrip at 1-10 and played just as hard as if they were competing for a conference title, winning both games. Great job by them,)
We talked briefly about 5-8 Weber State, but not the worst part - starting guard Jeremy Senglin has a broken jaw and will miss four weeks. They struggled to generate offense even with him, and they showed how big of a struggle things will be when they scored just 0.84 PPP on Saturday. Joel Bolomboy was a star (23 and 15), but the Wildcats need Richaud Gittens to step up, and he struggled badly on Saturday night. We might see Hayden Hunter in the lineup at some point, as the freshman has showed some ability to create shots for others, but it's not clear he's ready to contribute in that big of a role.
For the first time, their spot in the tournament appears tenuous in part because Southern Utah was able to go and get another road win, beating Idaho State 71-67 to move to 4-9. The TBirds were 13/23 from downtown, and their shooting continues to put them in ballgames even when they struggle in other areas. They are a game behind Weber State, but they hold the tiebreaker since they beat them twice. They have four home games left (two road), but those four are against EWU, Idaho, Sac State, and Portland State... not exactly an easy slate.
SOMEONE will have to claim the final tournament spot, but at this point, it's hard to say who. We have to give Weber State the edge, simply because they have 5 wins, but they look capable of losing to anyone. SUU and North Dakota are right behind at 4 wins, but they don't have particularly easy schedules or trustworthy resumes. At this point, it looks like 7 wins will probably get you into the tournament, and you may even have a chance with 6. It's pretty ugly at the bottom.
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Friday, February 13, 2015
A Wonky Big Sky Thursday Night
First, the good news... my rec league basketball team took home the title last night! Haha. With that out of the way, let's take a look at the Big Sky.
First, just a quick note on the two games that went more or less according to what would be expected. Connor Hill went 8/9 from downtown as Idaho overwhelmed Portland State for the 87-76 home win. The Vandals are now 5-6 and in good shape.
The other was Montana getting a tight road win over North Dakota. It's always tough to win in Grand Forks, and so Montana having to grind out a close win is not a surprise. The Grizzlies are solidly in third at 9-3, while UND is 4-8, but only a game out of the conference tournament final spot.
The rest of the games featured Eastern Washington beating Sacramento State in a bit of a different style of game than expected, and then the bottom three teams all winning!
We expected a high scoring game between the Eagles and Hornets, but that's not what happened. The first surprise was that Tyler Harvey was unable to play, as he was reported to be "probable" earlier in the day. Without him, the Eagles led a defensive battle, eventually going up 58-42 with 7:01 to play, with the game looking well in hand. The Hornets have trailed late several times this year (as I've documented in the past), but this time, they weren't quite able to overcome. They went on a 19-6 run over those last seven minutes, but the Eagles were able to hang on for dear life, and move to 10-1 and take the Big Sky lead.
In the first meeting, the Hornets got everything inside the paint, shooting 24/36 there. This time, they were just 14/36 from two-point range, and the Eagles blocked 13 shots, including 5 from reserve forward Garrett Moon. The Eagles didn't play particularly well offensively - they turned it over an uncharacteristic 17 times, and couldn't get anything inside - but were saved by shooting 12/23 from downtown. Still, without their best player, the Eagles will take it.
[Sidenote: Here is the comment that Jim Hayford had about Harvey after the game, and it seems like the right strategy]
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One of the shockers was seeing Southern Utah go into Ogden and beat Weber State, a sentence that would have been unthinkable before the season. The Wildcats were ice cold offensively, as the TBirds held them to 0.82 PPP. The Wildcats were 11/32 inside the arc, and 5/26 behind it. Joel Bolomboy was held to just two points. They played more than well enough defensively to win, but the answers on offense are few and far between.
Southern Utah's win at least keeps their hopes alive for the Big Sky tournament... At 3-8, they are 1.5 games out of the final spot. At the very least, it's another positive experience for a young team - their first road Big Sky conference win in over two calendar years. The odds are still long for this year, but they are building a team that will be deep and experienced next season.
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The other shocker in terms of a team going on the road and winning was Montana State going into Greeley and beating Northern Colorado, 90-87. The Bears are always tough to beat at home, and this year, the Bobcats have had trouble beating anyone, anywhere. The MSU got off to a great start, and led by as many as 19 (37-18) late in the first half. UNC crawled back to cut the lead to 40-34 at the break, but the Bobcats just never let their foot off the gas pedal.
