Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Thursday Predictions

Four Big Sky games on the docket... none of them involve two teams that are outside of the tournament picture, so that should make for a fun night of games! Let's run through them.

Sacramento State @ Southern Utah
We already know the stakes of the game. Sac State hosts the Big Sky tournament if they win, and SUU could be eliminated from the tournament if they lose (coupled with a Weber State loss). While SUU is at home, they are just 3-4 in Cedar City in Big Sky play this year, so it's not like they're invincible there. I think the Hornets can taste that conference title, and that will be all the motivation they need to go out and get it. Sacramento State 77, Southern Utah 71

Eastern Washington @ Idaho State
The Bengals are in the middle of a lost season - at 3-13 they are just trying to get out of the cellar. On the flip side, EWU still has a shot for the title. The Bengals zone has a tendency to give teams good looks from the outside, and that plays right into the Eagles hands. It was a fairly close game when these teams played in Cheney, and should be close again, as ISU will look to slow things way down. However, they won't have enough offensive firepower to win this game. Eastern Washington 71, Idaho State 61

Idaho @ Weber State
Idaho is technically not in yet, so they are trying to clinch a berth in the Big Sky tournament. Weber State got great play last week from Chris Golden, who was one of the co-players of the week in the conference. He averaged 21 points, and shot the ball well. That is production they desperately need, since leading guard Jeremy Senglin is still out with a broken jaw. With the way Idaho has played this year, you never know what to expect from half to half, and with Weber playing for their tournament lives, I expect them to come out a little stronger. Weber State 69, Idaho 67

Portland State @ Northern Arizona
Like Idaho, PSU needs a win to completely clinch a tourney spot, though they are in better shape due to holding a tiebreaker over Southern Utah and Weber State (in fact, I'm not sure how they could fall out of the tournament, but I'm trying to confirm if they've clinched or not). However, I just think NAU is the better team here, and playing at home, they should win this game. NAU should be able to create second chances, and get some good looks from three-point range. In a weird way, it might be advantageous for NAU to lose this and give PSU a better chance of moving to the 5 seed (rather than UNC or Idaho), but obviously they won't be thinking like that. Northern Arizona 76, Portland State 70


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  1. I really really really hope I am wrong, but the Jacks seem to play their best when they are playing for reason....problem with these last two games is that they mean nothing. NAU will be a 4 seed...I think they know that. I would not be surprised if NAU drops both of these last two games. #1JacksFan

  2. My game Notes:

    Sac State wins going away I think 10+ point victory. Hosting the tourney is so close they can taste. Start remodeling that rec center now.

    EWU wins by 10+ as well. Interesting note, EWU is 7-0 in Big Sky Thursday games. Look for that trend to continue.

    Weber gets a W. They have messed around and have been a let down long enough. I think they finish strong and make the tourney and win a game once in the tourney.

    NAU gets an easy W. Portland St's will was broken last week. Everyone thought they could beat Sac St and they folded like a cheap lawn chair. They will lose out.


    1. So you're saying Wildcats, if they make tourney as #7 or #8 seed, are going to win over Sac St or perhaps your Eagles or Griz in the first round?? That's a stretch!!!
      (This from a Weber fan... not this year, it's likely one & done.)

    2. IF they finish up strong and go 2-0 (which would include a win over EWU to end the year)

    3. As predicted, Weber State probably looked the best of any Big Sky team last night. I expect them to beat EWU on Saturday and enter the tourney with some momentum.

      EWU once again just cannot finish games strongly. THey almost allowed a pathetic ISU team to come back from a 19 point lead.

      Sac State - Wow. What a choke job. I am not holding out any hope EWU gets to host the tourney. So I'm actually rooting for Sac State to win. Going on the road to play in a rec center converted to an arena is much more natural than trying to win the Tourney in Missoula.

    4. *meant Neutral not natural

  3. Hornets need to just keep doing what they have been and they should win. That said SUU has nothing to lose and I expect them to leave it all on the court.

    Will PSU have Tucker back? They are just not the same team without him and probably drop tonight's game without him.

  4. And now it's a 3 way tie at the top & a 3 way tie at the bottom (BSC tourney seeds)!!! Hornets, Vikings, Vandals, Bengals lose; Eagles, Wildcats, T-Birds, Lumberjacks win. Saturday looms BIG in the SKY standings!!

  5. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if NAU wins on Saturday it will be the three seed. If that win is coupled with an Eastern Washington loss, they will be the two seed in Missoula?

    1. They couldn't be a three seed if Sac, Mont, and EWU all win. They would need one of them to lose, right?

    2. Sac plays NAU so that's where that thinking comes from. Actually need to review the tie breakers. NAU and Sac will be tied for third with a series split

  6. My humble picks for the tourney...

    EWU barely beats Idaho
    Sac State bounces back and whips PSU
    NAU gets the monkey off its back and beats UNC in a close one
    Montana loses to Weber (yep, I am calling it)

    EWU beats Sac St
    NAU beats Weber (every NAU game is close and this one will be too)

    NAU loses to EWU in the championship game (trust me, it pains me to predict this)