Hope that you all have (or did have) a Happy New Year!
My wife and I are celebrating New Year's in Times Square, which is either the best or worst decision of our lives! So, it will be one more quiet week at the site. When I get back, conference play should be starting to get into full force, and things will accordingly pick up here!
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Northern Colorado Makes Big Statement in Victory Over North Dakota
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It was an impressive effort that saw UNC take care of business in all facets of the game. They shot 60% from the floor while holding UND to 39% shooting. They outrebounded UND by 16. At one point in the first half, they turned an 11-7 deficit into a 32-11 lead thanks to a 25-0 run. Their gameplan was sound, and they executed it perfectly.
North Dakota came into the game allowing opponents to shoot 57% on two-pointers, and they showed today that was not a fluke. They constantly took chances defensively (and to their credit, they did force 20 turnovers), but when they didn't cause a steal, it would often result in open lanes for the Bears, who got a ton of easy looks. At times, North Dakota looked hopeless on help defense, and guys would drive from the three-point line all the way in for an open layup, which simply shouldn't happen. The Bears shot 22/36 inside the arc.
On the contrary, Northern Colorado played excellent defense all day, holding the powerful duo of Aaron Anderson and Troy Huff to 20 points on 5/21 FG. They switched all ball screens, which is a luxury BJ Hill has with big men as agile as Derrick Barden and Dominique Lee, who were both outstanding. North Dakota got some open looks outside, but they are at their best when they are able to attack the rim and score in transition, and the Bears packed things in so that UND wasn't able to get to the rim often. It was a great defensive performance, and at times UND simply had no answers in the half-court offense.
Another nice thing that UNC showed was a three-quarter court trapping press, similar to one that Montana uses. While they didn't really force a lot of turnovers, it really slowed North Dakota down and made them take a lot of time to get into their sets.
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One bright spot for North Dakota was the play of Jaron Nash, who consistently finished well at the rim, as he was able to create angles using his athleticism. He finished with 22 points on 10/14 shooting.
North Dakota will have better days than this for sure, but for one day at the start of the conference season, Northern Colorado looked every bit the conference title contender that the non-conference season showed that they could be. It's back to the drawing board for UND, especially defensively, but for now, Northern Colorado will wake up on Monday morning as the Big Sky leaders.
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Friday, December 27, 2013
Northern Arizona Might Be Better Than You Think
Most observers of the Big Sky know two things about Northern Arizona. One is that leading scorer DeWayne Russell transferred from the program right before the start of the season. Two is that the team is 3-8 heading into conference play. Based on those things, it would be reasonable to assume that the Lumberjacks will be closer to the bottom of the conference than competing for a conference tournament spot.
However, they are a team that could be right in the thick of things for the number six seed.
Like Weber State, most of their losses have come against quality competition, and they have not looked terrible against that competition. Among their losses:
- A four point road loss to USC (KenPom ranking: 100) in a game they led by 10 at the half.
- A 12 point road loss to Loyola Marymount (142), who is 8-4. This was also a tight game throughout.
- A four point road loss at Fresno State (142) in overtime, in a game that they also led heading into the final ten minutes.
- A 10 point home loss to Hawaii (113) in a game that was tied at the half. Hawaii just beat St. Mary's and Oregon State.
Obviously, it would have been nice if they could have won a couple of these games. But, they are staying in close games against solid competition, often on the road. That could be a positive harbinger for a better than expected conference season, because eventually some of the luck is going to go their way.
They are still finding their offense (0.96 PPP against DI competition), but their defense has been surprisingly okay. They are allowing 1.05 PPP, which is actually fourth best in the Big Sky. They are especially doing a good job of forcing turnovers, with an 18.8% turnover rate forced.
They have an excellent inside scorer in Max Jacobsen, who continues to shoot over 60% in the post. Junior guard Quinton Upshur has struggled with his outside shot, but he can be a dynamic weapon if his jumper gets a little more consistent. Guys like Aaseem Dixon and Gaellen Bewernick are talented as well.
NAU's record at 3-8 is not where they would want it to be, obviously. They have a lot to figure out still, especially on the offensive end. But don't sleep on the Lumberjacks, because they are better than you think, and they just might be a Big Sky tournament team once again, which would be a nice feat for Jack Murphy in a rebuilding program.
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However, they are a team that could be right in the thick of things for the number six seed.
Like Weber State, most of their losses have come against quality competition, and they have not looked terrible against that competition. Among their losses:
- A four point road loss to USC (KenPom ranking: 100) in a game they led by 10 at the half.
- A 12 point road loss to Loyola Marymount (142), who is 8-4. This was also a tight game throughout.
- A four point road loss at Fresno State (142) in overtime, in a game that they also led heading into the final ten minutes.
- A 10 point home loss to Hawaii (113) in a game that was tied at the half. Hawaii just beat St. Mary's and Oregon State.
Obviously, it would have been nice if they could have won a couple of these games. But, they are staying in close games against solid competition, often on the road. That could be a positive harbinger for a better than expected conference season, because eventually some of the luck is going to go their way.
They are still finding their offense (0.96 PPP against DI competition), but their defense has been surprisingly okay. They are allowing 1.05 PPP, which is actually fourth best in the Big Sky. They are especially doing a good job of forcing turnovers, with an 18.8% turnover rate forced.
They have an excellent inside scorer in Max Jacobsen, who continues to shoot over 60% in the post. Junior guard Quinton Upshur has struggled with his outside shot, but he can be a dynamic weapon if his jumper gets a little more consistent. Guys like Aaseem Dixon and Gaellen Bewernick are talented as well.
NAU's record at 3-8 is not where they would want it to be, obviously. They have a lot to figure out still, especially on the offensive end. But don't sleep on the Lumberjacks, because they are better than you think, and they just might be a Big Sky tournament team once again, which would be a nice feat for Jack Murphy in a rebuilding program.
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Thursday, December 26, 2013
A Look At The Big Sky Title Contenders
With conference play almost upon us, it looks like there is a clear divide between the top five teams in the conference and the rest. With that being the case, let's take a look at those five teams, and compare the case for them and the case against them.
EASTERN WASHINGTON
The case for: When they are on, they might have the most explosive offense in the conference. Tyler Harvey has taken the next step in the backcourt, and Venky Jois is still one of the most productive big men in the Big Sky. Last year they had so many PG struggles after Justin Crogsile left, but Drew Brandon has stabilized that position nicely so far this year. They have shot the three-pointer well so far, and when guys like Harvey are shooting well, they can beat anyone.
The case against: Despite that offensive power, they really haven't been consistently excellent on that end of the floor. They only shoot 61% from the FT line, and they don't get their very often with their style of play. Their two-point shooting has been average. They rely heavily on the three-point shot, which is not a bad strategy necessarily, but leaves them vulnerable if they have an off night or play a team that can take that away. Defensively, they have given up 1.06 PPP in DI games, 223rd in the nation. They have been poor at forcing turnovers. They are still a young team (only three members of the rotation are juniors, and none are seniors), so they are still growing a lot from game to game.
MONTANA
The case for: This is the same as we thought in the preseason - they have the best player and the best coach in the conference. Over the past two seasons, they literally have not lost a Big Sky game that they shouldn't have. When they are supposed to win a game, they do, and no other team can say that. Also, Kareem Jamar is playing the best basketball of his career, and so far looks like the conference POY again.
The case against: It's still hard to say where the interior production comes from. Among the five guys that get the most minutes for the Grizzlies, Michael Weisner is the only one over 6'5'', and he is more of a three-point specialist than inside player. They don't get offensive rebound and they don't get easy baskets off post play. Defensively, they haven't forced turnovers (14.5 Turnover % forced - 336th in the country), and teams have shot the ball very well against them. We'll have to see is that regresses to the mean, but so far they have missed Will Cherry more defensively than offensively.
NORTH DAKOTA
The case for: Athletically, they still match up favorably to everyone in the conference. That is why they have to be included in this list even though they only have one win against DI competition. They have played a tough schedule and not really been up to the task, but they are still contenders. Troy Huff has been his usual self, and looks like the second best player in the conference after Jamar. Defensively, they do a good job of using pressure to force some turnovers, with guys like Huff (5.0 Steal %), Jaron Nash (4.1%) and Jamal Webb (3.6%) all excellent at forcing turnovers.
The case against: The easiest case against them comes from checking out their numbers defending at the rim against two-pointers. Opposing teams are shooting 57.3% percent on two-pointers against UND, one of the worst rates in the country. On twitter, I have seen it described that once you get past UND's first line of defense, it's like a layup line. They are struggling to find consistency in terms of the frontcourt playing alongside Jaron Nash (another big concern), and it is showing up here. The other secret is that despite all of their talent and athletes, they haven't been a great offensive team the last few years. They score 1.01 PPP against DI teams so far, and even though that is a big improvement over their last few years, I'm still not sure that's good enough to win the conference.
NORTHERN COLORADO
The case for: So far, they have looked like the most impressive Big Sky team. For the past couple of years, they have struggled at the PG spot and with depth on the wing, but their signing of guys like Corey Spence and Jordan Wilson killed two birds with one stone, as Tevin Svihovec has thrived moving from the PG to SG. Their biggest strength is still Derrick Barden, who is among the biggest game-changers in the conference. He is one of the handful of guys that can take over a game. UNC is one of the most talented, balanced, and deep teams in the Big Sky.
The case against: Corey Spence was supposed to answer their PG questions, but he has mostly struggled, and Jordan Wilson got the start last game. Spence has the potential to be a really solid PG, but he has to cut down on turnovers and make some more shots (he is shooting under 39% this year) or the move to Wilson will be permanent. At the five spot, Connor Osborne has struggled majorly - he is shooting 37% from the line, and his offensive rebounding numbers are a little bit down, and that is the best part of his game. Dominique Lee should continue to grab more minutes there. Also, over the past couple of years, UNC has been very inconsistent, and there are some signs of that this year, with some harder than they should have been wins over Bethune Cookman, Prairie View A&M, and UC Riverside. But if they can bring it every night (and they should be able to - they are a very veteran team), they absolutely can win the Big Sky.
WEBER STATE
The case for: They have been the most disappointing team so far due to their lack of a big non-conference win (their best win is against San Jose State), but that can be partly due to a tough schedule, and still figuring things out in the backcourt. The reason for optimism is the same as it was before the year - they are, on paper, the most talented team in the Big Sky, and they have a track record of winning. Davion Berry playing well again, and taking up some of the distributing role. Kyle Tresnak and Joel Bolomboy have been a little up and down, but they are still the most imposing frontcourt duo in the conference. As the young guys continue to mature (Jeremy Senglin, Bolomboy, Richaud Gittens, Kyndahl Hill), the team should get better and better as the conference season goes along.
The case against: For the past three years, we have been talking about all of the talent for Weber State, but they haven't broken through and won the conference. A 2-5 start is distressing for any team, and they might be feeling a bit of pressure heading into conference play. The biggest issue, I think, it's that it's starting to be fair to wonder if Jordan Richardson will be able to transition to the off guard. He has continued to struggle... he has only taken nine two-pointers this year, and is shooting just 23.5% from downtown. It might be just a shooting slump, but they need him to play like they thought he would this year. Defensively, most of their struggles have come from not forcing turnovers (which has never been their strength), and not rebounding the ball well, which is a surprise. Opponents are rebounding almost 36% of their misses - last year they were a top 10 team in the nation in this mark.