Mike Dison led the way with 23 points (on 10/15 FG), while Stephen Holm had 18, and Marcus Colbert had 13. Five other guys had at least six points. As a team, the Bobcats were 22/38 inside the arc, shot 24 free throws, and dominated the offensive glass (in fairness, UNC grabbed plenty of offensive boards themselves).
It's a missed opportunity for the Bears... anytime you score 87 points on 1.24 PPP at home, you should win that game. The fact that it came against the last place Bobcats will make it even harder to swallow. In the big picture, it doesn't really change anything... We already knew MSU was a tough team to play because they play hard, and have nothing to lose. The Bears are still 7-5, and I don't think they'll be in danger of missing the Big Sky tournament. But if they drop a couple more games like this, it could have implications later on.
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Last, Idaho State let out all of their offensive frustrations on Northern Arizona, getting an 80-66 home win over the third place Jacks. ISU was led by Chris Hansen, who was 2/10 on two point shots, and still somehow finished with 24 points. As a team, the Bengals took smart shots, took care of the basketball, and made the looks they did get.
The Lumberjacks were just 8/29 from downtown, as Aaseem Dixon and Quinton Upshur combined to shoot 5/19 from deep. Kris Yanku had 7 turnovers. They usually need two of those three guys to be on their game (when all three are, they can beat anyone), and in this one, they all struggled a bit. NAU is still solidly in fourth at 7-4, but it's still a tough game to drop.
However, we have to be happy for the Bengals and Bill Evans, who get some good feelings after what has been a long season.
Anything else I missed?
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First, just a quick note on the two games that went more or less according to what would be expected. Connor Hill went 8/9 from downtown as Idaho overwhelmed Portland State for the 87-76 home win. The Vandals are now 5-6 and in good shape.
The other was Montana getting a tight road win over North Dakota. It's always tough to win in Grand Forks, and so Montana having to grind out a close win is not a surprise. The Grizzlies are solidly in third at 9-3, while UND is 4-8, but only a game out of the conference tournament final spot.
The rest of the games featured Eastern Washington beating Sacramento State in a bit of a different style of game than expected, and then the bottom three teams all winning!
We expected a high scoring game between the Eagles and Hornets, but that's not what happened. The first surprise was that Tyler Harvey was unable to play, as he was reported to be "probable" earlier in the day. Without him, the Eagles led a defensive battle, eventually going up 58-42 with 7:01 to play, with the game looking well in hand. The Hornets have trailed late several times this year (as I've documented in the past), but this time, they weren't quite able to overcome. They went on a 19-6 run over those last seven minutes, but the Eagles were able to hang on for dear life, and move to 10-1 and take the Big Sky lead.
In the first meeting, the Hornets got everything inside the paint, shooting 24/36 there. This time, they were just 14/36 from two-point range, and the Eagles blocked 13 shots, including 5 from reserve forward Garrett Moon. The Eagles didn't play particularly well offensively - they turned it over an uncharacteristic 17 times, and couldn't get anything inside - but were saved by shooting 12/23 from downtown. Still, without their best player, the Eagles will take it.
[Sidenote: Here is the comment that Jim Hayford had about Harvey after the game, and it seems like the right strategy]
“He probably could have gone tonight, but when you are in the Big Sky you need to be your best in the Big Sky Tournament. I don’t want this injury to get aggravated, so it is something he has taken with him the whole month. He is like, ‘hey coach I am playing Saturday’. So we will see how he responds after yesterday’s practice, but I am going to err on the side of patience with such a special player. When we really need him is if we are fortunate enough to play those three games in March.”Hopefully he will be back soon, especially because Sir Washington is done for the year after suffering a knee injury. We wish him a speedy and full recovery.
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One of the shockers was seeing Southern Utah go into Ogden and beat Weber State, a sentence that would have been unthinkable before the season. The Wildcats were ice cold offensively, as the TBirds held them to 0.82 PPP. The Wildcats were 11/32 inside the arc, and 5/26 behind it. Joel Bolomboy was held to just two points. They played more than well enough defensively to win, but the answers on offense are few and far between.
Southern Utah's win at least keeps their hopes alive for the Big Sky tournament... At 3-8, they are 1.5 games out of the final spot. At the very least, it's another positive experience for a young team - their first road Big Sky conference win in over two calendar years. The odds are still long for this year, but they are building a team that will be deep and experienced next season.
