It was a classic Big Sky title game, with both teams looking to be in control at different times. In the end, it was Eastern Washington making a stunning comeback in the final five minutes to beat Montana and take home the Big Sky title.
Early on, Eastern Washington looked like the team with more energy, and they got off to a nice start, building an early 14-7 lead. They had some missed chances early, but were active defensively, and really attacking the basket, especially going right at Martin Breunig (trying to get him in foul trouble). However, Montana weathered the storm, and took a 30-29 lead into the half.
In the second half, it was the Mike Weisner show, as he had a career high 18 points. He hit big shots throughout the second half, and at times found himself guarding Tyler Harvey, and doing a good job. He was really outstanding. Martin Breunig was also really great all game long. He finished with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and did a nice job defensively as well. If Montana had help on to win, he would be the one getting all the accolades, and rightfully so. He was outstanding.
At the 6:18 mark, Montana hit a basket to go up 59-48, and the crowd was going nuts. It was then that Eastern Washington went into a full-court press, which seemed to fluster Montana. The score was 61-52 at around the four minute mark. Then, Drew Brandon got a bucket, and Montana was called for a five second call after the couldn't get the ball in. After the TV timeout, Tyler Harvey hit a three, and suddenly it was a four point game and Montana was reeling. All told, EWU went on a 21-4 run to close the game out, save for the garbage time bucket by the Grizzlies with a second left.
Tyler Harvey, the nation's leading scorer, was at his best down the stretch. At the six minute mark, he had just ten points, and didn't seem to have any openings (many kudos have to go to Mario Dunn of Montana, who was sensational defensively). He had eight points down the stretch, including an and-1 on a 15 footer from the baseline, which gave EWU a four point lead with 43 seconds left, and the Grizzlies were never able to get any closer.
Montana has had trouble closing out opponents this year - Against both Sac State and Idaho, they had win probabilities of 97%+ in the final three minutes. I mentioned this in one of my previews coming into the tournament, and it turned out to be the Achilles heel for the Grizzlies. That's a tough way to lose.
Two other EWU players should be noted in a recap about the game. One is Bogdan Bliznyuk, as the freshman was outstanding, finishing with 13 points and 5 rebounds. At times, he was the only Eagle capable of getting buckets, and he kept the game close early in the second half. His future is very bright, obviously. The other guy is Drew Brandon, who finished with 16 points and 7 rebounds. His shooting has been unsteady this year, but it was on point in this game. One other Montana player to note is Jordan Gregory, who was getting to the basket all night. What a Big Sky tournament he had.
From an NCAA tournament standpoint, Eastern Washington had the best resume in the Big Sky conference, which should hopefully push them up a few lines when the brackets are announced. It has been a wildly successful season for the Eagles, who capture their second Big Sky championship, and could be even better next season.
What a classic.
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Showing posts with label Martin Breunig. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martin Breunig. Show all posts
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Big Sky's Best Newcomers
As is often the case, a list of the best newcomers in the Big Sky is riddled with transfers and junior college guys rather than freshman, and that is the case (for the most part) here. While a couple of the freshmen deserve inclusion here (and if you want more talk about the freshmen, check here), a lot of this list will be guys that came into the Big Sky with some experience already.
By my count, there are four guys that really deserve consideration to be the Newcomer of the Year. In no particular order, here they are:
- Martin Breunig (Montana) - Before the year, I was told Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and with Joel Bolomboy's numbers down a bit, and Venky Jois battling injury problems, that has proven prophetic. Breunig has been a scorer in the post, shooting nearly 60% on two-pointers, on a lot of attempts. He has also been beastly on the boards, with a 9.9 OR% and 19.9 DR%, both top 7 numbers in the Big Sky. The only thing that has held him back is a propensity to get into foul trouble. However, when he's on the court, he's outstanding. At this point, he is certainly the frontrunner for the award.
- Cameron Michael (Northern Colorado) - UNC coaches told me how excited they were when Michael decided to transfer, and he has been everything they could have hoped for in his first year in Greeley. He has been a great shooter, at over 41% from downtown. He is not just a shooter though, as he takes almost five shots a game inside the arc, where he is also efficient. He takes care of the ball as well. He is just a really good player for them.
- Tiegbe Bamba (Portland State) - His long awaited debut for the Vikings was worth the weight, as he has been a steady frontcourt presence for them this season. On two-pointers, he is shooting almost 63% (he has taken 27 threes, but at least made 9 of them), and he's been a solid rebounder on both ends of the court. He turns it over a little more than you'd like for a big man, but he has helped bring stability to the frontcourt which the Viks didn't have last year.