Thoughts? Who is the favorite heading into conference play?
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EASTERN WASHINGTON
The case for: When they are on, they might have the most explosive offense in the conference. Tyler Harvey has taken the next step in the backcourt, and Venky Jois is still one of the most productive big men in the Big Sky. Last year they had so many PG struggles after Justin Crogsile left, but Drew Brandon has stabilized that position nicely so far this year. They have shot the three-pointer well so far, and when guys like Harvey are shooting well, they can beat anyone.
The case against: Despite that offensive power, they really haven't been consistently excellent on that end of the floor. They only shoot 61% from the FT line, and they don't get their very often with their style of play. Their two-point shooting has been average. They rely heavily on the three-point shot, which is not a bad strategy necessarily, but leaves them vulnerable if they have an off night or play a team that can take that away. Defensively, they have given up 1.06 PPP in DI games, 223rd in the nation. They have been poor at forcing turnovers. They are still a young team (only three members of the rotation are juniors, and none are seniors), so they are still growing a lot from game to game.
MONTANA
The case for: This is the same as we thought in the preseason - they have the best player and the best coach in the conference. Over the past two seasons, they literally have not lost a Big Sky game that they shouldn't have. When they are supposed to win a game, they do, and no other team can say that. Also, Kareem Jamar is playing the best basketball of his career, and so far looks like the conference POY again.
The case against: It's still hard to say where the interior production comes from. Among the five guys that get the most minutes for the Grizzlies, Michael Weisner is the only one over 6'5'', and he is more of a three-point specialist than inside player. They don't get offensive rebound and they don't get easy baskets off post play. Defensively, they haven't forced turnovers (14.5 Turnover % forced - 336th in the country), and teams have shot the ball very well against them. We'll have to see is that regresses to the mean, but so far they have missed Will Cherry more defensively than offensively.
NORTH DAKOTA
The case for: Athletically, they still match up favorably to everyone in the conference. That is why they have to be included in this list even though they only have one win against DI competition. They have played a tough schedule and not really been up to the task, but they are still contenders. Troy Huff has been his usual self, and looks like the second best player in the conference after Jamar. Defensively, they do a good job of using pressure to force some turnovers, with guys like Huff (5.0 Steal %), Jaron Nash (4.1%) and Jamal Webb (3.6%) all excellent at forcing turnovers.
The case against: The easiest case against them comes from checking out their numbers defending at the rim against two-pointers. Opposing teams are shooting 57.3% percent on two-pointers against UND, one of the worst rates in the country. On twitter, I have seen it described that once you get past UND's first line of defense, it's like a layup line. They are struggling to find consistency in terms of the frontcourt playing alongside Jaron Nash (another big concern), and it is showing up here. The other secret is that despite all of their talent and athletes, they haven't been a great offensive team the last few years. They score 1.01 PPP against DI teams so far, and even though that is a big improvement over their last few years, I'm still not sure that's good enough to win the conference.
NORTHERN COLORADO
The case for: So far, they have looked like the most impressive Big Sky team. For the past couple of years, they have struggled at the PG spot and with depth on the wing, but their signing of guys like Corey Spence and Jordan Wilson killed two birds with one stone, as Tevin Svihovec has thrived moving from the PG to SG. Their biggest strength is still Derrick Barden, who is among the biggest game-changers in the conference. He is one of the handful of guys that can take over a game. UNC is one of the most talented, balanced, and deep teams in the Big Sky.
The case against: Corey Spence was supposed to answer their PG questions, but he has mostly struggled, and Jordan Wilson got the start last game. Spence has the potential to be a really solid PG, but he has to cut down on turnovers and make some more shots (he is shooting under 39% this year) or the move to Wilson will be permanent. At the five spot, Connor Osborne has struggled majorly - he is shooting 37% from the line, and his offensive rebounding numbers are a little bit down, and that is the best part of his game. Dominique Lee should continue to grab more minutes there. Also, over the past couple of years, UNC has been very inconsistent, and there are some signs of that this year, with some harder than they should have been wins over Bethune Cookman, Prairie View A&M, and UC Riverside. But if they can bring it every night (and they should be able to - they are a very veteran team), they absolutely can win the Big Sky.
WEBER STATE
The case for: They have been the most disappointing team so far due to their lack of a big non-conference win (their best win is against San Jose State), but that can be partly due to a tough schedule, and still figuring things out in the backcourt. The reason for optimism is the same as it was before the year - they are, on paper, the most talented team in the Big Sky, and they have a track record of winning. Davion Berry playing well again, and taking up some of the distributing role. Kyle Tresnak and Joel Bolomboy have been a little up and down, but they are still the most imposing frontcourt duo in the conference. As the young guys continue to mature (Jeremy Senglin, Bolomboy, Richaud Gittens, Kyndahl Hill), the team should get better and better as the conference season goes along.
The case against: For the past three years, we have been talking about all of the talent for Weber State, but they haven't broken through and won the conference. A 2-5 start is distressing for any team, and they might be feeling a bit of pressure heading into conference play. The biggest issue, I think, it's that it's starting to be fair to wonder if Jordan Richardson will be able to transition to the off guard. He has continued to struggle... he has only taken nine two-pointers this year, and is shooting just 23.5% from downtown. It might be just a shooting slump, but they need him to play like they thought he would this year. Defensively, most of their struggles have come from not forcing turnovers (which has never been their strength), and not rebounding the ball well, which is a surprise. Opponents are rebounding almost 36% of their misses - last year they were a top 10 team in the nation in this mark.
Thoughts? Who is the favorite heading into conference play?
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Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Under the Radar Big Sky Players
Sometimes I find myself talking about a lot of the same players on this blog. So, I wanted to take a post to talk about some of the more "under the radar" guys on a few clubs, and take a look at their games. No real rhyme or reason, just some guys that don't get a lot of mentions, but could be interesting to take a look at.
- Tim Huskisson (Northern Colorado) - After starting the first two years of his career, he is unexpectedly UNC's sixth man so far this year, but has responded by playing his best per-minute basketball so far. Huskisson has always been a big talent, with some of the best athleticism in the Big Sky, along with a good outside stroke. He has always been efficient inside the arc, but this year he is 25/37, shooting 68% on twos. One aspect to his game that he has added is the ability to get steals, as he has a 4.5 Steal percentage, third in the Big Sky. He also has the best assist rate, and lowest turnover rate of his career. He is really developing in an all-around solid player, and that is a big reason why UNC has to be considered contenders this year. The key for him, as always, is consistency, but when he is playing well, he can be one of the best players in the Big Sky.
- Casey Oliverson (Southern Utah) - Oliverson is a sophomore in his first year with the Thunderbirds, and should have a nice career as a rotation guy for them. So far, his best skill is his offensive rebounding, with a 9.9% OR%, ninth in the conference. He has also flashed a little bit of skill as a shot-blocker, as he had three blocks against UC Riverside. He hasn't been a huge offensive threat so far (though he had a career-high ten points against Northridge), but he could be a nice fit for them as a rebounder.
- Brandon Gfeller (Montana) - He was too good for Montana to redshirt this year, and he is proving himself to be a reliable weapon off the bench. At this point in his career, he is just a shooter - but that is valuable for them right now. Gfeller is 11/24 from three-point range so far this year. He has only taken three twos (made all three), and he doesn't get many assists or add much defensively, but his range will be a nice asset for them this season.
- Max Jacobsen (Northern Arizona) - Don't look now, but Jacobsen has been the best post scorer in the Big Sky. He was one of the most improved players in the conference last season, and is showing that that improvement was no fluke. He has shot an astounding 63% on two-pointers (and it's not a sample size fluke - he is averaging almost 10 attempts per game), up from an already excellent 59% last year. He is not a great rebounder or defender, but if you get him the ball, he'll get you buckets. In a league without a lot of post scorers, that is huge.
- Andre Hatchett (Idaho State) - Hatchett is a guy that simply slots in for the Bengals wherever he is needed. In past years, he played a lot at the four spot. This year, he has been able to play a little more naturally at the three thanks to the addition of Jeffrey Solarin. While he has struggled this year offensively (only shooting about 40%), he has been a great defensive rebounder, which has been key for a team that struggled in that area last year. Still, like Gaellen Bewernick from NAU two years ago, I have a soft spot for undersized who do whatever the team needs. Hatchett is that guy.
- Cody Demps (Sacramento State) - Demps is an interesting player. He is 6'4'', but starts at the three spot for the Hornets, and does a lot of the little things for them. He rebounds 17.2% of available defensive rebounds, which is 11th in the Big Sky, and best on the team among guys that play at least 40% of the team's minutes. He is a solid passer and defender. However, there are still a lot of holes in his game. He turns the ball over way too much, with a 29.4 TO Rate. He is also still finding his way offensively. He is 14/28 on two-point attempts, but 4/15 from downtown, meaning he takes over two threes a game. For someone that is 9/35 in his career, that is way too many threes to take. He is a talented guy that can do some things, but until he finds a way to take better shots and take better care of the basketball, he is really holding the Hornets offense down.
- Terrell Brown (Montana State) - Brown has quietly been one of the better newcomers in the conference this year. While he is not shooting the three ball well so far this year, he has otherwise been efficient offensively. He has made 24/27 FTs, and 50% on two-point attempts. He doesn't turn the ball over. While he could be a better rebounder, if his outside shooting improves (and I think it will), he is an excellent complementary offensive weapon for the Bobcats.
Anyone else deserve a mention that doesn't get talked about much?
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- Tim Huskisson (Northern Colorado) - After starting the first two years of his career, he is unexpectedly UNC's sixth man so far this year, but has responded by playing his best per-minute basketball so far. Huskisson has always been a big talent, with some of the best athleticism in the Big Sky, along with a good outside stroke. He has always been efficient inside the arc, but this year he is 25/37, shooting 68% on twos. One aspect to his game that he has added is the ability to get steals, as he has a 4.5 Steal percentage, third in the Big Sky. He also has the best assist rate, and lowest turnover rate of his career. He is really developing in an all-around solid player, and that is a big reason why UNC has to be considered contenders this year. The key for him, as always, is consistency, but when he is playing well, he can be one of the best players in the Big Sky.
- Casey Oliverson (Southern Utah) - Oliverson is a sophomore in his first year with the Thunderbirds, and should have a nice career as a rotation guy for them. So far, his best skill is his offensive rebounding, with a 9.9% OR%, ninth in the conference. He has also flashed a little bit of skill as a shot-blocker, as he had three blocks against UC Riverside. He hasn't been a huge offensive threat so far (though he had a career-high ten points against Northridge), but he could be a nice fit for them as a rebounder.
- Brandon Gfeller (Montana) - He was too good for Montana to redshirt this year, and he is proving himself to be a reliable weapon off the bench. At this point in his career, he is just a shooter - but that is valuable for them right now. Gfeller is 11/24 from three-point range so far this year. He has only taken three twos (made all three), and he doesn't get many assists or add much defensively, but his range will be a nice asset for them this season.
