Once again there are five games on the Big Sky slate for Thursday night, so let's take a crack at some predictions!
Weber State 75, @ Southern Utah 59
The records (WSU 4-0, SUU 3-1) make this one seem like a marquee Big Sky matchup, but I'm not sure it's going to play out that way. Weber State has been really good lately, and they are in the top 90 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (put another way, Montana is second best in each, and they are 170th in the country in both adjusted offense and defense). Simply put, by the efficiency numbers, Weber State is the best team in the conference and it's not all that close. Southern Utah will struggle to score in this game.
Montana 67, @ North Dakota 65
You know the Grizzlies will be motivated, because they went into Grand Forks last season and got beat by North Dakota in OT. But I'm not sure North Dakota is as good as it was last year - it's Adj D has dropped from 209th last year to 300th this year. They just aren't getting stops. On the other side, the fact that Will Cherry has gotten to the line 21 times in the last two games is a good sign for the health of his foot - he is being aggressive going to the rim. The Grizzlies are slowly finding their groove.
@ Northern Colorado 74, Montana State 70
UNC looked very bad in their last outing, but it was their fourth straight road game. Of their 12 games this year, nine have been away from home, and two of those home games were against non-DI competition. So you have to figure they will be excited for this game. They had better be, because the Bobcats have showed a lot of scrappiness in the last two games. The key will be how well the Bears hold onto the ball - they are 306th in the country in turnover percentage, while MSU is 51st in the country at forcing turnovers. Tevin Svihovec, your team needs you. I think they will respond.
@ Portland State 67, Sacramento State 62
The Vikings have quietly played pretty good basketball lately. They lost to WSU at home in OT, and then went on the road and gave Montana State and Montana good games. Meanwhile, the Hornets played a slobberknocker on Monday night, a game that had to be mentally and physically draining. For PSU, Aaron Moore is starting to make a bid to be an all-conference player, as he has three straight double-doubles and is fourth in the Big Sky in rebounding.
@ Eastern Washington 81, Northern Arizona 71
This one will be in Cheney, and could be the most entertaining game of the night. EWU simply has to start playing better defense - so far this season they have been the worst defensive team in the conference. For NAU, DeWayne Russell continues to lead the conference in scoring (16.6 PPG), but he has struggled a bit over the last six games. But at this point in the year, it's not farfetched to say he has an argument to be the player of the year. Another strong freshman is Venky Jois for EWU, who leads the Big Sky in rebounding (9.1 per game).
What are your thoughts?
Last Week: 4-1
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Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Predicting the Best Games Of The Week
It will be a bit of a quiet week in the Big Sky, with Christmas almost upon us, but there will still be a few games worth watching this week. Here are some thoughts on some of the intriguing matchups.
@ St. Mary's 74, Eastern Washington 64 (12/19)
This will depend on which Eagles team shows up. If it is the team that was solid this year at forcing turnovers and hitting outside shots, this is a game they can win. But they have been a little too inconsistent of late, last week putting up an anemic offensive performance against UCLA before sneaking by Pacific Lutheran. St. Mary's is simply the better team at this point in the year.
@ New Mexico 77, Montana State 63 (12/20)
It is a very difficult team to go into New Mexico and win in The Pit, and the Bobcats don't quite have that talent level. It will be a nice test for them heading into the Big Sky season, to go into a hostile environment and play. Xavier Blount is emerging as a great weapon for them, and they will need him to be a star to stay in this game.
@ Weber State 74, Utah 54 (12/22)
Weber State is banged up and coming off of a tough game against California, but they should win this game big. They are the better, more talented team, and playing in Ogden. Damian Lillard will look to get back on track after a surprisingly poor performance against Cal. Hopefully this is a game for the Wildcats to get back in sync.
Wyoming 75, @ Idaho State 61 (12/22)
Wyoming is a solid club this year, as they sit at 11-1 and have the look of being in the upper half of the Moutain West. They have been efficient offensively and one of the best defensive teams in the country. That is bad news for Idaho State, who looks like they might be one of the worst Division I teams out there after their 12 point loss to Utah. Chase Grabau is a real nice player, but there are not a lot of other positive for Jim O'Brien.
Colorado State 69, @ Northern Colorado 65 (12/22)
This should be a pretty competitive game. The Rams are solid, but they are not as talented as they were last season. UNC can definitely win this game, but I think they will come up a little short. They are a young team that is still learning how to win games. It will be a battle of the guards, and the Bears need Paul Garnica and Tate Unruh to hit some outside shots.
Portland State 87, @ Cal State Fullerton 84 (12/22)
The Vikings are doing some good things offensively, but they have been bad defensively, there is no other way to say it. Cal State Fullerton is similar in that they are good offensively but have had their struggles on defense. Expect a high-scoring, entertaining game, with the Vikings having a little bit more in them.