- Braxton Tucker (Portland State) - The other new equation in the PSU front line is Tucker, who has been very solid as well. Like Bamba, he is an efficient scorer, who has been better at creating his own shot than Bamba has. He is very solid on the offensive glass, sporting a top 10 offensive rebound rate in the conference.
Honorable Mention:
- Ben Wilson (Idaho State) - Wilson is getting a lot of minutes for the Bengals, and can do some nice things. At 6'6'', he has the length to be disruptive in the zone defense, especially up top. He has also been a relatively solid playmaker, with an Assist Rate over 21%. He's not really a scorer, and he's not a natural PG, but has played there most of the year out of necessity.
- Estan Tyler (North Dakota) - Tyler is talented, and his role seems to have grown as the year has gone on. Still, he's been a little inefficient shooting the ball, and turns it over more than you'd like. He's a good shooter, and his numbers are probably hampered a little bit by a lack of a lot of other offensive options for defenses to focus on.
- Bogdan Bliznyuk (Eastern Washington) - Bliznyuk has slowed a little the past week, but he is still a diverse scorer that will be a big factor in EWU's tournament run. The Eagles have a future offensive star on their hands, and a guy that could win a scoring title in the conference at some point.
- Arkadiy Mkrtchyan (Idaho) - You don't always hear a lot about Ark, but he's a really good player for them that does a lot of little things. He doesn't shoot a lot, but he's efficient when he does. He's also a really good rebounder on both ends, and above average at drawing fouls. He could be a future star for the Vandals.
Thoughts? Anyone I missed? Who is the best among the group?
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By my count, there are four guys that really deserve consideration to be the Newcomer of the Year. In no particular order, here they are:
- Martin Breunig (Montana) - Before the year, I was told Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and with Joel Bolomboy's numbers down a bit, and Venky Jois battling injury problems, that has proven prophetic. Breunig has been a scorer in the post, shooting nearly 60% on two-pointers, on a lot of attempts. He has also been beastly on the boards, with a 9.9 OR% and 19.9 DR%, both top 7 numbers in the Big Sky. The only thing that has held him back is a propensity to get into foul trouble. However, when he's on the court, he's outstanding. At this point, he is certainly the frontrunner for the award.
- Cameron Michael (Northern Colorado) - UNC coaches told me how excited they were when Michael decided to transfer, and he has been everything they could have hoped for in his first year in Greeley. He has been a great shooter, at over 41% from downtown. He is not just a shooter though, as he takes almost five shots a game inside the arc, where he is also efficient. He takes care of the ball as well. He is just a really good player for them.
- Tiegbe Bamba (Portland State) - His long awaited debut for the Vikings was worth the weight, as he has been a steady frontcourt presence for them this season. On two-pointers, he is shooting almost 63% (he has taken 27 threes, but at least made 9 of them), and he's been a solid rebounder on both ends of the court. He turns it over a little more than you'd like for a big man, but he has helped bring stability to the frontcourt which the Viks didn't have last year.
- Braxton Tucker (Portland State) - The other new equation in the PSU front line is Tucker, who has been very solid as well. Like Bamba, he is an efficient scorer, who has been better at creating his own shot than Bamba has. He is very solid on the offensive glass, sporting a top 10 offensive rebound rate in the conference.
Honorable Mention:
- Ben Wilson (Idaho State) - Wilson is getting a lot of minutes for the Bengals, and can do some nice things. At 6'6'', he has the length to be disruptive in the zone defense, especially up top. He has also been a relatively solid playmaker, with an Assist Rate over 21%. He's not really a scorer, and he's not a natural PG, but has played there most of the year out of necessity.
- Estan Tyler (North Dakota) - Tyler is talented, and his role seems to have grown as the year has gone on. Still, he's been a little inefficient shooting the ball, and turns it over more than you'd like. He's a good shooter, and his numbers are probably hampered a little bit by a lack of a lot of other offensive options for defenses to focus on.
- Bogdan Bliznyuk (Eastern Washington) - Bliznyuk has slowed a little the past week, but he is still a diverse scorer that will be a big factor in EWU's tournament run. The Eagles have a future offensive star on their hands, and a guy that could win a scoring title in the conference at some point.
- Arkadiy Mkrtchyan (Idaho) - You don't always hear a lot about Ark, but he's a really good player for them that does a lot of little things. He doesn't shoot a lot, but he's efficient when he does. He's also a really good rebounder on both ends, and above average at drawing fouls. He could be a future star for the Vandals.
Thoughts? Anyone I missed? Who is the best among the group?
