Here is a list of the transfers in and out of the Big Sky, as far as I can tell, and as of today (April 17).
Transfers In:
- Geremy McKay - Eastern Washington (PF from Albany)
- Chaz Glotta - Northern Colorado (SG from Southern Illinois)
- Dallas Anglin - Northern Colorado (PG from Southern Miss)
Transfers Out:
- Ognjen Miljkovic (Eastern Washington)
- Sekou Wiggs (Idaho)
- Marcus Bradley (Idaho State)
- Ian Fox (Idaho State) - to Long Beach College (midseason transfer)
- Terrell Brown (Montana State)
- Bradley Fisher (Montana State)
- Joey Frenchwood (Montana State)
- Daniel Nwosu (Montana)
- Kraig Shields (North Dakota)
- Josiah Coleman (North Dakota)
- Geoff Frid (Northern Arizona)
- Chris Miller (Northern Arizona) (midseason transfer)
- Drew Bender (Northern Colorado)
- Riak Bol (Northern Colorado)
- Dorian Cason (Portland State)
- Braxton Tucker (Portland State)
- Iziahiah Sweeney (Portland State)
- Austin Waddoups (Southern Utah) - to Dixie State
- Chris Golden (Weber State)
- Jaylen Johnson-Coston (Weber State)
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Showing posts with label Montana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Montana. Show all posts
Friday, April 17, 2015
Monday, April 13, 2015
Early 2015-16 Big Sky Rankings
OK, so we don't yet know who might be leaving their current programs, and recruiting classes aren't fully finalized in some cases... but that doesn't mean it's too early for some Big Sky rankings for next season!
Let me state the obvious caveat - everything is conjecture at this point. I would love to hear the dissenting opinions, because next year should be a fun year in the Big Sky, as always. Please let me know where you think I am right or wrong... I don't really have anything to base this off of except my own thoughts and opinions, so I don't know if my views are common or not.
The Big Sky was very deep this season, though there was no dominant team. You could see this in the conference tournament, where even the number eight seed Weber State had a legit shot at the title. There was a lot of balance this year. Next season, there still doesn't seem to be a dominant team (more on that in the previews), but there also doesn't seem to be quite the depth that there was this season, at least at first glance.
To be honest, I had a really difficult time trying to rank teams from 6-11... I almost feel like you could draw them from a hat, and you could make a case that it is a reasonable ranking. To me, there doesn't seem to be a lot of separation between those teams. Each has a lot of flaws and question marks at this juncture, granting that there is a lot of time left to go before the start of next season.
Also, I have updated the recruiting tracker, so hopefully that looks a little more up to date...
1. Weber State
Losses: James Hajek, Chris Golden, Jaylen Johnson-Coston
It was a disappointing year for the Wildcats, as they were the preseason pick to win the league, and they wound up sneaking into the tournament as the eight seed. However, next season should be much better. For one, the losses should be minimal, as James Hajek is the only senior, and then they lose two transfers. However, they weren't super young either - most of their production came from sophomores and juniors - so they will be flush with upperclassmen as well. The biggest name is Joel Bolomboy, who might never be the offensive force we want him to be, but is still a darn good player that can be the best shot blocking/rebounding force in the conference. Jeremy Senglin is still one of the most talented guys in the Big Sky, and Kyndahl Hill and Richaud Gittens are as athletic as anyone. There will be no shortage of upperclassmen talent.
All of this isn't to say that there is a lack of young talent as well. Weber State has been excellent recruiting, and reinforcements should make next year's team very deep. Ryan Richardson will be a sophomore, and he showed flashes of being a major threat stretching the floor. Jeremiah Jefferson redshirted this season, and he will be another athletic presence in the backcourt as a guy who can light it up from outside, or get to the rim. It is really a beneficial thing that they were able to redshirt him, and he should be dynamic. Up front, Zach Braxton redshirted as well, and he is a guy that could have made an impact as a true freshman for a lot of programs. He is a true post that will add depth and talent to a frontcourt that at times lacked size. That is not even including any incoming players who could potentially contribute.
Weber State took a one year step back, but they are primed to be right back in the thick of the title race again next season. With the likely departure of Tyler Harvey to the NBA Draft, it's reasonable to crown them at least as co-favorites, along with Montana and Eastern Washington.
2. Montana
Losses: Jordan Gregory, Mike Weisner, Chris Kemp
The co-champions only lose one starter, but he is a guy that will be tough to replace. Among all of their perimeter players, Gregory was the shot maker, and the guy that got the ball in crunch time. Mario Dunn has the talent to potentially evolve into that role, but his offensive skillset is not there yet.
The best thing Montana has going for them is big man Martin Breunig, a unanimous first team guy who almost beat the Eagles by himself in the Big Sky title game. He is dynamic in all phases, with the ability to hit midrange shots, put the ball on the floor and finish, and be one of the best rebounders in the Big Sky. He's a star. The Robin to his Batman is Dunn, who should win a defensive POY award before his career is out, and made a lot of strides offensively. If he can cut down on turnovers and develop a consistent outside shot that teams have to be wary of, he is a first-team all-conference type of player. He spearheads a Grizzlies defense that was the best in the Big Sky this year.
The role players are there too, as they always are for the Grizzlies. Brandon Gfeller could be the best shooter in the Big Sky next year (he shot 197 threes this year compared to 19 two-point attempts). Fabijan Krslovic was very steady as a freshman, and guys like Riley Bradshaw and Jack Lopez should be solid role players. The key will be replacing that production from Gregory, which will have to be a group effort. If they can do that, and if Dunn develops as expected, the Grizzlies have the pieces in place (including a top notch defensive mindset) to make another run at the Big Sky title.
3. Eastern Washington
Losses: Drew Brandon, Parker Kelly, Garrett Moon, Tyler Harvey
Before the news broke that Tyler Harvey would be entering the draft, I speculated in this now-rewritten section that EWU would be a unanimous selection as the preseason number one team in the Big Sky. Now, they are certainly still in the conversation (and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them number one), but I've dropped them down a couple spots.
The strength of the team will be up front. Everyone knows Venky Jois, who does a bit of everything on both ends for the Eagles. He shot over 60% on twos, rebounds on both ends as well as most guys in the Big Sky, and is one of the best shot blockers in the Big Sky. He has a good handle for a big man. Other than shooting free throws, there isn't much he can't do. You could argue he was even more valuable than Harvey for the Eagles last year.
Joining him up front is Bogdan Bliznyuk, who should be ready to absolutely take off as a sophomore. He is an extremely efficient scorer (he shot 58% on twos and 24/43 from three) who always seems to be under control. He is an excellent rebounder as well. With the ball in his hands a bit more this year, he could average something like 16 and 7. He will be fun to watch. Ognjen Miljkovic will be back up front, and though he was up and down at times, skilled big men who score 10 PPG, can shoot from three, and will bang with the big men down low defensively don't grow on trees. Felix Van Hofe will be a junior, and provides more shooting range for EWU.
The questions facing the Eagles come in the backcourt, after losing their top three guys there. Everyone knows about Harvey, but Drew Brandon did a bit of everything for them, and Parker Kelly was a dangerous shooter and steady player for them. It's going to be very tough to replace all of those guys. Sir Washington will likely start at one of the guard spots, after an impressive freshman year. He didn't play a lot as he missed time due to injury, but he was a high-energy, athletic player (he sparked them in the NCAA Tournament game). He will probably get all of the minutes he can handle.
Among newcomers, Will Ferris will be in the mix after redshirting last year. He projects to be able to play both guard positions, and would add another excellent shooter to the mix. A final candidate is incoming freshman Michael Wearne, who hails from Australia (where else?). Wearne is one of the top PG prospects from Australia, and put up some eye popping numbers over there. It's always difficult to predict freshmen production, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see him starting at PG and excelling right away.
When you put it together, nobody will be able to match the size and talent that the Eagles will have in the frontcourt, with multiple all-conference candidates up there. The key for them will be growth of young guards. If those guys develop (and Hayford has usually been able to get guard production), then the Eagles can win the Big Sky title again, even with some big losses.
4. Northern Arizona
Losses: Quinton Upshur, Aaseem Dixon, Len Springs
There is a fair amount of speculation in putting NAU this high, because they are losing two of their top three scorers (and leading shot blocker, and a four year guy in Gaellen Bewernick who has started most of his career), but don't necessarily have guys currently on the roster to replace them. They lost one backup guard to transfer this year, and another to academic ineligibility (who may be able to return). They are not a super deep team this season, often playing only seven guys, so they are losing over half of their main rotation.
Still, I feel comfortable putting them this high for a couple reasons. One, they even with the losses, they return arguably their two most important players. The first is PG Kris Yanku, who grew into a Big Sky first-team guy as a sophomore, and always seems to be in control of the offense. He is not a great outside shooter, and may never be, but he has the ability to almost get into the lane whenever he wants, draw a ton of fouls (7th in the country in the rate he draws fouls), and find open teammates (his 38.2 Assist Rate ranks 10th in the country. If he is able to score more efficiently (he shot an ugly 35% on twos this season), he can be the Big Sky player of the year. Their defensive anchor is Jordyn Martin, who was the Defensive POY this year. Martin isn't a big shot-blocker, but he's always in the right spot. Offensively, he is an excellent rebounder, and efficient finisher, shooting 58% this year.
Those two are joined by Ako Kaluna, one of the most skilled big men in the Big Sky. He can handle the ball, bang down low, but also hit from the outside, as he shot 43% on threes this year. With guys like those three, and expected improvement of Zachary Reynolds and Tate de Laveaga, the returning talent isn't as bare as it might seem.
NAU will be able to supplement this talent with six freshmen, a class that has been lauded by those who know more than me when it comes to recruits. It's impossible to say which of these guys will contribute, but I feel confident saying that some will. NAU has made a lot of strides in the three years under Jack Murphy, and while next year's team may not be quite as good as last year, they should still be a talented team that could be a Big Sky favorite entering 2016.
5. Southern Utah
Losses: Cal Hanks, Tyler Rawson (to LDS Mission), Austin Waddoups
Not only were they a young team last year, but Nick Robinson gave everyone a ton of playing time. For a long time, their bench played more minutes than anyone else in the country... They finished the year playing 44.8% of the team's minutes, fourth most in the nation. The loss of Cal Hanks will not hurt, but Tyler Rawson gave them a lot of good minutes this year. They are bringing in three frontcourt guys, so they should be able to put enough bodies in there and see what sticks in the frontcourt.
They have a ton of potential guards, so you can see why they didn't go for any in recruiting. AJ Hess can play the two or three, and is probably their best offensive guy with his shooting and size. He just keeps getting better, and will be a senior. James McGee was spectacular as a freshman with his shooting range - he made over 50% of his threes, which is remarkable. Nobody is talking about him, but he was quietly outstanding.
Trey Kennedy and Juwan Major are two guys who have the physical skills to be really good, but they haven't separated themselves through two seasons. Kennedy shot just 40% on twos this year, and Major had a 28.7 TO Rate. They need one of these guys to take a leap. John Marshall and Race Parsons are two other guys who will be juniors and while they have some flaws, they can be rotation pieces.
The reason I don't think they are a top tier yet is because nobody really stands out as a star to me. When you look at teams above them, there are guys that are potentially all-conference players there (Harvey, Jois, Yanku, Breunig, Senglin, Bolomboy, etc), but when I look at this SUU roster, I'm not sure who that guy would be. You can win a conference title with a lot of good players, but it helps to have a great player or two thrown in. We'll see if one develops for the Thunderbirds over the next couple of seasons.
6. Northern Colorado
Losses: Tevin Svihovec, Tim Hukisson, Dominique Lee, Corey Spence
The past couple of seasons had to be frustrating for the UNC staff, as the team was good enough offensively to make serious waves, but never got it together defensively. For the second straight year, they lose some key pieces, including four of their top six in minutes played. Of course, the cupboard still isn't bare.
Their backcourt will still be very solid, as Cam Michael and Jordan Wilson enter their junior seasons. Michael was one of the best newcomers in the conference this season, a great shooter with a quick release and ability to create his own shot. He shot 39% from downtown this season, and will slide over to become more of a focal point in the offense. Wilson is probably the fastest player in the Big Sky, and he uses that quickness to get in the lane, and pressure opponents defensively all over the court. He may never be a true distributor, but he takes great care of the ball, and can hit from the outside. Anthony Johnson will also be in for an expanded role. He was very efficient scoring the ball, but it was in very limited minutes.
The frontcourt has some solid players, though nobody that really stands out as a star. Cody McDavis and Jeremy Verhagen are both big bodies that can score efficiently, but neither has stood out as an above average rebounder or rim protector. Spencer Mathis played sparingly as a freshman, and he could be a combo 3/4 guy depending on his development.
Of the newcomers that they have signed up so far, Jordan Davis looks like he could be a really good player. He originally committed to EWU, and is excellent ballhandling and attacking the rim. When Wilson entered the program as a freshman two years ago, he split time with Corey Spence, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar arrangement, with Davis now splitting time with Jordan Wilson. They also will get transfer Dallas Anglin in from Southern Miss, who I assume will be eligible in the second semester, and he can fill some backcourt minutes as well.
All of this is to say that UNC will likely be able to score the ball next year, as they always do under BJ Hill. But, we'll have to see if they can build a championship contending defense out of the group. I'm not sure the pieces are there for that.
7. Portland State
Losses: Gary Winston, DaShaun Wiggins, Tim Douglas, Tiegbe Bamba, Brandon Cataldo
The six through eleven logjam is typified by Portland State. They are losing a lot of talented guys, and there aren't necessarily many obviously replacements on the roster. As a change from some previous years, they look to be strongest in the frontcourt, where Collin Spickerman and Braxton Tucker both return. Spickerman was an interesting player... He was not a great offensive force, but he was strong on the glass (especially offensively), and he was 12th in the country in his block rate. Tucker is a little more of an offensive presence, as he shot over 50%, and was really missed when he was hurt.
The backcourt will be more interesting, because there are a lot of unknowns. Zach Gengler played the most among returning guys, and he is a guy that shoots the ball well. He was also pretty good as a defensive rebounder for a guard. They will need him to play a bigger offensive role. Iziahiah Sweeney got some time as a freshman, and while he is raw, flashed some skills. He needs to improve his outside shots, and he wasn't much of a distributor, but they like him. Sebastian Suarez could also get some time as a senior... He was billed as a great shooter but hasn't seen a lot of playing time.
The Vikings will also get transfer guard Calaen Robinson eligible. He transferred from Arizona State, and sat out last season. While Robinson didn't do much for ASU, he was the 19th best PG recruit coming out of high school. You don't need to look any further than Montana this year to see the impact a major program transfer can have. Bryce White will also be back. He only played 13 games last year because of injury, but he averaged 9.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game when he was playing. A core of Robinson-White-Spickerman-Tucker is pretty solid.
Part of the reason I have them as high as seven is because Tyler Geving is always very active on the juco market. While I worry about that strategy and how it works for overall team building, it should help to ensure they don't sink too low. We will see what kinds of players he is able to get from the junior college ranks.
8. North Dakota
Losses: Jaron Nash, Lenny Antwi, Chad Calcaterra, Ryan Salmonsen, Josiah Coleman, Kraig Shields
The sheer number of players leaving the program (either through graduation or transfer) is a bit exhausting, but it's not as bad as it looks. The biggest name is Jaron Nash, and though he was a very talented guy who could do a lot of things, at times he may have hurt the offense more than helped it. The other notable loss is Lenny Antwi, who followed up three OK years with a very solid senior season that saw him become a more consistent outside threat.
However, they still have some guys, especially in the backourt. Quinton Hooker took the big step forward that many people thought he would as a sophomore, becoming a steady PG with improved scoring punch. He will be an all-conference candidate type of player next year, and is easily their most important guy. He is joined in the backcourt by two transfers from last year who will be seniors - Estan Tyler and Terrell de Rouen. Tyler has the ability to be a very good scorer with a dangerous outside shot. De Rouen is the better defender of the two, but he shots a miserable 30% on over 100 threes last year - which quickly makes you a net negative offensively. Dustin Hobaugh is another guy that will get minutes, and can hit shots from anywhere on the court.
Up front is where there will be more question marks. The anchor will likely be Carson Shanks, who became eligible in the second semester last year, and flashed some skills. He was solid rebounding the ball, and showed some shot blocking chops. They are expecting growth from him. Bryce Cashman got some minutes as a freshman, and had an interesting time. He was 22/36 from the floor (great), but 8/24 from the free throw line (yeesh).
In the recruits that they have signed so far, it seems like there was an emphasis on wings, and they got some talented guys. I expect they will sign a JUCO big man or two to provide some depth and talent in the frontcourt, with immediate playing time being a lure for them.
After reaching the Big Sky title game two years, they predictably took a step back as guys graduated. However, they have more talent than you might think, and should compete in the middle of the Big Sky next season.
9. Sacramento State
Losses: Dylan Garrity, Mikh McKinney, Zach Mills, Alex Tiffin
This may be a little low after the best year in school history, but Garrity and McKinney did so much for the program, and they will be extremely difficult to replace. Also gone is Zach Mills, who was an underrated contributor in the frontcourt, and had the ability to play multiple positions.
The torch will have to be carried by Cody Demps, a do-it-all senior who has enjoyed a secondary role offensively the past couple of years. A three year starter, Demps really came into his own last season, shooting over 50% on twos, and making frequent trips to the foul line, where he shot 80%. He can also move the ball, and is their best defender. However, we have to see who will join him in the backcourt.
Dreon Bartlett played a secondary role last year, mostly as a catch and shoot guy. He was a 45% three-point shooter (though not on a ton of attempts), so there is certainly something there. Possibly the leading candidate to be the primary ballhandler is Marcus Graves. The 6'0'' guard was compared by Coach Katz to Dylan Garrity when he signed. Another guy is Jiday Ugbaja, who redshirted last season. The 5'10'' guard can be an athletic and dynamic scorer, with the ability to shoot and drive. Incoming freshman Jeff Wu could also be in the mix.
