Monday, February 9, 2015

Big Sky Power Rankings 2/9/15

Let's take a quick snapshot of the Big Sky as of today... where things are sure to change in an instant, as always!

1. Eastern Washington (9-1) - Beating Montana on the road without Tyler Harvey earns them the top spot for me this week, as they led the Grizzlies by as many as nine late, winning 75-69. Montana's D has been solid, but the Eagles scored 1.21 PPP against them, thanks to a great day from Drew Brandon (27 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists). Saturday's tilt against MSU was a little more nerve-wracking, as they trailed the Bobcats by eight early in the second half, but they managed to come back and win by 10. They host Sac State on Thursday in the biggest Big Sky game of the year (I'll be previewing it in depth more as the week goes on), and they really need Harvey back.

2. Sacramento State (10-1) - If they beat EWU this Thursday, I promise you Hornets fans that they will be #1 next week. Their win Saturday night against PSU was a little closer than many would have expected, especially when the Hornets were up 9 at the half. PSU cut the lead to as little as two, and Sac State eventually won by 4. The Hornets are now 6-0 in Big Sky games decided by five points or less. This week will show a lot about them - a roadtrip to take on EWU and then Idaho is arguably the toughest in the Big Sky. If they can at least get a split, that'd probably be a good result.

3. Montana (8-3) - Montana got their chance to show they'll be a contender for the regular season title, and fell flat losing a home game to EWU. They responded well, however, holding Idaho to 0.90 PPP, forcing 17 turnovers in the process. Montana continues to hound teams defensively, and have long since showed that their solid defensive performances once Big Sky play started were not a fluke. They're the best defensive team in the conference, which is the biggest reason they're a legit tournament threat..

4. Northern Arizona (7-3) - I had been concerned earlier in the year about their offense, but those concerns have been assuaged somewhat. as they continue to put together impressive performances. While the biggest factor in that is probably due to Quinton Upshur looking like himself against over the past give games, I wanted to write a few words on Kris Yanku. He has been outstanding in all phases recently, really taking over the team. During their four game win streak, he's putting up 16 PPG, 7 APG, 6.5 RPG, and has only turned it over four times. You might not know it yet, but he's a star in the Big Sky, and seems to be getting better and better.

5. Northern Colorado (7-4) - The Bears did what they needed to do, getting a split on their last roadtrip. Now they sit at 7-4 with 5 home games left, so they're in a great spot. Though they have a balanced team, they seem to go as the backcourt duo of Cam Michael and Tevin Svihovec go. They complement each other well, as Michael is an excellent outside shooter, while Svihovec does his best work slashing and getting to the line. They will be a tough out because those two guys are tough to guard.

6. Weber State (5-6) - You can put 6-7-8 in any order, and I wouldn't argue. The Wildcats won their long game last week, beating ISU on the road by seven. While Jeremy Senglin can be inconsistent at times, his ceiling is high, as shown by his scoring 30 points on just eight field goal attempts on Saturday (he was 14/15 from the line).He gives them that elite guard talent that can sometimes be a wildcard come tournament time.

7. Portland State (5-6) - They almost got the big upset win over the Hornets, but couldn't quite get over the top in the second half. One subplot has been the minutes of Tim Douglas... A year ago, he led the team in minutes. This year, his play on the court (taken as a whole) has been fairly similar to last year - he is a an average outside shooter, poor inside, pokes away a few steals, and doesn't turn it over a ton. But he played 15 minutes Saturday, and has played less than 20 in 5 of the last 6. Gobbling up his minutes is freshman Iziahiah Sweeney. Something to watch for the Vikings going forward.

8. Idaho (4-6) - All things considered, it wasn't a real impressive week for the Vandals. They trailed MSU by 11 early in the second half (before winning by 9), and lost by 14 to Montana. It's clear their ceiling is higher than many other teams (they lost their three games against EWU and Sac State by 9 points total), but their floor is a lot lower than the mid-tier teams as well. This week's home games against PSU and Sac State will tell us a lot... they have the talent to win both and be a solid 6-6, or lose both and be sweating things at 4-8. I'm curious to see which Idaho team shows up, and I'm sure their fans are as well.