Last Week: 6-2
Season Record: 20-10
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
This will depend on which Eagles team shows up. If it is the team that was solid this year at forcing turnovers and hitting outside shots, this is a game they can win. But they have been a little too inconsistent of late, last week putting up an anemic offensive performance against UCLA before sneaking by Pacific Lutheran. St. Mary's is simply the better team at this point in the year.
@ New Mexico 77, Montana State 63 (12/20)
It is a very difficult team to go into New Mexico and win in The Pit, and the Bobcats don't quite have that talent level. It will be a nice test for them heading into the Big Sky season, to go into a hostile environment and play. Xavier Blount is emerging as a great weapon for them, and they will need him to be a star to stay in this game.
@ Weber State 74, Utah 54 (12/22)
Weber State is banged up and coming off of a tough game against California, but they should win this game big. They are the better, more talented team, and playing in Ogden. Damian Lillard will look to get back on track after a surprisingly poor performance against Cal. Hopefully this is a game for the Wildcats to get back in sync.
Wyoming 75, @ Idaho State 61 (12/22)
Wyoming is a solid club this year, as they sit at 11-1 and have the look of being in the upper half of the Moutain West. They have been efficient offensively and one of the best defensive teams in the country. That is bad news for Idaho State, who looks like they might be one of the worst Division I teams out there after their 12 point loss to Utah. Chase Grabau is a real nice player, but there are not a lot of other positive for Jim O'Brien.
This should be a pretty competitive game. The Rams are solid, but they are not as talented as they were last season. UNC can definitely win this game, but I think they will come up a little short. They are a young team that is still learning how to win games. It will be a battle of the guards, and the Bears need Paul Garnica and Tate Unruh to hit some outside shots.
Portland State 87, @ Cal State Fullerton 84 (12/22)
The Vikings are doing some good things offensively, but they have been bad defensively, there is no other way to say it. Cal State Fullerton is similar in that they are good offensively but have had their struggles on defense. Expect a high-scoring, entertaining game, with the Vikings having a little bit more in them.
Last Week: 6-2
Season Record: 20-10
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Predictions For The Week Ahead
It should be a good week ahead for the Big Sky, as we get into the heart of non-conference play and the always busy Thanksgiving weekend time.
@ Montana State 67, Seattle 58 (11/22)
Portland State needed a last-second shot to beat Seattle, but the Bobcats have some momentum after beating Utah, and they will be playing with a lot of confidence. Montana State will eventually need to find a go-to guy, but for now their balance is their strength. They have a lot of guys that can hurt you.
Iowa State 77, Northern Colorado 63 (11/22)
Iowa State is simply a bit more talented than UNC, as the Bears will have their hands full trying to slow down Royce White.So far this year, White has shown all of the talent that originally made him a high recruit, with averages of 23 and 12.5 through two games. UNC will need to be firing from the outside if they want to have a chance in this game.
Eastern Washington 71, @ Hawaii 67 (11/22)
It is never easy to go to Hawaii and play, but there is something I like about this Eastern Washington group. They have played Gonzaga and Oregon very tough on the road, and I think they can pull one out against Hawaii. They will need good games from Collin Chiverton and Cliff Colimon, two guys that have looked very solid so far this year. EWU is reliant on the three-point shot, so they will need it to be falling.
Montana 63, @ North Dakota 58 (11/23)
North Dakota is a talented team. They beat Idaho State pretty easily at home, and gave Bradley all the wanted on the road. But they are still a young team, and I think they will struggle with the defensive intensity of Montana. It will be a matchup of the guards, especially if Derek Selvig is still unable to go. While UND's guards are good, Montana's are a little more complete.
@ Wyoming 70, Portland State 65 (11/25)
Wyoming beat UNC soundly at home, and this one will be in Laramie. Portland State is certainly good enough to win this, but they have been a bit uneven so far this year. They laid an egg offensively against Denver, and they needed a furious comeback to beat a middling Seattle team at home. I see them falling behind early, and spending the rest of the game catching up.
@ Idaho 65, Montana State 61 (11/26)
Montana dominated the first half when they played Idaho, before struggling in the second half. As I talked about earlier, the Bobcats are off to a nice start, but it will be a road test going to Idaho on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Idaho has been a solid three-point shooting team, so Montana State will have to guard the perimeter.