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Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Montana is a Definite Contender
I have been a little skeptical of Montana so far this year. They started 6-1 in the Big Sky (before this past weekend), but that was against a very soft schedule, and with a level of defensive performance that didn't seem sustainable based on their defense during the non-conference portion of the schedule. All in all, I liked them, but felt like they were behind Sacramento State and Eastern Washington.
However, after this past weekend, a re-assessment is needed. They pasted Portland State on the road Thursday, and had Sacramento State on the ropes Saturday before the Hornets came back for a win. (Arguably, Montana did more than have them on the ropes - when they led by eight at the three minute mark, they had a 97% chance to win the game. They were on the wrong end of some calls I felt were questionable, but they have themselves to blame with bad turnovers, missed free throws, and then of course giving Dylan Garrity an open corner three to win the game. Of course, Garrity is probably the last guy in the Big Sky you want shooting an open three with game on the line!)
If I did power rankings this week, I'd probably have Montana above Sacramento State*, because they had the Hornets dead to rights on their home court, even with their best player missing a lot of time due to foul trouble. It was an impressive effort, made more impressive because they had beaten PSU so soundly two nights before.
The Grizzlies continue to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference defensively, as their PPP against of 0.929 is worlds above NAU in second, who is at 1.046. They are forcing turnovers at a conference best rate, and teams are struggling from the outside. Mario Dunn might be the best defender in the Big Sky.
Offensively, they can have dry spells, but it's good enough to keep them in most games. Martin Breunig is either the best or second best offensive post guy in the conference (depending on your preference between him and Venky Jois), which is obviously a huge luxury. Jordan Gregory has struggled a bit in comparison to past years, but he is still a very good scorer. Brandon Gfeller has become a dynamite shooting specialist. They have enough pieces that they are capable on that end.
Their schedule is tough the rest of the way... they host Weber State, still have to go to Greeley, and have two games left against both Eastern Washington and Idaho. This will probably hand them enough losses that a Big Sky regular season title is not likely. However, they have the pieces, and defense, to be a very tough contender for the Big Sky title. With their near road win over Sac State, they showed they can get it done at home or on the road, which obviously becomes even more important in the Big Sky tournament.
*This is one of the reasons I'm not doing them this week... I don't want to see the outrage that would ensue!
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However, after this past weekend, a re-assessment is needed. They pasted Portland State on the road Thursday, and had Sacramento State on the ropes Saturday before the Hornets came back for a win. (Arguably, Montana did more than have them on the ropes - when they led by eight at the three minute mark, they had a 97% chance to win the game. They were on the wrong end of some calls I felt were questionable, but they have themselves to blame with bad turnovers, missed free throws, and then of course giving Dylan Garrity an open corner three to win the game. Of course, Garrity is probably the last guy in the Big Sky you want shooting an open three with game on the line!)
If I did power rankings this week, I'd probably have Montana above Sacramento State*, because they had the Hornets dead to rights on their home court, even with their best player missing a lot of time due to foul trouble. It was an impressive effort, made more impressive because they had beaten PSU so soundly two nights before.
The Grizzlies continue to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference defensively, as their PPP against of 0.929 is worlds above NAU in second, who is at 1.046. They are forcing turnovers at a conference best rate, and teams are struggling from the outside. Mario Dunn might be the best defender in the Big Sky.
Offensively, they can have dry spells, but it's good enough to keep them in most games. Martin Breunig is either the best or second best offensive post guy in the conference (depending on your preference between him and Venky Jois), which is obviously a huge luxury. Jordan Gregory has struggled a bit in comparison to past years, but he is still a very good scorer. Brandon Gfeller has become a dynamite shooting specialist. They have enough pieces that they are capable on that end.
Their schedule is tough the rest of the way... they host Weber State, still have to go to Greeley, and have two games left against both Eastern Washington and Idaho. This will probably hand them enough losses that a Big Sky regular season title is not likely. However, they have the pieces, and defense, to be a very tough contender for the Big Sky title. With their near road win over Sac State, they showed they can get it done at home or on the road, which obviously becomes even more important in the Big Sky tournament.
*This is one of the reasons I'm not doing them this week... I don't want to see the outrage that would ensue!
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Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Conference Reset, Part 2
After taking a look at the teams on Monday, let's take a closer look at the players that could make up awards teams and award winners, as we head into conference play. These are my predictions for the first two all-conference teams.
First Team:
- Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington - As we enter Big Sky play, Harvey looks like the favorite for the POY. He plays for the best team, and he has continued right where he left off last year as a dynamic scorer. He is averaging 22.8 PPG, but that only tells a little bit of the story. He is shooting a touch under 50% from three point range on the year, and doing it in nine attempts per game, which is almost ridiculous. He takes great care of the ball, and scores efficiently inside the arc as well. He is a star.
