Northern Arizona Might Be Better Than You Think

Most observers of the Big Sky know two things about Northern Arizona. One is that leading scorer DeWayne Russell transferred from the program right before the start of the season. Two is that the team is 3-8 heading into conference play. Based on those things, it would be reasonable to assume that the Lumberjacks will be closer to the bottom of the conference than competing for a conference tournament spot.

However, they are a team that could be right in the thick of things for the number six seed.

Like Weber State, most of their losses have come against quality competition, and they have not looked terrible against that competition. Among their losses:

- A four point road loss to USC (KenPom ranking: 100) in a game they led by 10 at the half.
- A 12 point road loss to Loyola Marymount (142), who is 8-4. This was also a tight game throughout.
- A four point road loss at Fresno State (142) in overtime, in a game that they also led heading into the final ten minutes.
- A 10 point home loss to Hawaii (113) in a game that was tied at the half. Hawaii just beat St. Mary's and Oregon State.

Obviously, it would have been nice if they could have won a couple of these games. But, they are staying in close games against solid competition, often on the road. That could be a positive harbinger for a better than expected conference season, because eventually some of the luck is going to go their way.

They are still finding their offense (0.96 PPP against DI competition), but their defense has been surprisingly okay. They are allowing 1.05 PPP, which is actually fourth best in the Big Sky. They are especially doing a good job of forcing turnovers, with an 18.8% turnover rate forced.

They have an excellent inside scorer in Max Jacobsen, who continues to shoot over 60% in the post. Junior guard Quinton Upshur has struggled with his outside shot, but he can be a dynamic weapon if his jumper gets a little more consistent. Guys like Aaseem Dixon and Gaellen Bewernick are talented as well.

NAU's record at 3-8 is not where they would want it to be, obviously. They have a lot to figure out still, especially on the offensive end. But don't sleep on the Lumberjacks, because they are better than you think, and they just might be a Big Sky tournament team once again, which would be a nice feat for Jack Murphy in a rebuilding program.

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Under the Radar Big Sky Players

Sometimes I find myself talking about a lot of the same players on this blog. So, I wanted to take a post to talk about some of the more "under the radar" guys on a few clubs, and take a look at their games. No real rhyme or reason, just some guys that don't get a lot of mentions, but could be interesting to take a look at.

- Tim Huskisson (Northern Colorado) - After starting the first two years of his career, he is unexpectedly UNC's sixth man so far this year, but has responded by playing his best per-minute basketball so far. Huskisson has always been a big talent, with some of the best athleticism in the Big Sky, along with a good outside stroke. He has always been efficient inside the arc, but this year he is 25/37, shooting 68% on twos. One aspect to his game that he has added is the ability to get steals, as he has a 4.5 Steal percentage, third in the Big Sky. He also has the best assist rate, and lowest turnover rate of his career. He is really developing in an all-around solid player, and that is a big reason why UNC has to be considered contenders this year. The key for him, as always, is consistency, but when he is playing well, he can be one of the best players in the Big Sky.

- Casey Oliverson (Southern Utah) - Oliverson is a sophomore in his first year with the Thunderbirds, and should have a nice career as a rotation guy for them. So far, his best skill is his offensive rebounding, with a 9.9% OR%, ninth in the conference. He has also flashed a little bit of skill as a shot-blocker, as he had three blocks against UC Riverside. He hasn't been a huge offensive threat so far (though he had a career-high ten points against Northridge), but he could be a nice fit for them as a rebounder.

- Brandon Gfeller (Montana) - He was too good for Montana to redshirt this year, and he is proving himself to be a reliable weapon off the bench. At this point in his career, he is just a shooter - but that is valuable for them right now. Gfeller is 11/24 from three-point range so far this year. He has only taken three twos (made all three), and he doesn't get many assists or add much defensively, but his range will be a nice asset for them this season.