In the frontcourt, they have some guys, but not a lot who are proven. Eric Stuteville has been an important part of the team the last two years, as a guy who can score in a variety of ways in the post. He is not super quick, and has struggled rebounding the ball defensively, but he could be a main option offensively. His brother, Mason Stuteville, came in pretty highly touted, and wound up redshirting. He has the skillset to be more of a stretch four. Two other guys, James Herrick and Justin Strings, will get some time. Herrick is a bruising inside player who should split time with E Stuteville at the five. Strings played in 23 games last year, though he didn't play enough to draw any conclusions. He is a small power forward, the type that so often thrive in the Big Sky.
The Hornets will take a big step back next year, but they'll be a very young team that should have a bright future ahead of them.
10. Idaho
Losses: Sekou Wiggs, Connor Hill, Mike Scott, Bira Seck
It was a disappointing year for the Vandals. They were talented enough to beat anyone in the Big Sky, as they showed during the year. However, they snuck into the Big Sky tournament as a seven seed, falling to EWU in the first round. They lose four of their top five scorers, meaning next could be a bit of a rebuilding year in Moscow.
The best player returning is Arkadiy Mkrtychyan, who was a bit of a forgotten freshman this season. He was superbly efficient scoring the basketball, and rebounding well on both ends of the court. He is not bad at drawing fouls and getting to the line either. He will be an all-conference first-team player at some point in his career - he is that good. He is joined up front by guys like Ty Egbert and Jordan Scott, who both played well, but in limited minutes. Scott in particular could have a bright future.
They will also get transfer Skyler White eligible, after he sat out last season. White played at George Washington, where was active in 17 games but didn't accumulate much in the way of stats. With Paul Mpawe and Nahshon George also in the mix, they will have plenty of bodies up front, it's just a matter of some of them developing next to Ark up front.
In the backcourt, the main holdover is Perrion Callandret, who looked much improved as a sophomore, showing a solid three-point stroke to go along with vicious athleticism. He could be the best dunker in the conference. He didn't flash much in the way of creating for others, so it will be interesting to see if that is a role he has to fill. Victor Sanders is another guy that got a good amount of playing time, and was a good shot beyond the arc. He needs to be better inside the arc, but he could be a player. Another guy to watch is Jake Straughan, who redshirted last year after a high school career as the quintessential three-sport star. Tyler Brimhall could play as well.
All in all, the Vandals will be a young team, without a ton of proven guys. However, history also shows they will be a team that can score points under Don Verlin. We'll see if they can defend well enough to crawl into the middle of the pack/
11. Montana State
Losses: Blake Brumwell, Mike Dison, Eric Norman, Ryan Shannon, Joey Frenchwood, Terrell Brown, Bradley Fisher
I am not sure what to make of these guys heading into next season. I like Brian Fish, and I feel like he will build this into a winning program in time. However, next year looks like another year of growing pains with a young roster.
There will still be some pieces for a fast-paced team that can shoot from outside. Leading the way is Marcus Colbert, who was the sixth man of the year in the conference, but played more minutes than anyone else on the team. He was greatly improved as a distributor, while also displaying a dangerous outside shot. It is big to get him back. Stephan Holm is one guy that will join him in the backourt. Holm was a 33% three-point shooter on a lot of attempts, but the hope is that he will improve that and become a guy that can really stretch defenses. Zach Green will also return, and he got a lot of experience as a freshman.
In the frontcourt, Danny Robison had a nice impact as a junior, scoring efficiently inside the arc and becoming an outside threat. He is a guy where they at least have some certainty that he will be a productive player for them. Quinn Price is a guy with some talent, and should be better as a sophomore.
Beyond those guys, there are a lot of question marks. They have a big recruiting class, and they will need some of those guys to play right away. Fish's recruiting focus a lot of times has been clear to see - guys that can shoot the ball, handle it well, and are comfortable playing at a high tempo. Again, it will take some time for that plan to come to fruition, and there will likely be another year like last season, but things should slowly come more and more into focus.
12. Idaho State
Losses: Chris Hansen, Jeffrey Solarin, Evann Hall, Nnamdi Ezenwa, Ajak Magot
I like Bill Evans, and I think he is a great basketball mind. However, next year could be a long one for the Bengals, a program that has averaged just eight wins per season since he took over three years ago (in fairness, the cupboard was extremely bare when he took over).
Unlike other teams at the bottom of the Big Sky, the Bengals were an experienced team - by some measures the seventh most experienced team in college basketball, as measured by the class of the guys who played the most minutes. They lose arguably their three best guys. The most experienced returner is guard Ben Wilson, who started at PG and played 87% of the team's minutes. He is not a natural PG, but did have a solid 21.1 Assist Rate. He is not a huge offensive threat, but his experience will be nice to have around.
In terms of underclassmen, Geno Luzcando played a good chunk of minutes as a true freshman, though he may not have been quite ready. He struggled taking care of the basketball, and with shot selection... Still, he is a talented guy that will likely be given some opportunities next year. Big man Andre Slavik is a guy that Bengals fans like, though he didn't play enough to get a great read on him. The sophomore was just 10/14 from the field, but did not rebound very well and turned the ball over frequently.
The Bengals are bringing in some JUCO guards to hopefully provide some experience and a quicker injection of talent than a freshman might, and hopefully those guys will be ready to go right away. I am just speculating here, but I imagine that with another poor year, Evans could start to feel some job pressure, if he is not already. If you ever listen to him, you know he is one of the most likeable and quotable coaches in the Big Sky, so I am rooting for some Bengals success next year. As of today, however, they look to be on the bottom rung of the conference for next season.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Let me state the obvious caveat - everything is conjecture at this point. I would love to hear the dissenting opinions, because next year should be a fun year in the Big Sky, as always. Please let me know where you think I am right or wrong... I don't really have anything to base this off of except my own thoughts and opinions, so I don't know if my views are common or not.
The Big Sky was very deep this season, though there was no dominant team. You could see this in the conference tournament, where even the number eight seed Weber State had a legit shot at the title. There was a lot of balance this year. Next season, there still doesn't seem to be a dominant team (more on that in the previews), but there also doesn't seem to be quite the depth that there was this season, at least at first glance.
To be honest, I had a really difficult time trying to rank teams from 6-11... I almost feel like you could draw them from a hat, and you could make a case that it is a reasonable ranking. To me, there doesn't seem to be a lot of separation between those teams. Each has a lot of flaws and question marks at this juncture, granting that there is a lot of time left to go before the start of next season.
Also, I have updated the recruiting tracker, so hopefully that looks a little more up to date...
1. Weber State
Losses: James Hajek, Chris Golden, Jaylen Johnson-Coston
It was a disappointing year for the Wildcats, as they were the preseason pick to win the league, and they wound up sneaking into the tournament as the eight seed. However, next season should be much better. For one, the losses should be minimal, as James Hajek is the only senior, and then they lose two transfers. However, they weren't super young either - most of their production came from sophomores and juniors - so they will be flush with upperclassmen as well. The biggest name is Joel Bolomboy, who might never be the offensive force we want him to be, but is still a darn good player that can be the best shot blocking/rebounding force in the conference. Jeremy Senglin is still one of the most talented guys in the Big Sky, and Kyndahl Hill and Richaud Gittens are as athletic as anyone. There will be no shortage of upperclassmen talent.
All of this isn't to say that there is a lack of young talent as well. Weber State has been excellent recruiting, and reinforcements should make next year's team very deep. Ryan Richardson will be a sophomore, and he showed flashes of being a major threat stretching the floor. Jeremiah Jefferson redshirted this season, and he will be another athletic presence in the backcourt as a guy who can light it up from outside, or get to the rim. It is really a beneficial thing that they were able to redshirt him, and he should be dynamic. Up front, Zach Braxton redshirted as well, and he is a guy that could have made an impact as a true freshman for a lot of programs. He is a true post that will add depth and talent to a frontcourt that at times lacked size. That is not even including any incoming players who could potentially contribute.
Weber State took a one year step back, but they are primed to be right back in the thick of the title race again next season. With the likely departure of Tyler Harvey to the NBA Draft, it's reasonable to crown them at least as co-favorites, along with Montana and Eastern Washington.
2. Montana
Losses: Jordan Gregory, Mike Weisner, Chris Kemp
The co-champions only lose one starter, but he is a guy that will be tough to replace. Among all of their perimeter players, Gregory was the shot maker, and the guy that got the ball in crunch time. Mario Dunn has the talent to potentially evolve into that role, but his offensive skillset is not there yet.
The best thing Montana has going for them is big man Martin Breunig, a unanimous first team guy who almost beat the Eagles by himself in the Big Sky title game. He is dynamic in all phases, with the ability to hit midrange shots, put the ball on the floor and finish, and be one of the best rebounders in the Big Sky. He's a star. The Robin to his Batman is Dunn, who should win a defensive POY award before his career is out, and made a lot of strides offensively. If he can cut down on turnovers and develop a consistent outside shot that teams have to be wary of, he is a first-team all-conference type of player. He spearheads a Grizzlies defense that was the best in the Big Sky this year.
The role players are there too, as they always are for the Grizzlies. Brandon Gfeller could be the best shooter in the Big Sky next year (he shot 197 threes this year compared to 19 two-point attempts). Fabijan Krslovic was very steady as a freshman, and guys like Riley Bradshaw and Jack Lopez should be solid role players. The key will be replacing that production from Gregory, which will have to be a group effort. If they can do that, and if Dunn develops as expected, the Grizzlies have the pieces in place (including a top notch defensive mindset) to make another run at the Big Sky title.
3. Eastern Washington
Losses: Drew Brandon, Parker Kelly, Garrett Moon, Tyler Harvey
Before the news broke that Tyler Harvey would be entering the draft, I speculated in this now-rewritten section that EWU would be a unanimous selection as the preseason number one team in the Big Sky. Now, they are certainly still in the conversation (and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them number one), but I've dropped them down a couple spots.
The strength of the team will be up front. Everyone knows Venky Jois, who does a bit of everything on both ends for the Eagles. He shot over 60% on twos, rebounds on both ends as well as most guys in the Big Sky, and is one of the best shot blockers in the Big Sky. He has a good handle for a big man. Other than shooting free throws, there isn't much he can't do. You could argue he was even more valuable than Harvey for the Eagles last year.
Joining him up front is Bogdan Bliznyuk, who should be ready to absolutely take off as a sophomore. He is an extremely efficient scorer (he shot 58% on twos and 24/43 from three) who always seems to be under control. He is an excellent rebounder as well. With the ball in his hands a bit more this year, he could average something like 16 and 7. He will be fun to watch. Ognjen Miljkovic will be back up front, and though he was up and down at times, skilled big men who score 10 PPG, can shoot from three, and will bang with the big men down low defensively don't grow on trees. Felix Van Hofe will be a junior, and provides more shooting range for EWU.
The questions facing the Eagles come in the backcourt, after losing their top three guys there. Everyone knows about Harvey, but Drew Brandon did a bit of everything for them, and Parker Kelly was a dangerous shooter and steady player for them. It's going to be very tough to replace all of those guys. Sir Washington will likely start at one of the guard spots, after an impressive freshman year. He didn't play a lot as he missed time due to injury, but he was a high-energy, athletic player (he sparked them in the NCAA Tournament game). He will probably get all of the minutes he can handle.
Among newcomers, Will Ferris will be in the mix after redshirting last year. He projects to be able to play both guard positions, and would add another excellent shooter to the mix. A final candidate is incoming freshman Michael Wearne, who hails from Australia (where else?). Wearne is one of the top PG prospects from Australia, and put up some eye popping numbers over there. It's always difficult to predict freshmen production, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see him starting at PG and excelling right away.
When you put it together, nobody will be able to match the size and talent that the Eagles will have in the frontcourt, with multiple all-conference candidates up there. The key for them will be growth of young guards. If those guys develop (and Hayford has usually been able to get guard production), then the Eagles can win the Big Sky title again, even with some big losses.
4. Northern Arizona
Losses: Quinton Upshur, Aaseem Dixon, Len Springs
There is a fair amount of speculation in putting NAU this high, because they are losing two of their top three scorers (and leading shot blocker, and a four year guy in Gaellen Bewernick who has started most of his career), but don't necessarily have guys currently on the roster to replace them. They lost one backup guard to transfer this year, and another to academic ineligibility (who may be able to return). They are not a super deep team this season, often playing only seven guys, so they are losing over half of their main rotation.
Still, I feel comfortable putting them this high for a couple reasons. One, they even with the losses, they return arguably their two most important players. The first is PG Kris Yanku, who grew into a Big Sky first-team guy as a sophomore, and always seems to be in control of the offense. He is not a great outside shooter, and may never be, but he has the ability to almost get into the lane whenever he wants, draw a ton of fouls (7th in the country in the rate he draws fouls), and find open teammates (his 38.2 Assist Rate ranks 10th in the country. If he is able to score more efficiently (he shot an ugly 35% on twos this season), he can be the Big Sky player of the year. Their defensive anchor is Jordyn Martin, who was the Defensive POY this year. Martin isn't a big shot-blocker, but he's always in the right spot. Offensively, he is an excellent rebounder, and efficient finisher, shooting 58% this year.
Those two are joined by Ako Kaluna, one of the most skilled big men in the Big Sky. He can handle the ball, bang down low, but also hit from the outside, as he shot 43% on threes this year. With guys like those three, and expected improvement of Zachary Reynolds and Tate de Laveaga, the returning talent isn't as bare as it might seem.
NAU will be able to supplement this talent with six freshmen, a class that has been lauded by those who know more than me when it comes to recruits. It's impossible to say which of these guys will contribute, but I feel confident saying that some will. NAU has made a lot of strides in the three years under Jack Murphy, and while next year's team may not be quite as good as last year, they should still be a talented team that could be a Big Sky favorite entering 2016.
5. Southern Utah
Losses: Cal Hanks, Tyler Rawson (to LDS Mission), Austin Waddoups
Not only were they a young team last year, but Nick Robinson gave everyone a ton of playing time. For a long time, their bench played more minutes than anyone else in the country... They finished the year playing 44.8% of the team's minutes, fourth most in the nation. The loss of Cal Hanks will not hurt, but Tyler Rawson gave them a lot of good minutes this year. They are bringing in three frontcourt guys, so they should be able to put enough bodies in there and see what sticks in the frontcourt.
They have a ton of potential guards, so you can see why they didn't go for any in recruiting. AJ Hess can play the two or three, and is probably their best offensive guy with his shooting and size. He just keeps getting better, and will be a senior. James McGee was spectacular as a freshman with his shooting range - he made over 50% of his threes, which is remarkable. Nobody is talking about him, but he was quietly outstanding.
Trey Kennedy and Juwan Major are two guys who have the physical skills to be really good, but they haven't separated themselves through two seasons. Kennedy shot just 40% on twos this year, and Major had a 28.7 TO Rate. They need one of these guys to take a leap. John Marshall and Race Parsons are two other guys who will be juniors and while they have some flaws, they can be rotation pieces.
The reason I don't think they are a top tier yet is because nobody really stands out as a star to me. When you look at teams above them, there are guys that are potentially all-conference players there (Harvey, Jois, Yanku, Breunig, Senglin, Bolomboy, etc), but when I look at this SUU roster, I'm not sure who that guy would be. You can win a conference title with a lot of good players, but it helps to have a great player or two thrown in. We'll see if one develops for the Thunderbirds over the next couple of seasons.
6. Northern Colorado
Losses: Tevin Svihovec, Tim Hukisson, Dominique Lee, Corey Spence
The past couple of seasons had to be frustrating for the UNC staff, as the team was good enough offensively to make serious waves, but never got it together defensively. For the second straight year, they lose some key pieces, including four of their top six in minutes played. Of course, the cupboard still isn't bare.
Their backcourt will still be very solid, as Cam Michael and Jordan Wilson enter their junior seasons. Michael was one of the best newcomers in the conference this season, a great shooter with a quick release and ability to create his own shot. He shot 39% from downtown this season, and will slide over to become more of a focal point in the offense. Wilson is probably the fastest player in the Big Sky, and he uses that quickness to get in the lane, and pressure opponents defensively all over the court. He may never be a true distributor, but he takes great care of the ball, and can hit from the outside. Anthony Johnson will also be in for an expanded role. He was very efficient scoring the ball, but it was in very limited minutes.
The frontcourt has some solid players, though nobody that really stands out as a star. Cody McDavis and Jeremy Verhagen are both big bodies that can score efficiently, but neither has stood out as an above average rebounder or rim protector. Spencer Mathis played sparingly as a freshman, and he could be a combo 3/4 guy depending on his development.
Of the newcomers that they have signed up so far, Jordan Davis looks like he could be a really good player. He originally committed to EWU, and is excellent ballhandling and attacking the rim. When Wilson entered the program as a freshman two years ago, he split time with Corey Spence, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar arrangement, with Davis now splitting time with Jordan Wilson. They also will get transfer Dallas Anglin in from Southern Miss, who I assume will be eligible in the second semester, and he can fill some backcourt minutes as well.
All of this is to say that UNC will likely be able to score the ball next year, as they always do under BJ Hill. But, we'll have to see if they can build a championship contending defense out of the group. I'm not sure the pieces are there for that.
7. Portland State
Losses: Gary Winston, DaShaun Wiggins, Tim Douglas, Tiegbe Bamba, Brandon Cataldo
The six through eleven logjam is typified by Portland State. They are losing a lot of talented guys, and there aren't necessarily many obviously replacements on the roster. As a change from some previous years, they look to be strongest in the frontcourt, where Collin Spickerman and Braxton Tucker both return. Spickerman was an interesting player... He was not a great offensive force, but he was strong on the glass (especially offensively), and he was 12th in the country in his block rate. Tucker is a little more of an offensive presence, as he shot over 50%, and was really missed when he was hurt.