- Mikh McKinney, Sacramento State - I give him the slight nod over Garrity because he does more things well. He is a good distributor, and he is third in the league in Assist Rate. He has shot over 60% on two-pointers, and is a good enough outside shooter to keep you honest. He has also been a menace defensively, with the second best steal rate in the nation, swiping the ball 3.3 times per game.
- Venky Jois, Eastern Washington - Jois has cooled down a little after a scorching start, but he has shown a lot of improvement this year, averaging 19 and 8 per game. He is shooting over 60% from the floor, and has gotten better from the stripe. Though the total rebound number is a little inflated due to the fast pace of EWU, he is a good rebounder, and one of the best shot blockers in the conference. Jois does it all for the Eagles.
- Martin Breunig, Montana - Before the year, an insider told me that Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and so far you could make the argument that is the case. His raw numbers of 16.7 PPG/6.4 RPG aren't as high as Jois, but he has been very good. He is shooting 64% from the floor, and 74% from the line. He's helped to turn around a lot of the rebounding troubles the Grizzlies have had the past couple years, and can block some shots as well. Foul trouble has limited his minutes quite a bit, but when he is on the floor, he's as good as any big man in the conference.
- Joel Bolomboy, Weber State - He hasn't been the offensive player we wanted him to be yet, shooting 44% on two-pointers against DI competition (he has feasted in two games against non-DI opponents), and hasn't rebounded it quite as well as his otherworldy rate from last year. But he still has the talent level to do that, and it should come together as the year goes on. No big man can match his athletic prowess.
Second Team:
- Dylan Garrity, Sacramento State - Garrity has really evolved in his career, but a playmaking freshman who led the conference in assists, into a senior who has to be one of the most feared shooters in the nation. He is a lethal weapon from the outside. He falls to the second team here because he has become more of simply a shooting specialist then he was in the past, but he could climb up to the first team.
- Mike Scott, Idaho - I have talked a lot about Scott this year, and he is a guy that has been efficient scoring 15.5 PPG (shooting 44% from three), while being one of the best distributors in the conference. He is second in the Big Sky in Assist Rate, which he has done while maintaining a minuscule turnover rate. He has been the most improved player in the conference.
- Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington - Brandon is the often forgotten third cog for EWU, a PG who does it all. Though not a great scorer (though he has been very efficient when he hasn't been shooting threes), he also averages 7 RPG from the PG position. Jim Hayford's offense needs a good PG, and Brandon has been that guy this year.
- Quinton Upshur, Northern Arizona - It's reasonable to wonder if we saw Upshur's peak last year, but he is a very productive guy that is capable of carrying their offense in some situations. Though not shooting the ball quite as well as last year, he gets a lot of respect from deep. One thing that could help him is if he can get a little better at the line, where is shooting just 59% this year, baffling for a guy with his shooting ability.
- Dominique Lee, Northern Colorado - Lee was excellent in a reserve role last year, but has been even better with increased minutes so far this year. He is super efficient, and has put up better rebounding numbers than anyone in the conference. He is a guy that brings a lot to the table, but doesn't take much off. He has to play the five spot more than you would like, but that doesn't diminish how good he has been.
Let's hear any snubs or your thoughts...
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First Team:
- Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington - As we enter Big Sky play, Harvey looks like the favorite for the POY. He plays for the best team, and he has continued right where he left off last year as a dynamic scorer. He is averaging 22.8 PPG, but that only tells a little bit of the story. He is shooting a touch under 50% from three point range on the year, and doing it in nine attempts per game, which is almost ridiculous. He takes great care of the ball, and scores efficiently inside the arc as well. He is a star.
- Mikh McKinney, Sacramento State - I give him the slight nod over Garrity because he does more things well. He is a good distributor, and he is third in the league in Assist Rate. He has shot over 60% on two-pointers, and is a good enough outside shooter to keep you honest. He has also been a menace defensively, with the second best steal rate in the nation, swiping the ball 3.3 times per game.
- Venky Jois, Eastern Washington - Jois has cooled down a little after a scorching start, but he has shown a lot of improvement this year, averaging 19 and 8 per game. He is shooting over 60% from the floor, and has gotten better from the stripe. Though the total rebound number is a little inflated due to the fast pace of EWU, he is a good rebounder, and one of the best shot blockers in the conference. Jois does it all for the Eagles.
- Martin Breunig, Montana - Before the year, an insider told me that Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and so far you could make the argument that is the case. His raw numbers of 16.7 PPG/6.4 RPG aren't as high as Jois, but he has been very good. He is shooting 64% from the floor, and 74% from the line. He's helped to turn around a lot of the rebounding troubles the Grizzlies have had the past couple years, and can block some shots as well. Foul trouble has limited his minutes quite a bit, but when he is on the floor, he's as good as any big man in the conference.
