Montana Outlook

It's time to get ready for the Big Sky season again with some overviews of each team this month, and then eventually we'll get into more detailed looks at everything.

What They Lost: The biggest lost is the head coach, Wayne Tinkle, who left to take the top job at Oregon State. Tinkle had great success with the Grizzlies, and was widely seen as the top coach in the Big Sky. Travis DeCuire looks to be an excellent coach, but Tinkle is a tough act to follow. The other major loss is do-everything Kareem Jamar. If you are reading this, you likely know all about Jamar, who was one of the three best players (and arguably the best) in the Big Sky over the past three seasons.

The other loss of note is guard Keron DeShields, who transferred out. Last year, he improved to be a solid starter for them, but I think they have the pieces in place so that this won't be a major loss for the team. They also lose big men Andy Martin and Eric Hutchison, but neither loss should be felt too much.

Who Returns: Guard Jordan Gregory returns for his senior year, and he could be one of the leading scorers in the conference. Consistently efficient (60% True Shooting Percentage, low TO Rate), he could get more opportunities with Jamar gone, but could also have to deal with being the focal point of the offense. Either way, he's a nice building block. Another key returnee in the backcourt is Mario Dunn, who could be a breakout star in the conference. Though a bit raw offensively as a freshman, he has the physical tools to be above average there as a sophomore, while becoming one of the best defensive players in the Big Sky, in the mold of Will Cherry. Seeing how much he improved from year one to year two could be one of the most interesting storylines in the Big Sky.

They return some depth on the wing, with Riley Bradshaw and Brandon Gfeller both potential sparkplugs offensively with their shooting ability. Upfront, Michael Weisner is one of the biggest weapons in the Big Sky - a stretch four that shoots 50% from downtown. He is a big weapon for them. Another returner upfront is forward Chris Kemp, who had an uneven debut season as a junior. There are games he looks like a good starter, and others where he is a bench guy. They could use some consistency from him.

Newcomers: The guy with the biggest impact will be big man Martin Breunig, who is eligible after sitting out last year due to transfer rules. He originally committed to Maryland before signing at Washington, and is an athletic big with a versatile skill set. I'll be writing more about him before the year, but he could be an all-conference player in his first year in Missoula.

Bryden Boehning is a good prospect at center, but it will likely take him a couple years to make a true impact. Forward Fabijan Krslovic from Australia could see some time as a true freshman, as a 6'8'' post with some offensive skills. I wouldn't expect a huge impact in year one, but he should play and grow into a role as a solid bench player for them right away.

General Outlook: Like many others, there is a wide variance possible for Montana. If things break right, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them competing for a Big Sky title in year one of Travis DeCuire. If Gregory isn't able to keep his efficiency with more responsibility, or Breunig can't provide that inside presence they've been missing, they could fall into the mid-tier. Preseason, I currently have them slotted in at number four.

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball

Problems For Montana

Let me throw a big giant caveat at the beginning of this article... Montana has played one game, and they have the best coach in the Big Sky, who has shown time and time again the ability to make adjustments as the season goes along to make the team better. However, this also needs to be said - The Grizzlies have some things to work on.

The fact that they lost on Tuesday to Minnesota is not a surprise. Minnesota is a good team, and they will win a lot of games this year. If Montana had won, it would have been a bigger upset than Northern Colorado beating Kansas State. However, the way they lost (84-58) had to be a bit discouraging for the Grizzlies. Heading into the year, it was easy to see some potential problem areas for Montana, which I highlighted in my preview. Through one game, those areas stood out.

Montana may well recover and win the Big Sky (nobody should doubt Wayne Tinkle at this point), but there are four big concerns I have about the Grizzlies right now:

1. Rebounding - Last year, they were not a good rebounding team. They had one of the lowest offensive rebounding rates in the country (25.1%, 334th in the nation), and personnel-wise, there doesn't seem to be a lot of help brought in. I think this is partly a function of their offense, but it lowers their margin for error offensively (more on the offense later). Defensive rebounding wise, they were not terrible last year, but frequently got outrebounded. Against Minnesota (who, it should be noted was the best offensive rebounding team in the country last year, although most of their best offensive rebounders from last season were not playing in the opener), the Grizzlies allowed 14 offensive rebounds, and got outrebounded 45-29. They may not be a great rebounding team, but they have to get better there. Fortunately, they won't play the Gophers again!

2. Defense - Don't look now, but the Grizzlies took a step back defensively compared to past season, allowing 1.00 PPP, after three straight seasons below 1.00 (including 0.96 PPP in 2012). This isn't a crisis - they were still second in the Big Sky by a big margin - but that is the difference between competing for a title and competing for second place. Against the Gophers, they allowed 1.24 PPP. The Gophers shot 11/25 from downtown, and their 14 offensive boards were a big factor there. Montana had a similarly bad game against BYU early last year, and things turned out ok, but it's something to keep an eye on.

3. Point Guard Play - In my preview, I noted my concern about Keron DeShields' ability to step in and run the show, and it was an uneven first game for him. He shot 3/11 from the floor (compared to 12 FGA for Kareem Jamar and six for Jordan Gregory), and had three assists compared to four turnovers. These are some of the same issues from last season, where he was a bit uneven as a ballhandler and not an efficient scorer. Backing him up, Mario Dunn played like a freshman. He was 2/5 from the field, but his line would have looked a lot better if he was better than 1/4 from the charity stripe. He had one assist and one turnover. I think Dunn will improve a lot as the year goes on, and could even seize the PG spot by conference play. We will see.