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The other shocker in terms of a team going on the road and winning was Montana State going into Greeley and beating Northern Colorado, 90-87. The Bears are always tough to beat at home, and this year, the Bobcats have had trouble beating anyone, anywhere. The MSU got off to a great start, and led by as many as 19 (37-18) late in the first half. UNC crawled back to cut the lead to 40-34 at the break, but the Bobcats just never let their foot off the gas pedal.
Mike Dison led the way with 23 points (on 10/15 FG), while Stephen Holm had 18, and Marcus Colbert had 13. Five other guys had at least six points. As a team, the Bobcats were 22/38 inside the arc, shot 24 free throws, and dominated the offensive glass (in fairness, UNC grabbed plenty of offensive boards themselves).
It's a missed opportunity for the Bears... anytime you score 87 points on 1.24 PPP at home, you should win that game. The fact that it came against the last place Bobcats will make it even harder to swallow. In the big picture, it doesn't really change anything... We already knew MSU was a tough team to play because they play hard, and have nothing to lose. The Bears are still 7-5, and I don't think they'll be in danger of missing the Big Sky tournament. But if they drop a couple more games like this, it could have implications later on.
-----
Last, Idaho State let out all of their offensive frustrations on Northern Arizona, getting an 80-66 home win over the third place Jacks. ISU was led by Chris Hansen, who was 2/10 on two point shots, and still somehow finished with 24 points. As a team, the Bengals took smart shots, took care of the basketball, and made the looks they did get.
The Lumberjacks were just 8/29 from downtown, as Aaseem Dixon and Quinton Upshur combined to shoot 5/19 from deep. Kris Yanku had 7 turnovers. They usually need two of those three guys to be on their game (when all three are, they can beat anyone), and in this one, they all struggled a bit. NAU is still solidly in fourth at 7-4, but it's still a tough game to drop.
However, we have to be happy for the Bengals and Bill Evans, who get some good feelings after what has been a long season.
Anything else I missed?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Monday, February 9, 2015
Big Sky Power Rankings 2/9/15
Let's take a quick snapshot of the Big Sky as of today... where things are sure to change in an instant, as always!
1. Eastern Washington (9-1) - Beating Montana on the road without Tyler Harvey earns them the top spot for me this week, as they led the Grizzlies by as many as nine late, winning 75-69. Montana's D has been solid, but the Eagles scored 1.21 PPP against them, thanks to a great day from Drew Brandon (27 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists). Saturday's tilt against MSU was a little more nerve-wracking, as they trailed the Bobcats by eight early in the second half, but they managed to come back and win by 10. They host Sac State on Thursday in the biggest Big Sky game of the year (I'll be previewing it in depth more as the week goes on), and they really need Harvey back.
2. Sacramento State (10-1) - If they beat EWU this Thursday, I promise you Hornets fans that they will be #1 next week. Their win Saturday night against PSU was a little closer than many would have expected, especially when the Hornets were up 9 at the half. PSU cut the lead to as little as two, and Sac State eventually won by 4. The Hornets are now 6-0 in Big Sky games decided by five points or less. This week will show a lot about them - a roadtrip to take on EWU and then Idaho is arguably the toughest in the Big Sky. If they can at least get a split, that'd probably be a good result.
3. Montana (8-3) - Montana got their chance to show they'll be a contender for the regular season title, and fell flat losing a home game to EWU. They responded well, however, holding Idaho to 0.90 PPP, forcing 17 turnovers in the process. Montana continues to hound teams defensively, and have long since showed that their solid defensive performances once Big Sky play started were not a fluke. They're the best defensive team in the conference, which is the biggest reason they're a legit tournament threat..
4. Northern Arizona (7-3) - I had been concerned earlier in the year about their offense, but those concerns have been assuaged somewhat. as they continue to put together impressive performances. While the biggest factor in that is probably due to Quinton Upshur looking like himself against over the past give games, I wanted to write a few words on Kris Yanku. He has been outstanding in all phases recently, really taking over the team. During their four game win streak, he's putting up 16 PPG, 7 APG, 6.5 RPG, and has only turned it over four times. You might not know it yet, but he's a star in the Big Sky, and seems to be getting better and better.
5. Northern Colorado (7-4) - The Bears did what they needed to do, getting a split on their last roadtrip. Now they sit at 7-4 with 5 home games left, so they're in a great spot. Though they have a balanced team, they seem to go as the backcourt duo of Cam Michael and Tevin Svihovec go. They complement each other well, as Michael is an excellent outside shooter, while Svihovec does his best work slashing and getting to the line. They will be a tough out because those two guys are tough to guard.