The backcourt will be more interesting, because there are a lot of unknowns. Zach Gengler played the most among returning guys, and he is a guy that shoots the ball well. He was also pretty good as a defensive rebounder for a guard. They will need him to play a bigger offensive role. Iziahiah Sweeney got some time as a freshman, and while he is raw, flashed some skills. He needs to improve his outside shots, and he wasn't much of a distributor, but they like him. Sebastian Suarez could also get some time as a senior... He was billed as a great shooter but hasn't seen a lot of playing time.
The Vikings will also get transfer guard Calaen Robinson eligible. He transferred from Arizona State, and sat out last season. While Robinson didn't do much for ASU, he was the 19th best PG recruit coming out of high school. You don't need to look any further than Montana this year to see the impact a major program transfer can have. Bryce White will also be back. He only played 13 games last year because of injury, but he averaged 9.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game when he was playing. A core of Robinson-White-Spickerman-Tucker is pretty solid.
Part of the reason I have them as high as seven is because Tyler Geving is always very active on the juco market. While I worry about that strategy and how it works for overall team building, it should help to ensure they don't sink too low. We will see what kinds of players he is able to get from the junior college ranks.
8. North Dakota
Losses: Jaron Nash, Lenny Antwi, Chad Calcaterra, Ryan Salmonsen, Josiah Coleman, Kraig Shields
The sheer number of players leaving the program (either through graduation or transfer) is a bit exhausting, but it's not as bad as it looks. The biggest name is Jaron Nash, and though he was a very talented guy who could do a lot of things, at times he may have hurt the offense more than helped it. The other notable loss is Lenny Antwi, who followed up three OK years with a very solid senior season that saw him become a more consistent outside threat.
However, they still have some guys, especially in the backourt. Quinton Hooker took the big step forward that many people thought he would as a sophomore, becoming a steady PG with improved scoring punch. He will be an all-conference candidate type of player next year, and is easily their most important guy. He is joined in the backcourt by two transfers from last year who will be seniors - Estan Tyler and Terrell de Rouen. Tyler has the ability to be a very good scorer with a dangerous outside shot. De Rouen is the better defender of the two, but he shots a miserable 30% on over 100 threes last year - which quickly makes you a net negative offensively. Dustin Hobaugh is another guy that will get minutes, and can hit shots from anywhere on the court.
Up front is where there will be more question marks. The anchor will likely be Carson Shanks, who became eligible in the second semester last year, and flashed some skills. He was solid rebounding the ball, and showed some shot blocking chops. They are expecting growth from him. Bryce Cashman got some minutes as a freshman, and had an interesting time. He was 22/36 from the floor (great), but 8/24 from the free throw line (yeesh).
In the recruits that they have signed so far, it seems like there was an emphasis on wings, and they got some talented guys. I expect they will sign a JUCO big man or two to provide some depth and talent in the frontcourt, with immediate playing time being a lure for them.
After reaching the Big Sky title game two years, they predictably took a step back as guys graduated. However, they have more talent than you might think, and should compete in the middle of the Big Sky next season.
9. Sacramento State
Losses: Dylan Garrity, Mikh McKinney, Zach Mills, Alex Tiffin
This may be a little low after the best year in school history, but Garrity and McKinney did so much for the program, and they will be extremely difficult to replace. Also gone is Zach Mills, who was an underrated contributor in the frontcourt, and had the ability to play multiple positions.
The torch will have to be carried by Cody Demps, a do-it-all senior who has enjoyed a secondary role offensively the past couple of years. A three year starter, Demps really came into his own last season, shooting over 50% on twos, and making frequent trips to the foul line, where he shot 80%. He can also move the ball, and is their best defender. However, we have to see who will join him in the backcourt.
Dreon Bartlett played a secondary role last year, mostly as a catch and shoot guy. He was a 45% three-point shooter (though not on a ton of attempts), so there is certainly something there. Possibly the leading candidate to be the primary ballhandler is Marcus Graves. The 6'0'' guard was compared by Coach Katz to Dylan Garrity when he signed. Another guy is Jiday Ugbaja, who redshirted last season. The 5'10'' guard can be an athletic and dynamic scorer, with the ability to shoot and drive. Incoming freshman Jeff Wu could also be in the mix.
In the frontcourt, they have some guys, but not a lot who are proven. Eric Stuteville has been an important part of the team the last two years, as a guy who can score in a variety of ways in the post. He is not super quick, and has struggled rebounding the ball defensively, but he could be a main option offensively. His brother, Mason Stuteville, came in pretty highly touted, and wound up redshirting. He has the skillset to be more of a stretch four. Two other guys, James Herrick and Justin Strings, will get some time. Herrick is a bruising inside player who should split time with E Stuteville at the five. Strings played in 23 games last year, though he didn't play enough to draw any conclusions. He is a small power forward, the type that so often thrive in the Big Sky.
The Hornets will take a big step back next year, but they'll be a very young team that should have a bright future ahead of them.
10. Idaho
Losses: Sekou Wiggs, Connor Hill, Mike Scott, Bira Seck
It was a disappointing year for the Vandals. They were talented enough to beat anyone in the Big Sky, as they showed during the year. However, they snuck into the Big Sky tournament as a seven seed, falling to EWU in the first round. They lose four of their top five scorers, meaning next could be a bit of a rebuilding year in Moscow.
The best player returning is Arkadiy Mkrtychyan, who was a bit of a forgotten freshman this season. He was superbly efficient scoring the basketball, and rebounding well on both ends of the court. He is not bad at drawing fouls and getting to the line either. He will be an all-conference first-team player at some point in his career - he is that good. He is joined up front by guys like Ty Egbert and Jordan Scott, who both played well, but in limited minutes. Scott in particular could have a bright future.
They will also get transfer Skyler White eligible, after he sat out last season. White played at George Washington, where was active in 17 games but didn't accumulate much in the way of stats. With Paul Mpawe and Nahshon George also in the mix, they will have plenty of bodies up front, it's just a matter of some of them developing next to Ark up front.
In the backcourt, the main holdover is Perrion Callandret, who looked much improved as a sophomore, showing a solid three-point stroke to go along with vicious athleticism. He could be the best dunker in the conference. He didn't flash much in the way of creating for others, so it will be interesting to see if that is a role he has to fill. Victor Sanders is another guy that got a good amount of playing time, and was a good shot beyond the arc. He needs to be better inside the arc, but he could be a player. Another guy to watch is Jake Straughan, who redshirted last year after a high school career as the quintessential three-sport star. Tyler Brimhall could play as well.
All in all, the Vandals will be a young team, without a ton of proven guys. However, history also shows they will be a team that can score points under Don Verlin. We'll see if they can defend well enough to crawl into the middle of the pack/
11. Montana State
Losses: Blake Brumwell, Mike Dison, Eric Norman, Ryan Shannon, Joey Frenchwood, Terrell Brown, Bradley Fisher
I am not sure what to make of these guys heading into next season. I like Brian Fish, and I feel like he will build this into a winning program in time. However, next year looks like another year of growing pains with a young roster.
There will still be some pieces for a fast-paced team that can shoot from outside. Leading the way is Marcus Colbert, who was the sixth man of the year in the conference, but played more minutes than anyone else on the team. He was greatly improved as a distributor, while also displaying a dangerous outside shot. It is big to get him back. Stephan Holm is one guy that will join him in the backourt. Holm was a 33% three-point shooter on a lot of attempts, but the hope is that he will improve that and become a guy that can really stretch defenses. Zach Green will also return, and he got a lot of experience as a freshman.
In the frontcourt, Danny Robison had a nice impact as a junior, scoring efficiently inside the arc and becoming an outside threat. He is a guy where they at least have some certainty that he will be a productive player for them. Quinn Price is a guy with some talent, and should be better as a sophomore.
Beyond those guys, there are a lot of question marks. They have a big recruiting class, and they will need some of those guys to play right away. Fish's recruiting focus a lot of times has been clear to see - guys that can shoot the ball, handle it well, and are comfortable playing at a high tempo. Again, it will take some time for that plan to come to fruition, and there will likely be another year like last season, but things should slowly come more and more into focus.
12. Idaho State
Losses: Chris Hansen, Jeffrey Solarin, Evann Hall, Nnamdi Ezenwa, Ajak Magot
I like Bill Evans, and I think he is a great basketball mind. However, next year could be a long one for the Bengals, a program that has averaged just eight wins per season since he took over three years ago (in fairness, the cupboard was extremely bare when he took over).
Unlike other teams at the bottom of the Big Sky, the Bengals were an experienced team - by some measures the seventh most experienced team in college basketball, as measured by the class of the guys who played the most minutes. They lose arguably their three best guys. The most experienced returner is guard Ben Wilson, who started at PG and played 87% of the team's minutes. He is not a natural PG, but did have a solid 21.1 Assist Rate. He is not a huge offensive threat, but his experience will be nice to have around.
In terms of underclassmen, Geno Luzcando played a good chunk of minutes as a true freshman, though he may not have been quite ready. He struggled taking care of the basketball, and with shot selection... Still, he is a talented guy that will likely be given some opportunities next year. Big man Andre Slavik is a guy that Bengals fans like, though he didn't play enough to get a great read on him. The sophomore was just 10/14 from the field, but did not rebound very well and turned the ball over frequently.
The Bengals are bringing in some JUCO guards to hopefully provide some experience and a quicker injection of talent than a freshman might, and hopefully those guys will be ready to go right away. I am just speculating here, but I imagine that with another poor year, Evans could start to feel some job pressure, if he is not already. If you ever listen to him, you know he is one of the most likeable and quotable coaches in the Big Sky, so I am rooting for some Bengals success next year. As of today, however, they look to be on the bottom rung of the conference for next season.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Northern Arizona and Sacramento State Will Meet in the CIT
And you thought Big Sky play was over!
On Wednesday in the CIT, both Northern Arizona and Sacramento State advanced to the next round... For the next round, NAU will travel to take on Sacramento State, who will host the game at their home gym.
Northern Arizona beat Grand Canyon, shutting down former Lumberjack DeWayne Russell (3 points on 1/10 FG) in the process. Aaseem Dixon had 21 points to lead the way, while Jordyn Martin contributed 10 points and 14 rebounds. The win makes it a 20 win season for the Lumberjacks, their first since 2008.
Meanwhile, Sac State went on the road and beat Portland 73-66, getting their first postseason win since 1962! Dylan Garrity led the way with 17 points, while Mikh McKinney was right behind with 16. That gives the Hornets 21 wins on the season.
On Tuesday night, Montana saw their season end in the NIT, as they were taken down by Texas A&M, 81-64. The Grizzlies rallied in the second half, but they weren't able to sustain their momentum. Their season ends at 20-13. Jordan Gregory had 20 points, seven rebounds, and five assists to wrap up a great Montana career.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
On Wednesday in the CIT, both Northern Arizona and Sacramento State advanced to the next round... For the next round, NAU will travel to take on Sacramento State, who will host the game at their home gym.
Northern Arizona beat Grand Canyon, shutting down former Lumberjack DeWayne Russell (3 points on 1/10 FG) in the process. Aaseem Dixon had 21 points to lead the way, while Jordyn Martin contributed 10 points and 14 rebounds. The win makes it a 20 win season for the Lumberjacks, their first since 2008.
Meanwhile, Sac State went on the road and beat Portland 73-66, getting their first postseason win since 1962! Dylan Garrity led the way with 17 points, while Mikh McKinney was right behind with 16. That gives the Hornets 21 wins on the season.
On Tuesday night, Montana saw their season end in the NIT, as they were taken down by Texas A&M, 81-64. The Grizzlies rallied in the second half, but they weren't able to sustain their momentum. Their season ends at 20-13. Jordan Gregory had 20 points, seven rebounds, and five assists to wrap up a great Montana career.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Monday, March 16, 2015
A Final Word on Montana/Northern Arizona Finish
As you no doubt know, there were some controversial happenings at the end of the Big Sky semifinal game between Montana and Northern Arizona, when Montana player (who is sitting out the year) Jermaine Edmonds ran onto the court with 0.4 seconds left, before sprinting back and diving to the sideline. I wrote a few of my thoughts on my recap post after the game, and have sprinkled in some comments on twitter throughout the past week.
However, it was such a big story, that I wanted to expand on my thoughts a little bit, and walk through why I feel what I feel. First off, in case you somehow missed it, here is the video:
According to what I have heard, the official explanation given to NAU is that no technical foul was called because there was no interference on the play.
It is my opinion, which has been strengthened after talking to Big Sky coaches, and hearing from all types of people associated with college basketball (there was widespread commentary even from national media after the game), that a technical foul not only should have been called, but needed to be called in that situation.
My points:
1) If NAU had thrown the ball in immediately after the basket, especially toward that direction of the court, then presumably that would have necessitated that there was proper interference for a technical foul to be called. Because they didn't, the refs claim there was no interference. But what if NAU didn't throw the ball in precisely BECAUSE there was a guy in street clothes on the court with time on the clock? If you saw that, would you throw the ball in, or would you wait for things to clear? To claim there is no interference appears to be awfully arbitrary.
2) After the Gregory basket, the refs stopped the game (no timeout was called according to the play by play), presumably both to check the clock, and check the replay of the guy running onto the court. If they stopped the game even in part to look at that, that's interference right there.
3) It appears that Edmonds was noted by NAU players, and could have added to some confusion from that side, which would constitute interference. If you watch the video, it appears the player in bounding the ball looked that direction first... Did he turn away because a guy in street clothes is on the court?
4) As noted in the comments here, it is also a major player safety issue. I don't think Edmonds scoped the scene out before rushing and diving back to the bench. If a player was in the way, that's a serious knee injury waiting to happen. Not calling a technical is one heck of a precedent to set.
5) Let's take it out of context... let's say there's an NCAA Tournament game, and the ball is on one side of the court. Let's then say that on the opposite bench, someone saunters halfway on the court and does something on the opposite end of the court (it could be anything: dance, bounce a ball, try to rile up the crowd), but he gets back to the bench before the game changes ends. In theory, he has not interfered with the play, but do you think that's going to stop the refs from giving him a technical foul?
An absurd example, maybe, but under the explanation given, how do you call something like that a technical but say this isn't a technical foul?
Now, it is important to note that the non-call did not necessarily win or lose the game. Even if a technical foul is called, Montana is still likely going to win. NAU would have sent Kris Yanku to the line, an 80% FT shooter. That would make it a 65% chance he makes both free throws, which would have sent the game to OT. Let's say NAU had a 35% chance of winning the OT, being on the road - that means that if a technical foul was called, there's still only a 22% chance to win. In most scenarios, Montana still advances. But the fact that we didn't get to find out what would have happened is, frankly, embarrassing.
I understand that nobody wants to see something like that happen - a game shouldn't be decided in part because a player on the bench had an emotional reaction to a great play. Everyone hates when that helps decide games. But you can't just choose when to selectively enforce the rules.
In the days that followed, the Big Sky has issued announcements to say they were looking into the postgame scuffle (which, curiously, referred to the Montana head coach as "Travis" and NAU coach Jack Murphy as "the head coach at Northern Arizona," but that's another issue for another time), a statement to say they suspended Coach Murphy for one game, and a statement to acknowledge a clock error in the Women's Tournament, but nothing on this incident as far as I can tell. (EDIT: According to this article from the Arizona Daily Sun, the Big Sky affirmed the call as being correct. Consider me unconvinced that there was no interference, as per the rest of my article).
Having written about the league for four years, I can tell you that perception among fans exists that schools like Montana and Weber State get the most favorable calls in the league, to the point that it's not uncommon to hear suggestions that the league is rooting for and doing what they can to give Montana a better chance to win. Let me be clear, I personally do not believe that is the case. But things like this certainly won't help to change that perception.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
However, it was such a big story, that I wanted to expand on my thoughts a little bit, and walk through why I feel what I feel. First off, in case you somehow missed it, here is the video:
This the angle I been waiting for. 😂😂😂 smh. pic.twitter.com/GwT5509BUS
— Neal Nieves (@NealNieves) March 14, 2015
According to what I have heard, the official explanation given to NAU is that no technical foul was called because there was no interference on the play.
It is my opinion, which has been strengthened after talking to Big Sky coaches, and hearing from all types of people associated with college basketball (there was widespread commentary even from national media after the game), that a technical foul not only should have been called, but needed to be called in that situation.
My points:
1) If NAU had thrown the ball in immediately after the basket, especially toward that direction of the court, then presumably that would have necessitated that there was proper interference for a technical foul to be called. Because they didn't, the refs claim there was no interference. But what if NAU didn't throw the ball in precisely BECAUSE there was a guy in street clothes on the court with time on the clock? If you saw that, would you throw the ball in, or would you wait for things to clear? To claim there is no interference appears to be awfully arbitrary.
2) After the Gregory basket, the refs stopped the game (no timeout was called according to the play by play), presumably both to check the clock, and check the replay of the guy running onto the court. If they stopped the game even in part to look at that, that's interference right there.
3) It appears that Edmonds was noted by NAU players, and could have added to some confusion from that side, which would constitute interference. If you watch the video, it appears the player in bounding the ball looked that direction first... Did he turn away because a guy in street clothes is on the court?
4) As noted in the comments here, it is also a major player safety issue. I don't think Edmonds scoped the scene out before rushing and diving back to the bench. If a player was in the way, that's a serious knee injury waiting to happen. Not calling a technical is one heck of a precedent to set.
5) Let's take it out of context... let's say there's an NCAA Tournament game, and the ball is on one side of the court. Let's then say that on the opposite bench, someone saunters halfway on the court and does something on the opposite end of the court (it could be anything: dance, bounce a ball, try to rile up the crowd), but he gets back to the bench before the game changes ends. In theory, he has not interfered with the play, but do you think that's going to stop the refs from giving him a technical foul?