9. North Dakota (4-7) - Their road win over SUU Thursday was big, as it at least keeps them alive and in the discussion. This week they host the Montana schools, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that they'll be 6-7 heading into the final few weeks. Estan Tyler has become their workhorse - as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Another name to watch is Carson Shanks, a guy who has really been coming. They are absolutely still in the race for a tournament spot, but they don't have a ton of margin for error.

10. Southern Utah (2-8) - When SUU won two straight Big Sky games to go to 2-3, they could at least dream of a conference tournament spot. Five losses later (the last three at home), and it appears it was just that - a dream. They are a year away, but certainly there is hope for the future. Their bench still plays more minutes than anyone else's in the country, and they are still very inexperienced, with no seniors being a really key part of the core. It would be nice to get a few more wins to end the year to give them some momentum into the offseason, but the schedule won't be easy - arguably they will be the underdog in all of their remaining games.

11. Idaho State (2-9) - It doesn't look like the Bengals year. At 2-9, they are all but eliminated from conference tournament contention. The seven guys playing the most minutes for them are upperclassmen (five seniors, two juniors), which doesn't leave a ton of hope that next year will be better. I like Bill Evans as a coach, and feel he is very solid in terms of game-planning, but they just haven't had the talent to compete.

12. Montana State (1-10) - They have to feel like they let some games slip through the cracks... They led Idaho by 11 early in the second half Thursday, and then EWU by 8 in the second half Saturday, but lost both games by a combined 19 points. They at least showed they are a feisty club that won't lie down for any games. They hit you with a barrage of threes - they attempted 37 against Idaho, and 29 against EWU. Wins will be hard to come by, but they're starting to form an identity for the future.

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball

15 comments:

  1. Another excellent analysis Jon. I can pretty much agree with most of it. I can't stand EWU in any sport, but given that they lost a great quarterback this week (sympathy) and they beat the Griz at home (respect), I will give them some props and agree they are probably the team to beat. That said, if Sac State goes up to Cheney and kicks their butt, then there should be no more arguments about which team is the premier top team going into the tournament. Sac State's biggest problem is its front court and I think that plays a part in the general disrespect some have for the team in relation to the more balanced EWU - but man their backcourt is off the charts! One more quick point...I make no bones about it that I can't stand to watch Montana play hoops because of what I think is a very boring (yet effective) style of play...on the flip side, MSU may not have a very good record, but I really enjoy watching them play. They should give an award to the team that entertains the most regardless of record - EWU, MSU, and Idaho...love to bombs away...fun to watch! #1JacksFan

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  2. There really is no analysis needed for the Sac St vs EWU game, IF Harvey does not play. Sac State will rip EWU apart without Harvey. I just can not believe Harvey is "questionable" TWO weeks after getting a thigh bruise. To me this kid is a possible fringe NBA prospect, and he needs to show the scouts he has toughness. To let a bruise sideline you for potentially 2 weeks can not look good. The kid needs to get his treatment and grit it out. Missing the Montana road trip was his bruise rest week. This game vs Sac State is time to man up and put the team on his back. The way a good leader does! GO EAGS!! #1EagsFan

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  3. Harvey has thigh contusion ...grade 2 or 3 take time and therapy to heal

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    1. Exactly... it's not quite so easy as just "toughing it out" and getting out there. The guy played 95% of his team's minutes last year (6th highest rate in the country) and was about the same this year... Just because he has missed a couple games, it's not a call to question his toughness.

      As big as this game is, it's much more important that he is healthy for the end of the season, rather than having the issue linger because he rushes back.