- Max Jacobsen (Northern Arizona) - Don't look now, but Jacobsen has been the best post scorer in the Big Sky. He was one of the most improved players in the conference last season, and is showing that that improvement was no fluke. He has shot an astounding 63% on two-pointers (and it's not a sample size fluke - he is averaging almost 10 attempts per game), up from an already excellent 59% last year. He is not a great rebounder or defender, but if you get him the ball, he'll get you buckets. In a league without a lot of post scorers, that is huge.
- Andre Hatchett (Idaho State) - Hatchett is a guy that simply slots in for the Bengals wherever he is needed. In past years, he played a lot at the four spot. This year, he has been able to play a little more naturally at the three thanks to the addition of Jeffrey Solarin. While he has struggled this year offensively (only shooting about 40%), he has been a great defensive rebounder, which has been key for a team that struggled in that area last year. Still, like Gaellen Bewernick from NAU two years ago, I have a soft spot for undersized who do whatever the team needs. Hatchett is that guy.
- Cody Demps (Sacramento State) - Demps is an interesting player. He is 6'4'', but starts at the three spot for the Hornets, and does a lot of the little things for them. He rebounds 17.2% of available defensive rebounds, which is 11th in the Big Sky, and best on the team among guys that play at least 40% of the team's minutes. He is a solid passer and defender. However, there are still a lot of holes in his game. He turns the ball over way too much, with a 29.4 TO Rate. He is also still finding his way offensively. He is 14/28 on two-point attempts, but 4/15 from downtown, meaning he takes over two threes a game. For someone that is 9/35 in his career, that is way too many threes to take. He is a talented guy that can do some things, but until he finds a way to take better shots and take better care of the basketball, he is really holding the Hornets offense down.
- Terrell Brown (Montana State) - Brown has quietly been one of the better newcomers in the conference this year. While he is not shooting the three ball well so far this year, he has otherwise been efficient offensively. He has made 24/27 FTs, and 50% on two-point attempts. He doesn't turn the ball over. While he could be a better rebounder, if his outside shooting improves (and I think it will), he is an excellent complementary offensive weapon for the Bobcats.
Anyone else deserve a mention that doesn't get talked about much?
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Friday, December 13, 2013
North Dakota's Continued Defensive Struggles
Back in November, when North Dakota beat North Dakota State, it looked like they might be the best team in the Big Sky. Three weeks and five losses later, they don't look right now like they are a top 4 team in the Big Sky.
While they are having some offensive issues (namely with ball movement and outside shooting), I think the biggest concern has to be with their interior defense. While they have been able to pressure guards and force some turnovers (12.0 steal percentage, 25th in the nation), once offenses get past that first line of defense, things have just been too easy.
Against DI opponents, teams playing North Dakota are shooting 58.4% on two-point attempts, which is 346th in the nation. UND does not have anyone that can challenge shots down low, as they have a 4.5 block percentage, 333rd in the country. They have 17 blocked shots through eight games, so opponents know that if they take it to the rim, they are not going to meet a challenge from UND.
A lot of this is partially due to the fact that they play a lot of small ball. Of the five guys leading them in minutes played, only Jaron Nash (6'8'') and Troy Huff (6'5'') are taller than 6'1''. While that small lineup makes them hard to match up against because of all the quickness they can put on the floor, they are obviously having a hard time matching up against opponents.
What is the answer? I am sure Brian Jones and staff are hard at work figuring that out. It seems as though they need to find at least one of their big men that they can trust - among Alonzo Traylor, Chad Calcaterra, and Ryan Salmonsen - and give them more minutes. Of the three, Calcaterra has played the most, but that has been about 1/3 of the team's minutes. Perhaps they will need to scale back the attacking style as well - they have played at the ninth fastest pace in the country so far.
North Dakota has played a tough schedule, the fact that they sit at 2-6 is not really the issue here. The issue is that they haven't even been all that close to winning a game in the last few weeks, and that their defense resembles a sieve at the moment. That can change - they literally have the talent to win the Big Sky - but they need to find some answers before the start of conference play.
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While they are having some offensive issues (namely with ball movement and outside shooting), I think the biggest concern has to be with their interior defense. While they have been able to pressure guards and force some turnovers (12.0 steal percentage, 25th in the nation), once offenses get past that first line of defense, things have just been too easy.
Against DI opponents, teams playing North Dakota are shooting 58.4% on two-point attempts, which is 346th in the nation. UND does not have anyone that can challenge shots down low, as they have a 4.5 block percentage, 333rd in the country. They have 17 blocked shots through eight games, so opponents know that if they take it to the rim, they are not going to meet a challenge from UND.
A lot of this is partially due to the fact that they play a lot of small ball. Of the five guys leading them in minutes played, only Jaron Nash (6'8'') and Troy Huff (6'5'') are taller than 6'1''. While that small lineup makes them hard to match up against because of all the quickness they can put on the floor, they are obviously having a hard time matching up against opponents.
What is the answer? I am sure Brian Jones and staff are hard at work figuring that out. It seems as though they need to find at least one of their big men that they can trust - among Alonzo Traylor, Chad Calcaterra, and Ryan Salmonsen - and give them more minutes. Of the three, Calcaterra has played the most, but that has been about 1/3 of the team's minutes. Perhaps they will need to scale back the attacking style as well - they have played at the ninth fastest pace in the country so far.
North Dakota has played a tough schedule, the fact that they sit at 2-6 is not really the issue here. The issue is that they haven't even been all that close to winning a game in the last few weeks, and that their defense resembles a sieve at the moment. That can change - they literally have the talent to win the Big Sky - but they need to find some answers before the start of conference play.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2013
A Look at Tim Douglas For Portland State
Tim Douglas for Portland State sat out last season after transferring from Portland, but is playing a big role for this year's Vikings team, so I thought it would be good to take a little closer look at his game and what he brings to PSU.
Douglas plays the most minutes on the team, and has played 91.1% of the team's minutes so far this year, the 19th highest rate in the country. During his two years for Portland, he got a lot of assists but also turned the ball over too much - both of those rates are down this year. He has an assist rate of 23.3 (which is solid but not great for a PG), and a turnover rate of 20.5 (which is ok for a PG). While the assists are down, that TO rate has been cut by a third from what it was earlier in his career.
In a small sample size, he has shown an improved outside shot, as he had made 14/31 threes, or 45%. As a freshman he shot 36.5%, and that was down to 28% as a sophomore. He is shooting just 38% on twos, but that should get better, as he shot almost 50% on those shots as a sophomore. If he can maintain anything close to that three-point percentage while improving the two-point percentage, he will actually be a really solid and efficient offensive player.
He has been pretty good at drawing fouls, and is shooting around five free throws per game, making 76.5% of them. Adding that all up, he has been a solid offensive player so far this year, and there is reason to think he could get even better as the year goes along.
Defensively, he has a 3.0 Steal percentage, which is 11th in the Big Sky. As a team, PSU has been a little bit better defensively this year, and it's fair to believe that Douglas is a part of that. Against DI competition, PSU is allowing 1.11 PPP, down from 1.16 PPP last season.
It's early in the year, and clearly there are big sample size issues that will sort themselves out. But through seven games, Douglas has been a steady PG for Tyler Geving, and looks to be a good starter for the Vikings for the next two seasons.
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Douglas plays the most minutes on the team, and has played 91.1% of the team's minutes so far this year, the 19th highest rate in the country. During his two years for Portland, he got a lot of assists but also turned the ball over too much - both of those rates are down this year. He has an assist rate of 23.3 (which is solid but not great for a PG), and a turnover rate of 20.5 (which is ok for a PG). While the assists are down, that TO rate has been cut by a third from what it was earlier in his career.
In a small sample size, he has shown an improved outside shot, as he had made 14/31 threes, or 45%. As a freshman he shot 36.5%, and that was down to 28% as a sophomore. He is shooting just 38% on twos, but that should get better, as he shot almost 50% on those shots as a sophomore. If he can maintain anything close to that three-point percentage while improving the two-point percentage, he will actually be a really solid and efficient offensive player.
He has been pretty good at drawing fouls, and is shooting around five free throws per game, making 76.5% of them. Adding that all up, he has been a solid offensive player so far this year, and there is reason to think he could get even better as the year goes along.
Defensively, he has a 3.0 Steal percentage, which is 11th in the Big Sky. As a team, PSU has been a little bit better defensively this year, and it's fair to believe that Douglas is a part of that. Against DI competition, PSU is allowing 1.11 PPP, down from 1.16 PPP last season.
It's early in the year, and clearly there are big sample size issues that will sort themselves out. But through seven games, Douglas has been a steady PG for Tyler Geving, and looks to be a good starter for the Vikings for the next two seasons.
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Monday, December 9, 2013
Drew Brandon and Kareem Jamar - Stat Sheet Stuffers
So far this season, two guys have really stood out for their ability to stuff the box score in a variety of ways.
One of them is a guy that every Big Sky fan is familiar with - Kareem Jamar of Montana. The reigning Big Sky Player of the Year has been even better in his senior season, and is putting up some big numbers.
Jamar is averaging 19.6 PPG (3rd in the Big Sky), 6.4 rebounds (11th), and 5.6 assists per game (2nd). He is shooting 50% from the field, and getting to the free throw line (though that has been his one weakness - 60% shooting on FTs). He is grabbing 20.6% of available defensive rebounds this year, up from 16.3% last season. Lastly, he has a robust 33.8 Assist Rate (which ranks in the top 50 nationally) while taking great care of the ball - a 13.1 Turnover Rate.
Jamar has been an excellent scorer while also being one of the top distributors in the conference, and an excellent rebounder to boot. Montana is off to a slow start, but it is not Jamar's fault in any way.
One guy who has possibly been outdoing him is Drew Brandon for Eastern Washington. Though he struggled a little bit yesterday (along with the rest of EWU), he has been outstanding this season. He is averaging 11.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG (7th in the Big Sky - before yesterday he was averaging eight per game, which was 4th in the conference), 5.9 assists per game (leading the Big Sky), and 1.6 steals per game (top ten in conference).
As a scorer he has been a solid role player, showing an ability to knock down shots when needed. But he has grabbed 8.7% of available offensive rebounds - a solid mark for a big man, a downright ridiculous mark for a PG. His Assist Rate is at 28.8, and he sports about a 2.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. He has been a steadying PG for them, which is exactly what the team needed after last year.
It's always fun to check the box scores of the games these guys are in - Brandon has just missed on a triple double about three times this year, while Jamar has been very close a couple of times. Both guys are playing excellent basketball early on.
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One of them is a guy that every Big Sky fan is familiar with - Kareem Jamar of Montana. The reigning Big Sky Player of the Year has been even better in his senior season, and is putting up some big numbers.
Jamar is averaging 19.6 PPG (3rd in the Big Sky), 6.4 rebounds (11th), and 5.6 assists per game (2nd). He is shooting 50% from the field, and getting to the free throw line (though that has been his one weakness - 60% shooting on FTs). He is grabbing 20.6% of available defensive rebounds this year, up from 16.3% last season. Lastly, he has a robust 33.8 Assist Rate (which ranks in the top 50 nationally) while taking great care of the ball - a 13.1 Turnover Rate.