An absurd example, maybe, but under the explanation given, how do you call something like that a technical but say this isn't a technical foul?
Now, it is important to note that the non-call did not necessarily win or lose the game. Even if a technical foul is called, Montana is still likely going to win. NAU would have sent Kris Yanku to the line, an 80% FT shooter. That would make it a 65% chance he makes both free throws, which would have sent the game to OT. Let's say NAU had a 35% chance of winning the OT, being on the road - that means that if a technical foul was called, there's still only a 22% chance to win. In most scenarios, Montana still advances. But the fact that we didn't get to find out what would have happened is, frankly, embarrassing.
I understand that nobody wants to see something like that happen - a game shouldn't be decided in part because a player on the bench had an emotional reaction to a great play. Everyone hates when that helps decide games. But you can't just choose when to selectively enforce the rules.
In the days that followed, the Big Sky has issued announcements to say they were looking into the postgame scuffle (which, curiously, referred to the Montana head coach as "Travis" and NAU coach Jack Murphy as "the head coach at Northern Arizona," but that's another issue for another time), a statement to say they suspended Coach Murphy for one game, and a statement to acknowledge a clock error in the Women's Tournament, but nothing on this incident as far as I can tell. (EDIT: According to this article from the Arizona Daily Sun, the Big Sky affirmed the call as being correct. Consider me unconvinced that there was no interference, as per the rest of my article).
Having written about the league for four years, I can tell you that perception among fans exists that schools like Montana and Weber State get the most favorable calls in the league, to the point that it's not uncommon to hear suggestions that the league is rooting for and doing what they can to give Montana a better chance to win. Let me be clear, I personally do not believe that is the case. But things like this certainly won't help to change that perception.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Montana, Northern Arizona, and Sac State in Postseason Tournaments
Eastern Washington is not the only team that will be dancing, as Montana, Northern Arizona, and Sac State also received invites to postseason tournaments.
Montana, by virtue of being the Big Sky regular season champion, got an automatic berth into the NIT. They will take on Texas A&M in the opening round, with their game on Tuesday night on ESPNU.
Meanwhile, Sac State will travel to Portland to take on the Pilots on Wednesday night in the CIT. In the same tournament, Northern Arizona will travel to take on Grand Canyon, also on Wednesday night.
Hopefully both will be able to extend their seasons and get a few more basketball games in!
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Montana, by virtue of being the Big Sky regular season champion, got an automatic berth into the NIT. They will take on Texas A&M in the opening round, with their game on Tuesday night on ESPNU.
Meanwhile, Sac State will travel to Portland to take on the Pilots on Wednesday night in the CIT. In the same tournament, Northern Arizona will travel to take on Grand Canyon, also on Wednesday night.
Hopefully both will be able to extend their seasons and get a few more basketball games in!
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Eastern Washington Is The Big Sky Champion
It was a classic Big Sky title game, with both teams looking to be in control at different times. In the end, it was Eastern Washington making a stunning comeback in the final five minutes to beat Montana and take home the Big Sky title.
Early on, Eastern Washington looked like the team with more energy, and they got off to a nice start, building an early 14-7 lead. They had some missed chances early, but were active defensively, and really attacking the basket, especially going right at Martin Breunig (trying to get him in foul trouble). However, Montana weathered the storm, and took a 30-29 lead into the half.
In the second half, it was the Mike Weisner show, as he had a career high 18 points. He hit big shots throughout the second half, and at times found himself guarding Tyler Harvey, and doing a good job. He was really outstanding. Martin Breunig was also really great all game long. He finished with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and did a nice job defensively as well. If Montana had help on to win, he would be the one getting all the accolades, and rightfully so. He was outstanding.
At the 6:18 mark, Montana hit a basket to go up 59-48, and the crowd was going nuts. It was then that Eastern Washington went into a full-court press, which seemed to fluster Montana. The score was 61-52 at around the four minute mark. Then, Drew Brandon got a bucket, and Montana was called for a five second call after the couldn't get the ball in. After the TV timeout, Tyler Harvey hit a three, and suddenly it was a four point game and Montana was reeling. All told, EWU went on a 21-4 run to close the game out, save for the garbage time bucket by the Grizzlies with a second left.
Tyler Harvey, the nation's leading scorer, was at his best down the stretch. At the six minute mark, he had just ten points, and didn't seem to have any openings (many kudos have to go to Mario Dunn of Montana, who was sensational defensively). He had eight points down the stretch, including an and-1 on a 15 footer from the baseline, which gave EWU a four point lead with 43 seconds left, and the Grizzlies were never able to get any closer.
Montana has had trouble closing out opponents this year - Against both Sac State and Idaho, they had win probabilities of 97%+ in the final three minutes. I mentioned this in one of my previews coming into the tournament, and it turned out to be the Achilles heel for the Grizzlies. That's a tough way to lose.
Two other EWU players should be noted in a recap about the game. One is Bogdan Bliznyuk, as the freshman was outstanding, finishing with 13 points and 5 rebounds. At times, he was the only Eagle capable of getting buckets, and he kept the game close early in the second half. His future is very bright, obviously. The other guy is Drew Brandon, who finished with 16 points and 7 rebounds. His shooting has been unsteady this year, but it was on point in this game. One other Montana player to note is Jordan Gregory, who was getting to the basket all night. What a Big Sky tournament he had.
From an NCAA tournament standpoint, Eastern Washington had the best resume in the Big Sky conference, which should hopefully push them up a few lines when the brackets are announced. It has been a wildly successful season for the Eagles, who capture their second Big Sky championship, and could be even better next season.
What a classic.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Early on, Eastern Washington looked like the team with more energy, and they got off to a nice start, building an early 14-7 lead. They had some missed chances early, but were active defensively, and really attacking the basket, especially going right at Martin Breunig (trying to get him in foul trouble). However, Montana weathered the storm, and took a 30-29 lead into the half.
In the second half, it was the Mike Weisner show, as he had a career high 18 points. He hit big shots throughout the second half, and at times found himself guarding Tyler Harvey, and doing a good job. He was really outstanding. Martin Breunig was also really great all game long. He finished with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and did a nice job defensively as well. If Montana had help on to win, he would be the one getting all the accolades, and rightfully so. He was outstanding.
At the 6:18 mark, Montana hit a basket to go up 59-48, and the crowd was going nuts. It was then that Eastern Washington went into a full-court press, which seemed to fluster Montana. The score was 61-52 at around the four minute mark. Then, Drew Brandon got a bucket, and Montana was called for a five second call after the couldn't get the ball in. After the TV timeout, Tyler Harvey hit a three, and suddenly it was a four point game and Montana was reeling. All told, EWU went on a 21-4 run to close the game out, save for the garbage time bucket by the Grizzlies with a second left.
Tyler Harvey, the nation's leading scorer, was at his best down the stretch. At the six minute mark, he had just ten points, and didn't seem to have any openings (many kudos have to go to Mario Dunn of Montana, who was sensational defensively). He had eight points down the stretch, including an and-1 on a 15 footer from the baseline, which gave EWU a four point lead with 43 seconds left, and the Grizzlies were never able to get any closer.
Montana has had trouble closing out opponents this year - Against both Sac State and Idaho, they had win probabilities of 97%+ in the final three minutes. I mentioned this in one of my previews coming into the tournament, and it turned out to be the Achilles heel for the Grizzlies. That's a tough way to lose.
Two other EWU players should be noted in a recap about the game. One is Bogdan Bliznyuk, as the freshman was outstanding, finishing with 13 points and 5 rebounds. At times, he was the only Eagle capable of getting buckets, and he kept the game close early in the second half. His future is very bright, obviously. The other guy is Drew Brandon, who finished with 16 points and 7 rebounds. His shooting has been unsteady this year, but it was on point in this game. One other Montana player to note is Jordan Gregory, who was getting to the basket all night. What a Big Sky tournament he had.
From an NCAA tournament standpoint, Eastern Washington had the best resume in the Big Sky conference, which should hopefully push them up a few lines when the brackets are announced. It has been a wildly successful season for the Eagles, who capture their second Big Sky championship, and could be even better next season.
What a classic.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Friday, March 13, 2015
Big Sky Statement on NAU/Montana Postgame Scuffle
After the postgame scuffle between Montana and Northern Arizona, the Big Sky has issued a postgame statement:
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
“First thing, I want to compliment the players,’’ Fullerton said. “The players as we watch them, there are no punches thrown, and they are breaking it up. They absolutely did a good job, both sets of players. The one thing people want to know about is (Montana coach) Travis (DeCuire). I see absolutely no action by Travis that would cause us to suspend him or cause any problems for Travis tomorrow. We’re still reviewing the head coach at Northern Arizona.’’
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Eastern Washington and Montana Advance to Big Sky Title Game
For the second straight day, we had some great games in the Big Sky tournament. First, the less complicated game, which was Eastern Washington taking down Sacramento State, winning their second straight game by a score of 91-83.
The EWU offense was as good as they have been at any point all year. In the first half, Sac State focused on Tyler Harvey, and held him to 0 points. The problem was that everyone else for EWU was firing on all cylinders. Felix Van Hofe hit five first half threes before finishing with 23 points. Bodgan Bliznyuk had 16 off the bench, and Venky Jois had 19.
Eastern Washington was 15/25 from downtown in this game, and finished with 1.25 PPP. You're going to win a lot of games like that. I said before the conference tournament that EWU had the highest ceiling of any team in the Big Sky, and they showed it in this game. If they play like that, they can and will beat Montana.
For Sac State, it's a bittersweet end to the season, but they have plenty to be proud about. They finish the best season in school history, Mikh McKinney was the league MVP, and Brian Katz the co- Coach of the Year. The senior class has elevated the program to a level that probably would have been unthinkable four years ago.
The Hornets were beaten by a better team on this day, but what a season it was.
-----
In the other semifinal game, Montana escaped for the second straight day, this time hanging on to beat Northern Arizona 61-59 on a game-winner from Jordan Gregory with 0.4 seconds left.
Kris Yanku hit two free throws to tie the game with 8.2 seconds left, and Gregory got the ball and went coast to coast, driving right by Quinton Upshur (who looked more concerned with not fouling than with stopping Gregory) for the tough lay-in. This has gotten lost a bit in all of the happenings post-game (we'll get to it in a moment), but what a great play by Gregory.
He knew just how much time he had, he didn't settle for an outside shot, and he got a good look at the rim. That is textbook. It's a shame it got overshadowed a bit, but we need to give him his due.
However, as mentioned, after the shot, pandemonium broke out. College Basketball Talk has the video and image, but after the shot, 0.4 seconds remained on the clock. However, a Montana assistant ran on the court, realized there was time left on the clock, ran back and literally dove back to the bench. The play was reviewed (either for that or to see how much time was left), and 0.4 seconds was put on the clock, but no technical foul was called.
In my opinion, the Grizzlies were very lucky to get out of there with no technical. To my eye, a technical foul should have been called. From that CBT article, here is the rule that potentially applies:
I understand you don't want a game to end in that way, or be impacted like that, but a rule is a rule. A technical foul should have been assessed. In talking to others around the league, I am not alone in this thinking.
EDIT: One report does say it was not an assistant coach, but a player who is sitting out this season that ran onto the court. That does seem to be the case. It doesn't change my mind on the play, but I should note that distinction.
EDIT 2: The Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton made a statement after the game saying that Travis DeCuire will not be suspended for anything, but that they are still looking into the actions of NAU coach Jack Murphy.
-----
So, I've said my part! Once again, it's a shame this is taking away from the game itself a bit, because it has nothing to do with the Grizzlies players. They deserved to win this game, and for the second straight day, they made enough plays down the stretch to get the win and advance.
This sets up a dream Big Sky championship matchup between Montana and Eastern Washington, who are the two best teams in the Big Sky for my money. The teams split their season series, and each won on the other team's home court. We'll be in for a classic.
Preview to come tomorrow.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
The EWU offense was as good as they have been at any point all year. In the first half, Sac State focused on Tyler Harvey, and held him to 0 points. The problem was that everyone else for EWU was firing on all cylinders. Felix Van Hofe hit five first half threes before finishing with 23 points. Bodgan Bliznyuk had 16 off the bench, and Venky Jois had 19.
Eastern Washington was 15/25 from downtown in this game, and finished with 1.25 PPP. You're going to win a lot of games like that. I said before the conference tournament that EWU had the highest ceiling of any team in the Big Sky, and they showed it in this game. If they play like that, they can and will beat Montana.
For Sac State, it's a bittersweet end to the season, but they have plenty to be proud about. They finish the best season in school history, Mikh McKinney was the league MVP, and Brian Katz the co- Coach of the Year. The senior class has elevated the program to a level that probably would have been unthinkable four years ago.
The Hornets were beaten by a better team on this day, but what a season it was.
-----
In the other semifinal game, Montana escaped for the second straight day, this time hanging on to beat Northern Arizona 61-59 on a game-winner from Jordan Gregory with 0.4 seconds left.
Kris Yanku hit two free throws to tie the game with 8.2 seconds left, and Gregory got the ball and went coast to coast, driving right by Quinton Upshur (who looked more concerned with not fouling than with stopping Gregory) for the tough lay-in. This has gotten lost a bit in all of the happenings post-game (we'll get to it in a moment), but what a great play by Gregory.
He knew just how much time he had, he didn't settle for an outside shot, and he got a good look at the rim. That is textbook. It's a shame it got overshadowed a bit, but we need to give him his due.
However, as mentioned, after the shot, pandemonium broke out. College Basketball Talk has the video and image, but after the shot, 0.4 seconds remained on the clock. However, a Montana assistant ran on the court, realized there was time left on the clock, ran back and literally dove back to the bench. The play was reviewed (either for that or to see how much time was left), and 0.4 seconds was put on the clock, but no technical foul was called.
In my opinion, the Grizzlies were very lucky to get out of there with no technical. To my eye, a technical foul should have been called. From that CBT article, here is the rule that potentially applies:
Assistant coaches and bench personnel. All bench personnel, with the exception of the head coach, are required to be seated on the bench while the ball is live except to react spontaneously to an outstanding play and then to immediately return to sitting on the bench. Violations by players, especially assistant coaches, should not be tolerated by officials. When assistant coaches or bench personnel are violating bench decorum rules in a minor way, the official shall inform the head coach and request that he handle the situation. This is an official warning. Any further violation by bench personnel shall result in a technical foul assessed to the offender. Egregious (blatant) conduct violations by assistant coaches or bench personnel need no warning and shall immediately result in a technical foul. A tehnical foul assessed to bench personnel is also assessed as a CLASS B technical foul to the head coach.I understand that it ultimately did not impact the game, which is the explanation that was given to Coach Jack Murphy. However, the only reason it didn't impact the game was because NAU happened to not throw the ball in right away (perhaps because there was an assistant coach on the floor?) To my eye, that crosses the arbitrary standard of being an egregious or blatant violation.
I understand you don't want a game to end in that way, or be impacted like that, but a rule is a rule. A technical foul should have been assessed. In talking to others around the league, I am not alone in this thinking.
EDIT: One report does say it was not an assistant coach, but a player who is sitting out this season that ran onto the court. That does seem to be the case. It doesn't change my mind on the play, but I should note that distinction.
EDIT 2: The Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton made a statement after the game saying that Travis DeCuire will not be suspended for anything, but that they are still looking into the actions of NAU coach Jack Murphy.
-----
So, I've said my part! Once again, it's a shame this is taking away from the game itself a bit, because it has nothing to do with the Grizzlies players. They deserved to win this game, and for the second straight day, they made enough plays down the stretch to get the win and advance.
This sets up a dream Big Sky championship matchup between Montana and Eastern Washington, who are the two best teams in the Big Sky for my money. The teams split their season series, and each won on the other team's home court. We'll be in for a classic.
Preview to come tomorrow.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Northern Arizona and Montana Survive to Advance
For all of the parity in the Big Sky this year, all of the top seeds will advance to the semifinals. However, it certainly wasn't easy!
Northern Arizona's win over Northern Colorado didn't generate any style points, but they controlled the game defensively to get the 63-57 victory and advance to the Big Sky semifinals.
UNC had just 0.97 PPP, as they shot 15/39 inside the arc and 5/22 beyond it. Good looks were nowhere to be had, even as they grabbed 17 offensive rebounds. Tim Huskisson had 15 and 10 in his final career game, but Tevin Svihovec was held to 13 points on 4/17 shooting, and the Bears didn't have enough scorers to pick up the slack.
The game was tight the whole way, but it always felt like NAU had things under control. It was a power game, as they had 14 offensive rebounds themselves, consistently looking to get the ball inside. Jordyn Martin had 4 offensive rebounds, but the real star down low was Len Springs, who finished with 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He was a force down low on both ends.
But the star of the second half for NAU, I thought, was Aaseem Dixon, who always seemed to hit a big bucket when the Jacks needed one. He finished the game with 16 points, including hitting four threes.
In the first two games of the day, it was the stars that took over and powered their teams. In this game, it was a full team effort as NAU does what they couldn't do last year - beat Northern Colorado in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament.
-----
In the nightcap, we got a classic battle between Montana and Weber State, though the refs seemed to do everything they could to slow the flow of the game. 47 fouls were called in this game, many of the ticky tack variety. The topper was in OT, where Ryan Richardson may have slightly bumped Mike Weisner 25 feet from the basket, and was called for his fifth foul. Both coaches got warnings from the refs by the end of the first half, and things were inconsistent throughout. The silver lining is that both teams had plenty of reason to be miffed many times over, so it's not like one team was consistently favored. And that is the last I will say about the reffing.
First, let's talk about Weber State, who played their best game of the year, putting all they had into this one but coming up just short. Jeremy Senglin missed a month with a broken jaw, and played a wonderful game, finishing with 25 points, many of them in big spots. Joel Bolomboy had 18 and 10, and battled Martin Brenig all game.