- Joel Bolomboy, Weber State - He hasn't been the offensive player we wanted him to be yet, shooting 44% on two-pointers against DI competition (he has feasted in two games against non-DI opponents), and hasn't rebounded it quite as well as his otherworldy rate from last year. But he still has the talent level to do that, and it should come together as the year goes on. No big man can match his athletic prowess.
Second Team:
- Dylan Garrity, Sacramento State - Garrity has really evolved in his career, but a playmaking freshman who led the conference in assists, into a senior who has to be one of the most feared shooters in the nation. He is a lethal weapon from the outside. He falls to the second team here because he has become more of simply a shooting specialist then he was in the past, but he could climb up to the first team.
- Mike Scott, Idaho - I have talked a lot about Scott this year, and he is a guy that has been efficient scoring 15.5 PPG (shooting 44% from three), while being one of the best distributors in the conference. He is second in the Big Sky in Assist Rate, which he has done while maintaining a minuscule turnover rate. He has been the most improved player in the conference.
- Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington - Brandon is the often forgotten third cog for EWU, a PG who does it all. Though not a great scorer (though he has been very efficient when he hasn't been shooting threes), he also averages 7 RPG from the PG position. Jim Hayford's offense needs a good PG, and Brandon has been that guy this year.
- Quinton Upshur, Northern Arizona - It's reasonable to wonder if we saw Upshur's peak last year, but he is a very productive guy that is capable of carrying their offense in some situations. Though not shooting the ball quite as well as last year, he gets a lot of respect from deep. One thing that could help him is if he can get a little better at the line, where is shooting just 59% this year, baffling for a guy with his shooting ability.
- Dominique Lee, Northern Colorado - Lee was excellent in a reserve role last year, but has been even better with increased minutes so far this year. He is super efficient, and has put up better rebounding numbers than anyone in the conference. He is a guy that brings a lot to the table, but doesn't take much off. He has to play the five spot more than you would like, but that doesn't diminish how good he has been.
Let's hear any snubs or your thoughts...
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Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Big Sky Notes
NOTE: This was written before all of Wednesday's games, which features an impressive Idaho win over Washington State on the road, a tough NAU loss to UTSA in OT, and a Montana loss in double OT to California.
It's been about a week since I've typed up some notes and observations from Big Sky play, so let's go back and take a look at some of the top storylines and things that have happened lately around the Big Sky.
- Jeremy Senglin for Weber State hit his second game-winner in a week, this time hitting a three with 2.4 seconds left to cap a late comeback win over Oral Roberts. Senglin told Brett Hein he thought the Wildcats were down three rather than two, which helps explain the shot selection. Video and quotes can be found here.
The fact that he may not have known the margin changes this storyline a little bit, but the shot and the possession brought up an interesting look at the process versus the outcome in how we should evaluate things. The shot was good because it went in and gave them the win, but the possession itself was not very good. Down two (again, this is complicated if he really thought it was a three point game), the possession was ugly, filled with a bunch of dribbling on the perimeter and then a long three attempt. He was bailed out in a sense by the shot going in, but overall it wasn't a great look.
The Wildcats are now 3-3 with a neutral court win over Nevada and home win against Oral Roberts, but the fact that they are a young team is still clear. The biggest issues seem to be taking care of the ball, and finding someone other than Joel Bolomboy to rebound the ball, but the talent is still evident. Still, while Senglin has struggled a bit adapting to the full-time ball handling role, Bolomboy has shown more assertiveness offensively (with mixed results), and maybe most importantly, Richaud Gittens looks like a star right now. Their future is very bright.
- Eastern Washington continues to win, as they're number 117 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings and top 60 by the RPI. They have gotten absurd efficiency from their guards (Drew Brandon, Tyler Harvey, and Parker Kelly), while Venky Jois appears to have taken a big step forward. Offensively, they have been excellent. I think teams know how much they like to shoot threes, and that has given them good looks inside the arc, where they have been dynamite.
Their next five games are on the road - Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, Sam Houston State, and California. We should find out during this stretch if their ceiling is that of a team that could be a major threat in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament, or merely as the best team in the Big Sky. Either way, they have established themselves as the early favorites in the Big Sky with their play so far.
- Northern Colorado has been flying under the radar a bit, but they are a good team. While they have again shown some struggles defensively so far, they could be behind only EWU in terms of their offensive prowess. They have been excellent shooting the ball, as well as taking care of it. It could be partly due to the early schedule, but they look deep... only four teams in the country have given more minutes to their bench in DI games. They may not have a star, but they have a lot of good players.