6. Weber State (5-6) - You can put 6-7-8 in any order, and I wouldn't argue. The Wildcats won their long game last week, beating ISU on the road by seven. While Jeremy Senglin can be inconsistent at times, his ceiling is high, as shown by his scoring 30 points on just eight field goal attempts on Saturday (he was 14/15 from the line).He gives them that elite guard talent that can sometimes be a wildcard come tournament time.
7. Portland State (5-6) - They almost got the big upset win over the Hornets, but couldn't quite get over the top in the second half. One subplot has been the minutes of Tim Douglas... A year ago, he led the team in minutes. This year, his play on the court (taken as a whole) has been fairly similar to last year - he is a an average outside shooter, poor inside, pokes away a few steals, and doesn't turn it over a ton. But he played 15 minutes Saturday, and has played less than 20 in 5 of the last 6. Gobbling up his minutes is freshman Iziahiah Sweeney. Something to watch for the Vikings going forward.
8. Idaho (4-6) - All things considered, it wasn't a real impressive week for the Vandals. They trailed MSU by 11 early in the second half (before winning by 9), and lost by 14 to Montana. It's clear their ceiling is higher than many other teams (they lost their three games against EWU and Sac State by 9 points total), but their floor is a lot lower than the mid-tier teams as well. This week's home games against PSU and Sac State will tell us a lot... they have the talent to win both and be a solid 6-6, or lose both and be sweating things at 4-8. I'm curious to see which Idaho team shows up, and I'm sure their fans are as well.
9. North Dakota (4-7) - Their road win over SUU Thursday was big, as it at least keeps them alive and in the discussion. This week they host the Montana schools, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that they'll be 6-7 heading into the final few weeks. Estan Tyler has become their workhorse - as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Another name to watch is Carson Shanks, a guy who has really been coming. They are absolutely still in the race for a tournament spot, but they don't have a ton of margin for error.
10. Southern Utah (2-8) - When SUU won two straight Big Sky games to go to 2-3, they could at least dream of a conference tournament spot. Five losses later (the last three at home), and it appears it was just that - a dream. They are a year away, but certainly there is hope for the future. Their bench still plays more minutes than anyone else's in the country, and they are still very inexperienced, with no seniors being a really key part of the core. It would be nice to get a few more wins to end the year to give them some momentum into the offseason, but the schedule won't be easy - arguably they will be the underdog in all of their remaining games.
11. Idaho State (2-9) - It doesn't look like the Bengals year. At 2-9, they are all but eliminated from conference tournament contention. The seven guys playing the most minutes for them are upperclassmen (five seniors, two juniors), which doesn't leave a ton of hope that next year will be better. I like Bill Evans as a coach, and feel he is very solid in terms of game-planning, but they just haven't had the talent to compete.
12. Montana State (1-10) - They have to feel like they let some games slip through the cracks... They led Idaho by 11 early in the second half Thursday, and then EWU by 8 in the second half Saturday, but lost both games by a combined 19 points. They at least showed they are a feisty club that won't lie down for any games. They hit you with a barrage of threes - they attempted 37 against Idaho, and 29 against EWU. Wins will be hard to come by, but they're starting to form an identity for the future.
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1. Eastern Washington (9-1) - Beating Montana on the road without Tyler Harvey earns them the top spot for me this week, as they led the Grizzlies by as many as nine late, winning 75-69. Montana's D has been solid, but the Eagles scored 1.21 PPP against them, thanks to a great day from Drew Brandon (27 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists). Saturday's tilt against MSU was a little more nerve-wracking, as they trailed the Bobcats by eight early in the second half, but they managed to come back and win by 10. They host Sac State on Thursday in the biggest Big Sky game of the year (I'll be previewing it in depth more as the week goes on), and they really need Harvey back.
2. Sacramento State (10-1) - If they beat EWU this Thursday, I promise you Hornets fans that they will be #1 next week. Their win Saturday night against PSU was a little closer than many would have expected, especially when the Hornets were up 9 at the half. PSU cut the lead to as little as two, and Sac State eventually won by 4. The Hornets are now 6-0 in Big Sky games decided by five points or less. This week will show a lot about them - a roadtrip to take on EWU and then Idaho is arguably the toughest in the Big Sky. If they can at least get a split, that'd probably be a good result.