The Wildcats played great defense in the second half, making the Grizzlies work for everything. It would have been enough too, if it weren't for a tough loose ball foul on Bolomboy which sent Jordan Gregory to the foul line with 3.2 seconds left (re: that call... it was an unfortunate call on Weber, but I'm not sure it could have been called any other way).
For Montana, they survive and advance, which is the name of the game. They battled foul trouble for much of the second half, with Mario Dunn fouling out, and Breunig playing much of the end of the game with four fouls.
Still, Breunig was excellent in this game, finishing with 24 points and 12 rebounds. despite getting a ton of Weber attention. His offensive game is so diverse and impressive. He is a star.
Gregory struggled to get many good looks, but it is a testament to him that when he was fouled, down 2, with 3.2 seconds left, there was no doubt as to whether he was going to hit the shots. He did.
Weber State got Montana out of their game - the Grizzlies were 3/17 from downtown, and struggled to get contributions from many of their role players (Brandon Gfeller had 2 points on 0/5 FG), but they come away with the win. That sets up an NAU/Montana game which should be fascinating. They are the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky, and will look to attach each other in different ways. Hopefully it is a worthy follow up to this classic.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Northern Arizona's win over Northern Colorado didn't generate any style points, but they controlled the game defensively to get the 63-57 victory and advance to the Big Sky semifinals.
UNC had just 0.97 PPP, as they shot 15/39 inside the arc and 5/22 beyond it. Good looks were nowhere to be had, even as they grabbed 17 offensive rebounds. Tim Huskisson had 15 and 10 in his final career game, but Tevin Svihovec was held to 13 points on 4/17 shooting, and the Bears didn't have enough scorers to pick up the slack.
The game was tight the whole way, but it always felt like NAU had things under control. It was a power game, as they had 14 offensive rebounds themselves, consistently looking to get the ball inside. Jordyn Martin had 4 offensive rebounds, but the real star down low was Len Springs, who finished with 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He was a force down low on both ends.
But the star of the second half for NAU, I thought, was Aaseem Dixon, who always seemed to hit a big bucket when the Jacks needed one. He finished the game with 16 points, including hitting four threes.
In the first two games of the day, it was the stars that took over and powered their teams. In this game, it was a full team effort as NAU does what they couldn't do last year - beat Northern Colorado in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament.
-----
In the nightcap, we got a classic battle between Montana and Weber State, though the refs seemed to do everything they could to slow the flow of the game. 47 fouls were called in this game, many of the ticky tack variety. The topper was in OT, where Ryan Richardson may have slightly bumped Mike Weisner 25 feet from the basket, and was called for his fifth foul. Both coaches got warnings from the refs by the end of the first half, and things were inconsistent throughout. The silver lining is that both teams had plenty of reason to be miffed many times over, so it's not like one team was consistently favored. And that is the last I will say about the reffing.
First, let's talk about Weber State, who played their best game of the year, putting all they had into this one but coming up just short. Jeremy Senglin missed a month with a broken jaw, and played a wonderful game, finishing with 25 points, many of them in big spots. Joel Bolomboy had 18 and 10, and battled Martin Brenig all game.
The Wildcats played great defense in the second half, making the Grizzlies work for everything. It would have been enough too, if it weren't for a tough loose ball foul on Bolomboy which sent Jordan Gregory to the foul line with 3.2 seconds left (re: that call... it was an unfortunate call on Weber, but I'm not sure it could have been called any other way).
For Montana, they survive and advance, which is the name of the game. They battled foul trouble for much of the second half, with Mario Dunn fouling out, and Breunig playing much of the end of the game with four fouls.
Still, Breunig was excellent in this game, finishing with 24 points and 12 rebounds. despite getting a ton of Weber attention. His offensive game is so diverse and impressive. He is a star.
Gregory struggled to get many good looks, but it is a testament to him that when he was fouled, down 2, with 3.2 seconds left, there was no doubt as to whether he was going to hit the shots. He did.
Weber State got Montana out of their game - the Grizzlies were 3/17 from downtown, and struggled to get contributions from many of their role players (Brandon Gfeller had 2 points on 0/5 FG), but they come away with the win. That sets up an NAU/Montana game which should be fascinating. They are the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky, and will look to attach each other in different ways. Hopefully it is a worthy follow up to this classic.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Big Sky Tournament Predictions
After looking at all of the teams yesterday, and their respective chances to win the Big Sky tournmament, let's get to something more concrete - previews of the games themselves, along with some predictions.
I'll go into more detail on the quartefinal games, and then give me predictions for the subsequent rounds in less detail (since there's no need to go deep in depth for matchups that may or may not happen). Without further ado...
Quarterfinals
#1 Montana vs #8 Weber State
Previous Meeting(s): Weber won 68-60 in Ogden, Montana won 74-63 in Missoula
Thoughts: Jeremy Senglin missed the second meeting, so Weber State's best chance will be to follow what happened in the first meeting. In that game, Martin Breunig was dominant (31 points on 14/18 shooting), but the Wildcats did a good job containing everyone else. The rest of the team shot 10/37 for 29 points, including a 4/18 effort from Jordan Gregory. Breunig has abused Weber in both games, so they may not have a easy time stopping him. Their best bet may be to just single him up with Joel Bolomboy, and stick to the rest of Montana's shooters as close as they can. A guy like Brandon Gfeller can rack up some points in a hurry if he gets good looks, and that could be the type of thing Weber State can't come back from.
The bigger factor, I think, will be the other end of the court, where Weber State doesn't figure to have a ton of success against the Montana defense. Nobody has been better at forcing turnovers in the Big Sky, but WSU has been the second most generous team in giving them up. Getting Senglin back could help that, but he's also had a tendency to turn it over. As I mentioned yesterday, the easiest way to beat Montana could be to get Breunig into foul trouble, and Bolomboy has had some success drawing fouls this year (he takes over 5.5 FTs per game). However, I just don't see the Wildcats getting enough open looks against the Griz, especially since this game is in Missoula.
Montana 71, Weber State 60
#4 Northern Arizona vs #5 Northern Colorado
Previous Meeting(s): NAU won 65-60 in Flagstaff, UNC won 76-74 in Greeley
Thoughts: I watched these two teams in Greeley a couple weeks ago and it was a great game, so it will be fun to watch again. When UNC has the ball, it will come down to who is able to play more to their strengths. NAU doesn't give you good looks in the paint, and they typically rebound the ball well. On the other hand, UNC excels in the midrange and using their quickness to get good shots at the rim, and they can be terrors on the offensive glass. In Greeley, they snagged 14 offensive rebounds, which Jack Murphy believed to be the difference in the game. In the first meeting, they only had six. That is a key thing to watch.
On the other end, The Bears have had trouble containing Kris Yanku, and that will likely continue. UNC is at its best with either Jordan Wilson or Cody Spence out there (or even both, at times), but both guys struggle with the height of Yanku. On the other hand, someone like Tevin Svihovec doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of him. If the Bears collapse on him in the paint, Yanku has the vision and passing skills to take advantage, with shooters on the outside, and guys capable of finishing strong at the rim. It will be a pick your poison type of scenario for UNC, and I expect Yanku to put up big numbers either way.
This should be a great game, as both teams are capable of going on runs and winning this game. However, I trust NAU just a little bit more.
Northern Arizona 73, Northern Colorado 69
#2 Eastern Washington vs #7 Idaho
Previous Meetings(s): EWU won 89-86 in Moscow, and 98-95 in Cheney
Thoughts: As you can tell from the previous game scores, we should be in for a fun, fast paced game. Where teams like Northern Colorado or Sacramento State are great offensively but don't try to push the pace, both the Eagles and Vandals are excellent scoring the ball AND like to push it as fast as they can. Plus, they can have their defensive struggles at times as well (though one more than the other).
The Vandals keeping both meetings close points to the fact that they can win this game, but the Eagles are clearly the favorite as they have more consistently played at a high level. EWU is primarily seen a three-point bombing team, but they have been better this year when they've gotten the ball inside, with guys like Venky Jois and Bogdan Bliznyuk being elite scorers down low. Idaho is also not intimidating down low either, as while guys like Bira Seck and Ark Mkrtychyan are good players, they aren't rim protectors. Look for EWU to get the ball inside as much as they can.
When Idaho has the ball, they need to be hitting outside shots, especially against an Eagles front line that has the best shot blockers in the conference. Fortunately for them, they are certainly capable of doing that, as they shot 40.9% from downtown during Big Sky play, third in the conference. The Vandals aren't going to force many turnovers, but they should look for easy options off of EWU misses, as easy baskets will be important. However, I'm not sure they'll get enough stops to be able to keep up.
Eastern Washington 88, Idaho 83
#3 Sacramento State vs #6 Portland State
Previous Meeting(s): Sac State won 64-60 in Sacramento, and 73-60 in Portland
Thoughts: The availability of Braxton Tucker will be important here, as he scored 18 in the first meeting, but missed the second game. A front line with Tucker and Tiegbe Bamba could be a huge weapon for the Vikings. Collin Spickerman can do some nice things for the Vikings (namely, block shots and crash the offensive glass), but the other two guys are the front line scorers. Tucker has missed the last three games with a knee contusion, and should probably be considered questionable. Another key for them is to take care of the basketball. PSU has been good at protecting the ball, but have struggled against Sac State, where they have turned it over 17 times in both meetings. There are scoring opportunities to be had against the Hornets, but they are also good at forcing TOs, so that will be a key.
When Sac State has the ball, they are an interesting team in that they have the best three-point shooting team in the conference, but they don't look to take a ton of threes. Everything starts with Mikh McKinney, who does it all for the Hornets. McKinney will get his, but they can't let him get great looks for everyone else. The Vikings aren't going to force a lot of turnovers, so it comes down to closing in on shooters such as Dylan Garrity, and cutting off the penetration of McKinney and Cody Demps. All three guys are capable of scoring 20.
In the end, if I was a betting man, I think the most likely scenario is that Sac State wins a close game. However, I think at least one of the lower seeds win (with how even this league has been all year), and I think this is the most likely game. If PSU can take care of the ball (again, has been an issue against the Hornets), they can score enough to win this game. It should be fun.
Portland State 69, Sacramento State 68
Semifinals
#1 Montana vs #4 Northern Arizona
This would be a slugfest of a semifinal, featuring the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. During their only meeting in late January, NAU scored 0.89 PPP, while Montana mustered 1.00 PPP thanks to 31 points from Jordan Gregory. NAU has the horses down low (including Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin) to slow down Martin Breunig, but Montana has Mario Dunn to help contain Kris Yanku. Once again, I like the home court to triumph, and I'd take Montana.
#2 Eastern Washington vs #6 Portland State
These teams split during the regular season, so it's a closer game than the seeds might show. However, Venky Jois missed the second meeting (when PSU won), and we are starting to realize he may be the Eagles most important player with his offensive scoring and shot blocking ability. That would make the difference in the third meeting, and I like Eastern Washington in this theoretical matchup.
Championship
#1 Montana vs #2 Eastern Washington
In terms of entertainment factor, this is probably our dream finals matchup. The two teams split their meetings, winning on each other's home courts. As mentioned, Montana is the favorite with their home-court advantage, but EWU is a team that can combat the strengths of the Grizzlies. Venky Jois is down low, and he bothered Breunig in their first matchup (in fairness, Breunig was a force in the rematch). The other thing is that, as we've mentioned, Montana excels at forcing turnovers, but EWU is predicated on taking care of the ball... Their 19 turnovers in the two meetings combined is not bad. So, they can score on the Grizzlies.
However, I just can't shake the feeling that Montana is the best team in the Big Sky right now. Jordan Gregory is the go to guy late in games, and it's nice to have that pecking order. We've talked about Breunig. Mario Dunn could be a future defensive POY. Guys like Brandon Gfeller, Fabijan Krslovic, and Mike Weisner all fill their roles. Everything is coming up Montana for me, and that's why I think they will be the Big Sky champions.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
I'll go into more detail on the quartefinal games, and then give me predictions for the subsequent rounds in less detail (since there's no need to go deep in depth for matchups that may or may not happen). Without further ado...
Quarterfinals
#1 Montana vs #8 Weber State
Previous Meeting(s): Weber won 68-60 in Ogden, Montana won 74-63 in Missoula
Thoughts: Jeremy Senglin missed the second meeting, so Weber State's best chance will be to follow what happened in the first meeting. In that game, Martin Breunig was dominant (31 points on 14/18 shooting), but the Wildcats did a good job containing everyone else. The rest of the team shot 10/37 for 29 points, including a 4/18 effort from Jordan Gregory. Breunig has abused Weber in both games, so they may not have a easy time stopping him. Their best bet may be to just single him up with Joel Bolomboy, and stick to the rest of Montana's shooters as close as they can. A guy like Brandon Gfeller can rack up some points in a hurry if he gets good looks, and that could be the type of thing Weber State can't come back from.
The bigger factor, I think, will be the other end of the court, where Weber State doesn't figure to have a ton of success against the Montana defense. Nobody has been better at forcing turnovers in the Big Sky, but WSU has been the second most generous team in giving them up. Getting Senglin back could help that, but he's also had a tendency to turn it over. As I mentioned yesterday, the easiest way to beat Montana could be to get Breunig into foul trouble, and Bolomboy has had some success drawing fouls this year (he takes over 5.5 FTs per game). However, I just don't see the Wildcats getting enough open looks against the Griz, especially since this game is in Missoula.
Montana 71, Weber State 60
#4 Northern Arizona vs #5 Northern Colorado
Previous Meeting(s): NAU won 65-60 in Flagstaff, UNC won 76-74 in Greeley
Thoughts: I watched these two teams in Greeley a couple weeks ago and it was a great game, so it will be fun to watch again. When UNC has the ball, it will come down to who is able to play more to their strengths. NAU doesn't give you good looks in the paint, and they typically rebound the ball well. On the other hand, UNC excels in the midrange and using their quickness to get good shots at the rim, and they can be terrors on the offensive glass. In Greeley, they snagged 14 offensive rebounds, which Jack Murphy believed to be the difference in the game. In the first meeting, they only had six. That is a key thing to watch.
On the other end, The Bears have had trouble containing Kris Yanku, and that will likely continue. UNC is at its best with either Jordan Wilson or Cody Spence out there (or even both, at times), but both guys struggle with the height of Yanku. On the other hand, someone like Tevin Svihovec doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of him. If the Bears collapse on him in the paint, Yanku has the vision and passing skills to take advantage, with shooters on the outside, and guys capable of finishing strong at the rim. It will be a pick your poison type of scenario for UNC, and I expect Yanku to put up big numbers either way.
This should be a great game, as both teams are capable of going on runs and winning this game. However, I trust NAU just a little bit more.
Northern Arizona 73, Northern Colorado 69
#2 Eastern Washington vs #7 Idaho
Previous Meetings(s): EWU won 89-86 in Moscow, and 98-95 in Cheney
Thoughts: As you can tell from the previous game scores, we should be in for a fun, fast paced game. Where teams like Northern Colorado or Sacramento State are great offensively but don't try to push the pace, both the Eagles and Vandals are excellent scoring the ball AND like to push it as fast as they can. Plus, they can have their defensive struggles at times as well (though one more than the other).
The Vandals keeping both meetings close points to the fact that they can win this game, but the Eagles are clearly the favorite as they have more consistently played at a high level. EWU is primarily seen a three-point bombing team, but they have been better this year when they've gotten the ball inside, with guys like Venky Jois and Bogdan Bliznyuk being elite scorers down low. Idaho is also not intimidating down low either, as while guys like Bira Seck and Ark Mkrtychyan are good players, they aren't rim protectors. Look for EWU to get the ball inside as much as they can.
When Idaho has the ball, they need to be hitting outside shots, especially against an Eagles front line that has the best shot blockers in the conference. Fortunately for them, they are certainly capable of doing that, as they shot 40.9% from downtown during Big Sky play, third in the conference. The Vandals aren't going to force many turnovers, but they should look for easy options off of EWU misses, as easy baskets will be important. However, I'm not sure they'll get enough stops to be able to keep up.
Eastern Washington 88, Idaho 83
#3 Sacramento State vs #6 Portland State
Previous Meeting(s): Sac State won 64-60 in Sacramento, and 73-60 in Portland
Thoughts: The availability of Braxton Tucker will be important here, as he scored 18 in the first meeting, but missed the second game. A front line with Tucker and Tiegbe Bamba could be a huge weapon for the Vikings. Collin Spickerman can do some nice things for the Vikings (namely, block shots and crash the offensive glass), but the other two guys are the front line scorers. Tucker has missed the last three games with a knee contusion, and should probably be considered questionable. Another key for them is to take care of the basketball. PSU has been good at protecting the ball, but have struggled against Sac State, where they have turned it over 17 times in both meetings. There are scoring opportunities to be had against the Hornets, but they are also good at forcing TOs, so that will be a key.
When Sac State has the ball, they are an interesting team in that they have the best three-point shooting team in the conference, but they don't look to take a ton of threes. Everything starts with Mikh McKinney, who does it all for the Hornets. McKinney will get his, but they can't let him get great looks for everyone else. The Vikings aren't going to force a lot of turnovers, so it comes down to closing in on shooters such as Dylan Garrity, and cutting off the penetration of McKinney and Cody Demps. All three guys are capable of scoring 20.
In the end, if I was a betting man, I think the most likely scenario is that Sac State wins a close game. However, I think at least one of the lower seeds win (with how even this league has been all year), and I think this is the most likely game. If PSU can take care of the ball (again, has been an issue against the Hornets), they can score enough to win this game. It should be fun.