- Max Jacobsen (Northern Arizona) - Don't look now, but Jacobsen has been the best post scorer in the Big Sky. He was one of the most improved players in the conference last season, and is showing that that improvement was no fluke. He has shot an astounding 63% on two-pointers (and it's not a sample size fluke - he is averaging almost 10 attempts per game), up from an already excellent 59% last year. He is not a great rebounder or defender, but if you get him the ball, he'll get you buckets. In a league without a lot of post scorers, that is huge.

- Andre Hatchett (Idaho State) - Hatchett is a guy that simply slots in for the Bengals wherever he is needed. In past years, he played a lot at the four spot. This year, he has been able to play a little more naturally at the three thanks to the addition of Jeffrey Solarin. While he has struggled this year offensively (only shooting about 40%), he has been a great defensive rebounder, which has been key for a team that struggled in that area last year. Still, like Gaellen Bewernick from NAU two years ago, I have a soft spot for undersized who do whatever the team needs. Hatchett is that guy.

- Cody Demps (Sacramento State) - Demps is an interesting player. He is 6'4'', but starts at the three spot for the Hornets, and does a lot of the little things for them. He rebounds 17.2% of available defensive rebounds, which is 11th in the Big Sky, and best on the team among guys that play at least 40% of the team's minutes. He is a solid passer and defender. However, there are still a lot of holes in his game. He turns the ball over way too much, with a 29.4 TO Rate. He is also still finding his way offensively. He is 14/28 on two-point attempts, but 4/15 from downtown, meaning he takes over two threes a game. For someone that is 9/35 in his career, that is way too many threes to take. He is a talented guy that can do some things, but until he finds a way to take better shots and take better care of the basketball, he is really holding the Hornets offense down.

- Terrell Brown (Montana State) - Brown has quietly been one of the better newcomers in the conference this year. While he is not shooting the three ball well so far this year, he has otherwise been efficient offensively. He has made 24/27 FTs, and 50% on two-point attempts. He doesn't turn the ball over. While he could be a better rebounder, if his outside shooting improves (and I think it will), he is an excellent complementary offensive weapon for the Bobcats.

Anyone else deserve a mention that doesn't get talked about much?

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Michael Dunn The Hero Again For Northern Arizona

Michael Dunn is starting to look like the most clutch player in the Big Sky. You may remember his game-winner against Northern Colorado a couple weeks ago, and now he had a big role late in helping Northern Arizona go in and knock off Sacramento State in Sacramento.

First, with the Lumberjacks trailing 59-58, it was Dunn with a steal and layup with 50 seconds left to give NAU the lead. After the Hornets took the lead back (on a Mikh McKinney basket), Mike Dunn was sent to the foul line with 7.4 seconds left, calmly knocking down both shots.

Dunn was far from the only hero for Northern Arizona. Gabe Rogers had a game high 22 points, including hitting 4/6 from downtown. Over the last two weeks, he has really found his stroke. Max Jacobsen had 16 points on 8/11 shooting, continuing his extremely solid junior season. NAU moes to 5-7 with the win.

Sacramento State falls to 5-7, and it had to be a disappointing game for Brian Katz. No disrespect meant to NAU, but beating the Lumberjacks at home is something you have to do if you want to be a top 4 team in the Big Sky. Konner Veteto (0 points, 0 rebounds, 3 turnovers in 14 minutes) was still hampered by a knee injury suffered on Thursday, but this will be a tough one for the Hornets to take, especially since they were up by 14 points with 11 minutes to play.

Congrats to Northern Arizona on a great win! With Portland State and Eastern Washington coming to Flagstaff this week, Jack Murphy could have his club sitting very pretty heading into the stretch run.

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The Big Sky's Most Under Appreciated Players

 

I thought it would be fun to take a look at some of the guys that don't seem to get a lot of publicity around the Big Sky (or maybe it's just that I don't talk about them enough). Sometimes role players who don't get their due, or starters who are overlooked because of other guys on the team. Anyway, a quick look at six guys who match that description for me.

- Jordan Richardson (Weber State) - After the departure of Damian Lillard to the NBA, much of the Weber State PG talk was about Gelaun Wheelwright, the talented sophomore. But quietly, Richardson has been excellent. He is making 49% of his threes, and leads the conference in assist to turnover ratio. Not bad.