@ Montana 68, Long Beach State 67 (11/26)
The game of the week in the Big Sky, and this prediction is based on the fact that I think Derek Selvig will be able to play by the time this game rolls around. LBSU was already a popular Cinderella pick before the year, and then they went and beat #9 Pittsburgh. They are very talented, lead by PG Casper Ware. Montana is pretty good themselves, and they are looking for a signature win out of conference, and this is one that would hold up well. This pick is based on the fact that I think Will Cherry, the best defender in the BSC, can slow down Ware.
Utah State 67, @ Idaho State 57 (11/26)
With the way New Mexico State has played this year, I am not so sure that Utah State is still the favorite in the WAC, but they still have plenty of talent to take down the Bengals. Idaho State needs Melvin Morgan to start playing like the guy he was hyped up to be. This game is in Pocatello, but it is hard to see the Bengals pulling off the upset.
Any games that you disagree on?
Season Record: 6-3
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
@ Montana State 67, Seattle 58 (11/22)
Portland State needed a last-second shot to beat Seattle, but the Bobcats have some momentum after beating Utah, and they will be playing with a lot of confidence. Montana State will eventually need to find a go-to guy, but for now their balance is their strength. They have a lot of guys that can hurt you.
Iowa State 77, Northern Colorado 63 (11/22)
Iowa State is simply a bit more talented than UNC, as the Bears will have their hands full trying to slow down Royce White.So far this year, White has shown all of the talent that originally made him a high recruit, with averages of 23 and 12.5 through two games. UNC will need to be firing from the outside if they want to have a chance in this game.
Eastern Washington 71, @ Hawaii 67 (11/22)
It is never easy to go to Hawaii and play, but there is something I like about this Eastern Washington group. They have played Gonzaga and Oregon very tough on the road, and I think they can pull one out against Hawaii. They will need good games from Collin Chiverton and Cliff Colimon, two guys that have looked very solid so far this year. EWU is reliant on the three-point shot, so they will need it to be falling.
Montana 63, @ North Dakota 58 (11/23)
North Dakota is a talented team. They beat Idaho State pretty easily at home, and gave Bradley all the wanted on the road. But they are still a young team, and I think they will struggle with the defensive intensity of Montana. It will be a matchup of the guards, especially if Derek Selvig is still unable to go. While UND's guards are good, Montana's are a little more complete.
@ Wyoming 70, Portland State 65 (11/25)
Wyoming beat UNC soundly at home, and this one will be in Laramie. Portland State is certainly good enough to win this, but they have been a bit uneven so far this year. They laid an egg offensively against Denver, and they needed a furious comeback to beat a middling Seattle team at home. I see them falling behind early, and spending the rest of the game catching up.
@ Idaho 65, Montana State 61 (11/26)
Montana dominated the first half when they played Idaho, before struggling in the second half. As I talked about earlier, the Bobcats are off to a nice start, but it will be a road test going to Idaho on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Idaho has been a solid three-point shooting team, so Montana State will have to guard the perimeter.
@ Montana 68, Long Beach State 67 (11/26)
The game of the week in the Big Sky, and this prediction is based on the fact that I think Derek Selvig will be able to play by the time this game rolls around. LBSU was already a popular Cinderella pick before the year, and then they went and beat #9 Pittsburgh. They are very talented, lead by PG Casper Ware. Montana is pretty good themselves, and they are looking for a signature win out of conference, and this is one that would hold up well. This pick is based on the fact that I think Will Cherry, the best defender in the BSC, can slow down Ware.
Utah State 67, @ Idaho State 57 (11/26)
With the way New Mexico State has played this year, I am not so sure that Utah State is still the favorite in the WAC, but they still have plenty of talent to take down the Bengals. Idaho State needs Melvin Morgan to start playing like the guy he was hyped up to be. This game is in Pocatello, but it is hard to see the Bengals pulling off the upset.
Any games that you disagree on?
Season Record: 6-3
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Monday, November 7, 2011
Predicting the Season Openers
The time has finally come... the season is almost here! I will be posting a large season preview tomorrow (tell your friends and/or neighbors), but for now, let's make a prediction on each team's opener!
Montana 65, @ Colorado State 62 - Both teams lost their star big men (and this is especially true if Derek Selvig is out), so this could come down to a battle of the guards. If it does, I like Will Cherry, Kareem Jamar, and Art Steward a little more than Dorian Green, Jesse Carr, and Wes Eikmeier.
Portland State 72, @ Denver 68 - Denver won the Sun Belt West last year, so they have become a solid program. If you judge based on last year, Denver should be favored (and Ken Pom does have them favored). But I think good things are going on in the Vikings program, starting with a road win against a solid Mid-Major opponent.
@ Sacramento State 71, Menlo 54 - This one should be no contest, and that is what I expect. It is a nice confidence booster for the Hornets, to begin the year on the right side of .500 and have a chance to get a little more experience and a little better feel for their rotation.