Portland State 69, Sacramento State 68
Semifinals
#1 Montana vs #4 Northern Arizona
This would be a slugfest of a semifinal, featuring the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. During their only meeting in late January, NAU scored 0.89 PPP, while Montana mustered 1.00 PPP thanks to 31 points from Jordan Gregory. NAU has the horses down low (including Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin) to slow down Martin Breunig, but Montana has Mario Dunn to help contain Kris Yanku. Once again, I like the home court to triumph, and I'd take Montana.
#2 Eastern Washington vs #6 Portland State
These teams split during the regular season, so it's a closer game than the seeds might show. However, Venky Jois missed the second meeting (when PSU won), and we are starting to realize he may be the Eagles most important player with his offensive scoring and shot blocking ability. That would make the difference in the third meeting, and I like Eastern Washington in this theoretical matchup.
Championship
#1 Montana vs #2 Eastern Washington
In terms of entertainment factor, this is probably our dream finals matchup. The two teams split their meetings, winning on each other's home courts. As mentioned, Montana is the favorite with their home-court advantage, but EWU is a team that can combat the strengths of the Grizzlies. Venky Jois is down low, and he bothered Breunig in their first matchup (in fairness, Breunig was a force in the rematch). The other thing is that, as we've mentioned, Montana excels at forcing turnovers, but EWU is predicated on taking care of the ball... Their 19 turnovers in the two meetings combined is not bad. So, they can score on the Grizzlies.
However, I just can't shake the feeling that Montana is the best team in the Big Sky right now. Jordan Gregory is the go to guy late in games, and it's nice to have that pecking order. We've talked about Breunig. Mario Dunn could be a future defensive POY. Guys like Brandon Gfeller, Fabijan Krslovic, and Mike Weisner all fill their roles. Everything is coming up Montana for me, and that's why I think they will be the Big Sky champions.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Big Sky Tournament Teams - Quick Preview
Before we get to the previews of the games themselves, let's take a quick rundown of each of the teams, and why they could either win the whole tournament, or lose in the first round. It's a wide open race this year, which should make it fun!
#1 Montana
Why they can win it: For one, they have home court advantage. The Grizzlies were 8-1 at home during Big Sky play, losing just to EWU on February 5th. The Grizzlies are also playing the best basketball of anyuone in the Big Sky the past few weeks... after that loss to EWU on 2/5, they went 7-1, with the only loss coming in double OT at Idaho (a game they had a 97.2% chance to win with 3:24 left).
They are also the best defensive team in the Big Sky, at 0.998 PPP during conference play. Their 0.12 PPP margin in Big Sky play is easily the best in the conference. Tying it all together, the Griz have a luxury in Martin Breunig that is rare in the Big Sky - a big man with a solid offensive skill set. He was a unanimous first-teamer and you could easily make the case for him as Big Sky POY.
Let me put it this way... If Sac State had finished with a win and hosted, Montana still might have been the favorite to win the conference. As it is, they are clearly the favorite going into things. In early February, I said Montana was a definite contender (unintentionally angering Sac State fans in the process), but they came on stronger than I ever expected.
Why they can lose in round 1: In two of their four Big Sky losses, they had big leads late, and lost it at the end. Such that that is a trend, they could struggle to hold onto leads.With it happening in just two games, it would be far too strong to say they have a tendency to blow late leads, but it's out there. The biggest concern for them, I think, is that Martin Breunig can get into foul trouble. In both of the aforementioned games, he fouled out. While Jordan Gregory is very good, and they have role players that can do some nice things, everything is harder when Breunig is not out there. Losing him to foul trouble early in a game could be the clearest path to a loss for them.
#2 Eastern Washington
Why they can win it: The Eagles pose the best chance of beating Montana, as they did it once and almost did it again. The Grizzlies have been great at forcing turnovers, but EWU can take care of the ball, and Venky Jois can match up with Breunig down low. That would be a heck of a title game!
The Eagles have shown they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Sky, as they had some big road wins earlier in the year, and have looked downright unstoppable offensively at times. We all know about Tyler Harvey and Venky Jois, but Bogdan Bliznyk is a legit weapon, Drew Brandon does a bit of everything, and Parker Kelly can shoot. Even Felix Van Hofe has hit some big shots. They are tough to defend because they almost always have five guys out there that can score.
Why they can lose in round 1: A lot of this has been due to injuries at times, but they haven't quite seemed to be playing to their peak over the second half of conference play. Save for a date with MSU on 2/26, all of their other last eight games were either within four points or went to OT. That shows some close losses, but an elite team should be able to blow out a couple of those teams. As always, the key for them is defense. They finished fifth at 1.08 PPP allowed in conference play, but teams shot 42% from downtown against them. If their own shots aren't falling, they need to be able to rely on the D to pick up the slack for a while before the offense gets rolling again. It remains to be seen if they can do that.
#3 Sacramento State
Why they can win it: Until the last week, they looked like they would be the hosts of the tournament, so obviously they have the talent to be near the top. They have been great in close games, and while it's debatable if that is a repeatable skill, all the checkpoints are there for them to be good late in games, including experienced guards, a big time shooter in Dylan Garrity, the Big Sky POY Mikh McKinney, and a worthy third fiddle in Cody Demps.
McKinney is the biggest reason to think they can win... no matter if you think he should or shouldn't have been the POY, he has been great all year. He can shoot, drive to the hole, find his teammates, and make plays on the defensive side of the court. He can do it all, and that elite player gives the Hornets a shot every time.
Why they can lose in round 1: In the last section, I wrote about success and experience in close games, but that may have made them a little overrated at times, as winning close games can statistically be fluky. For all the hope that Eric Stuteville would provide consistent inside presence, that hasn't really happened this year, which leaves them too reliant on their guards. That can also be a problem defensively, as guys like Nick Hornsby and Zach Mills are good players, but not really great interior forces defensively. The other factor for the Hornets is the way the season ended... They needed one win in the final two games to host the tournament, and plans were in place to convert the rec center on campus for the Big Sky tournament - and then things came crashing down. Will there be a hangover for their confidence?
#4 Northern Arizona
Why they can win it: After Montana, they have the best defense in the conference, and the ability to get stops seems to translate better to tournaments when scouting time may be at a minimum. They are anchored by Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin, but they have several big bodies down low.
Offensively, Kris Yanku is playing great basketball, and nobody is better than him at driving and dishing, or driving to finish. He has a great understanding of pace and angles, which allows him to get to the rim almost at any time. Late in a close game, he is the best weapon in the conference. Flanking him are shooters Quinton Upshur and Aaseem Dixon. Those two guys struggled a bit earlier in the year, but have played better in the second half of the Big Sky slate.
Why they can lose in round 1: While Yanku is a great shot creator, the offense can stagnant a bit if he is not out there, as Upshur and Dixon can be limited at times in creating shots for themselves or offense for others. If the outside shots aren't falling, they can struggle to score. Another issue is depth... They only go 8 deep, and don't really like to play many guards. It could be easy to wear down. Last, they always seem to have trouble with UNC... they lost to them last year in the opening round, and lost to them in Greeley just a couple weeks ago. It's a tough opener if the Bears are playing well, which they always seem to do in the Big Sky tournament.
#5 Northern Colorado
Why they can win it: They have tons of depth and balance, meaning they could be able to weather the storm better than some if their main guys struggle. Tevin Svihovec was the only member of the team to get into postseason awards but guys like Cam Michael and Tim Huskisson have the ability to carry the offense for stretches. Another thing is that their defense has been bad this year, but they have guys like Cody Spence and Jordan Wilson that can pressure you for 94 feet, which places extra pressure on defense, especially in a tournament when teams might be a little tighter.
Their offense can be as explosive as anyone in the conference, and if some of their role players get hot for a couple games, they could carry the momentum from it right into the NCAA Tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: The balance is great, but they don't necessarily have that one guy that can carry them and get them a good shot when it's needed. Tevin Svihovec is that guy at times, but you don't necessarily trust him as much as guys like Jordan Gregory, Tyler Harvey, Miki McKinney, or Kris Yanku. But really, the biggest worry here is defense, just like always. In terms of PPP allowed, they were the second worst defensive team in the country. It's hard to win three games in three days like that.
#6 Portland State
Why they can win it: In conference play, they beat EWU on the road... and also lost at home in double digits on three occasions. Point being - they are unpredictable. On any given night, they can beat anyone, which can make them dangerous. If Braxton Tucker plays (still trying to find out), their front line is as explosive as anyone, and a backcourt with Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins can score baskets. With a trio of senior guards, they take good care of the basketball and don't give opponents extra possessions. Their talent level, when all healthy and playing right, gives them the ceiling of a team that can win this tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: As mentioned above, they are very unpredictable, and prone to games where they just don't seem to come out and play. This is not just a problem for this year's team, as it seems to have happened previous years as well. If they don't play their best, they will lose in the opening round to Sac State. Their defense is not the gaping liability it has been in some past years, but it's still not one you trust to get a stop when you need. Also, unlike previous years, their offense has been merely average in Big Sky play. It's easier to see a path for teams like UNC or Idaho in the bottom half of the bracket to make a run than it is to see the Vikings string three straight great games together.
#7 Idaho
Why they can win it: Like PSU, the Vandals are a team with a high ceiling - they beat Montana, Sac State, and almost beat EWU twice. They are explosive offensively when things are working, from Mike Scott creating shots for himself and others, Connor Hill as one of the best shooters in the conference, and Sekou Wiggs getting to the foul line. They are never out of a game because of how well they can score the basketball.
They also don't get intimidated by anyone. They averaged almost 90 PPG against EWU, arguably should have beat Sac State on the road, and of course had that great comeback against Montana. They don't have to just believe they can beat the best teams in the conference - they know they can. That counts for a lot.
Why they can lose in round 1: Despite all those impressive showings against good teams, they were a Southern Utah win over Portland State on the final day of the regular season away from missing the Big Sky tournament. To call them inconsistent would be an insult to the word "inconsistent." They lack rim protectors so they struggle stopping teams inside, which could lead to a big day from Venky Jois in the tournament opening round. I am as fascinated by them as anyone - I can't wait to see which Idaho team shows up, because they could crash the party,. They could also go out in a fiery crash.
#8 Weber State
Why they can win it: Things have not come together for the Wildcats this year, but it's not like they don't have talent. They were the preseason pick to win the conference, and all those pieces that made voters vote for them are still there. If Jeremy Senglin is able to come back and play (which seems like a safe bet), that's a huge boost for the Wildcats and their offense. When healthy, he's their best offensive guy, and their best chance for an outlier performance. Weber also has Joel Bolomboy, who still has the ability to take over games with his rebounding and shot blocking. For all of Weber's struggles, they finished third in the conference in defensive deficiency.
Plus, let's not remember that Weber State is the defending champions. Though they are missing a lot of those guys that made it happen, many in the rotation played huge minutes for a title winning team last season. Last, for what it's worth, they did beat Montana earlier this year... granted, it was two months ago.
Why they can lose in round 1: For one thing, they are playing Montana at Montana. They are seven point underdogs, and even that line feels a little bit low to me. When the two teams met in late February, the Grizzlies won by 11. They have struggled to score the basketball even when Senglin has been healthy, and the finished eighth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency. Often, when underdog teams win games they aren't expected to, it happens through shooting. However, Weber was 11th in the Big Sky, shooting just 34.5% from downtown during conference play. If they get hot and shoot the lights out for three straight games, it won't be something that could have been expected.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
#1 Montana
Why they can win it: For one, they have home court advantage. The Grizzlies were 8-1 at home during Big Sky play, losing just to EWU on February 5th. The Grizzlies are also playing the best basketball of anyuone in the Big Sky the past few weeks... after that loss to EWU on 2/5, they went 7-1, with the only loss coming in double OT at Idaho (a game they had a 97.2% chance to win with 3:24 left).
They are also the best defensive team in the Big Sky, at 0.998 PPP during conference play. Their 0.12 PPP margin in Big Sky play is easily the best in the conference. Tying it all together, the Griz have a luxury in Martin Breunig that is rare in the Big Sky - a big man with a solid offensive skill set. He was a unanimous first-teamer and you could easily make the case for him as Big Sky POY.
Let me put it this way... If Sac State had finished with a win and hosted, Montana still might have been the favorite to win the conference. As it is, they are clearly the favorite going into things. In early February, I said Montana was a definite contender (unintentionally angering Sac State fans in the process), but they came on stronger than I ever expected.
Why they can lose in round 1: In two of their four Big Sky losses, they had big leads late, and lost it at the end. Such that that is a trend, they could struggle to hold onto leads.With it happening in just two games, it would be far too strong to say they have a tendency to blow late leads, but it's out there. The biggest concern for them, I think, is that Martin Breunig can get into foul trouble. In both of the aforementioned games, he fouled out. While Jordan Gregory is very good, and they have role players that can do some nice things, everything is harder when Breunig is not out there. Losing him to foul trouble early in a game could be the clearest path to a loss for them.
#2 Eastern Washington
Why they can win it: The Eagles pose the best chance of beating Montana, as they did it once and almost did it again. The Grizzlies have been great at forcing turnovers, but EWU can take care of the ball, and Venky Jois can match up with Breunig down low. That would be a heck of a title game!
The Eagles have shown they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Sky, as they had some big road wins earlier in the year, and have looked downright unstoppable offensively at times. We all know about Tyler Harvey and Venky Jois, but Bogdan Bliznyk is a legit weapon, Drew Brandon does a bit of everything, and Parker Kelly can shoot. Even Felix Van Hofe has hit some big shots. They are tough to defend because they almost always have five guys out there that can score.
Why they can lose in round 1: A lot of this has been due to injuries at times, but they haven't quite seemed to be playing to their peak over the second half of conference play. Save for a date with MSU on 2/26, all of their other last eight games were either within four points or went to OT. That shows some close losses, but an elite team should be able to blow out a couple of those teams. As always, the key for them is defense. They finished fifth at 1.08 PPP allowed in conference play, but teams shot 42% from downtown against them. If their own shots aren't falling, they need to be able to rely on the D to pick up the slack for a while before the offense gets rolling again. It remains to be seen if they can do that.
#3 Sacramento State
Why they can win it: Until the last week, they looked like they would be the hosts of the tournament, so obviously they have the talent to be near the top. They have been great in close games, and while it's debatable if that is a repeatable skill, all the checkpoints are there for them to be good late in games, including experienced guards, a big time shooter in Dylan Garrity, the Big Sky POY Mikh McKinney, and a worthy third fiddle in Cody Demps.
McKinney is the biggest reason to think they can win... no matter if you think he should or shouldn't have been the POY, he has been great all year. He can shoot, drive to the hole, find his teammates, and make plays on the defensive side of the court. He can do it all, and that elite player gives the Hornets a shot every time.
Why they can lose in round 1: In the last section, I wrote about success and experience in close games, but that may have made them a little overrated at times, as winning close games can statistically be fluky. For all the hope that Eric Stuteville would provide consistent inside presence, that hasn't really happened this year, which leaves them too reliant on their guards. That can also be a problem defensively, as guys like Nick Hornsby and Zach Mills are good players, but not really great interior forces defensively. The other factor for the Hornets is the way the season ended... They needed one win in the final two games to host the tournament, and plans were in place to convert the rec center on campus for the Big Sky tournament - and then things came crashing down. Will there be a hangover for their confidence?
#4 Northern Arizona
Why they can win it: After Montana, they have the best defense in the conference, and the ability to get stops seems to translate better to tournaments when scouting time may be at a minimum. They are anchored by Big Sky Defensive POY Jordyn Martin, but they have several big bodies down low.
Offensively, Kris Yanku is playing great basketball, and nobody is better than him at driving and dishing, or driving to finish. He has a great understanding of pace and angles, which allows him to get to the rim almost at any time. Late in a close game, he is the best weapon in the conference. Flanking him are shooters Quinton Upshur and Aaseem Dixon. Those two guys struggled a bit earlier in the year, but have played better in the second half of the Big Sky slate.
Why they can lose in round 1: While Yanku is a great shot creator, the offense can stagnant a bit if he is not out there, as Upshur and Dixon can be limited at times in creating shots for themselves or offense for others. If the outside shots aren't falling, they can struggle to score. Another issue is depth... They only go 8 deep, and don't really like to play many guards. It could be easy to wear down. Last, they always seem to have trouble with UNC... they lost to them last year in the opening round, and lost to them in Greeley just a couple weeks ago. It's a tough opener if the Bears are playing well, which they always seem to do in the Big Sky tournament.
#5 Northern Colorado
Why they can win it: They have tons of depth and balance, meaning they could be able to weather the storm better than some if their main guys struggle. Tevin Svihovec was the only member of the team to get into postseason awards but guys like Cam Michael and Tim Huskisson have the ability to carry the offense for stretches. Another thing is that their defense has been bad this year, but they have guys like Cody Spence and Jordan Wilson that can pressure you for 94 feet, which places extra pressure on defense, especially in a tournament when teams might be a little tighter.
Their offense can be as explosive as anyone in the conference, and if some of their role players get hot for a couple games, they could carry the momentum from it right into the NCAA Tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: The balance is great, but they don't necessarily have that one guy that can carry them and get them a good shot when it's needed. Tevin Svihovec is that guy at times, but you don't necessarily trust him as much as guys like Jordan Gregory, Tyler Harvey, Miki McKinney, or Kris Yanku. But really, the biggest worry here is defense, just like always. In terms of PPP allowed, they were the second worst defensive team in the country. It's hard to win three games in three days like that.
#6 Portland State
Why they can win it: In conference play, they beat EWU on the road... and also lost at home in double digits on three occasions. Point being - they are unpredictable. On any given night, they can beat anyone, which can make them dangerous. If Braxton Tucker plays (still trying to find out), their front line is as explosive as anyone, and a backcourt with Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins can score baskets. With a trio of senior guards, they take good care of the basketball and don't give opponents extra possessions. Their talent level, when all healthy and playing right, gives them the ceiling of a team that can win this tournament.
