Monday, March 16, 2015

Georgetown Scouting Report

Georgetown finished the year 21-10, and went 12-6 in the Big East, losing to Xavier in the Big East Tournament. They are the four seed in the South region, and thus they are Eastern Washington's first round opponent. Early lines seem to have Georgetown favored by 8 points.

For the season, they scored 1.103 PPP (41st in the nation), and allowed 0.94 PPP (25th in the country). For comparison, EWU scored 1.10 PPP (46th), and allowed 1.08 PPP (279th). Georgetown played at a much slower pace than EWU, but their offensive is every bit as good as the Eagles, with their defense being quite a bit better than EWU's outfit.
Offensively, the Hoyas excel at drawing fouls and getting easy buckets in the paint. They show 50.4% on twos this year, a top 75 rate in the country. They are also a great offensive rebounding team, finishing with a rate in the top 75 in the country there as well.

In the post, a lot of those efforts are centered on Joshua Smith, who many may remember from the start of his career at UCLA. He is a behemoth of a man with great touch around the basket, and great rebounding instincts, especially on the offensive glass. Smith shot 63% this year, and had an offensive rebounding rate of 15.4%, which was 14th in the nation (he is no slouch on the defensive glass, but especially excels offensively). Safe to say that EWU hasn't faced anyone quite like him, if only because there aren't many guys like him.

As good as Smith is, the Hoyas best player is junior guard D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who can hurt you in different ways. He excels at getting to the foul line, as he took almost five FTs per game, making 88% of his attempts. He can also hurt you from long range, where he shot 40%. In terms of ball distribution, he is their best shot creator for other, with a 20.0 Assist Rate compared to a 11.6 TO Rate. Simply out, there isn't a lot he can't do.

There are other weapons too. Jabril Trawick can score inside or out, and shot 55% on two-point attempts this year. Freshman Isaac Copeland is a future pro. Aaron Bowen shoots 60% on twos and comes off the bench. They are going to be tough to cover. Everyone knows about the Princeton offense, and EWU will need to be very disciplined defensively.

For as good as Georgetown can be offensively, they are even better on the defensive end of the court. They simply don't give you anything inside - teams shoot 42.7% inside the arc, the 21st best defensive mark in the nation. They force turnovers, and they block a lot of shots. They have been susceptible at times to three-point shooting teams, as opponents have shot 35.9% from downtown against them. This could play into EWU's hands, but we'll get into that later in the week. The Hoyas have also had a tendency to put their opponents on the foul line, though that is something that EWU will have a harder time to naturally take advantage of in their offense.

The anchor for Georgetown's defense is 6'9'' senior Michael Hopkins. He is 60th in the NCAA in block rate, and can get some steals as well. He is solid on the defensive glass as well. He is a big part of the reason why the lane can be a tough place to do much against Georgetown.

That's a quick look at the Hoyas... later in the week we'll come back with some ways that Eastern Washington might attack them, and what might be needed for an upset to occur.

After the brackets were unveiled, a lot of people pointed to the Hoyas being overseeded, and this being one of the most picked upsets. But make no mistake - This is a really good Georgetown team, and upset will still be an uphill battle.

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