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    2. Agree with both of you.... But this game probably could determine who hosts the tourney. Both teams are undefeated at home, so clearly hosting the Big Sky Tourney will most likely determine who gets the auto bid. I'm not questioning his toughness.... yet. But as a fan, that's our job. We cant always see sunshine and roses. Sometimes we need to talk about negative things as well. Being a die hard Seahawks fan, I think of it this way. What if Russell Wilson couldn't play a game due to a thigh bruise? Or if Kam Chancellor missed 2 weeks because he had a bruise? Funny to even type that, as well know that would never happen. Yes, I know Harvey isn't paid millions of dollars as they are, but still. I have a feeling if Chancellor or Wilson were playing for free, a bruise wouldn't keep either one out of a game of this magnitude. I love Harvey and think he is the man, just really hope he can play this game. Didn't mean to question his toughness.

      Go Eags.

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  4. Questioning Harvey's toughness isn't fair IMO. If he isn't ready to go, then he isn't ready to go. That said, I fully expect him to play this Thursday as there are a lot of implications on the line.

    Great run down Jon. No argument from me about EWU getting the top nod. They went into Missoula and cleaned house WITHOUT Harvey. That is damn impressive.

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  5. When is questioning his toughness allowed? I think you guys are a lot softer and more gentle with your sports passion. I'm not an east coast person, but I feel they are more like me when it comes to sports. I like to give credit where its due, and also point out issues.

    To me, if he misses this game, I think its very fair to start to ponder his toughness. All we have been told is he has a thigh bruise. We have not been told anything else. A thigh bruise is painful and not fun. But that being said, it shouldn't keep a fine tuned athlete out of action for 2 weeks. And if he misses this game, its probably safe to assume he wont play Saturday also.

    Just asking if you ever feel its fair to question toughness, because if you don't, then we will never agree anyways.

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  7. The last time we played EWU at the Nest, Harvey was flat out worn out by the end of the game. If he plays Thursday we will make him work even harder this time. He will have his work cut out for him trying to stay with our guards. On a bum leg I wish him luck.

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  8. Two things re: Harvey playing...
    1. I think the Eagles training/coaching staff and the injured player himself knows more than any of us do. If Harvey is injured....he's injured.
    2. The players owe us (the fans) absolutely nothing. The toughest part of our job is walking across the parking lot and conquering a flight of stairs pre and post game.

    I'll step off my soapbox now.
    -MTJack

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    1. Yep... considering it's a college kid, and really, I know next to nothing about his injury or the extent of it, that is why I wouldn't ever question a guy's toughness in college basketball. There is just so little I know about the situation.

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  9. Contusion not is not a bruise. Significance of a game has no bearing on how fast an injury heals. If Doc says he is ok to play he will , if not he will not very simple. Toughness has nothing to do with it.

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    1. Disagree. A contusion is a bruise. Doc's make recommendations, players play. This isn't a concussion where the Dr has to clear him, this is a thigh bruise. You are all making this out to be some severe injury, that requires Dr clearance. This is a bruise, something that causes the player discomfort. I still stand by my comments made above, he needs to play this game, due to magnitude of the game and due to having 14 days to rest his injury. This is my last comment. Agree to Disagree.

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  10. Harvey will be more important in tourney time than hosting the game. Therefore rest him if he can't gi. Don't forget the last time these Teams met EWU didn't have Venky Jois. I thinks that's a huge factor for the Eags. Sac State is very good, so is EWU. The Eagles have a ton of guys that can shoot so Harvey's absence isn't as crippling as losing one of the best post players in the conference.

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  11. Factoid... 2 types of Quad Contusions intra and inter muscular both involve muscle Tearing. If it is more than a grade 1 contusion it will require medical clearance to return ..riteria are similar to muscle strains for return to sports in contusions of the quadriceps. The athlete should be pain free, attain 120° of knee flexion with hip extended, and perform all aspects of functional field testing without limitations [13]. Protective thigh padding is recommended prior to resuming sports in order to reduce recurrence. The End for all reasonable people

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