Jamar has been an excellent scorer while also being one of the top distributors in the conference, and an excellent rebounder to boot. Montana is off to a slow start, but it is not Jamar's fault in any way.
One guy who has possibly been outdoing him is Drew Brandon for Eastern Washington. Though he struggled a little bit yesterday (along with the rest of EWU), he has been outstanding this season. He is averaging 11.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG (7th in the Big Sky - before yesterday he was averaging eight per game, which was 4th in the conference), 5.9 assists per game (leading the Big Sky), and 1.6 steals per game (top ten in conference).
As a scorer he has been a solid role player, showing an ability to knock down shots when needed. But he has grabbed 8.7% of available offensive rebounds - a solid mark for a big man, a downright ridiculous mark for a PG. His Assist Rate is at 28.8, and he sports about a 2.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. He has been a steadying PG for them, which is exactly what the team needed after last year.
It's always fun to check the box scores of the games these guys are in - Brandon has just missed on a triple double about three times this year, while Jamar has been very close a couple of times. Both guys are playing excellent basketball early on.
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Friday, December 6, 2013
Updated Recruiting Tracker
If you had looked at my Big Sky recruiting tracker lately, you would have seen it was horribly out of date.
That should be mostly fixed now, though I am still working on linking to the official pages of their signings. But, if you notice anything missing, drop me a line! Check them out here.
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That should be mostly fixed now, though I am still working on linking to the official pages of their signings. But, if you notice anything missing, drop me a line! Check them out here.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Big Sky Power Rankings
After a month of college basketball, it's debatable if we know more about the Big Sky than we did before the season began! There are still a lot of unknowns... but, let's still take a look at how things look right, and the order that I would put teams in right now if I was re-picking the order that things will finish in.
1. Weber State - The Wildcats are just 1-3, but the losses are two road losses to BYU and Colorado State, and a home loss to Utah State. But, it's certainly way too early to panic. They have some things to work on... their backcourt is unsettled as Jeremy Senglin is a freshman PG and Jordan Richardson is adjusting to his new role. But Davion Berry is still one of the best in the Big Sky, and the frontcourt of Kyle Tresnak and Joel Bolomboy is the best in the conference. There is enough talent and experience there that I still feel confident that they will figure things out.
2. Northern Colorado - If you look at just the results, the case could be made that no team has been more impressive than Northern Colorado. They are solid offensively, but look much improved defensively from the last two seasons. One key has been the moving of Tevin Svihovec off the ball, where he has been very solid. While his shooting numbers are down, he has shown a great ability to get to the basket and get to the free throw line. Now a junior, he appears more comfortable than he has throughout his career, and it has been big for the Bears.
3. North Dakota - If these rankings had been done before Thanksgiving, UND could have gotten the top spot. But after their three-game ugly showing in Oregon, it's far to have some worries about them. Troy Huff is great, and Aaron Anderson is pretty great too, but they need everyone else to step up too. Jaron Nash has been solid, but has struggled after a great start to his season. As mentioned earlier this week, the interior defense for UND has been atrocious so far this season, and that has to be a big-time concern.
4. Montana - I had a hard time figuring out where to rank the Grizzlies. For the most part, they have not been bad offensively, but that is because they are shooting 60% on twos, which will not continue. They don't get offensive rebounds, and they haven't been very good at getting to the free throw line, which is a concern long-term. Further, Kareem Jamar just carries such a huge load. He has played an unsustainable 93.8% of the team's minutes, and has been even better than advertised. But when you are relying so much on one guy, no matter how good he is, that's a recipe for trouble. Part of the reason for the big load has been an ankle injury for Jordan Gregory, but the Grizzlies need guys like Keron DeShields, Mike Weisner, and Mario Dunn to be able to contribute every night, and so far, that is not happening.
5. Eastern Washington - The Eagles are a tough team to rank right now, because on any given night, they could be the best and most talented team in the Big Sky. I have a feeling this number five ranking is too low, but I'm not ready to downgrade any of the teams above them quite yet. Offensively, they are scary. Tyler Harvey is second in the Big Sky in scoring with over 20 a game, with a ridiculous 68.3% true shooting percentage. Venky Jois is averaging 15 and 7, while shooting 63% on twos. PG Drew Brandon is the ultimate box score stuffer - 11.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG (5th in Big Sky), 6.4 APG (1st in Big Sky). The Eagles have a great, young core that is the envy of the conference.
6. Portland State - You cannot yet call the Vikings offense good, or even average, but it is showing signs of being improved, which would be huge for a program that has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country the past couple of seasons. Offensively, they haven't played great, but they look like they have a lot of guys that can contribute, and they should get better as the season goes along. Newcomer DaShaun Wiggins has drawn more fouls per minute than all but one person in the country, and looks to be a really solid all-around player for PSU.
7. Idaho State - They beat San Francisco on the road and almost beat Cal State Bakersfield away from home, so there is plenty to feel good about. They are forcing a lot of turnovers, and newcomer Evann Hall has the second highest steal rate in the country. They also appear to be a little bit deeper than last year, especially in the frontcourt. However, they still have trouble stopping teams inside, and they are turning the ball over too much. I think having them seventh may be overrating them just a little bit, but there can be little doubt that Bill Evans has things headed in the right direction.
8. Montana State - Only one guy has played more than 61% of the team's minutes so far, so clearly Brad Huse is playing around with some rotations and who plays well together, which is what the non-conference season is for. So far though, there are a lot of things that haven't quite been working. The Bobcats have been poor offensively, with only Marcus Colbert, Terrell Brown, and Paul Egwuonwu being above average on that end so far. There are reasons to think they will be ok - Flavien Davis will play better, and Antonio Biglow still has the talent to be really good on both ends, but I worry that their ceiling is limited.
9. Sacramento State - So far this year, things have been ugly. Offensively, they aren't getting easy baskets, they are turning it over way too much, and they aren't getting many second chance opportunities. Defensively, teams have shot almost 45% from downtown against them (which should regress to the mean), and they aren't stopping teams from scoring inside either (57% on twos). Some of those numbers are skewed by playing teams like UCLA and UC Irvine, but it has still been an opening month where they have realized there are a lot of improvements to be made.
10. Northern Arizona - After losing DeWayne Russell right before the season, they have struggled to find an offensive identity. Big man Max Jacobsen has continued to build on his strong last year last season, and is averaging over 16 PPG on 65% shooting on two-pointers. He perhaps trails only Kyle Tresnak (and even that is debatable) for the post true post scorer in the conference. There are high hopes for Quinton Upshur, but he has been uneven so far. They are a young team, and I think this 10 spot might be a bit low, but we've got to see some of the young guys and newcomers perform.
11. Southern Utah - I have a lot of respect for their program. I think Nick Robinson is a really good coach, and will do some really good things in his career. But this Southern Utah team is going to struggle to win games this year. They don't have offensive punch - they are shootting 35.5% on two-point field goals against DI competition, and not creating any second chance opportunities. They are one of the youngest teams in the country, and it is showing so far. The good thing is that they have building blocks - Trey Kennedy, Juwan Major, and AJ Hess are all really good players (or are going to be really good), and they are either freshmen or sophomores. But there will be plenty of growing pains this season.
Thoughts? How would you change things around?
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1. Weber State - The Wildcats are just 1-3, but the losses are two road losses to BYU and Colorado State, and a home loss to Utah State. But, it's certainly way too early to panic. They have some things to work on... their backcourt is unsettled as Jeremy Senglin is a freshman PG and Jordan Richardson is adjusting to his new role. But Davion Berry is still one of the best in the Big Sky, and the frontcourt of Kyle Tresnak and Joel Bolomboy is the best in the conference. There is enough talent and experience there that I still feel confident that they will figure things out.
2. Northern Colorado - If you look at just the results, the case could be made that no team has been more impressive than Northern Colorado. They are solid offensively, but look much improved defensively from the last two seasons. One key has been the moving of Tevin Svihovec off the ball, where he has been very solid. While his shooting numbers are down, he has shown a great ability to get to the basket and get to the free throw line. Now a junior, he appears more comfortable than he has throughout his career, and it has been big for the Bears.
3. North Dakota - If these rankings had been done before Thanksgiving, UND could have gotten the top spot. But after their three-game ugly showing in Oregon, it's far to have some worries about them. Troy Huff is great, and Aaron Anderson is pretty great too, but they need everyone else to step up too. Jaron Nash has been solid, but has struggled after a great start to his season. As mentioned earlier this week, the interior defense for UND has been atrocious so far this season, and that has to be a big-time concern.
4. Montana - I had a hard time figuring out where to rank the Grizzlies. For the most part, they have not been bad offensively, but that is because they are shooting 60% on twos, which will not continue. They don't get offensive rebounds, and they haven't been very good at getting to the free throw line, which is a concern long-term. Further, Kareem Jamar just carries such a huge load. He has played an unsustainable 93.8% of the team's minutes, and has been even better than advertised. But when you are relying so much on one guy, no matter how good he is, that's a recipe for trouble. Part of the reason for the big load has been an ankle injury for Jordan Gregory, but the Grizzlies need guys like Keron DeShields, Mike Weisner, and Mario Dunn to be able to contribute every night, and so far, that is not happening.
5. Eastern Washington - The Eagles are a tough team to rank right now, because on any given night, they could be the best and most talented team in the Big Sky. I have a feeling this number five ranking is too low, but I'm not ready to downgrade any of the teams above them quite yet. Offensively, they are scary. Tyler Harvey is second in the Big Sky in scoring with over 20 a game, with a ridiculous 68.3% true shooting percentage. Venky Jois is averaging 15 and 7, while shooting 63% on twos. PG Drew Brandon is the ultimate box score stuffer - 11.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG (5th in Big Sky), 6.4 APG (1st in Big Sky). The Eagles have a great, young core that is the envy of the conference.
6. Portland State - You cannot yet call the Vikings offense good, or even average, but it is showing signs of being improved, which would be huge for a program that has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country the past couple of seasons. Offensively, they haven't played great, but they look like they have a lot of guys that can contribute, and they should get better as the season goes along. Newcomer DaShaun Wiggins has drawn more fouls per minute than all but one person in the country, and looks to be a really solid all-around player for PSU.
7. Idaho State - They beat San Francisco on the road and almost beat Cal State Bakersfield away from home, so there is plenty to feel good about. They are forcing a lot of turnovers, and newcomer Evann Hall has the second highest steal rate in the country. They also appear to be a little bit deeper than last year, especially in the frontcourt. However, they still have trouble stopping teams inside, and they are turning the ball over too much. I think having them seventh may be overrating them just a little bit, but there can be little doubt that Bill Evans has things headed in the right direction.
8. Montana State - Only one guy has played more than 61% of the team's minutes so far, so clearly Brad Huse is playing around with some rotations and who plays well together, which is what the non-conference season is for. So far though, there are a lot of things that haven't quite been working. The Bobcats have been poor offensively, with only Marcus Colbert, Terrell Brown, and Paul Egwuonwu being above average on that end so far. There are reasons to think they will be ok - Flavien Davis will play better, and Antonio Biglow still has the talent to be really good on both ends, but I worry that their ceiling is limited.
