Sacramento State Outlook

It's time to get ready for the Big Sky season again with some overviews of each team this month, and then eventually we'll get into more detailed looks at everything.

What They Lost: One of the biggest reasons for optimism around Sac State this year is the fact that they did not lose a lot of key contributors from last season's team. The biggest loss was Jordan Salley, a forward who played about 40% of the team's minutes last year. He was a nice piece for them, as he shot 60% from the floor and was a solid rebounder in the frontcourt. Their other loss was forward Joey Quigley, who got some nice hype as a versatile forward when he committed, but never converted it into any reliable production. He was a bit player that struggled to produce when he did play. They did not lose anyone else that played any type of minutes, even inconsistently.

Who Returns: The other big reason for optimism around the Hornets is their backcourt, which certainly has a strong case to be the best in the league. Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney are both seniors, and both could be first-team all-conference players. Garrity has had a sterling four-year career, turning from a pass-first PG with limited scoring ability as a freshman (his assist rate was 12th in the nation his first year) into a dynamic scoring guard who is still a good distributor. Last year he made 48% of threes on five attempts per game. You may also remember his 70 footer to beat Weber State, one of the best moments in college basketball last year.

McKinney, meanwhile, was one of the most improved players in the Big Sky last year. He greatly improved his scoring efficiency (53% twos, 33% threes, and 82% FT on plenty of attempts), while becoming one of the best assist men in the conference, surpassing even Garrity. Improbably, he was better than Garrity last season, and should be poised for a big senior year. Cody Demps is the nominal small forward, but has the versatility to play some different spots. He would be better served not taking so many threes (9/44 last year), but is a glue guy for them. Dreon Bartlett also returns in the backcourt as a three-point shooting specialist off the bench.

Up front, they will rely on Eric Stuteville, a big man that got better and better as the season went along. Toward the end of the year, he showed flashes as a diverse scorer in the post who holds his own on the glass. His potential is probably as one of the better bigs in the conference. Zach Mills is only 6'5'', but he did some nice things for them as a junior, and can play the four spot. He is a good outside shooter, and decent on the defensive glass. Senior Alex Tiffin will be in his second year, and there seems to be some optimism about him, though he didn't flash a ton as a junor. He shot just 43% last year. Nick Hornsby is one other returner that will contribute. He was a well regarded recruit coming into last year, though he got lost in the shuffle a bit as a freshman. In a bit under 15 minutes per game, he showcased nice versatility and skill on the glass, but struggled to score. He shot just 38% on twos and 4/18 from three. If he can find good shots and become a bit better putting the ball in the basket, he will be a nice all-around player for them.

Newcomers: One name to watch it Mason Stuteville (brother of Eric), who seems to be getting some pub as one of the best freshman in the league. He is a dynamic big man (though thin), who appears to have some inside-out capability. He will add another dynamic to the frontcourt which was a weak point for the squad last year. Another big man in the recruiting class is 6'10'' James Herrick, who averaged 11 and 11 last year, and is a bit more of a traditional big man as compared to Stuteville. They also have early signee Justin Strings, a 6'6'' forward who fits in the mold of shorter power forwards which have been so effective in the Big Sky. He averaged 18 and 8 last year and looks like he will be an impact player for them in time.

They also signed two guards. One is 5'10'' Jiday Ugbaja, a very good athlete who could be a great shooter for them. He may not have an impact right away because of the other depth, but he could be starting as soon as next season. He could be joined next year by Marcus Graves, who had the impressive stat line of 17.6 PPG/5.4 RPG/ 4.6 APG last year. Coach Katz compared his game to Garrity's, calling him a "shooter that can drive." Similar to Ugbaja, it's hard to say how many minutes will be available this year, but he should be an important long-term piece for them.

General Outlook: Sacramento State has never had a winning record at the DI level, but this looks like the year it will happen. In a league often dictated by guard play, they are in great hands with a senior backcourt of Garrity-McKinney. Though the frontcourt doesn't have the experience yet, they appear to have the talent with the Stuteville brothers and Zach Mills. After getting a taste of the Big Sky tournament last year, they are one of the favorites heading into this season. Don't be surprised if they not only have a winning record, but win the league, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

Note: This post was updated to include the part about Nick Hornsby, who I forgot about on my first posting.

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How Did Sacramento State Turn Their Season Around?

On January 25th, Sacramento State fell to Northern Colorado in Greeley, dropping their record to 6-11 overall, and 2-6 in the Big Sky. It looked like another lost season for the Hornets. Since then, all they've done is win 7 of 8, putting them at 9-7 in the Big Sky and on the verge of a conference tournament berth. In that time, they shocked Weber State, and beat North Dakota and Northern Colorado (convincingly), who have often looked like the second and third best teams in the Big Sky.

So, how have they done it?

The first factor, and perhaps the biggest, has been the schedule. The early portion of their Big Sky slate was tough, with six of their first eight on the road, including road trips to Montana and to the UNC/UND swing. The fact that they were 2-6 during that time (they played two home games, beating EWU and losing to PSU in overtime) is not that big of a surprise, because that is a tough slate.

Things obviously got easier. Of the 7-1 stretch, they have played six home games (6-0) and two road games (1-1). They avenged their loss to Portland State (but lost at EWU, the reverse of what happened when they hosted the teams), and then won six at home. As noted, it wasn't an easy stretch of home games, as they beat arguably the top three teams in the conference not including themselves, but they did benefit from a long stretch at home.