- Sacramento State is 4-1, but I don't know that we've learned much from their games so sfar. One positive development for them is that Nick Hornsby is playing well early on, but that is mostly due to his unsustainable 12/18 FG. They should still be contenders, but there's not much new information on them.
- Kudos deserve to be given to Brian Fish who got the first win of his head coaching career in a 104-81 Montana State win over UT-Arlington. Kudos also to Southern Utah, who snapped a very long road losing streak with this shot from AJ Hess. In case you missed it, here it is again!
AJs 40 ft shot to for first season WIN at the Buzzer 93-92 from Barbara H Hess on Vimeo.
- Martin Breunig has been as good as advertised for Montana, shooting 20/29 on two-point FG against DI opponents, while showing great rebounding ability. Montana has mixed some good performances with puzzling ones, but Breunig still looks like a star.
- On Saturday, Northern Arizona lost a slobber knocker, 40-36, to North Carolina Central. It's not a good loss, but maybe not quite as bad as it sounds. UNCC plays at a snail's pace, and they have been pretty good defensively. At 2-5, the Jacks look like they could be one of the better defensive teams in the conference, but they are struggling a little bit defensively. Still, the 2-5 record basically means nothing, because they've played a very tough slate of opponents so far.
- On the whole, Idaho has been about what we expected - a team that looks like it will score a bunch of points, but not be able to stop anyone on the other end. Their defensive efficiency is #338 in the country... they haven't forced turnovers, and teams are shooting the ball very well against them. Still, there are positives. Mike Scott looks like the breakout senior player for the Vandals, shooting 12/21 from downtown while sporting a cool 26:2 assist to turnover ratio. Perrion Callandret has also started well, and I will have to eat some crow to an Idaho fan who emailed me about him if that continues.
Each week and each game provides some more data points, as the 5-7 games each team has played so far don't give us too much to go on. Things look to be as competitive as they promised to be before the year began. Anything else that you have noticed?
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It's been about a week since I've typed up some notes and observations from Big Sky play, so let's go back and take a look at some of the top storylines and things that have happened lately around the Big Sky.
- Jeremy Senglin for Weber State hit his second game-winner in a week, this time hitting a three with 2.4 seconds left to cap a late comeback win over Oral Roberts. Senglin told Brett Hein he thought the Wildcats were down three rather than two, which helps explain the shot selection. Video and quotes can be found here.
The fact that he may not have known the margin changes this storyline a little bit, but the shot and the possession brought up an interesting look at the process versus the outcome in how we should evaluate things. The shot was good because it went in and gave them the win, but the possession itself was not very good. Down two (again, this is complicated if he really thought it was a three point game), the possession was ugly, filled with a bunch of dribbling on the perimeter and then a long three attempt. He was bailed out in a sense by the shot going in, but overall it wasn't a great look.
The Wildcats are now 3-3 with a neutral court win over Nevada and home win against Oral Roberts, but the fact that they are a young team is still clear. The biggest issues seem to be taking care of the ball, and finding someone other than Joel Bolomboy to rebound the ball, but the talent is still evident. Still, while Senglin has struggled a bit adapting to the full-time ball handling role, Bolomboy has shown more assertiveness offensively (with mixed results), and maybe most importantly, Richaud Gittens looks like a star right now. Their future is very bright.
- Eastern Washington continues to win, as they're number 117 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings and top 60 by the RPI. They have gotten absurd efficiency from their guards (Drew Brandon, Tyler Harvey, and Parker Kelly), while Venky Jois appears to have taken a big step forward. Offensively, they have been excellent. I think teams know how much they like to shoot threes, and that has given them good looks inside the arc, where they have been dynamite.
Their next five games are on the road - Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, Sam Houston State, and California. We should find out during this stretch if their ceiling is that of a team that could be a major threat in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament, or merely as the best team in the Big Sky. Either way, they have established themselves as the early favorites in the Big Sky with their play so far.
- Northern Colorado has been flying under the radar a bit, but they are a good team. While they have again shown some struggles defensively so far, they could be behind only EWU in terms of their offensive prowess. They have been excellent shooting the ball, as well as taking care of it. It could be partly due to the early schedule, but they look deep... only four teams in the country have given more minutes to their bench in DI games. They may not have a star, but they have a lot of good players.
- Sacramento State is 4-1, but I don't know that we've learned much from their games so sfar. One positive development for them is that Nick Hornsby is playing well early on, but that is mostly due to his unsustainable 12/18 FG. They should still be contenders, but there's not much new information on them.