9. Sacramento State - So far this year, things have been ugly. Offensively, they aren't getting easy baskets, they are turning it over way too much, and they aren't getting many second chance opportunities. Defensively, teams have shot almost 45% from downtown against them (which should regress to the mean), and they aren't stopping teams from scoring inside either (57% on twos). Some of those numbers are skewed by playing teams like UCLA and UC Irvine, but it has still been an opening month where they have realized there are a lot of improvements to be made.
10. Northern Arizona - After losing DeWayne Russell right before the season, they have struggled to find an offensive identity. Big man Max Jacobsen has continued to build on his strong last year last season, and is averaging over 16 PPG on 65% shooting on two-pointers. He perhaps trails only Kyle Tresnak (and even that is debatable) for the post true post scorer in the conference. There are high hopes for Quinton Upshur, but he has been uneven so far. They are a young team, and I think this 10 spot might be a bit low, but we've got to see some of the young guys and newcomers perform.
11. Southern Utah - I have a lot of respect for their program. I think Nick Robinson is a really good coach, and will do some really good things in his career. But this Southern Utah team is going to struggle to win games this year. They don't have offensive punch - they are shootting 35.5% on two-point field goals against DI competition, and not creating any second chance opportunities. They are one of the youngest teams in the country, and it is showing so far. The good thing is that they have building blocks - Trey Kennedy, Juwan Major, and AJ Hess are all really good players (or are going to be really good), and they are either freshmen or sophomores. But there will be plenty of growing pains this season.
Thoughts? How would you change things around?
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Tuesday, December 3, 2013
A Snapshot of the Big Sky
I missed a lot over the Thanksgiving break, but it was a great holiday! However, rather than trying to go over everything I missed, let's take a snapshot of what happened for each team the past few days, and any trends that we can see.
Eastern Washington - On Friday, they got a win over a decent Seattle team, powered again by a great offensive performance, as they scored 1.17 PPP. Tyler Harvey led the way with 30 points, including 6/9 from downtown. Through seven games, he has already attempted 55 threes... but being as he has made 28 of them (51%), I am sure the EWU coaches would just like him to keep shooting!
Idaho State - The Bengals have had a nice long break, as they haven't played since November 23. As we have talked about often, all four of their game have been over 70 possessions, a remarkable turn from last year. They are fun to watch.
Montana - They lost by 11 to Hawaii, dropping them to 1-4 on the young season. Against the Rainbow Warriors, Kareem Jamar was merely good - 16 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. To beat good teams, they need Jamar to be great at this point in the season. The Grizzlies are continuing to get little to no production from their frontcourt.
Montana State - The Bobcats beat Cal State Northridge last Tuesday, before falling big at Wyoming (which is to be expected). One of the biggest reasons they are struggling is that Flavien Davis (87.3 ORtg) and Calen Coleman (91.5 ORtg) are both struggling. They were both solid last season, so they should pick up... but they need them to be good for MSU to compete.
North Dakota - UND took their high of beating NDSU... and promptly lost to Cal Poly (by 27), Oregon (15), and Pacific (17). That's not a good look for them or the Big Sky. UND was BAD defensively in all three games, allowing over 90 to both Oregon and Pacific. DI Opponents are shooting 58.7% on twos against them this year, which is really, really bad. They need to clean that up.
Northern Arizona - The Jacks fell to 2-6 with losses to CS Bakersfield, Drake, and Fresno State, three games they could have been reasonably expected to lose. They are shooting just 25% on threes against DI opponents this year, led by the struggles of Quinton Upshur (28% on almost seven attempts per game) and Aaseem Dizon (33% on almost six attempts per game). Combined with too high of a turnover rate and not getting to the foul line, and they are struggling offensively.
Northern Colorado - The Bears won a way too close game against Bethune Cookman (65-60) and then beat Prairie View A&M over the weekend. They trailed Bethune Cookman by as many as 18 before a late comeback to win. They didn't really learn from that, as they trailed Prairie View by as many as 11 in the first half before winning by 17. They have the talent to compete for a Big Sky title, but have to find the consistency... and not have any games where they go through the motions.
Portland State - PSU lost to Boise State on the road, but now stand at 4-2. They have been forcing a lot of turnovers, having the 45th best rate at that in the country. If they can keep that up, that can help make the defense at least average, which would be a big step up from the past couple years and position them to nab a conference tournament spot.
Sacramento State - The Hornets eeked out a win in a rivalry game against UC Davis, and then got blown out by a pretty good UC Irvine team. It still feels like we don't know that much about the Hornets. Dylan Garrity is great, Mikh McKinney is good... but then what? We are still waiting to see which big men will step up and be consistent rotational players for them.
Southern Utah - Through the first few weeks of the year, they still look like they will probably occupy the cellar in the Big Sky. They look like one of the worst offensive teams in college basketball, failing to crack 0.90 PPP in any game against DI competition (and that is not a very high benchmark). They have some good pieces, but there's not enough of them, and they are still too young to make a consistent impact.
Weber State - The national nightmare is over, as Weber State got their first win - a comfortable victory over San Jose State. They are still looking for a consistent impact from Jordan Richardson at the two spot, and their forced turnover rate is still ugly, but they have the talent to figure those things out. Joel Bolomboy continues to rebound the ball, with an OR% of 12.1 and DR% of 23.1. Two interesting road games against UT-Arlington and Utah Valley await.
Anything important I have missed?
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Eastern Washington - On Friday, they got a win over a decent Seattle team, powered again by a great offensive performance, as they scored 1.17 PPP. Tyler Harvey led the way with 30 points, including 6/9 from downtown. Through seven games, he has already attempted 55 threes... but being as he has made 28 of them (51%), I am sure the EWU coaches would just like him to keep shooting!
Idaho State - The Bengals have had a nice long break, as they haven't played since November 23. As we have talked about often, all four of their game have been over 70 possessions, a remarkable turn from last year. They are fun to watch.
Montana - They lost by 11 to Hawaii, dropping them to 1-4 on the young season. Against the Rainbow Warriors, Kareem Jamar was merely good - 16 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. To beat good teams, they need Jamar to be great at this point in the season. The Grizzlies are continuing to get little to no production from their frontcourt.
Montana State - The Bobcats beat Cal State Northridge last Tuesday, before falling big at Wyoming (which is to be expected). One of the biggest reasons they are struggling is that Flavien Davis (87.3 ORtg) and Calen Coleman (91.5 ORtg) are both struggling. They were both solid last season, so they should pick up... but they need them to be good for MSU to compete.
North Dakota - UND took their high of beating NDSU... and promptly lost to Cal Poly (by 27), Oregon (15), and Pacific (17). That's not a good look for them or the Big Sky. UND was BAD defensively in all three games, allowing over 90 to both Oregon and Pacific. DI Opponents are shooting 58.7% on twos against them this year, which is really, really bad. They need to clean that up.
Northern Arizona - The Jacks fell to 2-6 with losses to CS Bakersfield, Drake, and Fresno State, three games they could have been reasonably expected to lose. They are shooting just 25% on threes against DI opponents this year, led by the struggles of Quinton Upshur (28% on almost seven attempts per game) and Aaseem Dizon (33% on almost six attempts per game). Combined with too high of a turnover rate and not getting to the foul line, and they are struggling offensively.
Northern Colorado - The Bears won a way too close game against Bethune Cookman (65-60) and then beat Prairie View A&M over the weekend. They trailed Bethune Cookman by as many as 18 before a late comeback to win. They didn't really learn from that, as they trailed Prairie View by as many as 11 in the first half before winning by 17. They have the talent to compete for a Big Sky title, but have to find the consistency... and not have any games where they go through the motions.
Portland State - PSU lost to Boise State on the road, but now stand at 4-2. They have been forcing a lot of turnovers, having the 45th best rate at that in the country. If they can keep that up, that can help make the defense at least average, which would be a big step up from the past couple years and position them to nab a conference tournament spot.
Sacramento State - The Hornets eeked out a win in a rivalry game against UC Davis, and then got blown out by a pretty good UC Irvine team. It still feels like we don't know that much about the Hornets. Dylan Garrity is great, Mikh McKinney is good... but then what? We are still waiting to see which big men will step up and be consistent rotational players for them.
Southern Utah - Through the first few weeks of the year, they still look like they will probably occupy the cellar in the Big Sky. They look like one of the worst offensive teams in college basketball, failing to crack 0.90 PPP in any game against DI competition (and that is not a very high benchmark). They have some good pieces, but there's not enough of them, and they are still too young to make a consistent impact.
Weber State - The national nightmare is over, as Weber State got their first win - a comfortable victory over San Jose State. They are still looking for a consistent impact from Jordan Richardson at the two spot, and their forced turnover rate is still ugly, but they have the talent to figure those things out. Joel Bolomboy continues to rebound the ball, with an OR% of 12.1 and DR% of 23.1. Two interesting road games against UT-Arlington and Utah Valley await.
Anything important I have missed?
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Thursday, November 28, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving!
For Thanksgiving, I am off to the Promised Land (aka North Dakota) visiting family, so posts will be sparse if there are any at all. There is still some good basketball being played, so make sure to watch some Big Sky action!
Most of all, hope that you have a great Thanksgiving! And thank you for reading!
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Most of all, hope that you have a great Thanksgiving! And thank you for reading!
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Improvement in the Big Sky
In 2012, the Big Sky finished 28th in KenPom's rankings (which can at least provide a decent overview of the state of the conference).
In 2013, the Big Sky finished 27th in the rankings.
So far this year, the Big Sky is 23rd in the rankings.
To my eye, we are seeing some improvement from Big Sky teams, and we are especially seeing what will be a much improved top five of the conference, as all of the top teams seem like they will be very strong. A quick rundown of some of the impressive wins and performances so far this year.
- North Dakota's win over potential Summit League winner NDSU was one of the biggest wins so far, and should look stronger as the season goes along. Also, they did score 85 against Wisconsin (but they did give up 103). For the last couple of seasons, their defense has been better than their offense, but so far this year, they look like they could have the most explosive offense in the Big Sky.
- Northern Colorado has been perhaps the most impressive team in the conference so far. They have the season-opening win over Kansas State, but they also went on the road and gave two solid teams - New Mexico State and Colorado State - all they could handle. The experience gained in tough, road games should be a big help as the season goes on.
- Eastern Washington led the University of Washington by nine at the half in Seattle, before falling late. They followed that up with an impressive win over a good Boston team, a beating of a traditionally solid LIU team, and a road loss to UC-Irvine. Like UND, their offense is looking very explosive right now, and they potentially have the talent to be better than their number five pre-season ranking.
- Montana faltered against Minnesota and San Francsico, but they did beat South Dakota State on the road. The Jackrabbits were an NCAA tournament team last year, though they'll surely take a step back this season.
- Idaho State actually has the best RPI in the conference, and they boast an OT win on the road at San Francisco, who will be a good team this year.
- Portland State hosted a tournament, and came away with wins over DI opponents Loyola Chicago, SIU Edwardsville, and UC Davis. No matter the quality of the opponents, when you win three DI games in three days, that is really positive.
- Montana State got a road win over Central Michigan, who could be a middle of the road MAC team if things break right.
There are no stunning upsets of top 25 teams, but there's a lot of solid victories in the mix here. Those are the types of things that were few and far between for the Big Sky the past two years. This year, the top appears stronger, and the depth with teams like Idaho State seems better than in past years as well. That is a great sign for the Big Sky.