4. Interior scoring - To win in the Big Sky, you don't need an elite interior post threat. Heck, the Grizzlies have proven that the last couple of years. Of course, that doesn't mean it isn't something you would like to have. Against Montana, they had none. To wit, the lines of the frontcourt guys:

- Eric Hutchison played 11 minutes and was in some foul trouble. He scored two points and had no rebounds in his time.
- Chris Kemp played just seven minutes, going scoreless but grabbing three rebounds. I think he will be a bit like Spencer Coleman last season... slowly getting worked into things before becoming a big-time contributor by the end of the season.
- Andy Martin played six minutes, also going scoreless while grabbing one rebound.
- Michael Weisner is like Mathias Ward last season a bit... he is a frontcourt guy, and started at the four spot... but he is almost more comfortable on the perimeter. He scored five points on 2/5 shooting,  grabbing two rebounds but turning it over four times.

Again, it's only one game, against a very good opponent, and these things will definitely get better. Still, I bring them up because they were seen as potential areas of weakness heading into the season, and they were glaring in the opener. It is far too early to make any type of conclusions, but they will be things to watch. Grizzlies fans, what are you worried about (if anything)?

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball

Kareem Jamar and Chris Kemp Solid at Montana Scrimmage

Montana has their Maroon-Silver Scrimmage on Tuesday night, and the reports are good about Kareem Jamar and Chris Kemp.

"Kareem was Kareem, " said eighth-year Griz head coach Wayne Tinkle. "He makes plays for us no matter what position he's at. He set up a bunch of our bigs for guys for shots, plus he made a few of how own, and we're going to need that from him day-in and day-out."

-----

"I thought Chris played well offensively, and I think we will see that defensively he needs to get a little bit better," Tinkle said. "He didn't rebound as well as he can, but he's going to be a force for us."

Jamar is the best player in the Big Sky, so it's no surprise that he looked good. The encouraging sign for Montana is Chris Kemp. The Grizzlies need the junior college transfer to be big for them (no pun intended), and to anchor their frontcourt. It looks like he is off to a fine start, as he looked very explosive from all accounts.

The Grizzlies message board also has some good info on the scrimmage.

Montana fans, anything you noticed?

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball

A Good Montana Preview

GoGriz.com has posted an excellent and thorough preview of the Montana Grizzlies this season, and it is well worth a read. It can be found here. A few of the nuggets:

- Mario Dunn should see minutes right away, and Montana coaches except that within four or five games, he will be ready to contribute consistently. I wouldn't be too shocked if he pushes Keron DeShields for the starting spot. We should also see some Kareem Jamar at the one, showcasing his great versatility.

- It sounds as if fellow freshman Brandon Gfeller will redshirt this year, just from the quotes from Wayne Tinkle. Tinkle did call him, "As good a shooter as I've seen."

- The other freshman is Australian Jack Lopez. In a perfect world, I think he would redshirt. However, it sounds like will play and be a backup at the two and three spots. He is a solid shooter, but doesn't seem ready to contribute in more than a bit role.

- Junior college forward Chris Kemp will be counted on right away. At 6'6'', 240 pounds, and a big body who will get rebounds and make opponents work in the post. I have a feeling he will begin the year at the four spot. Jake Wiley could also be in the mix, but it looks like Kemp's job to lose.

- Riley Bradshaw, transfer from Utah State, will be eligible to play around Christmas. He could give them a big boost in conference play with his offensive ability.

- It sounds as if Mike Weisner will play a little more at the three than we have seen the past couple of seasons. Though his shooting can provide matchup problems at the four and five spots, his body type is probably better suited for the three if he can add some quickness.

- Eric Hutchison should begin the year starting at center, but I expect we will see something of a time split with him and Andy Martin. Martin had some nice moments as a freshman, but is still probably a little too limited to play more than 15 minutes a game consistently. We will also likely see Kemp at the 5 spot when they want to go a little quicker.

Any other thoughts on the Griz?

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball

Montana Signs Forward Chris Kemp

The Montana Grizzlies entered the offseason with a need for frontcourt help, and they helped address that with the commitment of forward John "Chris" Kemp out of West Texas College.

Kemp is 6'7'', and will be a junior this year.

"Chris is a very, very explosive post player and extremely strong around the basket," said Tinkle, who has guided UM to a school-record three NCAA berths during his tenure. "He has the potential to be a dominating defender and rebounder - areas which we really need to improve upon in the post.

He averaged 7.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, but played limited minutes because of the rotating system of the team he played on. From all accounts, he is very athletic and tough, and seems to be well-rounded on both ends of the court. The stat line doesn't look like much, but that seems to be more of a function of minutes and the system he played in.

If he can provide some defense, rebounding (he led his team in rebounding with 6.6 per game), and athleticism upfront, it will be a great pickup for the Grizzlies, and exactly what they need. He should be an immediate contributor for the Griz, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him starting.

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball