Montana State @ Portland State Quarterfinal Preview and Prediction

The Big Sky Tournament is finally upon us! On Saturday, there will be two quarterfinal games being played. In the three vs six matchup, we will see Montana State travel to take on Portland State. Let's break it down and offer up a prediction.

PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
You wouldn't guess this, but it has been Montana State that has swept the season series. They beat Portland State 86-73 in late December, and then 70-65 in late January.

BACKCOURT
Portland State is led by all-conference player Charles Odum, who is second in the conference in scoring. He is an excellent offensive player, and he shoots 62% from inside the arc, an astounding number for a 6'0'' guard. He is a master at getting in the lane and to the line, where he has shot more than seven FTs per game (making 83% of them). He is flanked by Lateef McMullan, who struggled early in the year but has had some nice moments. They need more consistent play from him, but he is capable of producing. Michael Harthun is in the wing spot, and he has been a quietly efficient player. He shoots 43% from downtown, and doesn't take much off the table.

Montana State has been hurt by attrition. Jamie Stewart was academically ineligible, and of course Xavier Blount got injured in an off-court incident. That has stretched their depth. Rod Singleton is their (much-maligned, by fans) senior leader and PG, but he turns it over more than he gets assists. Shawn Reid has stepped into the lineup in Blount's absense and been probably their best player over the last month. He is a guy they look to as their go-to scorer. Christian Moon is a nice outside shooter, but he has been slumping a bit. If he starts to hit some shots, they will have a chance.

EDGE: I give the edge to Portland State simply because they have Charles Odum. He is a difference-maker.

FRONTCOURT
MSU usually starts Mohammed Fall and Tre Johnson in the post, two guys that have different skill sets. Fall is an athletic guy, solid defender and rebounder, and a guy that cleans up on the offensive glass with putbacks. He is one of the best shot blockers in the conference, and a guy that can cause teams problems down low. Tre Johnson is more offensive minded, and is a little bit better at creating shots.

For PSU, they are led by Chehales Tapscott, another first teamer and probably the best frontcourt player in the Big Sky. He does it all for the Viks. He is a solid scorer, the best rebounder in the Big Sky, one of the best shot blockers, and also gets his fair share of steals. He is a fun guy to watch, and the conference will miss him. He is joined in the frontcourt by Nate Lozeau, a guy that started out the year very strong, but has had less of impact as the season has gone on. Still, he is a big man that rebounds and shoots a very nice percentage.

EDGE: I give Portland State a slight edge in this one, because Tapscott is just that good.

BENCH
Portland State has the best bench player in the game and one of the best in the conference in Renado Parker, an adept scorer and rebounder. He has a chance to be a 15/8 player next year and forms a formidable offensive duo with Tapscott. Gary Winston has been a nice player in the backcourt for them, showing a nice outside touch. He is a likely starter next year and can be a solid bench player for them.

Montana State, as we've said, struggles with depth because of their personnel losses. Mike Dison is their lone backcourt sub that gets a lot of time, but he struggles to make an impact as a freshman. In the frontcourt, Jeff Budinich is a nice player. He has a sneaky solid outside shot, and his high release means he can get shots off almost whenever he wants. Jourdain Allou is a solid, athletic big that is a good offensive rebounder and efficient scorer.

EDGE: This one is too close to call, so I will say even. Each team has one or two guys that can make plays off the bench, but they are not very deep. The starters will decide this game.

WHO WINS
These are two teams trending in opposite directions. The Vikings have won six straight conference games, while the Bobcats have won once in their last nine games. As I have been saying (including on a podcast with Gidal), MSU relies heavily on Shawn Reid and Christian Moon for their scoring, but they are not necessarily ready for those roles.

Portland State, meanwhile, is well defined in that they have their two stars (Odum and Tapscott), and then everyone else falls in after that. They will be the two best players on the court, and combined with the fact that this game is in Portland, I like the Vikings to win this game.

PORTLAND STATE 80, MONTANA STATE 70

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Montana State Loses Heartbreaker to UC Riverside

On Sunday afternoon, Montana State lost a wild, crazy game at UC Riverside, and one they certainly think they should have won. UC Riverside won 75-73 in Bozeman.

Montana State was eventually ahead 73-69 near the end of the game. UC Riverside hit a basket and got sent to the FT line with a questionable foul call. They missed the FT, but Montana State was called for a lane violation. He missed the second FT, but the ball was tipped out to Riverside G Robert Smith (who appeared to push Rod Singleton out of the way). He threw up a desperation 3, and it fell through with 0.7 seconds left.

“It was wild,” said Montana State coach Brad Huse of the closing sequence. “We had the game in hand, we made free throws, we just didn't finish it off. Credit Riverside, they got the right bounce and made the shot. We have nowhere to point fingers but ourselves.”

It was a game of questionable officiating on both sides, according to people who watched the game. The Bobcats shot 40-52 from the foul line, but they came up just short.

There were some good things from the Bobcats though. I liked their 1-3-1 zone, as they are athletic enough to be a problem for offenses. In particular, Mohammed Fall is an athletic big that is tough down low, and he had 4 blocks on the day.

The other big thing, and this has been happening over the last few games, is that Xavier Blount has emerged as their go-to guy. He had 21 points and hit a big jumper down the stretch.

It will be a tough one for the Bobcats to swallow, and they will have a week before they get back on the court. They take on Pepperdine next Sunday.

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Montana State Topples Utah

I am guessing that a lot of teams are going to have the pleasure of beating Utah this year, but it still feels good to get a prediction right for a change. I said earlier today that the Bobcats were simply the more talented team, and they showed it on Saturday.

Montana State jumped out to a 9-0 run and never looked back, winning 70-64 in Utah. Rod Singleton led them with 18 points, while Tre Johnson contributed 15 points and 6 rebounds and JUCO big man Mohammed Fall showed he was worth the hype with 12 points and 6 rebounds.

The game recap said that the game was tied with just under a minute left when Christian Moon hit a bit 3, which helped jumpstart a 9-3 for the Bobcats which gave them the win. For all of the preseason talk about JUCOs Xavier Johnson-Blount and Jamie Stewart, Moon might be the one that has had the biggest impact. He is a great shooter and is a valuable role player for the Bobcats.

The Bobcats improve to 2-1 and own a win over a Pac-12 team. It's a solid start for Brad Huse, who is starting to settle into a bit of a rotation.

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Montana State Hosts Exhibition Tonight

Montana State will host Colorado Christian tonight in an exhibition, which should be one of the most interesting exhibitions in the Big Sky.

The Bobcats are breaking in a lot of new guys, and I would say their starting five and rotation is a bit more fluid perhaps than any other team in the Conference, so the start of play (other than the intrasquad scrimmage) could tell us a few things about the team.

"I can't say we've had a bunch of guys step forward and grasp spots yet," he said. "We obviously have a starter back at the point guard in Rod Singleton, but Mike Dison has had a great fall. At virtually every other spot we're almost a two-headed monster. We have a couple options at every position, each with different strengths. We're not going to get too caught up in who's starting, especially early on."

If I had to guess, I would say the starting lineup will look something like:

1 Rod Singleton
2/3 Xavier Johnson-Blount
2/3 Jamie Stewart
4 Mohammed Fall
5 Jeff Budinich

But a lot of things are very unsettled, especially in the post.

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