- Jayson Cheesman (Southern Utah) - He has been a bad offensive player, shooting just 39% despite taking most of his shots near the rim. But he has excelled defensively and rebounding the basketball. He is fourth in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage, and first in block percentage (as well as top 25 in the country in that stat). He has had a nice debut season for Nick Robinson.

- Jordan Gregory (Montana) - He started at the beginning of the year, and now is a valuable bench player for the Grizzlies. He is showing signs of being a really good offensive player, knocking down outside shots and showing good strength with his ability to drive the basketball. He has work to go as a distributor, but he should slide into the starting spot next year and be a really good player.

- Lateef McMullan (Portland State) - Last season he was a bit of a chucker offensively, making just 31% from down. His TO rate was higher than his assist rate, and he was just an overall inefficient player. This year, he has been huge for the Vikings and showed vast improvement. He is up to 40% on threes, much better inside the arc, and his assist/turnover ratio is a lot better. If he keeps it up, it's not a stretch that he could get all-conference mentions.

- Max Jacobsen (Northern Arizona) - NAU is thin upfront, but Jacobsen has been a very pleasant surprise. He is scoring well in the post, and making over 60% of his shots. He is not a great rebounder, but has been respectable, especially on the offensive glass. One shudders to think of the NAU offensive post game without him this year.

- Tomas Sanchez (Idaho State) - Sanchez has become ISU's best player, with a ton of versatility and ability to help the team in a multitude of ways. He is the team's best outside shooter, leads the team in assists and steals, and is second on the team in rebounding. He hit the game-winner last week against Sacramento State. He is a ton of fun to watch.

Anyone else you think deserves more due?

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Northern Arizona Starts 1-0 in Big Sky Play

Last season, Northern Arizona won just a single Big Sky game, finishing with a 1-15 mark in the conference. This year, they have matched that mark after just one game.

Northern Arizona started fast and held on for an 87-80 victory over Montana State in head coach Jack Murphy's first career Big Sky game. Surprisingly, it wasn't the guard play that was the difference, but the play of big man Max Jacobsen. He came into the game averaging 5.9 points and 4.1 rebounds per game on the year.

Against the Bobcats, he was good for 22 and 9, icnluding 9/12 shooting from the court. He also had a couple blocks for good measure. He was the difference with key post points when MSU was making their second half surge (it was an 18 point game at half, but the Bobcats cut it to as low as five in the second frame). Jacobsen was a star, and if he continues that, NAU is a legit threat in the Big Sky.

DeWayne Russell was solid but not spectacular. He had 12 points at the break before finishing wiht 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. All five NAU starters finished in double figures. Senior PG Stallon Saldivar picked up his 400th career assist in the game as well.

For Montana State, they drop to 2-6 on the year, and they didn't look great in this game. They struggled in a major way defensively, and only looked good offensively in spurts. Antonio Biglow had 15 points, but they need him to be a guy that gets easy baskets for others as well. He had three assists compared to two turnovers. Xavier Blunt and Jamie Stewart are other guys with the talent to take over stretches and get others good looks, but they didn't do that in this game.

It's a big year for Brad Huse, but I have a feeling he still doesn't know what he has in his team. On the other side, we know what Jack Murphy has - a program on the rise.

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A Look At Northern Arizona's Recruiting Class

Coach Mike Adras lost arguably his two best players last year in Cameron Jones and Shane Johannsen, who both graduated. Thus, it brings importance to this year's recruiting class.

The best seems to be Danny Cheek, a 6'4'' SG out of California. Cheek is a great athlete that has the ability to attack the rim off the dribble. He averaged 15.3 PPG last year. He also has solid defensive potential. He could be the best freshman recruit entering the Big Sky this season.

Another guard that was signed is James Douglas, a 6'0'' PG. He averaged 17.3 PPG and 4.8 APG as a senior last year, and could have a nice future as a scoring guard. He is not super quick, but will find a role in the Big Sky. He probably won't get a ton of time this year, but he will be a nice player for Mike Adras.