3. Montana (8-3) - Montana got their chance to show they'll be a contender for the regular season title, and fell flat losing a home game to EWU. They responded well, however, holding Idaho to 0.90 PPP, forcing 17 turnovers in the process. Montana continues to hound teams defensively, and have long since showed that their solid defensive performances once Big Sky play started were not a fluke. They're the best defensive team in the conference, which is the biggest reason they're a legit tournament threat..
4. Northern Arizona (7-3) - I had been concerned earlier in the year about their offense, but those concerns have been assuaged somewhat. as they continue to put together impressive performances. While the biggest factor in that is probably due to Quinton Upshur looking like himself against over the past give games, I wanted to write a few words on Kris Yanku. He has been outstanding in all phases recently, really taking over the team. During their four game win streak, he's putting up 16 PPG, 7 APG, 6.5 RPG, and has only turned it over four times. You might not know it yet, but he's a star in the Big Sky, and seems to be getting better and better.
5. Northern Colorado (7-4) - The Bears did what they needed to do, getting a split on their last roadtrip. Now they sit at 7-4 with 5 home games left, so they're in a great spot. Though they have a balanced team, they seem to go as the backcourt duo of Cam Michael and Tevin Svihovec go. They complement each other well, as Michael is an excellent outside shooter, while Svihovec does his best work slashing and getting to the line. They will be a tough out because those two guys are tough to guard.
6. Weber State (5-6) - You can put 6-7-8 in any order, and I wouldn't argue. The Wildcats won their long game last week, beating ISU on the road by seven. While Jeremy Senglin can be inconsistent at times, his ceiling is high, as shown by his scoring 30 points on just eight field goal attempts on Saturday (he was 14/15 from the line).He gives them that elite guard talent that can sometimes be a wildcard come tournament time.
7. Portland State (5-6) - They almost got the big upset win over the Hornets, but couldn't quite get over the top in the second half. One subplot has been the minutes of Tim Douglas... A year ago, he led the team in minutes. This year, his play on the court (taken as a whole) has been fairly similar to last year - he is a an average outside shooter, poor inside, pokes away a few steals, and doesn't turn it over a ton. But he played 15 minutes Saturday, and has played less than 20 in 5 of the last 6. Gobbling up his minutes is freshman Iziahiah Sweeney. Something to watch for the Vikings going forward.
8. Idaho (4-6) - All things considered, it wasn't a real impressive week for the Vandals. They trailed MSU by 11 early in the second half (before winning by 9), and lost by 14 to Montana. It's clear their ceiling is higher than many other teams (they lost their three games against EWU and Sac State by 9 points total), but their floor is a lot lower than the mid-tier teams as well. This week's home games against PSU and Sac State will tell us a lot... they have the talent to win both and be a solid 6-6, or lose both and be sweating things at 4-8. I'm curious to see which Idaho team shows up, and I'm sure their fans are as well.
9. North Dakota (4-7) - Their road win over SUU Thursday was big, as it at least keeps them alive and in the discussion. This week they host the Montana schools, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that they'll be 6-7 heading into the final few weeks. Estan Tyler has become their workhorse - as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Another name to watch is Carson Shanks, a guy who has really been coming. They are absolutely still in the race for a tournament spot, but they don't have a ton of margin for error.
10. Southern Utah (2-8) - When SUU won two straight Big Sky games to go to 2-3, they could at least dream of a conference tournament spot. Five losses later (the last three at home), and it appears it was just that - a dream. They are a year away, but certainly there is hope for the future. Their bench still plays more minutes than anyone else's in the country, and they are still very inexperienced, with no seniors being a really key part of the core. It would be nice to get a few more wins to end the year to give them some momentum into the offseason, but the schedule won't be easy - arguably they will be the underdog in all of their remaining games.
11. Idaho State (2-9) - It doesn't look like the Bengals year. At 2-9, they are all but eliminated from conference tournament contention. The seven guys playing the most minutes for them are upperclassmen (five seniors, two juniors), which doesn't leave a ton of hope that next year will be better. I like Bill Evans as a coach, and feel he is very solid in terms of game-planning, but they just haven't had the talent to compete.
12. Montana State (1-10) - They have to feel like they let some games slip through the cracks... They led Idaho by 11 early in the second half Thursday, and then EWU by 8 in the second half Saturday, but lost both games by a combined 19 points. They at least showed they are a feisty club that won't lie down for any games. They hit you with a barrage of threes - they attempted 37 against Idaho, and 29 against EWU. Wins will be hard to come by, but they're starting to form an identity for the future.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
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