@ Weber State 83, Northern New Mexico 59 - Once again, a game that should be no contest, and if this game is ever in doubt Weber State is doing something wrong. Home fans get their first look again at Damian Lillard in a regular season game, and I suspect they'll like what they see. This one is a warmup for November 15th, when Utah State comes to Ogden.
@ Arizona State 72, Montana State 62 - This is a game that the Bobcats absolutely can win, as they have the talent to match up athletically with an Arizona State team that is not projected to make the NCAAs. I think the Sun Devils will still have a little too much talented (and Herb Sendek will have them ready to play), but believe me, Montana State thinks they are going to win this game.
@ Oklahoma 73, Idaho State 57 - Oklahoma is a program that is still down (it will take Lon Kruger some time), so the Bengals should be able to keep this a game. But they simply don't have the firepower to match up with a Big Six school, especially since this game is in Norman.
Northern Arizona 71, Louisiana Lafayette 65 - This is another Big Sky vs Sun Belt tilt, and this one will be in San Francisco for the Hilltop Challenge. I think Stallon Saldivar will make the difference, as he provides the steady play at PG that every team needs. With three games in three days, we will learn a lot about Northern Arizona this weekend.
@ Gonzaga 79, Eastern Washington 64 - Well, if EWU can pull this off, Jim Hayford will immediately become a hero in Cheney. Unfortunately, even though I am high on the Eagles, I don't think they have the talent level to match up with Gonzaga, who should win the WCC once again. But Gonzaga better not sleep on Eastern Washington, they could get shocked.
New Mexico State 67, @ Northern Colorado 63 - New Mexico State will be one of the top 3 teams in the WAC, and UNC thinks they will be one of the top 3 teams in the Big Sky. It will be one of the most intriguing games of the Big Sky weekend. If these met again later in the year I think UNC wins, but I think they will just need a little time to get things together.
What do you think of the games? Who do you think is going win? Would love to hear thoughts.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Montana 65, @ Colorado State 62 - Both teams lost their star big men (and this is especially true if Derek Selvig is out), so this could come down to a battle of the guards. If it does, I like Will Cherry, Kareem Jamar, and Art Steward a little more than Dorian Green, Jesse Carr, and Wes Eikmeier.
Portland State 72, @ Denver 68 - Denver won the Sun Belt West last year, so they have become a solid program. If you judge based on last year, Denver should be favored (and Ken Pom does have them favored). But I think good things are going on in the Vikings program, starting with a road win against a solid Mid-Major opponent.
@ Sacramento State 71, Menlo 54 - This one should be no contest, and that is what I expect. It is a nice confidence booster for the Hornets, to begin the year on the right side of .500 and have a chance to get a little more experience and a little better feel for their rotation.
@ Weber State 83, Northern New Mexico 59 - Once again, a game that should be no contest, and if this game is ever in doubt Weber State is doing something wrong. Home fans get their first look again at Damian Lillard in a regular season game, and I suspect they'll like what they see. This one is a warmup for November 15th, when Utah State comes to Ogden.
@ Arizona State 72, Montana State 62 - This is a game that the Bobcats absolutely can win, as they have the talent to match up athletically with an Arizona State team that is not projected to make the NCAAs. I think the Sun Devils will still have a little too much talented (and Herb Sendek will have them ready to play), but believe me, Montana State thinks they are going to win this game.
@ Oklahoma 73, Idaho State 57 - Oklahoma is a program that is still down (it will take Lon Kruger some time), so the Bengals should be able to keep this a game. But they simply don't have the firepower to match up with a Big Six school, especially since this game is in Norman.
Northern Arizona 71, Louisiana Lafayette 65 - This is another Big Sky vs Sun Belt tilt, and this one will be in San Francisco for the Hilltop Challenge. I think Stallon Saldivar will make the difference, as he provides the steady play at PG that every team needs. With three games in three days, we will learn a lot about Northern Arizona this weekend.
@ Gonzaga 79, Eastern Washington 64 - Well, if EWU can pull this off, Jim Hayford will immediately become a hero in Cheney. Unfortunately, even though I am high on the Eagles, I don't think they have the talent level to match up with Gonzaga, who should win the WCC once again. But Gonzaga better not sleep on Eastern Washington, they could get shocked.
New Mexico State 67, @ Northern Colorado 63 - New Mexico State will be one of the top 3 teams in the WAC, and UNC thinks they will be one of the top 3 teams in the Big Sky. It will be one of the most intriguing games of the Big Sky weekend. If these met again later in the year I think UNC wins, but I think they will just need a little time to get things together.
What do you think of the games? Who do you think is going win? Would love to hear thoughts.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
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