Look Out For Montana

It has been an up and down season for Montana. They were 5-4 in non-conference play, and then surprisingly dropped their home opener against Northern Arizona once Big Sky play started. After a home loss to Northern Colorado, they were 2-4, and need a furious barrage of threes in the second half to take down Idaho State to avoid falling to 2-5.

But yet, after close road wins against Southern Utah and Montana State, the Grizzlies are 5-5 in the Big Sky, and I can't shake the feeling that when the dust settles, they will be in third or fourth in the Big Sky.

As I have documented here before, they have their issues. They are not a good defensive team, giving up 1.09 PPP in conference play, which is 8th in the Big Sky. Their frontcourt issues are well documented - their most used lineup features four guards playing. But I think they are getting better, and it wouldn't surprise me if they kept getting better - that's just what Wayne Tinkle's teams do.

Their struggles have masked the fact that they are actually pretty good offensively. Against DI opponents this year, they shoot 38% on threes and 53% on two-pointers, both top 50 marks in the country. They are able to get to the line, but also shoot a lot of threes, which is a nice combo for a good-shooting team. They have a top 50 mark in the country in terms of taking care of the basketball, with a solid 16.1% turnover rate.

They are still led by Kareem Jamar, who is carrying a big load but playing excellent basketball. He shoots 52% on twos and 38% on threes, while maintaining his great assist rate and solid rebounding rate. This season, he has dramatically cut his turnover rate even as his assist rate and usage rate has jumped. He's not getting as much hype this year because of the struggles of the Grizzlies, but he better than ever.

Jamar isn't doing it himself though, he is getting help from his backcourt mates. Jordan Gregory has been as good as predicted, maintaining his great efficiency even with increased minutes and usage. He is a fantastic scorer for them. Keron DeShields was a question mark coming into the year, but he has been a good player for them, hitting shots and taking care of the ball. Mario Dunn is getting better and better as the season goes along, and will be a vital part of the rotation as the year goes along.

All year long, most (myself included in this) have mostly been talking about Montana in terms of what they cannot do, and what their limitations are. However, it might be time to start talking about their strengths, because with six home games left in the final ten, they could be a factor in the Big Sky.

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Problems For Montana

Let me throw a big giant caveat at the beginning of this article... Montana has played one game, and they have the best coach in the Big Sky, who has shown time and time again the ability to make adjustments as the season goes along to make the team better. However, this also needs to be said - The Grizzlies have some things to work on.

The fact that they lost on Tuesday to Minnesota is not a surprise. Minnesota is a good team, and they will win a lot of games this year. If Montana had won, it would have been a bigger upset than Northern Colorado beating Kansas State. However, the way they lost (84-58) had to be a bit discouraging for the Grizzlies. Heading into the year, it was easy to see some potential problem areas for Montana, which I highlighted in my preview. Through one game, those areas stood out.

Montana may well recover and win the Big Sky (nobody should doubt Wayne Tinkle at this point), but there are four big concerns I have about the Grizzlies right now:

1. Rebounding - Last year, they were not a good rebounding team. They had one of the lowest offensive rebounding rates in the country (25.1%, 334th in the nation), and personnel-wise, there doesn't seem to be a lot of help brought in. I think this is partly a function of their offense, but it lowers their margin for error offensively (more on the offense later). Defensive rebounding wise, they were not terrible last year, but frequently got outrebounded. Against Minnesota (who, it should be noted was the best offensive rebounding team in the country last year, although most of their best offensive rebounders from last season were not playing in the opener), the Grizzlies allowed 14 offensive rebounds, and got outrebounded 45-29. They may not be a great rebounding team, but they have to get better there. Fortunately, they won't play the Gophers again!

2. Defense - Don't look now, but the Grizzlies took a step back defensively compared to past season, allowing 1.00 PPP, after three straight seasons below 1.00 (including 0.96 PPP in 2012). This isn't a crisis - they were still second in the Big Sky by a big margin - but that is the difference between competing for a title and competing for second place. Against the Gophers, they allowed 1.24 PPP. The Gophers shot 11/25 from downtown, and their 14 offensive boards were a big factor there. Montana had a similarly bad game against BYU early last year, and things turned out ok, but it's something to keep an eye on.