- Kudos deserve to be given to Brian Fish who got the first win of his head coaching career in a 104-81 Montana State win over UT-Arlington. Kudos also to Southern Utah, who snapped a very long road losing streak with this shot from AJ Hess. In case you missed it, here it is again!
AJs 40 ft shot to for first season WIN at the Buzzer 93-92 from Barbara H Hess on Vimeo.
- Martin Breunig has been as good as advertised for Montana, shooting 20/29 on two-point FG against DI opponents, while showing great rebounding ability. Montana has mixed some good performances with puzzling ones, but Breunig still looks like a star.
- On Saturday, Northern Arizona lost a slobber knocker, 40-36, to North Carolina Central. It's not a good loss, but maybe not quite as bad as it sounds. UNCC plays at a snail's pace, and they have been pretty good defensively. At 2-5, the Jacks look like they could be one of the better defensive teams in the conference, but they are struggling a little bit defensively. Still, the 2-5 record basically means nothing, because they've played a very tough slate of opponents so far.
- On the whole, Idaho has been about what we expected - a team that looks like it will score a bunch of points, but not be able to stop anyone on the other end. Their defensive efficiency is #338 in the country... they haven't forced turnovers, and teams are shooting the ball very well against them. Still, there are positives. Mike Scott looks like the breakout senior player for the Vandals, shooting 12/21 from downtown while sporting a cool 26:2 assist to turnover ratio. Perrion Callandret has also started well, and I will have to eat some crow to an Idaho fan who emailed me about him if that continues.
Each week and each game provides some more data points, as the 5-7 games each team has played so far don't give us too much to go on. Things look to be as competitive as they promised to be before the year began. Anything else that you have noticed?
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Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Montana Outlook
It's time to get ready for the Big Sky season again with some overviews of each team this month, and then eventually we'll get into more detailed looks at everything.
What They Lost: The biggest lost is the head coach, Wayne Tinkle, who left to take the top job at Oregon State. Tinkle had great success with the Grizzlies, and was widely seen as the top coach in the Big Sky. Travis DeCuire looks to be an excellent coach, but Tinkle is a tough act to follow. The other major loss is do-everything Kareem Jamar. If you are reading this, you likely know all about Jamar, who was one of the three best players (and arguably the best) in the Big Sky over the past three seasons.
The other loss of note is guard Keron DeShields, who transferred out. Last year, he improved to be a solid starter for them, but I think they have the pieces in place so that this won't be a major loss for the team. They also lose big men Andy Martin and Eric Hutchison, but neither loss should be felt too much.
Who Returns: Guard Jordan Gregory returns for his senior year, and he could be one of the leading scorers in the conference. Consistently efficient (60% True Shooting Percentage, low TO Rate), he could get more opportunities with Jamar gone, but could also have to deal with being the focal point of the offense. Either way, he's a nice building block. Another key returnee in the backcourt is Mario Dunn, who could be a breakout star in the conference. Though a bit raw offensively as a freshman, he has the physical tools to be above average there as a sophomore, while becoming one of the best defensive players in the Big Sky, in the mold of Will Cherry. Seeing how much he improved from year one to year two could be one of the most interesting storylines in the Big Sky.
They return some depth on the wing, with Riley Bradshaw and Brandon Gfeller both potential sparkplugs offensively with their shooting ability. Upfront, Michael Weisner is one of the biggest weapons in the Big Sky - a stretch four that shoots 50% from downtown. He is a big weapon for them. Another returner upfront is forward Chris Kemp, who had an uneven debut season as a junior. There are games he looks like a good starter, and others where he is a bench guy. They could use some consistency from him.
Newcomers: The guy with the biggest impact will be big man Martin Breunig, who is eligible after sitting out last year due to transfer rules. He originally committed to Maryland before signing at Washington, and is an athletic big with a versatile skill set. I'll be writing more about him before the year, but he could be an all-conference player in his first year in Missoula.
Bryden Boehning is a good prospect at center, but it will likely take him a couple years to make a true impact. Forward Fabijan Krslovic from Australia could see some time as a true freshman, as a 6'8'' post with some offensive skills. I wouldn't expect a huge impact in year one, but he should play and grow into a role as a solid bench player for them right away.
General Outlook: Like many others, there is a wide variance possible for Montana. If things break right, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them competing for a Big Sky title in year one of Travis DeCuire. If Gregory isn't able to keep his efficiency with more responsibility, or Breunig can't provide that inside presence they've been missing, they could fall into the mid-tier. Preseason, I currently have them slotted in at number four.