The third guard signed is Colin Gruber, a 6'3'' guard that is a proficient scorer. Last season he averaged an impressive 26.6 PPG and 11.6 RPG, and set records at his school for points and steals. He is the son of a coach, and has at least Nor-Cal Basektball thinking he will have a nice career:

Gruber will need to add strength -- as do most freshman entering college basketball -- but Coach Mike Adras run a guard-oriented style and a number of other D-1 coaches are going to rue the day they passed on Gruber.

Northern Arizona also added a JUCO guard in Jywrell Wison (pronounced Ja-rell), who is a 6'3'' combo guard. Last season he averaged 24 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 4.5 APG. He will be a nice fit in Mike Adras' guard-oriented offense with his versatility.

Two JUCO big men were signed. The first was Max Jacobsen. At 6'8'' he averaged 22 PPG and 8 RPG. He is a threat to score in the low post, but can also come out and hit the 15 footer. He will definitely get a look in a frontcourt that is full of question marks. Also important to note that though Jacobsen is a JUCO guy, he will still have three years of eligibility remaining. He originally committed to Portland State out of high school.

More depth will be provided by Ephraim Ekanem. He averaged about 8/6 last season, and will give Adras some minutes, though his ceiling is a bit lower than Jacoben.

Mike Adras lost a lot of talent after last season, so this was an important recruiting class for him. NAU signed 6 players - 4 guards, 2 forwards - 3 high school players, 3 JUCO. There is a lot of talent there to be sure, so it will be interesting to see who plays this year, and how everyone comes together. Adras has proven himself to be a solid program builder, so it is not hard to envision these guys bringing success to Northern Arizona.

Where Will Northern Arizona Get Frontcourt Production?

Back when we looked at how Northern Arizona would (try to) replace Cameron Jones, we looked at the backcourt. But perhaps the even bigger question that that is... where will they get frontcourt production?

At 6'7'', Shane Johannsen was their best frontcourt player, as he was one of the most efficient players in the country. He had the best EFG% in the country, thanks to his ridiculously good 117/161 (72.7%) shooting from the field. Yes, that is correct... he shot 72.7% from the flooer. For his career he shot 69.5% from the field. That is not a typo. Oh yeah, Johannsen was also their best rebounder (22.2 DR%), and one of the best shot blockers in the country. He will be dearly missed.

One guy that will be relied upon is Austin Smith, who was a solid performer in a fairly limited role last year (he only played 12.6 minutes per game). He was also an efficient scorer, shooting 61% from the field, and with 11.1% of ORebounds coming his way, he can generate some extra possessions for the Lumberjacks. If he can keep his efficiency up, and maybe pull down a few more defensive rebounds (13.8 DR% last year), he will be a factor for them. He will be a junior this season.

After Smith, it is difficult to project. Josh Lepley would have had a role for them, but he was dismissed from the team earlier this year. It seems likely that JUCO big man Max Jacobsen will have a role as well. He scored 22 points and grabbed 8 rebounds per game last season, so he has shown he can be productive at the JUCO level. “We are excited to get him,” said Head Coach Mike Adras. “He is a great student. We see him as someone who can score and play in the low post. He can score around the basket and also step out and shoot a 15-footer and make shots.”

There are a few other possibilities, but it's difficult to tell how playing time will shake out. Ephraim Ekanem will get a look after coming over from Irvine Valley College. He averaged about 8 points and 6 rebounds a game last year, but he is a big, bruising body, who could give Adras some minutes. Ryan Schaefer sat out last season after having knee surgery, but at 6'9'' he will get a look. And then Gaellen Bewernick was a redshirt last season, but he is a forward at 6'6''. He is in the mold of a lot of guys that have success at the college level... undersized, but has a knack for rebounding and is athletic enough to be difficult to defend.

Mike Adras typically has some smaller teams, and that will be no different this season. After losing Shane Johannsen, there is a lot of uncertainty in the frontcourt. He has some options, but it is tough to say (other than Austin Smith) who will see the most playing time.

Who do you guys see as getting the most minutes?