3. Point Guard Play - In my preview, I noted my concern about Keron DeShields' ability to step in and run the show, and it was an uneven first game for him. He shot 3/11 from the floor (compared to 12 FGA for Kareem Jamar and six for Jordan Gregory), and had three assists compared to four turnovers. These are some of the same issues from last season, where he was a bit uneven as a ballhandler and not an efficient scorer. Backing him up, Mario Dunn played like a freshman. He was 2/5 from the field, but his line would have looked a lot better if he was better than 1/4 from the charity stripe. He had one assist and one turnover. I think Dunn will improve a lot as the year goes on, and could even seize the PG spot by conference play. We will see.

4. Interior scoring - To win in the Big Sky, you don't need an elite interior post threat. Heck, the Grizzlies have proven that the last couple of years. Of course, that doesn't mean it isn't something you would like to have. Against Montana, they had none. To wit, the lines of the frontcourt guys:

- Eric Hutchison played 11 minutes and was in some foul trouble. He scored two points and had no rebounds in his time.
- Chris Kemp played just seven minutes, going scoreless but grabbing three rebounds. I think he will be a bit like Spencer Coleman last season... slowly getting worked into things before becoming a big-time contributor by the end of the season.
- Andy Martin played six minutes, also going scoreless while grabbing one rebound.
- Michael Weisner is like Mathias Ward last season a bit... he is a frontcourt guy, and started at the four spot... but he is almost more comfortable on the perimeter. He scored five points on 2/5 shooting,  grabbing two rebounds but turning it over four times.

Again, it's only one game, against a very good opponent, and these things will definitely get better. Still, I bring them up because they were seen as potential areas of weakness heading into the season, and they were glaring in the opener. It is far too early to make any type of conclusions, but they will be things to watch. Grizzlies fans, what are you worried about (if anything)?

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A Good Montana Preview

GoGriz.com has posted an excellent and thorough preview of the Montana Grizzlies this season, and it is well worth a read. It can be found here. A few of the nuggets:

- Mario Dunn should see minutes right away, and Montana coaches except that within four or five games, he will be ready to contribute consistently. I wouldn't be too shocked if he pushes Keron DeShields for the starting spot. We should also see some Kareem Jamar at the one, showcasing his great versatility.

- It sounds as if fellow freshman Brandon Gfeller will redshirt this year, just from the quotes from Wayne Tinkle. Tinkle did call him, "As good a shooter as I've seen."

- The other freshman is Australian Jack Lopez. In a perfect world, I think he would redshirt. However, it sounds like will play and be a backup at the two and three spots. He is a solid shooter, but doesn't seem ready to contribute in more than a bit role.

- Junior college forward Chris Kemp will be counted on right away. At 6'6'', 240 pounds, and a big body who will get rebounds and make opponents work in the post. I have a feeling he will begin the year at the four spot. Jake Wiley could also be in the mix, but it looks like Kemp's job to lose.

- Riley Bradshaw, transfer from Utah State, will be eligible to play around Christmas. He could give them a big boost in conference play with his offensive ability.

- It sounds as if Mike Weisner will play a little more at the three than we have seen the past couple of seasons. Though his shooting can provide matchup problems at the four and five spots, his body type is probably better suited for the three if he can add some quickness.

- Eric Hutchison should begin the year starting at center, but I expect we will see something of a time split with him and Andy Martin. Martin had some nice moments as a freshman, but is still probably a little too limited to play more than 15 minutes a game consistently. We will also likely see Kemp at the 5 spot when they want to go a little quicker.

Any other thoughts on the Griz?

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Keron DeShields and Will Cherry Arrested

I am pretty sure that what a coach wants most for the offseason is for his players to get through it without incident. Unfortunately, that won't be happening for Wayne Tinkle. Per The Missoulian:

Two University of Montana basketball players, Will Cherry and Keron DeShields, were arrested along with a third man early Saturday morning after a disturbance downtown, according to the University of Montana and Missoula police.

The incident was reported at 2:04 a.m. at 125 W. Front St., according to Sgt. Rick Stevenson. Police didn’t identify the business, but that’s the address for Stockman’s Bar.

Cherry, 22, faces misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct and resisting arrest, while DeShields, 20, is charged with disorderly conduct. A 34-year-old man, Jason Shawn Snyder, is charged with possession of marijuana and drug paraphernalia, as well as disorderly conduct.