Why they can lose in round 1: As mentioned above, they are very unpredictable, and prone to games where they just don't seem to come out and play. This is not just a problem for this year's team, as it seems to have happened previous years as well. If they don't play their best, they will lose in the opening round to Sac State. Their defense is not the gaping liability it has been in some past years, but it's still not one you trust to get a stop when you need. Also, unlike previous years, their offense has been merely average in Big Sky play. It's easier to see a path for teams like UNC or Idaho in the bottom half of the bracket to make a run than it is to see the Vikings string three straight great games together.
#7 Idaho
Why they can win it: Like PSU, the Vandals are a team with a high ceiling - they beat Montana, Sac State, and almost beat EWU twice. They are explosive offensively when things are working, from Mike Scott creating shots for himself and others, Connor Hill as one of the best shooters in the conference, and Sekou Wiggs getting to the foul line. They are never out of a game because of how well they can score the basketball.
They also don't get intimidated by anyone. They averaged almost 90 PPG against EWU, arguably should have beat Sac State on the road, and of course had that great comeback against Montana. They don't have to just believe they can beat the best teams in the conference - they know they can. That counts for a lot.
Why they can lose in round 1: Despite all those impressive showings against good teams, they were a Southern Utah win over Portland State on the final day of the regular season away from missing the Big Sky tournament. To call them inconsistent would be an insult to the word "inconsistent." They lack rim protectors so they struggle stopping teams inside, which could lead to a big day from Venky Jois in the tournament opening round. I am as fascinated by them as anyone - I can't wait to see which Idaho team shows up, because they could crash the party,. They could also go out in a fiery crash.
#8 Weber State
Why they can win it: Things have not come together for the Wildcats this year, but it's not like they don't have talent. They were the preseason pick to win the conference, and all those pieces that made voters vote for them are still there. If Jeremy Senglin is able to come back and play (which seems like a safe bet), that's a huge boost for the Wildcats and their offense. When healthy, he's their best offensive guy, and their best chance for an outlier performance. Weber also has Joel Bolomboy, who still has the ability to take over games with his rebounding and shot blocking. For all of Weber's struggles, they finished third in the conference in defensive deficiency.
Plus, let's not remember that Weber State is the defending champions. Though they are missing a lot of those guys that made it happen, many in the rotation played huge minutes for a title winning team last season. Last, for what it's worth, they did beat Montana earlier this year... granted, it was two months ago.
Why they can lose in round 1: For one thing, they are playing Montana at Montana. They are seven point underdogs, and even that line feels a little bit low to me. When the two teams met in late February, the Grizzlies won by 11. They have struggled to score the basketball even when Senglin has been healthy, and the finished eighth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency. Often, when underdog teams win games they aren't expected to, it happens through shooting. However, Weber was 11th in the Big Sky, shooting just 34.5% from downtown during conference play. If they get hot and shoot the lights out for three straight games, it won't be something that could have been expected.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Big Sky Awards Announced
As you know by now, Montana and Eastern Washington are the co-champions in the Big Sky, with Montana earning the right to host thanks to a tiebreaker victories. Sac State's hearts were broken by a Kris Yanku runner, ending their dreams of hosting the tournament.
At the back end of the bracket, Weber State and Idaho did what they could to lose their spots by losing on Saturday, but got bailed out when Portland State went on the road and beat Southern Utah, saving a spot for both the Wildcats and Thunderbirds. It was a great Saturday of basketball!
The first-round matchups are:
(1) Montana vs (8) Weber State
(2) Eastern Washington vs (7) Idaho
(3) Sacramento State vs (6) Portland State
(4) Northern Arizona vs (5) Northern Colorado
That is a great slate of matchups! I will have much more to come this week in terms of previews and predictions, I am just getting back into the swing of things after being out of town all weekend.
The other news was the release of the awards!
Here is the first-team Big Sky:
- Mikh McKinney of Sacramento State
- Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington
- Martin Breunig of Montana
- Venky Jois of Eastern Washington
- Kris Yanku of Northern Arizona
- Jordan Gregory of Montana
McKinney was the Player of the Year, in a mild surprise (I thought it may be Breunig because of Montana's spot in the standings). On first thought, without digging into things too much, I can't disagree with any of the choices, including the pick of McKinney as POY. That is very well deserved! I will give more thoughts and awards and all-conference teams next week once the conference tourney talk dies down.
The second-team Big Sky:
- Connor Hill of Idaho
- Mike Scott of Idaho
- Joel Bolomboy of Weber State
- Dylan Garrity of Sacramento State
- Quinton Upshur of Northern Arizona
Honorable-Mention Big Sky:
- Jeffrey Solarin of Idaho State
- Drew Brandon of Eastern Washington
- Chris Hansen of Idaho State
- Mario Dunn of Montana
- Aaseem Dixon of Northern Arizona
- Tevin Svihovec of Northern Colorado
- DaShaun Wiggins of Portland State
- Jeremy Senglin of Weber State
In the other awards, Bogdan Blizynuk was the Freshman of the Year, which was an easy choice. Jordyn Martin was the Defensive POY, which was a little surprise because he doesn't block shots (and numbers usually win awards), but it was a very good choice, as he anchors their D. Marcus Colbert was the Top Reserve, another good choice.
Jim Hayford and Brian Katz shared Coach of the Year honors. I can't argue with those guys, and I couldn't have argued if Travis DeCuire or Nick Robinson had won the award either, as all of those guys were worthy.
Any thoughts?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
At the back end of the bracket, Weber State and Idaho did what they could to lose their spots by losing on Saturday, but got bailed out when Portland State went on the road and beat Southern Utah, saving a spot for both the Wildcats and Thunderbirds. It was a great Saturday of basketball!
The first-round matchups are:
(1) Montana vs (8) Weber State
(2) Eastern Washington vs (7) Idaho
(3) Sacramento State vs (6) Portland State
(4) Northern Arizona vs (5) Northern Colorado
That is a great slate of matchups! I will have much more to come this week in terms of previews and predictions, I am just getting back into the swing of things after being out of town all weekend.
The other news was the release of the awards!
Here is the first-team Big Sky:
- Mikh McKinney of Sacramento State
- Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington
- Martin Breunig of Montana
- Venky Jois of Eastern Washington
- Kris Yanku of Northern Arizona
- Jordan Gregory of Montana
McKinney was the Player of the Year, in a mild surprise (I thought it may be Breunig because of Montana's spot in the standings). On first thought, without digging into things too much, I can't disagree with any of the choices, including the pick of McKinney as POY. That is very well deserved! I will give more thoughts and awards and all-conference teams next week once the conference tourney talk dies down.
The second-team Big Sky:
- Connor Hill of Idaho
- Mike Scott of Idaho
- Joel Bolomboy of Weber State
- Dylan Garrity of Sacramento State
- Quinton Upshur of Northern Arizona
Honorable-Mention Big Sky:
- Jeffrey Solarin of Idaho State
- Drew Brandon of Eastern Washington
- Chris Hansen of Idaho State
- Mario Dunn of Montana
- Aaseem Dixon of Northern Arizona
- Tevin Svihovec of Northern Colorado
- DaShaun Wiggins of Portland State
- Jeremy Senglin of Weber State
In the other awards, Bogdan Blizynuk was the Freshman of the Year, which was an easy choice. Jordyn Martin was the Defensive POY, which was a little surprise because he doesn't block shots (and numbers usually win awards), but it was a very good choice, as he anchors their D. Marcus Colbert was the Top Reserve, another good choice.
Jim Hayford and Brian Katz shared Coach of the Year honors. I can't argue with those guys, and I couldn't have argued if Travis DeCuire or Nick Robinson had won the award either, as all of those guys were worthy.
Any thoughts?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Friday, March 6, 2015
Big Sky Tiebreaker Scenarios
There are many, many scenarios in the Big Sky for Saturday, with a lot of different ways teams could be seeded in one place or another. I'm not going to try and hit on all of them, but I'll try to hit the main things that can happen.
One note of caution: Don't take this as Gospel truth. Obviously, I'm trying to be as accurate as possible, and not state anything incorrectly, but with so many scenarios, feel free to double check my work!
As far as I can tell, the race to host the conference tournament is down to three teams after Sacramento State's loss on Thursday - the Hornets can still win, as can Eastern Washington or Montana. Based on my analysis (which I'll say shortly), I don't believe Northern Arizona can host the tournament.
There are a few scenarios that are pretty clear cut in terms of determining the host of the Big Sky tournament:
- If Sac State beats NAU, they host the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU wins, Montana loses - then EWU hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana wins - then Montana hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana loses - then we would have a four way tie, with four teams at five losses. Oddly, this scenario is easy to figure out, because all four teams would be tied, you would just look at the records in the game between the teams. In that case, based on my understanding, Sac State would be the 1 seed, followed by Northern Arizona, followed by Montana, and EWU as the four seed.
[UPDATE: I have changed this section around as I have learned some new information]
The last possible scenario is that Sac State loses, but EWU and Montana both win. In that case, the Grizzlies and Eagles are tied at 14-4, while the Jacks and Hornets would be tied at 13-5.
EWU and Montana both split, which is the first tiebreaker. Then, the next tiebreaker would be the winning percentage against the next collective group. In that case, Montana would be the host, because they went 1-1 against NAU/Sac, while EWU went 1-2 against them. That would give Montana the tiebreaker, and they would host.
Then, Sac State would be third and NAU fourth, since the Hornets were 1-0 against Montana, while the Jacks were 0-1.
---
Northern Colorado is the best bet for the fifth seed because they just need a win, and they've got it. If they lose, in possible head to head ties for the fifth seed, they would beat Weber State, but lose to Idaho. If they are simply tied with Portland State, the tiebreaker winner would depend on the order of the top seeds, as they split the season series.
Weber State, Portland State, and Idaho are all into the tournament with a win or Southern Utah loss, but could potentially still miss the tournament if they lose and SUU wins.
Southern Utah is actually in pretty decent shape if they beat Portland State. They hold the tiebreaker over Weber State (who they beat twice) and Idaho (who they beat in their only meeting). SUU fans should also be rooting for Sac State to win - now that they have a win over the Hornets, that would help them in a tiebreaker against Portland State, should it come to that, since SUU is 1-1 against the Hornets, but PSU is 0-2.
EDIT: After poking around a bit more, I think Southern Utah is in if they win.
Since SUU plays PSU, if they win, there would be four other scenarios involving Weber State/Idaho and a tie for the final spot:
- Idaho wins, Weber State wins - In this case, SUU and Portland State would be tied at 8-10. They split the season series, so then things would get tricky. From my understanding, SUU would do better if it came down to Sac State being the definitive team, because they are 1-1 against the Hornets, while the Vikings are 0-2. PSU would get the advantage if EWU was the tiebreaker... BUT, EWU cannot be the definitive tiebreaker, because if they win, that means Weber State has lost, and Weber State would be the odd man out. So in the scenario of Idaho and Weber State both winning, that would leave Portland State out of the tournament.
- Idaho wins, Weber State loses - This would bring about a 3-way tie between Weber, PSU, and SUU. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 3-1, PSU 2-1, Weber State 0-3, so Weber State would miss out.
- Idaho loses, Weber State wins - This would bring a 3-way tie between SUU, PSU, and Idaho. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 2-1, PSU 2-2, and Idaho 1-2, so Idaho would miss the tournament.
- Idaho loses, Weber State loses - This would bring about a four way tie at 8-10. In the record between the four teams, SUU would be 4-1, PSU 3-2, Idaho 2-3, and WSU 1-4. That would leave Weber State as the odd team out.
That is a quick rundown of things... by no means comprehensive, but hopefully I've hit the key points. If you have any more specific questions, please let me know and I will try and answer them. I will try to update some more scenarios in the race for the final spot if I am able to get more time today.
Also, a programming note... I will unfortunately be out of town this weekend, as we are traveling for a baptism... So, I will try and post on Sunday, and hopefully tweet here and there, but I'm not sure how that will look. Either way, I'll have lots of coverage next week on everything Big Sky tournament related.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
One note of caution: Don't take this as Gospel truth. Obviously, I'm trying to be as accurate as possible, and not state anything incorrectly, but with so many scenarios, feel free to double check my work!
As far as I can tell, the race to host the conference tournament is down to three teams after Sacramento State's loss on Thursday - the Hornets can still win, as can Eastern Washington or Montana. Based on my analysis (which I'll say shortly), I don't believe Northern Arizona can host the tournament.
There are a few scenarios that are pretty clear cut in terms of determining the host of the Big Sky tournament:
- If Sac State beats NAU, they host the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU wins, Montana loses - then EWU hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana wins - then Montana hosts the tournament.
- If Sac State loses, EWU loses, Montana loses - then we would have a four way tie, with four teams at five losses. Oddly, this scenario is easy to figure out, because all four teams would be tied, you would just look at the records in the game between the teams. In that case, based on my understanding, Sac State would be the 1 seed, followed by Northern Arizona, followed by Montana, and EWU as the four seed.
[UPDATE: I have changed this section around as I have learned some new information]
The last possible scenario is that Sac State loses, but EWU and Montana both win. In that case, the Grizzlies and Eagles are tied at 14-4, while the Jacks and Hornets would be tied at 13-5.
EWU and Montana both split, which is the first tiebreaker. Then, the next tiebreaker would be the winning percentage against the next collective group. In that case, Montana would be the host, because they went 1-1 against NAU/Sac, while EWU went 1-2 against them. That would give Montana the tiebreaker, and they would host.
Then, Sac State would be third and NAU fourth, since the Hornets were 1-0 against Montana, while the Jacks were 0-1.
---
Northern Colorado is the best bet for the fifth seed because they just need a win, and they've got it. If they lose, in possible head to head ties for the fifth seed, they would beat Weber State, but lose to Idaho. If they are simply tied with Portland State, the tiebreaker winner would depend on the order of the top seeds, as they split the season series.
Weber State, Portland State, and Idaho are all into the tournament with a win or Southern Utah loss, but could potentially still miss the tournament if they lose and SUU wins.
Southern Utah is actually in pretty decent shape if they beat Portland State. They hold the tiebreaker over Weber State (who they beat twice) and Idaho (who they beat in their only meeting). SUU fans should also be rooting for Sac State to win - now that they have a win over the Hornets, that would help them in a tiebreaker against Portland State, should it come to that, since SUU is 1-1 against the Hornets, but PSU is 0-2.
EDIT: After poking around a bit more, I think Southern Utah is in if they win.
Since SUU plays PSU, if they win, there would be four other scenarios involving Weber State/Idaho and a tie for the final spot:
- Idaho wins, Weber State wins - In this case, SUU and Portland State would be tied at 8-10. They split the season series, so then things would get tricky. From my understanding, SUU would do better if it came down to Sac State being the definitive team, because they are 1-1 against the Hornets, while the Vikings are 0-2. PSU would get the advantage if EWU was the tiebreaker... BUT, EWU cannot be the definitive tiebreaker, because if they win, that means Weber State has lost, and Weber State would be the odd man out. So in the scenario of Idaho and Weber State both winning, that would leave Portland State out of the tournament.
- Idaho wins, Weber State loses - This would bring about a 3-way tie between Weber, PSU, and SUU. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 3-1, PSU 2-1, Weber State 0-3, so Weber State would miss out.
- Idaho loses, Weber State wins - This would bring a 3-way tie between SUU, PSU, and Idaho. In the record in games between the three, SUU would be 2-1, PSU 2-2, and Idaho 1-2, so Idaho would miss the tournament.
- Idaho loses, Weber State loses - This would bring about a four way tie at 8-10. In the record between the four teams, SUU would be 4-1, PSU 3-2, Idaho 2-3, and WSU 1-4. That would leave Weber State as the odd team out.
That is a quick rundown of things... by no means comprehensive, but hopefully I've hit the key points. If you have any more specific questions, please let me know and I will try and answer them. I will try to update some more scenarios in the race for the final spot if I am able to get more time today.
Also, a programming note... I will unfortunately be out of town this weekend, as we are traveling for a baptism... So, I will try and post on Sunday, and hopefully tweet here and there, but I'm not sure how that will look. Either way, I'll have lots of coverage next week on everything Big Sky tournament related.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Sacramento State is One Win Away From Hosting Big Sky Tournament
I will have more to say about the games Saturday, and how things look heading into the final week of regular season... but for now, I wanted to point out that after Saturday, things at the top of the conference have resolved themselves potentially in an easy to understand way.
Saturday could not have got any better for Sacramento State. Montana beat Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado beat Northern Arizona, and then the Hornets themselves took care of business by going on the road to beat Portland State.
That sets up this - with just one victory in their final two games, Sacramento State will be hosting the Big Sky tournament. Pretty heady stuff for a program that has not had a winning season since entering the DI ranks in the 1991-92 season*.
The tiebreakers work like this - Sacramento State and Eastern Washington split their season series, so if they tie, the next tiebreak will be how they fared against the third place team, which will be Montana (NAU can tie Montana, but Montana would hold the tiebreaker over NAU). In that case, Sac State beat Montana, while EWU split with the Grizzlies, which would give the Hornets the tiebreaker advantage.
If they tie with Montana, then they win the tiebreaker by virtue of the head to head. If all three teams would tie, then the common records advantage goes to Sac State - again by virtue of their win over Montana. Basically, that one point, comeback win is going to be the tiebreaker trump card.
Now, a win is not a foregone conclusion. The Hornets go on the road to take on Southern Utah, who has plenty to play for themselves (they trail Weber State by one game for the eighth spot, but they do own the tiebreak), and then follow it up with a road game at Northern Arizona, where they will likely be an underdog. The path is not easy.
But, they do know that with one more win in the final two games, they will be hosting the Big Sky tournament.
*An earlier version of this post said they entered DI in the late 80s, but that has been corrected.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Saturday could not have got any better for Sacramento State. Montana beat Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado beat Northern Arizona, and then the Hornets themselves took care of business by going on the road to beat Portland State.