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What They Lost: The biggest lost is the head coach, Wayne Tinkle, who left to take the top job at Oregon State. Tinkle had great success with the Grizzlies, and was widely seen as the top coach in the Big Sky. Travis DeCuire looks to be an excellent coach, but Tinkle is a tough act to follow. The other major loss is do-everything Kareem Jamar. If you are reading this, you likely know all about Jamar, who was one of the three best players (and arguably the best) in the Big Sky over the past three seasons.
The other loss of note is guard Keron DeShields, who transferred out. Last year, he improved to be a solid starter for them, but I think they have the pieces in place so that this won't be a major loss for the team. They also lose big men Andy Martin and Eric Hutchison, but neither loss should be felt too much.
Who Returns: Guard Jordan Gregory returns for his senior year, and he could be one of the leading scorers in the conference. Consistently efficient (60% True Shooting Percentage, low TO Rate), he could get more opportunities with Jamar gone, but could also have to deal with being the focal point of the offense. Either way, he's a nice building block. Another key returnee in the backcourt is Mario Dunn, who could be a breakout star in the conference. Though a bit raw offensively as a freshman, he has the physical tools to be above average there as a sophomore, while becoming one of the best defensive players in the Big Sky, in the mold of Will Cherry. Seeing how much he improved from year one to year two could be one of the most interesting storylines in the Big Sky.
They return some depth on the wing, with Riley Bradshaw and Brandon Gfeller both potential sparkplugs offensively with their shooting ability. Upfront, Michael Weisner is one of the biggest weapons in the Big Sky - a stretch four that shoots 50% from downtown. He is a big weapon for them. Another returner upfront is forward Chris Kemp, who had an uneven debut season as a junior. There are games he looks like a good starter, and others where he is a bench guy. They could use some consistency from him.
Newcomers: The guy with the biggest impact will be big man Martin Breunig, who is eligible after sitting out last year due to transfer rules. He originally committed to Maryland before signing at Washington, and is an athletic big with a versatile skill set. I'll be writing more about him before the year, but he could be an all-conference player in his first year in Missoula.
Bryden Boehning is a good prospect at center, but it will likely take him a couple years to make a true impact. Forward Fabijan Krslovic from Australia could see some time as a true freshman, as a 6'8'' post with some offensive skills. I wouldn't expect a huge impact in year one, but he should play and grow into a role as a solid bench player for them right away.
General Outlook: Like many others, there is a wide variance possible for Montana. If things break right, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them competing for a Big Sky title in year one of Travis DeCuire. If Gregory isn't able to keep his efficiency with more responsibility, or Breunig can't provide that inside presence they've been missing, they could fall into the mid-tier. Preseason, I currently have them slotted in at number four.
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Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Montana Lands Washington Transfer Martin Breunig
While it won't help their frontline this year, Montana made a big step towards improving the frontcourt for the next couple of years, landing Martin Breunig, a transfer from Washington.
He played less than 200 minutes in his two seasons at Washington, but figures to have a much better shot of cracking the rotation for the Grizzlies. Here is a scouting report from a couple years ago, when he was scheduled to be playing for Maryland:
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"We are very excited about signing Martin Breunig at the University of Montana," Tinkle said. "He's a strong, athletic post player, and he really adds good size and strength to our front line."Per transfer rules, Breunig will have to sit out a year, and will be a junior eligibility-wise when he suits up in 2014-15. He originally committed to Maryland before landing at Washington, so it is a caliber of recruit that usually isn't seen on the Big Sky level.
He played less than 200 minutes in his two seasons at Washington, but figures to have a much better shot of cracking the rotation for the Grizzlies. Here is a scouting report from a couple years ago, when he was scheduled to be playing for Maryland:
Strengths:Come 2014-15, all of a sudden, the Grizzlies should have a deep and experienced frontcourt.
Breunig is an intriguing post prospect with a variety of tools and good upside. He has good hands and feet, able to catch cleanly in congestion and pretty mobile for a player his size moving both side to side as well as up and down the court. He has good touch around the basket and can face up to consistently make mid-range jumpers and even stretch the defense out to the three-point line at times. Physically, he has a ripped frame with good muscle mass as well as definition.
Weaknesses:
Breunig is much more comfortable facing the basket outside the paint than he is battling inside around the rim. While he has a very strong body he is still getting adjusted to the physicality of the American game and not yet assertive enough against contact. He needs to become a more consistent rebounder and finisher inside the paint and more of a low post scoring threat. He also needs more consistent shooting mechanics to capitalize on his touch facing the basket as his form and release point can both be inconsistent.
Bottom Line:
Breunig may not be ready to make an immediate contribution upon reaching Maryland but given a year or two of development he definitely has the tools to eventually be a productive big man in the ACC.
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