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In 2013, the Big Sky finished 27th in the rankings.
So far this year, the Big Sky is 23rd in the rankings.
To my eye, we are seeing some improvement from Big Sky teams, and we are especially seeing what will be a much improved top five of the conference, as all of the top teams seem like they will be very strong. A quick rundown of some of the impressive wins and performances so far this year.
- North Dakota's win over potential Summit League winner NDSU was one of the biggest wins so far, and should look stronger as the season goes along. Also, they did score 85 against Wisconsin (but they did give up 103). For the last couple of seasons, their defense has been better than their offense, but so far this year, they look like they could have the most explosive offense in the Big Sky.
- Northern Colorado has been perhaps the most impressive team in the conference so far. They have the season-opening win over Kansas State, but they also went on the road and gave two solid teams - New Mexico State and Colorado State - all they could handle. The experience gained in tough, road games should be a big help as the season goes on.
- Eastern Washington led the University of Washington by nine at the half in Seattle, before falling late. They followed that up with an impressive win over a good Boston team, a beating of a traditionally solid LIU team, and a road loss to UC-Irvine. Like UND, their offense is looking very explosive right now, and they potentially have the talent to be better than their number five pre-season ranking.
- Montana faltered against Minnesota and San Francsico, but they did beat South Dakota State on the road. The Jackrabbits were an NCAA tournament team last year, though they'll surely take a step back this season.
- Idaho State actually has the best RPI in the conference, and they boast an OT win on the road at San Francisco, who will be a good team this year.
- Portland State hosted a tournament, and came away with wins over DI opponents Loyola Chicago, SIU Edwardsville, and UC Davis. No matter the quality of the opponents, when you win three DI games in three days, that is really positive.
- Montana State got a road win over Central Michigan, who could be a middle of the road MAC team if things break right.
There are no stunning upsets of top 25 teams, but there's a lot of solid victories in the mix here. Those are the types of things that were few and far between for the Big Sky the past two years. This year, the top appears stronger, and the depth with teams like Idaho State seems better than in past years as well. That is a great sign for the Big Sky.
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Monday, November 25, 2013
North Dakota Takes Down Rival NDSU
Every North Dakota fan or alum will tell you that there is nothing better than beating NDSU. Though we all know that the University of North Dakota has the superior athletic program(!), NDSU fans like to claim that their football success and NCAA Tournament appearance makes it more of a discussion. So, it always feels good to beat NDSU. In this case, it felt especially good to beat a good NDSU team by 18 points, scoring a blistering 1.25 PPP.
UND won this game by simply being excellent offensively. They made 24/39 shots from two-point range, and got to the line an astounding 41 times (making 33 of them, which is no small thing for a team that has struggled at the line the past couple of seasons). (It should also be noted that NDSU made 36 trips to the free throw line themselves).
The star was Troy Huff, who was fantastic again. He followed up his 39 points, 9 rebound performance against Wisconsin with 32 points and 10 rebounds in this game. He was 8/12 from the floor and 13/17 from the foul line. He had three steals. He led the team in scoring and rebounding, and was efficient from downtown (3/6). So far, has looks like every bit the Big Sky POY contender that everyone thought he would be, and then some.
Aaron Anderson once again was his efficient self, scoring 18 points despite taking four field goal attempts. (He was 10/12 from the FT line). Jaron Nash scored 12 points, Chad Calcaterra had 11 off the bench, and Jamal Webb was creating plays for other guys. They got production from their bench, which is another thing that hasn't always been there for UND.
Defensively, UND shut down guys who weren't named Taylor Braun (the NDSU star scored 34 points). All other Bison players were 17/43 from the floor, and 8/14 from the stripe.
UND moves to 2-1 on the year, but this is a win they will feel good about it, especially since NDSU beat them by 20 in Fargo last season. This game, along with the play of Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington, has shown us that the Big Sky is going to be very competitive at the top. North Dakota finished last season strong, and they appear to have picked up right where they left off.
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UND won this game by simply being excellent offensively. They made 24/39 shots from two-point range, and got to the line an astounding 41 times (making 33 of them, which is no small thing for a team that has struggled at the line the past couple of seasons). (It should also be noted that NDSU made 36 trips to the free throw line themselves).
The star was Troy Huff, who was fantastic again. He followed up his 39 points, 9 rebound performance against Wisconsin with 32 points and 10 rebounds in this game. He was 8/12 from the floor and 13/17 from the foul line. He had three steals. He led the team in scoring and rebounding, and was efficient from downtown (3/6). So far, has looks like every bit the Big Sky POY contender that everyone thought he would be, and then some.
Aaron Anderson once again was his efficient self, scoring 18 points despite taking four field goal attempts. (He was 10/12 from the FT line). Jaron Nash scored 12 points, Chad Calcaterra had 11 off the bench, and Jamal Webb was creating plays for other guys. They got production from their bench, which is another thing that hasn't always been there for UND.
Defensively, UND shut down guys who weren't named Taylor Braun (the NDSU star scored 34 points). All other Bison players were 17/43 from the floor, and 8/14 from the stripe.
UND moves to 2-1 on the year, but this is a win they will feel good about it, especially since NDSU beat them by 20 in Fargo last season. This game, along with the play of Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington, has shown us that the Big Sky is going to be very competitive at the top. North Dakota finished last season strong, and they appear to have picked up right where they left off.
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Saturday, November 23, 2013
The Rest of Friday Night's Big Sky Action
While I was at the Northern Colorado vs Colorado State game, four other Big Sky games were happening. Let's take a quick rundown at what else happened in the Big Sky on Friday night.
Eastern Washington 80, Boston University 68
If you are not familiar with the Boston program - they are solid. The Terriers are a legit America East contender this year, so for the Eagles to go win by 12 on a neutral court is an impressive feat. There are no shortage of eye-popping numbers for the Eagles:
- As a team, they shot 21-39 on twos, and 10/18 from three-point range. They turned it over 16 times, but that will get corrected. They can score the ball in bunches.
- Drew Brandon's stat line - 15 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists. He is averaging over ten rebounds per game.. Oh yeah, he is their starting PG!
- Tyler Harvey drained five more threes tonight, giving him 20 makes through four games. He is a budding star in the Big Sky.
- Venky Jois is already a star for EWU, and he had 20 points and eight rebounds. After not making any threes last year, he had one in this game - adding that to his arsenal makes him that much more dangerous.
- Freshman Ognjen Miljkovic had 14 points and 6 rebounds in 26 minutes. It's an embarrassment of riches in terms of young talent for Jim Hayford right now.
EWU should be a scary team for the rest of the Big Sky to think about because they are so talented, but still so young. They are going to keep getting better and better, and they're already pretty darn good.
Montana State 59, Central Michigan 54
Road wins are never easy, and this one has to feel very good for the Bobcats. They clawed their way (no pun intended) to a victory in a defensive battle, winning despire shooting 21/54from the field and turning it over 12 times. They won it with defense, which has been a struggle for them. They also won it thanks to the contributions of Terrell Brown off the bench. Brown had 23 points, hitting from the outside (3/7 3PA) and getting to the line (6/8). They will need those types of performances from different guys this year, as they don't have anyone they can count on to consistently carry the load.
The Bobcats were great on the defensive glass, especially Paul Egwuonwu (11 defensive rebounds). They held Central Michigan to just two offensive rebounds. That is getting things done.
Portland State 67, Loyola 63
The Vikings trailed by 14 points in the second half before coming back for a nice early-season win. They were sparked by 14 second half points each for Dre Winston and Aaron Moore, and another solid defensive effort. Moore finished with 24 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 9/14 from the floor. Winston was 5/7 from the floor and 6/7 from the stripe, scoring a hyper-efficient 16 points.
Last note... I mentioned earlier this week that Tim Douglas was playing it well but turning it over a bit too much. He turned that around quickly, with seven assists to one turnover. Very nice game for him.
San Francisco 75, Montana 74
I'm not sure anyone would have predicted this chain of events - Idaho State goes on the road to beat San Francisco, and days later, the Dons come into Missoula and take down Montana. Basketball is a funny game. While Jordan Gregory did play (and pretty well), the Grizzlies somehow allowed USF to shoot 30/55 from the field, AND grab 14 offensive rebounds. Put another way, the Dons grabbed 45% of available offensive rebounds in this game, which is bad for Montana. Kareem Jamar did everything he could - 25 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals - but it wasn't enough. The Grizzlies offense looks ok right now (1.12 PPP, though ISU had 1.15 against the Dons), but their ceiling remains limited right now until they can get some type of production down low.
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Eastern Washington 80, Boston University 68
If you are not familiar with the Boston program - they are solid. The Terriers are a legit America East contender this year, so for the Eagles to go win by 12 on a neutral court is an impressive feat. There are no shortage of eye-popping numbers for the Eagles:
- As a team, they shot 21-39 on twos, and 10/18 from three-point range. They turned it over 16 times, but that will get corrected. They can score the ball in bunches.
- Drew Brandon's stat line - 15 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists. He is averaging over ten rebounds per game.. Oh yeah, he is their starting PG!
- Tyler Harvey drained five more threes tonight, giving him 20 makes through four games. He is a budding star in the Big Sky.
- Venky Jois is already a star for EWU, and he had 20 points and eight rebounds. After not making any threes last year, he had one in this game - adding that to his arsenal makes him that much more dangerous.
- Freshman Ognjen Miljkovic had 14 points and 6 rebounds in 26 minutes. It's an embarrassment of riches in terms of young talent for Jim Hayford right now.
EWU should be a scary team for the rest of the Big Sky to think about because they are so talented, but still so young. They are going to keep getting better and better, and they're already pretty darn good.
Montana State 59, Central Michigan 54
Road wins are never easy, and this one has to feel very good for the Bobcats. They clawed their way (no pun intended) to a victory in a defensive battle, winning despire shooting 21/54from the field and turning it over 12 times. They won it with defense, which has been a struggle for them. They also won it thanks to the contributions of Terrell Brown off the bench. Brown had 23 points, hitting from the outside (3/7 3PA) and getting to the line (6/8). They will need those types of performances from different guys this year, as they don't have anyone they can count on to consistently carry the load.
The Bobcats were great on the defensive glass, especially Paul Egwuonwu (11 defensive rebounds). They held Central Michigan to just two offensive rebounds. That is getting things done.
Portland State 67, Loyola 63
The Vikings trailed by 14 points in the second half before coming back for a nice early-season win. They were sparked by 14 second half points each for Dre Winston and Aaron Moore, and another solid defensive effort. Moore finished with 24 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 9/14 from the floor. Winston was 5/7 from the floor and 6/7 from the stripe, scoring a hyper-efficient 16 points.
Last note... I mentioned earlier this week that Tim Douglas was playing it well but turning it over a bit too much. He turned that around quickly, with seven assists to one turnover. Very nice game for him.
