Through two games in the Big Sky Tournament, the favorites have advanced on the backs of their stars.
The first game of the day was an entertaining, back and forth affair between Eastern Washington and Idaho. Points came in flurries, with the Eagles eventually prevailing 91-83 to move on.
They were led by Tyler Harvey, who was simply sensational, tying a Big Sky tournament record with 42 points. He was 13/20 from the field, and hit eight threes in the victory. It wasn't a case of Idaho losing track of him either... Harvey hit stepback jumpers with guys in his face. He was essentially unguardable at times, and it was a lot of fun to watch. Mikh McKinney was a rightful MVP winner, but Harvey showed that at his best, he was the toughest guy to guard.
At times, it looked like EWU wasn't going to get enough from everyone else to get the win (other than Harvey, the Eagles were 5/20 from downtown), but they got just enough plays down the stretch. Venky Jois got a lot of defensive attention, but he eventually finished with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Ognjen Miljkovic made enough shots to be dangerous, and finished with 13. Bogdan Bliznyuk made some plays down the stretch. They got just enough from everyone else.
Idaho was almost not going to be denied, as they put on an offensive clinic of their own. The star was Connor Hill, who finished with 23 points and looked like a senior doing everything he could to prolong his career. At times, it looked like his range was unlimited. Perrion Callandret played perhaps the best game of his career, and gives them hope that they will have a great backcourt next year (along with Sekou Wiggs). Ark Mkrtchyan did his thing, as always. In the end, they just couldn't get the stops they needed. They were a fun team to watch, with a lot of offensive talent and the ability to raise their game against good opponents, but they just never found that elite level defensively.
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The Eagles opponent in the semifinals will be Sacramento State, who held off a pesky Portland State team to get the 70-60 win.
Portland State took care of the ball, and they were patient against the Sacramento State zone, but they just couldn't find enough good shots, as they were just 22/61 from the field. The Hornets were very disciplined in the zone, always staying in position and never overpursuing.
On the other end, the Hornets were powered by their starts. Dylan Garrity had 22 points and was 8/8 inside the arc, Mikh McKinney had 24 points, and Cody Demps finished with 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. The trio combined for 55 of the Hornets 70 points, showing why they are arguably the best trio in the Big Sky.
For the Vikings, Gary Winston was excellent, as the senior finished with 26 points, but the Vikings had no balance in this game. Tiegbe Bamba and DaShaun Wiggins both had their moments, but nobody else was able to get anything done against the Hornets zone. In the end, Sac State won this game with their defense, which is not a phrase we would expect to write about them this year.
The Eagles won an entertaining affair, while the Hornets slowly strangled the Vikings into submission. In the end, both styles get you into the Big Sky semifinals. The Eagles win will get a few more headlines because it was more visually appealing, but the Hornets arguably looked better in their victory.
We'll get a matchup that many expected to see in the title game for much of the season. It will be an even matchup, as both teams split in the regular season. It will come down to the stars - Harvey and Jois on one side, McKinney and Garrity on the other. We are all in for a real treat!
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Showing posts with label Mikh McKinney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mikh McKinney. Show all posts
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Tyler Harvey vs Mikh McKinney
Assuming that either Sacramento State or Eastern Washington win the Big Sky*, we can be pretty sure that the MVP of the league will be either Tyler Harvey (if EWU wins) or Mikh McKinney (if Sac State wins). That is just how these things go.
But, if the season ended today, regardless of whose team finishes slightly ahead of the other, who has been the better player? Or, if you had to start a team, who would you choose for this year? It's an interesting debate, because even though both are guards, they are very different players with different skillsets.
Harvey, as you likely know, is the leading scorer in the nation, at 24 points per game. It is not a fluke either... last year, he almost as good with similar usage. Since he first joined the lineup late in his freshman year, he has been a lethal shooter from downtown - he shot 43% from threes last year (on 8 attempts per game), and 49% this year (on 9 attempts per game). Those are borderline unbelievable numbers. Of course, this year he is also shooting well over 50% on twos (a big improvement from last year), and is almost automatic at the line while getting there often. Everything you want in a scorer, he has in his arsenal.
McKinney does more things well than Harvey, though he does not excel in any one area like Harvey does. It has been fun to watch him improve from year to year... he was an average guard as a sophomore, an all-conference candidate as a junior, and now, of course, one of the two best players in the conference as a senior. He is a good three-point shooter, though he doesn't necessarily inspire fear from the outside (though Weber State may agree to disagree). He is up to 41% from deep this year against all opponents. He is a good finisher at the rim, an area that has improved each of his three seasons. For the season, McKinney is shooting 54% from the floor, which is obviously fantastic for a guard. He is a better passer than Harvey, as his assist rate is fourth in the Big Sky. This year, his steal rate has also shot through the roof, and it's 11th in the country (he's averaging 2.7 steals per game).
Here's a quick and easy comparison of their numbers, weeded out to include only games against DI opponents (which is why some of the percentages may be slightly off from the paragraphs above - also, click to enlarge)):
What is the upshot of that graph? In short, Harvey is the better scorer - he is a better outside shooter with a ton more volume, and also does better at drawing fouls and getting freebies at the line. McKinney is certainly not a bad scorer in his own right, but more than anything he has a big edge in distributing the ball, and creating turnovers. Both guys take care of the ball extremely well, especially for how often they handle it (both have high usage rates).
