Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Ken Pomeroy's Rating and the Big Sky

Last weekend, Ken Pomeroy released his rankings for the upcoming season, and if you read the post about Dan Hanner's predictions, you may notice some similarities. Here is the projected order, along with projected conference records, and national rank.

1. Weber State (16-4, 94)
2. Montana (14-6, 139)
3. Northern Colorado (13-7, 184)
4. North Dakota (11-9, 274)
5. Eastern Washington (9-11, 274)
6. Northern Arizona (9-11, 284)
7. Portland State (8-12, 291)
8. Idaho State (8-12, 300)
9. Sacramento State (8-12, 305)
10. Montana State (7-13, 313)
11. Southern Utah (6-14, 326)

- Like Dan, KenPom's predictions have Montana State and Sacramento State a lot lower than many are thinking heading into the season. With so little separation among teams in the middle of the pack, it's not hard to envision a scenario where these teams finish 6th or 10th. There's just not much difference.

- This model also has Montana second, but surprisingly has Northern Colorado very comfortably ahead of North Dakota. That is interesting.

- The model projects Weber State to have the best offense (by a wide margin) and best defense in the league, which is what actually happened last year. It projects Southern Utah to have the woret offense, and Portland State to have the worst defense. Both PSU and MSU are projected to have bottom give defenses in the country.

The season can't get here soon enough!

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