San Francisco 75, Montana 74
I'm not sure anyone would have predicted this chain of events - Idaho State goes on the road to beat San Francisco, and days later, the Dons come into Missoula and take down Montana. Basketball is a funny game. While Jordan Gregory did play (and pretty well), the Grizzlies somehow allowed USF to shoot 30/55 from the field, AND grab 14 offensive rebounds. Put another way, the Dons grabbed 45% of available offensive rebounds in this game, which is bad for Montana. Kareem Jamar did everything he could - 25 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals - but it wasn't enough. The Grizzlies offense looks ok right now (1.12 PPP, though ISU had 1.15 against the Dons), but their ceiling remains limited right now until they can get some type of production down low.
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Colorado State Outlasts Northern Colorado
Coaches often say there is no such thing as a moral victory, and maybe that is true. But Coach BJ Hill and the rest of the Northern Colorado program should have gone to bed on Friday night excited about their team, their program, and their season. Northern Colorado fell 72-65 to Colorado State, but it was a game they controlled for much of the second half. After the game CSU coach Larry Eustachy said, "They're better than us right now," and that the Bears could win the Big Sky. I am starting to think he might be right about that.
Let's start with the reasons that the Bears lost, before we move onto the positives. The biggest key was that they simply could not match CSU's size and athleticism in the frontcourt. CSU grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and had 18 second-chance points, compared to zero for the Bears.
The other key down low for the Rams was JJ Avila, who showcased a full variety of offensive skills, shooting 9/13 from the floor and 10/10 from the stripe on the way to a 28 point evening. This was a night for Connor Osborne to forget. Against a frontline as long and fast as CSU has, Osborne simply is not quick enough to make an impact. While not all five of his fouls seemed legit, he was out of position at times defensively, missed boxouts, and could not establish any type of position offensively. Fortunately for him, there are no frontlines like Colorado State's in the Big Sky.
The other key to this game, at least down the stretch, was officiating. Let me say it this way - reffing was not THE reason they lost, but it was a reason. At times down the stretch, it was like CSU initiated a little bit of contact and dared the refs to call a foul - and they obliged. All told, CSU show 25/33 from the stripe. It wasn't necessarily that the refs weren't calling things both ways, it was just that it seemed that they were calling fouls that weren't there, and they happened to be going against the Bears. But that's enough whining about the refs.
For the positives... that is the best I have seen Tevin Svihovec play. I will be the first to admit that during much of the offseason, he was kind of the forgotten man for me. Tonight, he showed his talent. He scored 20 points, including 2/3 from downtown and 6/6 from the charity stripe. He was the Bears best offensive player. It is an interesting dichotomy to watch the varying styles of him and Corey Spence...Svihovec is a very good penetrator using strength and footwork, while Spence got into the lane with pure quickness.
If Svihovec was UNC's best player in this game, the most pleasant surprise to me was Corey Spence. Hopes were high for him heading into the year, and he looks like exactly the player they have been needing. He finished with 11 points and six assists, but it's more than that. He pressured the ball full-court and played solid man defense. He played with an attitude and swagger that was fun to watch. The added dimension of him and Jordan Wilson (who played just nine minutes in this game, but has had a nice start to his career) give the Bears a couple guys that will wear opposing guards out.
Lastly, the Bears as a whole just look a lot more quick and active defensively than last season. Dominique Lee is another guy upfront that can defend multiple positions with his athletic ability, and he will have better days than this one. The Bears have struggled with quickness the last couple of years, but that shouldn't be the case so much this year. They look good.
It's a loss for UNC, but you couldn't have watched the game without coming away impressed by the Bears' talent and toughness. They are going to win a lot of basketball games this year.
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Let's start with the reasons that the Bears lost, before we move onto the positives. The biggest key was that they simply could not match CSU's size and athleticism in the frontcourt. CSU grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and had 18 second-chance points, compared to zero for the Bears.
The other key down low for the Rams was JJ Avila, who showcased a full variety of offensive skills, shooting 9/13 from the floor and 10/10 from the stripe on the way to a 28 point evening. This was a night for Connor Osborne to forget. Against a frontline as long and fast as CSU has, Osborne simply is not quick enough to make an impact. While not all five of his fouls seemed legit, he was out of position at times defensively, missed boxouts, and could not establish any type of position offensively. Fortunately for him, there are no frontlines like Colorado State's in the Big Sky.
The other key to this game, at least down the stretch, was officiating. Let me say it this way - reffing was not THE reason they lost, but it was a reason. At times down the stretch, it was like CSU initiated a little bit of contact and dared the refs to call a foul - and they obliged. All told, CSU show 25/33 from the stripe. It wasn't necessarily that the refs weren't calling things both ways, it was just that it seemed that they were calling fouls that weren't there, and they happened to be going against the Bears. But that's enough whining about the refs.
For the positives... that is the best I have seen Tevin Svihovec play. I will be the first to admit that during much of the offseason, he was kind of the forgotten man for me. Tonight, he showed his talent. He scored 20 points, including 2/3 from downtown and 6/6 from the charity stripe. He was the Bears best offensive player. It is an interesting dichotomy to watch the varying styles of him and Corey Spence...Svihovec is a very good penetrator using strength and footwork, while Spence got into the lane with pure quickness.
If Svihovec was UNC's best player in this game, the most pleasant surprise to me was Corey Spence. Hopes were high for him heading into the year, and he looks like exactly the player they have been needing. He finished with 11 points and six assists, but it's more than that. He pressured the ball full-court and played solid man defense. He played with an attitude and swagger that was fun to watch. The added dimension of him and Jordan Wilson (who played just nine minutes in this game, but has had a nice start to his career) give the Bears a couple guys that will wear opposing guards out.
Lastly, the Bears as a whole just look a lot more quick and active defensively than last season. Dominique Lee is another guy upfront that can defend multiple positions with his athletic ability, and he will have better days than this one. The Bears have struggled with quickness the last couple of years, but that shouldn't be the case so much this year. They look good.
It's a loss for UNC, but you couldn't have watched the game without coming away impressed by the Bears' talent and toughness. They are going to win a lot of basketball games this year.
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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Early Season Notes and Trends
There have been quite a few games over the past week that I haven't had the chance to write about, but rather than look at them in much detail, I thought it might be interesting to take a quick look around the league and look at one or two interesting stat or trend each team!
Eastern Washington - When you look at some of their individual defensive rebounding numbers (Venky Jois - 18.7 DR%, Martin Seiferth - 30.3 DR%, PG Drew Brandon - 22.0 DR%), you would think that hardly anyone is getting offensive rebounds against them. However, opponents have grabbed 39.5% of available offensive rebounds, putting EWU 303rd in the country. Also, through three games, Eastern Washington has taken 72 threes, with guard Tyler Harvey accounting for 31 of them himself, over ten per game. Of course, nobody will complain about a guy taking that many threes when he makes 48% of them, as Harvey has done so far this year.
Idaho State - Through three games, Idaho State continues to play at a much faster pace than last season. While they only had one game over 70 possessions last season (an OT game against Southern Utah), all three of their games have achieved that so far. They had 1.15 PPP in their win over San Francisco, and that improved offense is a good reason that Bengals fans have to be optimistic.
Montana - Through two games, it's hard to be more efficient than Brandon GFeller has been. He has an EFG of 106.2%, thanks to shooting 6/8 from the field, including 5/7 from downtown. One of the main guys getting him the ball is Kareem Jamar, who has a 35.0 ARate and sports a cool 2:1 A:TO ratio. He is great. As a team, though, there has only been one squad worse at grabbing offensive rebounds, as Montana is only rebounding 9.7% of their misses. That will go up, but they look like a very poor offensive rebounding team.
Montana State - Senior Antonio Biglow has really struggled this year, as he is 0/9 from downtown. He has distributed the ball ok, but they need him to be more of a scoring threat than he has been. Defensively, they have struggled, going into Thursday's game against CS Northridge allowing 1.13 PPP. Then they sent the Matadors to the foul line an astounding 40 times. They need to get better defensively, and in a hurry.
North Dakota - Jaron Nash was a bit of a question mark heading into the year, but through two games (one against an NAIA team), he has been everything they could have hoped for and more. He has a 133.1 ORtg, is hitting outside shots, and has a robust 23.1 DR%. Those are all-conference type numbers, so expect to see a dropoff, but he looks like a highly productive player for UND.
Northern Arizona - It's fair to say that Jack Murphy is still figuring out the bench rotation, and who he can trust back there. PG Aaseem Dixon has played 90.1% of the team's minutes, and Gaellen Bewernick has played 88.1% of them. One guy that has stood out to me is Kris Yanku, who I think could be a Big Sky assist champion at some point in his career. He has a stellar 27.1 ARate in the first four games of his career, but is struggling to gain the coaches' trust thanks to his abysmal 33.7 TO Rate.
Northern Colorado - If all you knew about the Big Sky was the current season games, UNC would probably be your pick for the best team in the conference. They are getting it done defensively, though part of it is a mirage though - opponents are shooting just 10% from downtown and 51.7% on free throws against them, both of which are unsustainable. However, they're playing well despite their offense not really having gotten going yet - their EFG% will be better than 42.8% by the end of the year, as they are shooting just 29% from downtown themselves. Senior forward Derrick Barden is averaging almost 14 rebounds per game... he is a joy to watch.
Portland State - More than anyone else in the Big Sky, it's tough to make conclusions on PSU, as they have only lost to UNLV (in a game they played well defensively but terrible offensively) and beaten Pacific Lutheran. One potential area of concern is finding someone to set up teammates for good looks. PG Tim Douglas has just four assists compared to ten turnovers. Brandon Cataldo has been a bright spot so far this year, grabbing then rebounds against UNLV, and shooting 7/11 from the floor through two games. He has always been talented.
Sacramento State - Though their strength is their backcourt, they have struggled holding onto the ball, turning it over a combined 32 times against Cal State Bakersfield and UCLA. Another struggle has been getting to the free throw line - against UCLA they shot two free throws all game. Dylan Garrity is shooting more than ever, and that's a good thing for the Hornets - he is an excellent shooter and scorer. The Hornets are still searching for frontcourt answers, and nobody seems to have really grabbed those spots yet.
Southern Utah - Outside of the opener against an NAIA team, they have had the offensive problems that were predicted - getting 0.88 PPP against Utah State and 0.73 PPP against California. They play a lot of young guys, and this was to be expected. Trey Kennedy and Juwan Major have had some promising debuts, and look to be a big part of the foundation for coach Nick Robinson.
Weber State - I covered them earlier this week, but an area of concern is that they aren't forcing turnovers, but they weren't great at that last season and their defense was still solid. They are still doing a good job of not allowing opponents to take threes, but the problem is teams shooting 53% on twos against them. Jeremy Senglin has impressed a lot of people in his first two games as freshman PG, but he only has three assists vs four turnovers... he needs to create a few more shots for others.
Anything else catch your eye so far this season?
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Eastern Washington - When you look at some of their individual defensive rebounding numbers (Venky Jois - 18.7 DR%, Martin Seiferth - 30.3 DR%, PG Drew Brandon - 22.0 DR%), you would think that hardly anyone is getting offensive rebounds against them. However, opponents have grabbed 39.5% of available offensive rebounds, putting EWU 303rd in the country. Also, through three games, Eastern Washington has taken 72 threes, with guard Tyler Harvey accounting for 31 of them himself, over ten per game. Of course, nobody will complain about a guy taking that many threes when he makes 48% of them, as Harvey has done so far this year.