You all know Cherry, who has been an All Big Sky player for the last three years, and was the heart and soul of a Grizzlies team that had a ton of success over the past two years. He is a fringe NBA prospect, though you figure this certainly doesn't help his chances, unfortunately. From the interactions I've had with him and from everything I have heard, he is a good kid, but one bad incident can sometimes make a reputation. Hopefully it won't, in this case.

DeShields is coming off a promising year, and would be a big part of the Grizzlies rotation next season. It remains to be seen what his punishment will be seen, as Montana obviously will need to let things play out a bit:

“Will is still enrolled and is graduating in a couple of weeks. Keron is moving forward with us. The student-athlete conduct code is pretty clear-cut. We have to make sure we have all the facts before we make any decisions. Obviously, it’s a situation we would have preferred didn’t happen with our student-athletes.”

Montana athletic director Kent Haslam echoed Tinkle’s comments.

“I’m certain there will be punishments levied,” Haslam said.

“(The student-athlete code of conduct) has a variety of parameters. We have quite a bit of latitude in what we can do. It does set minimums based on the category of the offense. It runs everything from being put on probation, to a formal reprimand, to notifying the parents all the way up to suspension of games and then the top punishment is removal from the team.

“We’ll want to understand completely what happened and we’ll rely on a police report and other incident reports.”

Hopefully it's a one time, isolated incident. At the very least, it's a reminder to all athletes that they are a microscope, and one mistake, or one time of putting yourself in the wrong situation and doing something dumb can have a huge impact on your future.

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What Does Montana Look Like Without Cherry and Ward?

It seems almost certain that Will Cherry will miss the rest of the season, with reports that he re-broke his foot. Mathias Ward's status is less certain, but there is at least a very good chance he will miss this week's games, where they will travel to take on Montana State and Southern Utah.

What do they lose with those two guys? All season long, it has been said that the Grizzlies biggest thing going for them was the big 3. That was - Ward, Cherry, and Kareem Jamar. Obviously, this would take out 2/3 of that trio. Ward and Cherry account for almost 40% of the team's scoring. Ward is the best midrange shooter in the Big Sky, and Cherry is the best defender in the Big Sky.

They can't replace Cherry's defense. That is no offense to the rest of the team, it's just that there is nobody in the conference (and not many in America) that are as good as Cherry. He is second all time in the Big Sky in steals. But how will they go about replacing these guys' offensive production? Here are some things to watch:

1) Kareem Jamar has to be the man - Simply put, Jamar has to be at his best every game. With Cherry out (and possibly even if Cherry is healthy), Jamar is the best player in the conference. He averages 14 PPG, 6 RPG, and 4 APG.  He is now Montana's best scorer, rebounder, and passer. He has to do it all for them right now, and he is good enough to do that. On Saturday, he was two assists away from a triple-double, and that was no aberration. They will rely heavily on Jamar.

2) Spencer Coleman and Mike Weisner need to step up - Coleman and Weisner are probably more traditional threes, but they will be asked to play a ton of four and possibly even some five down the stretch. Over the last couple of years, the Grizzlies offense has been at its best when they have five guys that can step away from the hoop and shoot. They did that this year when Ward was at the five, and one of these guys at the four. Now, one of them might be asked to play center often. Both guys can hit the outside shot (Weisner in particular has been excellent from outside), but the key will be how they rebound and defend.

3) Keron DeShields and Jordan Gregory can no longer be role players - We looked at these guys closely before the season began, but now their contributions will be more important than ever. Both have made nice strides this year, but Wayne Tinkle is going to need them to be consistent offensive threats for the Grizzlies. Gregory has been the more efficient scorer this year, shooting 53% on twos and 43% from downtown. DeShields is a guy that Tinkle loves for his toughness and fearlessness, but he has been a little inconsistent offensively. He is only an average outside shooter (but better facilitator than Gregory), but he needs to take the next step without Cherry.

Looking at the roster... if Cherry and Ward are done for the rest of the year (or at least, however long they are out), the Grizzlies need these three things to happen. They have more traditional big men (Eric Hutchison and Andy Martin) but both guys have only been effective in spurts, and they are slow-footed post men. The Grizzlies have performed best with a quick lineup of shooters, and a lineup of DeShields-Gregory-Jamar-Coleman-Weisner is the best chance at that. But it's hard to say how that lineup would perform defensively and on the glass. I suspect we will find out down the stretch.

Wayne Tinkle is the best coach in the Big Sky. He has proven this over the year. But this may be his biggest challenge.

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