That sets up this - with just one victory in their final two games, Sacramento State will be hosting the Big Sky tournament. Pretty heady stuff for a program that has not had a winning season since entering the DI ranks in the 1991-92 season*.
The tiebreakers work like this - Sacramento State and Eastern Washington split their season series, so if they tie, the next tiebreak will be how they fared against the third place team, which will be Montana (NAU can tie Montana, but Montana would hold the tiebreaker over NAU). In that case, Sac State beat Montana, while EWU split with the Grizzlies, which would give the Hornets the tiebreaker advantage.
If they tie with Montana, then they win the tiebreaker by virtue of the head to head. If all three teams would tie, then the common records advantage goes to Sac State - again by virtue of their win over Montana. Basically, that one point, comeback win is going to be the tiebreaker trump card.
Now, a win is not a foregone conclusion. The Hornets go on the road to take on Southern Utah, who has plenty to play for themselves (they trail Weber State by one game for the eighth spot, but they do own the tiebreak), and then follow it up with a road game at Northern Arizona, where they will likely be an underdog. The path is not easy.
But, they do know that with one more win in the final two games, they will be hosting the Big Sky tournament.
*An earlier version of this post said they entered DI in the late 80s, but that has been corrected.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Friday, February 27, 2015
Idaho Outlasts Montana in Double OT
There were four games last night, but the most interesting both on the court and off the court (with its ramifications) was Idaho's double OT win over Montana.
Travis DeCuire had to be having flashbacks to Sacramento, because this one played out in a similar fashion. In that game, Montana had a 97.0% win probability with 3:03 to play. Against Idaho, they had a 97.2% win probability with 3:24 left, and found a way to lose once again.
The Grizzlies were in control much of the way, but the Vandals went on a 10-1 run to close out regulation, sending the game to OT when Mike Scott hit two free throws with 1.7 seconds left. In the first OT, it was Montana who needed the heroics, as a late Jordan Gregory three tied the game up to give us more free basketball. But in the second OT, Idaho's offense could not be stopped, as they scored 22 points in that five minute session to get the win.
There are no shortage of guys that played well for Idaho, but a guy that really stuck out to me was freshman Arkadiy Mkrtychyan. He finished with 15 points (including 9/10 FT), and had 6 rebounds. It's not the best stat line on the team, but he impresses with his nose for the ball, and ability to make big plays at big moments. In regulation, Bira Seck got fouled down 3, and shot the 1-and-1. He missed the front end, but Ark got the offensive board, got fouled, and then hit both free throws. That is a huge play for anyone, let alone a freshman.
Jordan Gregory led the way for the Grizzlies with 36 points, but he did miss a big free throw down the stretch. With Montana up 3 and about 15 seconds left in the second half, he missed the front end of a 1-and-1, keeping the Vandals alive. Still, overall, he was sensational, carrying the offense. Martin Breunig fouled out, which is somewhat of a theme for him... he is outstanding, but often finds himself in foul trouble.
With the win, Idaho should be all but into the tournament, and of course they have shown with their play against top teams this year that they will be very dangerous. The win officially knocks Montana State out of the tournament, with Idaho State and North Dakota on life support. It also dampens Southern Utah's hopes a bit, after their loss to Northern Colorado.
For Montana, they almost certainly won't be hosting the Big Sky tournament. How you feel about them beyond that is probably open to interpretation. On the one hand, you can read into it that they can't hold onto leads, and struggle at the end of close games. Personally, I find them to be just as dangerous today as they seemed to be yesterday. They struggled in close games... but they also went on the road and had two good teams (Sac State and Idaho) on the ropes. They aren't likely to make those same mistakes again.
It's going to be a great Big Sky tournament.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Travis DeCuire had to be having flashbacks to Sacramento, because this one played out in a similar fashion. In that game, Montana had a 97.0% win probability with 3:03 to play. Against Idaho, they had a 97.2% win probability with 3:24 left, and found a way to lose once again.
The Grizzlies were in control much of the way, but the Vandals went on a 10-1 run to close out regulation, sending the game to OT when Mike Scott hit two free throws with 1.7 seconds left. In the first OT, it was Montana who needed the heroics, as a late Jordan Gregory three tied the game up to give us more free basketball. But in the second OT, Idaho's offense could not be stopped, as they scored 22 points in that five minute session to get the win.
There are no shortage of guys that played well for Idaho, but a guy that really stuck out to me was freshman Arkadiy Mkrtychyan. He finished with 15 points (including 9/10 FT), and had 6 rebounds. It's not the best stat line on the team, but he impresses with his nose for the ball, and ability to make big plays at big moments. In regulation, Bira Seck got fouled down 3, and shot the 1-and-1. He missed the front end, but Ark got the offensive board, got fouled, and then hit both free throws. That is a huge play for anyone, let alone a freshman.
Jordan Gregory led the way for the Grizzlies with 36 points, but he did miss a big free throw down the stretch. With Montana up 3 and about 15 seconds left in the second half, he missed the front end of a 1-and-1, keeping the Vandals alive. Still, overall, he was sensational, carrying the offense. Martin Breunig fouled out, which is somewhat of a theme for him... he is outstanding, but often finds himself in foul trouble.
With the win, Idaho should be all but into the tournament, and of course they have shown with their play against top teams this year that they will be very dangerous. The win officially knocks Montana State out of the tournament, with Idaho State and North Dakota on life support. It also dampens Southern Utah's hopes a bit, after their loss to Northern Colorado.
For Montana, they almost certainly won't be hosting the Big Sky tournament. How you feel about them beyond that is probably open to interpretation. On the one hand, you can read into it that they can't hold onto leads, and struggle at the end of close games. Personally, I find them to be just as dangerous today as they seemed to be yesterday. They struggled in close games... but they also went on the road and had two good teams (Sac State and Idaho) on the ropes. They aren't likely to make those same mistakes again.
It's going to be a great Big Sky tournament.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Thursday Night Predictions
Four games on tap Thursday night, and we know the importance of games on the title race, and on the race to make the conference tournament. Let's take a look.
Montana @ Idaho
This is a huge game for many reasons. For one, with a loss, Idaho suddenly finds itself right on the bubble for the last conference tourney spot. For Montana, the implications are obvious, if they win this, it sets up a huge game on Saturday in Cheney. In these teams first meeting in Missoula, the Grizzlies limited the Vandals to just 0.90 PPP, as Idaho wasn't able to get free for any outside looks. That will be key, because of Idaho's offense is generated via the three-point shot (about 36% of their points come via it). Since this is in Moscow, it will be a battle, but Montana is just playing better basketball right now. I expect this one to be close, but I trust the Grizzlies to pull it out. Montana 73, Idaho 70
Montana State @ Eastern Washington
In some sense, this could be a trap game for the Eagles, because they play Montana on Saturday, and because MSU has been playing pretty solidly as of late. However, I don't think it will play out that way for a few reasons. For one, it's in Cheney, and that should help. Two, the Eagles know how important every game is for the title hopes. Three, they haven't been playing great basketball the last couple of weeks, so they know how susceptible they are. I think they handle this game fairly easily. Eastern Washington 79, Montana State 70
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota
NAU knows it still has a chance to win the conference crown, but a tough two-game roadtrip begins in Grand Forks. The Jacks shooting can come and go, but their best attribute offensively is their ability to crash the offensive glass, which is something UND has to watch for. But the story of this game, I think, will be on the other end, where NAU should be able to suffocate UND, not given them any second chances, and restrict opportunities in the paint. That is why I like the Jacks in this game. Northern Arizona 66, North Dakota 61
Southern Utah @ Northern Colorado
A win for SUU would put them in a tie with Weber State (and possibly Idaho) for the final tournament spot, so the stakes are quite clear for them. They go against a UNC team that is struggling badly right now, but always plays a lot better at home. This should be a fun game. The TBirds love to put you on the foul line, but drawing fouls and getting to the line isn't necessarily a strength for UNC. The game is most interesting if only because we never know what we'll see from UNC. However, I think the desperation of playing at home, being under .500 in Big Sky play, and having lost four straight games will help. Northern Colorado 81, Southern Utah 74
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Montana @ Idaho
This is a huge game for many reasons. For one, with a loss, Idaho suddenly finds itself right on the bubble for the last conference tourney spot. For Montana, the implications are obvious, if they win this, it sets up a huge game on Saturday in Cheney. In these teams first meeting in Missoula, the Grizzlies limited the Vandals to just 0.90 PPP, as Idaho wasn't able to get free for any outside looks. That will be key, because of Idaho's offense is generated via the three-point shot (about 36% of their points come via it). Since this is in Moscow, it will be a battle, but Montana is just playing better basketball right now. I expect this one to be close, but I trust the Grizzlies to pull it out. Montana 73, Idaho 70
Montana State @ Eastern Washington
In some sense, this could be a trap game for the Eagles, because they play Montana on Saturday, and because MSU has been playing pretty solidly as of late. However, I don't think it will play out that way for a few reasons. For one, it's in Cheney, and that should help. Two, the Eagles know how important every game is for the title hopes. Three, they haven't been playing great basketball the last couple of weeks, so they know how susceptible they are. I think they handle this game fairly easily. Eastern Washington 79, Montana State 70
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota
NAU knows it still has a chance to win the conference crown, but a tough two-game roadtrip begins in Grand Forks. The Jacks shooting can come and go, but their best attribute offensively is their ability to crash the offensive glass, which is something UND has to watch for. But the story of this game, I think, will be on the other end, where NAU should be able to suffocate UND, not given them any second chances, and restrict opportunities in the paint. That is why I like the Jacks in this game. Northern Arizona 66, North Dakota 61
Southern Utah @ Northern Colorado
A win for SUU would put them in a tie with Weber State (and possibly Idaho) for the final tournament spot, so the stakes are quite clear for them. They go against a UNC team that is struggling badly right now, but always plays a lot better at home. This should be a fun game. The TBirds love to put you on the foul line, but drawing fouls and getting to the line isn't necessarily a strength for UNC. The game is most interesting if only because we never know what we'll see from UNC. However, I think the desperation of playing at home, being under .500 in Big Sky play, and having lost four straight games will help. Northern Colorado 81, Southern Utah 74
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Conference Title Race
We have two weeks left in the season, and each team has either three or four games left to play. As things are looking, we have a great race at the top of the Big Sky, with four teams having legitimate chances for the conference title. The standings are as follows:
Montana 12-3
Sacramento State 12-3
Eastern Washington 11-3
Northern Arizona 10-4
Let's break things down a few different ways to see how things might shake out when all is said and done.
The Numbers:
When it comes to numbers, KenPom is my go to, and I use the site all the time. Currently, his methodology rates EWU as the best team of the group (144th best team in the country), and projects them to finish 14-4. He has Montana as the second best team (161st best in the nation), and has them at 13-5. The ratings actually show NAU as being a slightly better team than Sac State, but has the Hornets finishing 13-5 and the Lumberjacks at 12-6.
The only issue I have with these rankings is that they go based on the whole season, and lately, EWU has not looked as good as they did earlier in the year. I think they have the highest ceiling of any of these four teams, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be the team to win the conference.
Here are the points per possession for and against during conference play (interpret how you will):
- Eastern Washington - 1.151 PPP (2nd in Big Sky), 1.09 PPP allowed (7th)
- Sacramento State - 1.152 PPP (1st), 1.09 PPP allowed (8th)
- Montana - 1.11 PPP (6th), 0.98 PPP allowed (1st)
- Northern Arizona - 1.08 PPP (7th), 1.01 PPP allowed (2nd)
For reference, the best offense in the country (Wisconsin) has an AdjO of 1.24 PPP, while the best defense in the country (Virginia) is alloweing 0.84 PPP.
The Schedules:
Here is the remaining schedules for the teams:
- Montana - at Idaho, at Eastern Washington, at Montana State
- Sacramento State - at Portland State, at Northern Arizona, at Southern Utah
- Eastern Washington - Montana State, Montana, at Idaho State, at Weber State
- Northern Arizona - at North Dakota, at Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State
Of those four schedules, I'd want EWU's the most, since they have two home games, and then two road games against more winnable competition. Both Montana and Sac State finish with three road games (of the two, I'd rather have Sac State's schedule, but neither is easy). NAU doesn't have a particularly easy slate either. as UND and UNC are both tough places to win, and obviously both of their homes games are against top 5 teams.
Head to Head:
Head to head is the first tiebreaker... At this point in the year, I'm not going to compare the secondary tiebreakers, because there is too much that can change since a lot of them depend on who else you lose to, and where they fall in the standings. That analysis will come at a later date. For now, let's look at how these teams have performed against each other.
- Montana - 1-0 vs NAU, 0-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs EWU with a game remaining
- Sac State - 1-1 vs EWU, 1-0 vs Montana, 1-0 vs NAU with a game remaining
- Eastern Washington - 1-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs NAU, 1-0 vs Montana with a game remaining
- Northern Arizona - 1-0 vs EWU, 0-1 vs Montana, 0-1 vs Sac State with a game remaining
It's hard to tell who things favor, because it just depends on who you are tied up with. This isn't necessarily useful for now, but something to keep an eye on, or if you are a fan of one of the teams, you know who you might want to root for more than others (for example, a Sac State fan would rather be tied with Montana than EWU, since you know you win the tiebreaker against them).
My Thoughts:
While Northern Arizona would be a great story, they are unlikely to win it since they are a loss behind everyone else. They need to win out, and while that is possible, I wouldn't call it likely.
Eastern Washington is a game behind the other two teams in the win column, but they should get to that 12th win on Thursday when they host Montana State. From there, I think they are the best bet to win the title, because all of their games are wins on paper. Montana will likely be favored to lose to EWU, and their game at Idaho is probably about a pick'em. Meanwhile, Sac State will probably be favored to lose at NAU, and their game at PSU is probably about a pick'em.
So, add it all up, and I like Eastern Washington as the most likely host of the Big Sky tournament, followed by Sacramento State, and then Montana, and then Northern Arizona.
Of course, all four of these teams have a very real chance, which will make it a fun race down the stretch? What does everyone else think?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Montana 12-3
Sacramento State 12-3
Eastern Washington 11-3
Northern Arizona 10-4
Let's break things down a few different ways to see how things might shake out when all is said and done.
The Numbers:
When it comes to numbers, KenPom is my go to, and I use the site all the time. Currently, his methodology rates EWU as the best team of the group (144th best team in the country), and projects them to finish 14-4. He has Montana as the second best team (161st best in the nation), and has them at 13-5. The ratings actually show NAU as being a slightly better team than Sac State, but has the Hornets finishing 13-5 and the Lumberjacks at 12-6.
The only issue I have with these rankings is that they go based on the whole season, and lately, EWU has not looked as good as they did earlier in the year. I think they have the highest ceiling of any of these four teams, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be the team to win the conference.
Here are the points per possession for and against during conference play (interpret how you will):
- Eastern Washington - 1.151 PPP (2nd in Big Sky), 1.09 PPP allowed (7th)
- Sacramento State - 1.152 PPP (1st), 1.09 PPP allowed (8th)
- Montana - 1.11 PPP (6th), 0.98 PPP allowed (1st)
- Northern Arizona - 1.08 PPP (7th), 1.01 PPP allowed (2nd)
For reference, the best offense in the country (Wisconsin) has an AdjO of 1.24 PPP, while the best defense in the country (Virginia) is alloweing 0.84 PPP.
The Schedules:
Here is the remaining schedules for the teams:
- Montana - at Idaho, at Eastern Washington, at Montana State
- Sacramento State - at Portland State, at Northern Arizona, at Southern Utah
- Eastern Washington - Montana State, Montana, at Idaho State, at Weber State
- Northern Arizona - at North Dakota, at Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State
Of those four schedules, I'd want EWU's the most, since they have two home games, and then two road games against more winnable competition. Both Montana and Sac State finish with three road games (of the two, I'd rather have Sac State's schedule, but neither is easy). NAU doesn't have a particularly easy slate either. as UND and UNC are both tough places to win, and obviously both of their homes games are against top 5 teams.
Head to Head:
Head to head is the first tiebreaker... At this point in the year, I'm not going to compare the secondary tiebreakers, because there is too much that can change since a lot of them depend on who else you lose to, and where they fall in the standings. That analysis will come at a later date. For now, let's look at how these teams have performed against each other.
- Montana - 1-0 vs NAU, 0-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs EWU with a game remaining
- Sac State - 1-1 vs EWU, 1-0 vs Montana, 1-0 vs NAU with a game remaining
- Eastern Washington - 1-1 vs Sac State, 0-1 vs NAU, 1-0 vs Montana with a game remaining
- Northern Arizona - 1-0 vs EWU, 0-1 vs Montana, 0-1 vs Sac State with a game remaining
It's hard to tell who things favor, because it just depends on who you are tied up with. This isn't necessarily useful for now, but something to keep an eye on, or if you are a fan of one of the teams, you know who you might want to root for more than others (for example, a Sac State fan would rather be tied with Montana than EWU, since you know you win the tiebreaker against them).
My Thoughts:
While Northern Arizona would be a great story, they are unlikely to win it since they are a loss behind everyone else. They need to win out, and while that is possible, I wouldn't call it likely.
Eastern Washington is a game behind the other two teams in the win column, but they should get to that 12th win on Thursday when they host Montana State. From there, I think they are the best bet to win the title, because all of their games are wins on paper. Montana will likely be favored to lose to EWU, and their game at Idaho is probably about a pick'em. Meanwhile, Sac State will probably be favored to lose at NAU, and their game at PSU is probably about a pick'em.
So, add it all up, and I like Eastern Washington as the most likely host of the Big Sky tournament, followed by Sacramento State, and then Montana, and then Northern Arizona.
Of course, all four of these teams have a very real chance, which will make it a fun race down the stretch? What does everyone else think?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)