Idaho State - Through three games, Idaho State continues to play at a much faster pace than last season. While they only had one game over 70 possessions last season (an OT game against Southern Utah), all three of their games have achieved that so far. They had 1.15 PPP in their win over San Francisco, and that improved offense is a good reason that Bengals fans have to be optimistic.
Montana - Through two games, it's hard to be more efficient than Brandon GFeller has been. He has an EFG of 106.2%, thanks to shooting 6/8 from the field, including 5/7 from downtown. One of the main guys getting him the ball is Kareem Jamar, who has a 35.0 ARate and sports a cool 2:1 A:TO ratio. He is great. As a team, though, there has only been one squad worse at grabbing offensive rebounds, as Montana is only rebounding 9.7% of their misses. That will go up, but they look like a very poor offensive rebounding team.
Montana State - Senior Antonio Biglow has really struggled this year, as he is 0/9 from downtown. He has distributed the ball ok, but they need him to be more of a scoring threat than he has been. Defensively, they have struggled, going into Thursday's game against CS Northridge allowing 1.13 PPP. Then they sent the Matadors to the foul line an astounding 40 times. They need to get better defensively, and in a hurry.
North Dakota - Jaron Nash was a bit of a question mark heading into the year, but through two games (one against an NAIA team), he has been everything they could have hoped for and more. He has a 133.1 ORtg, is hitting outside shots, and has a robust 23.1 DR%. Those are all-conference type numbers, so expect to see a dropoff, but he looks like a highly productive player for UND.
Northern Arizona - It's fair to say that Jack Murphy is still figuring out the bench rotation, and who he can trust back there. PG Aaseem Dixon has played 90.1% of the team's minutes, and Gaellen Bewernick has played 88.1% of them. One guy that has stood out to me is Kris Yanku, who I think could be a Big Sky assist champion at some point in his career. He has a stellar 27.1 ARate in the first four games of his career, but is struggling to gain the coaches' trust thanks to his abysmal 33.7 TO Rate.
Northern Colorado - If all you knew about the Big Sky was the current season games, UNC would probably be your pick for the best team in the conference. They are getting it done defensively, though part of it is a mirage though - opponents are shooting just 10% from downtown and 51.7% on free throws against them, both of which are unsustainable. However, they're playing well despite their offense not really having gotten going yet - their EFG% will be better than 42.8% by the end of the year, as they are shooting just 29% from downtown themselves. Senior forward Derrick Barden is averaging almost 14 rebounds per game... he is a joy to watch.
Portland State - More than anyone else in the Big Sky, it's tough to make conclusions on PSU, as they have only lost to UNLV (in a game they played well defensively but terrible offensively) and beaten Pacific Lutheran. One potential area of concern is finding someone to set up teammates for good looks. PG Tim Douglas has just four assists compared to ten turnovers. Brandon Cataldo has been a bright spot so far this year, grabbing then rebounds against UNLV, and shooting 7/11 from the floor through two games. He has always been talented.
Sacramento State - Though their strength is their backcourt, they have struggled holding onto the ball, turning it over a combined 32 times against Cal State Bakersfield and UCLA. Another struggle has been getting to the free throw line - against UCLA they shot two free throws all game. Dylan Garrity is shooting more than ever, and that's a good thing for the Hornets - he is an excellent shooter and scorer. The Hornets are still searching for frontcourt answers, and nobody seems to have really grabbed those spots yet.
Southern Utah - Outside of the opener against an NAIA team, they have had the offensive problems that were predicted - getting 0.88 PPP against Utah State and 0.73 PPP against California. They play a lot of young guys, and this was to be expected. Trey Kennedy and Juwan Major have had some promising debuts, and look to be a big part of the foundation for coach Nick Robinson.
Weber State - I covered them earlier this week, but an area of concern is that they aren't forcing turnovers, but they weren't great at that last season and their defense was still solid. They are still doing a good job of not allowing opponents to take threes, but the problem is teams shooting 53% on twos against them. Jeremy Senglin has impressed a lot of people in his first two games as freshman PG, but he only has three assists vs four turnovers... he needs to create a few more shots for others.
Anything else catch your eye so far this season?
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Monday, November 18, 2013
Idaho State Upsets San Francsico
These aren't the Idaho State Bengals of last season. Last year, it took the Bengals until January to score at least 60 points against a Division I opponent. On Monday night, they broke the 90 point mark - with a 93-90 OT victory over San Francisco.
In the process, the Bengals got career high totals from Chris Hansen (33 points) and Tomas Sanchez (24 points), while Andre Hatchett (20) tied a career high. Hansen was 5/11 from downtown, while Sanchez and Hatchett combined to make 21 free throws. It was the best offensive effort we've seen from ISU in a long while.
As well as they played, it almost ended in a disappointing manner. With the score tied at 90 with 24.5 seconds left, the Bengals had the ball with the chance to take the final shot. Sanchez was handling the ball up top, but seemed to panic a little bit when he got closer to a five second call. He fired a shot early, and then committed a foul on the putback, sending the Dons to the line. However, USF missed the front end, and Ayikaburo Preh swatted their putback attempt. Sanchez got the ball, and amazingly he got fouled with 2.2 seconds left. He calmly knocked down both freebies, and USF was unable to score. It was a big Bengals win.
ISU played lots of zone defense, as you can probably tell by the fact that the Dons fired 46 threes (making 17 of them). Often, it looked like USF was content to simply pass the ball around the perimeter and take a three. They hit a lot of them and got a lot of good looks, but they did ISU a favor by not trying to penetrate the zone.
By every measure, the Dons were favored to win this game. At times in OT, it looked like they had it under control. But ISU kept at it, and kept attacking. They were the aggressor, and it showed, as they took 35 FT attempts to 12 for USF. They got rewarded with a great road victory over a solid WCC team. It's the biggest sign yet that Bill Evans is on the verge of doing nice things with this program.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
In the process, the Bengals got career high totals from Chris Hansen (33 points) and Tomas Sanchez (24 points), while Andre Hatchett (20) tied a career high. Hansen was 5/11 from downtown, while Sanchez and Hatchett combined to make 21 free throws. It was the best offensive effort we've seen from ISU in a long while.
As well as they played, it almost ended in a disappointing manner. With the score tied at 90 with 24.5 seconds left, the Bengals had the ball with the chance to take the final shot. Sanchez was handling the ball up top, but seemed to panic a little bit when he got closer to a five second call. He fired a shot early, and then committed a foul on the putback, sending the Dons to the line. However, USF missed the front end, and Ayikaburo Preh swatted their putback attempt. Sanchez got the ball, and amazingly he got fouled with 2.2 seconds left. He calmly knocked down both freebies, and USF was unable to score. It was a big Bengals win.
ISU played lots of zone defense, as you can probably tell by the fact that the Dons fired 46 threes (making 17 of them). Often, it looked like USF was content to simply pass the ball around the perimeter and take a three. They hit a lot of them and got a lot of good looks, but they did ISU a favor by not trying to penetrate the zone.
By every measure, the Dons were favored to win this game. At times in OT, it looked like they had it under control. But ISU kept at it, and kept attacking. They were the aggressor, and it showed, as they took 35 FT attempts to 12 for USF. They got rewarded with a great road victory over a solid WCC team. It's the biggest sign yet that Bill Evans is on the verge of doing nice things with this program.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Sunday, November 17, 2013
What Happened to Weber State Against Colorado State?
When Montana lost their season opener to Minnesota, I took a look at some of their potential problems and issues, saying that while it was way too early to panic, it wasn't too early to take a look at some negative trends and potential problems areas for them. After Weber State's game on Saturday - an 88-67 loss in a game that many (myself included) thought they may be capable of winning - it's time to do the same for Weber State.
Over their first two losses, the place to start is on the defensive side of the ball. In the opener against BYU, they allowed 1.07 PPP. Against Colorado State, that number was up to (close your eyes, Weber State fans) 1.29 PPP, which is not good. Most notably, CSU shot 25/39 on two-point shots, which has to be disturbing for the Wildcats staff. It's one thing if a team catches fire from deep, but the way the Rams physically dominated the game is disconcerting, to say the last.
CSU scored 44 of their 88 points in the paint, led by JJ Avila, who scored 30 points, going 10/19 from the floor (9/13 inside the arc) and 9/9 from the free throw line. Center Gerson Santo was also 5/5 from the floor, as the Rams got almost anything they wanted.
Weber was great at stopping the three-ball last year, and surprisingly (with the results of their two games), they have actually been excellent in that area so far this year, with their two opponents hitting 8/26 from downtown in the two games. One thing the Wildcats are not doing is forcing turnovers. BYU had seven turnovers, while CSU only had 4. Not forcing turnovers and allowing opponents good looks have been the big areas of concern defensively.
Offensively, Davion Berry has struggled a bit (2/10 against CSU), but he will be fine. Probably the biggest concern has been Jordan Richardson at the two guard, as he has struggled in his transition to that role. It's only two games, but he has seven points in 57 minutes, and has two made field goals this season. That spot was occupied by Scott Bamforth last season, and it's been a big drop-off so far. Again, Richardson has a good track record of being a good player, but they need him to grow into that role during the non-conference season, as Jeremy Senglin seems to have entrenched himself as the point guard.
Like Montana last week, it's obviously far too early to panic (and Montana followed up a rough opening game with an impressive road win over South Dakota State), but these are definitely areas of concern for Weber State. They will have plenty of things to work on before the home opener against Utah State on November 26.
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Over their first two losses, the place to start is on the defensive side of the ball. In the opener against BYU, they allowed 1.07 PPP. Against Colorado State, that number was up to (close your eyes, Weber State fans) 1.29 PPP, which is not good. Most notably, CSU shot 25/39 on two-point shots, which has to be disturbing for the Wildcats staff. It's one thing if a team catches fire from deep, but the way the Rams physically dominated the game is disconcerting, to say the last.
CSU scored 44 of their 88 points in the paint, led by JJ Avila, who scored 30 points, going 10/19 from the floor (9/13 inside the arc) and 9/9 from the free throw line. Center Gerson Santo was also 5/5 from the floor, as the Rams got almost anything they wanted.
Weber was great at stopping the three-ball last year, and surprisingly (with the results of their two games), they have actually been excellent in that area so far this year, with their two opponents hitting 8/26 from downtown in the two games. One thing the Wildcats are not doing is forcing turnovers. BYU had seven turnovers, while CSU only had 4. Not forcing turnovers and allowing opponents good looks have been the big areas of concern defensively.
Offensively, Davion Berry has struggled a bit (2/10 against CSU), but he will be fine. Probably the biggest concern has been Jordan Richardson at the two guard, as he has struggled in his transition to that role. It's only two games, but he has seven points in 57 minutes, and has two made field goals this season. That spot was occupied by Scott Bamforth last season, and it's been a big drop-off so far. Again, Richardson has a good track record of being a good player, but they need him to grow into that role during the non-conference season, as Jeremy Senglin seems to have entrenched himself as the point guard.
Like Montana last week, it's obviously far too early to panic (and Montana followed up a rough opening game with an impressive road win over South Dakota State), but these are definitely areas of concern for Weber State. They will have plenty of things to work on before the home opener against Utah State on November 26.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
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