The other difference has been simple - they have become an offensive machine during the past eight games. According to my calculations, here are the differences in games against DI opponents:

6-11 start (which was really 4-11, since two of those wins were against non-DI teams) - 0.991 PPP
7-1 recent stretch - 1.166 PPP

To put it in perspective... that 0.991 PPP would be 8th in the Big Sky for the year, while the 1.166 PPP would be far and away the best in the conference. Using conference play only, the 0.991 PPP would rank 10th in the Big Sky, while the 1.166 PPP would be a close second behind Northern Colorado. If they had a 1.166 PPP all year, that would rank in the top 20 in the nation.

The defense has gotten a little better too, going from 1.106 PPP before the steak, to 1.053 PPP since the streak started. In the Big Sky this year (which is scoring at 1.09 PPP for the year, second highest in the NCAA among any conference), that 1.05 mark is actually pretty good.

It's not hard to see their strengths - they have the best backcourt in the Big Sky, with both Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney putting up great junior seasons. Garrity has been fantastic throughout his career (he is a great shooter and solid distributor), so his stardom is no surprise. He has increased his three-point percentage to a deadly  46% rate, while shooting it more than he ever has. That has been huge for them, because every shot he takes is a good shot for them, for the most part.

McKinney has been more of a surprise... in his first season last year, he showed flashes of being a nice off the dribble with a outside shot that was at least good enough to keep defenses honest, along with a good ability to get to the line. This year, he has grown in many ways, and might be one of the more improved guys in the Big Sky. While his outside shot hasn't been falling (hi 3PT% is down from 37% to 31%), but he has become a better finisher, shooting 54% on two-point attempts, up from 41% last year (that is HUGE). He has maintained his excellent ability to get to the line (and shooting 85%). He has also grown to be more of a distributor... while Garrity's assist rate has dropped, that is due to McKinney taking on more playmaker duties, as his Assist Rate jumped from 20.2 to 29.2, another huge jump.

The frontcourt has always been a question mark, but that has picked up recently, as Zach Mills has played well, and Eric Stuteville is becoming the reliable option we thought he would be.

So, will the success continue? Yes and no. They travel to take on Weber State and a desperate Idaho State team this weekend, and 1-1 would be a success. Then they are at home to take on the Montana schools. The guess here is they finish 11-9, around the 5th seed in the Big Sky tournament.

Going forward, they have a chance to make some noise in the Big Sky tournament, because they have a great backcourt duo, and an emerging frontcourt. They are an offensive machine over the last month, and the defense has looked better too. They aren't getting a ton out of their seniors either, so it's not out of the question that they could be a favorite heading into the Big Sky next season, a thought that would have been inconceivable a month ago. It's been a rapid rise for the Hornets, and the best should be yet to come.

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What Will Sacramento State's Frontcourt Look Like?

Last season, Sacramento State had one of the most experienced frontcourts in the conference, with senior starts Konnor Veteto, Joe Eberhard, and John Dickson. The flipside is that this year, with all of those guys gone, there is not a lot of certainty in their frontcourt heading into this season.

Like we did with Southern Utah's scoring, let's just take a rundown of some of the guys that might be involved.

- Joey Quigley - Of their returners, Quigley logged the most minutes among those vying for frontcourt roles, so that seems to put him at the top of the list. He is a versatile guy that seems to have the skillset to play inside and outside, but he struggled last season as a junior, his first year in the program. He shot just 31% on twos, and 4/16 from deep, not really dishing out assists or grabbing any offensive rebounds, making him a serious liability last year. He did grab a solid number of defensive rebounds (15.3% DR%), but he needs to improve offensively. The skills appeared to be there, so maybe he can be more comfortable as a senior.

- Jordan Salley - He was efficient when he shot, at 22/36 for the year, but didn't get a ton of time as he was very turnover prone and only an average rebounder. Those things have to improve for him to be a good starting frontcourt player. He has the athletic ability to play and be effective, but he needs to clean things up around the edges of his game.

- Ryan Okwudibonye - He missed almost all of last season because of a knee injury. His numbers from junior college suggest that he could be a frontcourt rotational player that can get some rebounds and defend, but is probably not a guy that will be counted on to play heavy minutes.

- Alex Tiffin - He sat out last season after transferring from UC Davis, and he could factor in for a starting role. Even though he didn't put up many numbers in his two seasons for the Aggies, the Hornets hope he can have a Konnor Veteto like impact in Sacramento, as Veteto improved a lot in his redshirt year after transferring.

- Eric Stuteville - He is the most intriguing guy in their frontcourt to me, a 6'10'' F that can play inside and out. Last year as a senior in high school, he averaged about 21 and 12 per game. He also averaged 3.5 blocks per game as a junior. He appears to have the most upside of anyone in the frontcourt rotation, and I think he could see big minutes early on in his career.

- Zach Mills - Mills is only 6'5'', but looks like he can play either the three or four spot for the Hornets. He is a great rebounder for his size, after grabbing over eight per game last season in junior college. He is in the mold of Joe Eberhard, a versatile player that can potentially fill in a lot of roles for Sac State.

Anyone stand out as someone that figures to get a lot of time for the Hornets?

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Sac State Gets Commitment From Eric Stuteville

Last week Sacramento State got a commitment from a big man for next year in 6'10'' F Eric Stuteville. I saw it first reported by Guss Armstead, who had some praise for him on twitter.

S/O to Eric Stutteville 6'9 On his commitment to Sac State Basketball.huge upside most underrated big on the west coast.
— Guss Armstead (@gussarmstead) November 7, 2012

The Hornets will lose a lot of talent up front, so he could have the chance to play early. Kevin McCarthy has a nice article up on him for norcalpreps.com.

He averaged 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocked shots per game last year as a junior, which are certainly quite impressive numbers. He is described as a late bloomer with a hard-nosed game. He says he has close to three-point range, and also a post-up game.

The Hornets have a lot of work to do to replace Konner Veteto, John Dickson, and Joe Eberhard. Landing Stuteville is a great start.

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