Sacramento State Outlook

It's time to get ready for the Big Sky season again with some overviews of each team this month, and then eventually we'll get into more detailed looks at everything.

What They Lost: One of the biggest reasons for optimism around Sac State this year is the fact that they did not lose a lot of key contributors from last season's team. The biggest loss was Jordan Salley, a forward who played about 40% of the team's minutes last year. He was a nice piece for them, as he shot 60% from the floor and was a solid rebounder in the frontcourt. Their other loss was forward Joey Quigley, who got some nice hype as a versatile forward when he committed, but never converted it into any reliable production. He was a bit player that struggled to produce when he did play. They did not lose anyone else that played any type of minutes, even inconsistently.

Who Returns: The other big reason for optimism around the Hornets is their backcourt, which certainly has a strong case to be the best in the league. Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney are both seniors, and both could be first-team all-conference players. Garrity has had a sterling four-year career, turning from a pass-first PG with limited scoring ability as a freshman (his assist rate was 12th in the nation his first year) into a dynamic scoring guard who is still a good distributor. Last year he made 48% of threes on five attempts per game. You may also remember his 70 footer to beat Weber State, one of the best moments in college basketball last year.

McKinney, meanwhile, was one of the most improved players in the Big Sky last year. He greatly improved his scoring efficiency (53% twos, 33% threes, and 82% FT on plenty of attempts), while becoming one of the best assist men in the conference, surpassing even Garrity. Improbably, he was better than Garrity last season, and should be poised for a big senior year. Cody Demps is the nominal small forward, but has the versatility to play some different spots. He would be better served not taking so many threes (9/44 last year), but is a glue guy for them. Dreon Bartlett also returns in the backcourt as a three-point shooting specialist off the bench.

Up front, they will rely on Eric Stuteville, a big man that got better and better as the season went along. Toward the end of the year, he showed flashes as a diverse scorer in the post who holds his own on the glass. His potential is probably as one of the better bigs in the conference. Zach Mills is only 6'5'', but he did some nice things for them as a junior, and can play the four spot. He is a good outside shooter, and decent on the defensive glass. Senior Alex Tiffin will be in his second year, and there seems to be some optimism about him, though he didn't flash a ton as a junor. He shot just 43% last year. Nick Hornsby is one other returner that will contribute. He was a well regarded recruit coming into last year, though he got lost in the shuffle a bit as a freshman. In a bit under 15 minutes per game, he showcased nice versatility and skill on the glass, but struggled to score. He shot just 38% on twos and 4/18 from three. If he can find good shots and become a bit better putting the ball in the basket, he will be a nice all-around player for them.

Newcomers: One name to watch it Mason Stuteville (brother of Eric), who seems to be getting some pub as one of the best freshman in the league. He is a dynamic big man (though thin), who appears to have some inside-out capability. He will add another dynamic to the frontcourt which was a weak point for the squad last year. Another big man in the recruiting class is 6'10'' James Herrick, who averaged 11 and 11 last year, and is a bit more of a traditional big man as compared to Stuteville. They also have early signee Justin Strings, a 6'6'' forward who fits in the mold of shorter power forwards which have been so effective in the Big Sky. He averaged 18 and 8 last year and looks like he will be an impact player for them in time.

They also signed two guards. One is 5'10'' Jiday Ugbaja, a very good athlete who could be a great shooter for them. He may not have an impact right away because of the other depth, but he could be starting as soon as next season. He could be joined next year by Marcus Graves, who had the impressive stat line of 17.6 PPG/5.4 RPG/ 4.6 APG last year. Coach Katz compared his game to Garrity's, calling him a "shooter that can drive." Similar to Ugbaja, it's hard to say how many minutes will be available this year, but he should be an important long-term piece for them.

General Outlook: Sacramento State has never had a winning record at the DI level, but this looks like the year it will happen. In a league often dictated by guard play, they are in great hands with a senior backcourt of Garrity-McKinney. Though the frontcourt doesn't have the experience yet, they appear to have the talent with the Stuteville brothers and Zach Mills. After getting a taste of the Big Sky tournament last year, they are one of the favorites heading into this season. Don't be surprised if they not only have a winning record, but win the league, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

Note: This post was updated to include the part about Nick Hornsby, who I forgot about on my first posting.

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Where Will Sacramento State Get Bench Production?

 

If you have been reading this blog lately, you know I think that Sacramento State has the potential to have their best team in quite some time. Their starting lineup has a legitimate claim to be one of the top three best lineups in the conference. However, the problem comes when they have to go to their bench... where will they get production?

In the backcourt, their best reserve could be Mikh McKinney, a junior college transfer (with three years of eligibility left). He is a combo guard capable of backing up Dylan Garrity and Jackson Carbajal. Last year, he averaged 14 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. I expect he should get the first chance at being a key performer off the bench.

There are three returning players in the backcourt - Jordan Estrada, Julian Demalleville, and Kendall Groom. Despite all the experience, all of them have been a bit underwhelming in their careers, and it seems like the newcomers will have all the chances they want to carve out a role. Cody Demps could be an interesting guy to watch, as he is extremely versatile at 6'4'', and Katz says he can play three spots. He could be a little raw, but he has the talent. Dreon Bartlett is also on the roster, but he seems like a prime redshirt candidate.

The frontcourt also has a lot of guys that could play, but not a lot of clarity, as three newcomers will likely be competing for most of the run. None of the three posted really impressive stat lines in junior college, but all bring different skill sets. Ryan Okwudibonye is the most traditional of the big men, and can play the three or four. He is not a strong offensive player, with just 4.6 points per game on 44% shooting, but could bring a defensive and rebounding presence.

Joey Quigley is a bit more skilled, and projects as more of a stretch four. He can handle the ball a bit more, and is a solid passer. Jordan Salley has good athleticism, but may struggle to produce consistently. He will be a backup at the four as well.

The Hornets need at least two or three of the newcomers to become consistent producers, and guys they can count on in the second unit. If they do, the Hornets will make the conference tournament. If they can't find that productivity, it could be another year watching the tournament from home.

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Dreon Bartlett Will Be A Hornet

Sacramento State has signed their fifth player of the recruiting class, as guard Dreon Bartlett will be coming aboard. Brown is a 6'2'' combo guard that was a high school teammate of Dylan Garrity, so that likely helped bring him to Sacramento State.

ESPN's scouting report had this to say about him, as of last September:

Strengths:
Barlett has an ideal scoring guard frame with long arms and high hips. He is wiry athlete who is quite springy out in transition and while attacking the basket. He can explode to the rim off the dribble or pull-up and hit the mid-range jump shot (good lift).

Weaknesses:
Barlett needs to continue to polish his ball skills. While being tightly defended his ball handling can get a bit sloppy. In addition, he needs to continue to smoothen out his jump shot out to the stripe. Defensively, he plays to straight up and down and needs to bend his knees to improve his lateral quickness.

Bottom Line:
Barlett is more prospect than player at this stage and will probably need a couple of seasons of community college to hone his skills, but the upside is there.

Bartlett is a guy that has good athletic ability and burst, but needs to get better handling the ball (especially if he plays any PG, which he may need to do at his height) and needs to improve his jumpshot. It should be interesting to watch his development.

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