The question on who is better, I think, comes down to personal opinion - it is easy to make a compelling case for either guy. Further each guy is suited well for his own team - the presence of Dylan Garrity as an elite shooter for Sac State allows McKinney to worry more about distributing, while the do-everything ability of Drew Brandon alongside Harvey allows him to be a great scorer.
Who would I take? If I had to choose, as of today, I think I'd take Tyler Harvey. His shooting ability just stretches defenses so much, which in a way helps his teammates offensively as much as McKinney's passing does (just in a different way). Also, I'm not sure Harvey doesn't have better distributing skills in him - he had a 26.3 Assist Rate as a freshman - only he doesn't need to do that as much because of the presence of Drew Brandon. Though McKinney's defensive chops make it tight too, I'd take Harvey and his elite scoring ability.
However, if you want to choose McKinney, I would certainly see the logic there, and I wouldn't argue strenuously. That he has made this a very legitimate debate is a testament to how good he has been.
I have put a poll on the left hand side of the page... would love to see what people think!
*There is a long way to go, obviously, but if I was a betting man and my options were either EWU/Sac State or the field, I'd take the former choice.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
But, if the season ended today, regardless of whose team finishes slightly ahead of the other, who has been the better player? Or, if you had to start a team, who would you choose for this year? It's an interesting debate, because even though both are guards, they are very different players with different skillsets.
Harvey, as you likely know, is the leading scorer in the nation, at 24 points per game. It is not a fluke either... last year, he almost as good with similar usage. Since he first joined the lineup late in his freshman year, he has been a lethal shooter from downtown - he shot 43% from threes last year (on 8 attempts per game), and 49% this year (on 9 attempts per game). Those are borderline unbelievable numbers. Of course, this year he is also shooting well over 50% on twos (a big improvement from last year), and is almost automatic at the line while getting there often. Everything you want in a scorer, he has in his arsenal.
McKinney does more things well than Harvey, though he does not excel in any one area like Harvey does. It has been fun to watch him improve from year to year... he was an average guard as a sophomore, an all-conference candidate as a junior, and now, of course, one of the two best players in the conference as a senior. He is a good three-point shooter, though he doesn't necessarily inspire fear from the outside (though Weber State may agree to disagree). He is up to 41% from deep this year against all opponents. He is a good finisher at the rim, an area that has improved each of his three seasons. For the season, McKinney is shooting 54% from the floor, which is obviously fantastic for a guard. He is a better passer than Harvey, as his assist rate is fourth in the Big Sky. This year, his steal rate has also shot through the roof, and it's 11th in the country (he's averaging 2.7 steals per game).
Here's a quick and easy comparison of their numbers, weeded out to include only games against DI opponents (which is why some of the percentages may be slightly off from the paragraphs above - also, click to enlarge)):
What is the upshot of that graph? In short, Harvey is the better scorer - he is a better outside shooter with a ton more volume, and also does better at drawing fouls and getting freebies at the line. McKinney is certainly not a bad scorer in his own right, but more than anything he has a big edge in distributing the ball, and creating turnovers. Both guys take care of the ball extremely well, especially for how often they handle it (both have high usage rates).
The question on who is better, I think, comes down to personal opinion - it is easy to make a compelling case for either guy. Further each guy is suited well for his own team - the presence of Dylan Garrity as an elite shooter for Sac State allows McKinney to worry more about distributing, while the do-everything ability of Drew Brandon alongside Harvey allows him to be a great scorer.
Who would I take? If I had to choose, as of today, I think I'd take Tyler Harvey. His shooting ability just stretches defenses so much, which in a way helps his teammates offensively as much as McKinney's passing does (just in a different way). Also, I'm not sure Harvey doesn't have better distributing skills in him - he had a 26.3 Assist Rate as a freshman - only he doesn't need to do that as much because of the presence of Drew Brandon. Though McKinney's defensive chops make it tight too, I'd take Harvey and his elite scoring ability.
However, if you want to choose McKinney, I would certainly see the logic there, and I wouldn't argue strenuously. That he has made this a very legitimate debate is a testament to how good he has been.
I have put a poll on the left hand side of the page... would love to see what people think!
*There is a long way to go, obviously, but if I was a betting man and my options were either EWU/Sac State or the field, I'd take the former choice.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Sacramento State Alone In First For Now
When everyone wakes up on Friday morning and checks the Big Sky standings (I assume this is something that people do), they will see Sacramento State alone atop the Big Sky at 3-0 after their 63-61 win over North Dakota. Eastern Washington and Idaho are currently 2-0, but the Hornets are the lone team with three wins.
It took a tough battle on the road to get the win, but the Hornets ended the game on a 9-3 run, and got a Mikh McKinney floater with 2.6 seconds left to give them the win. Among the notables, Sac State's 9-5 overall mark and 3-0 Big Sky mark is their best start since 2005-06, and they are 3-0 in the Big Sky for the second time since they joined the conference in the 90s.
There is nothing terribly impressive about North Dakota right now, though Grand Forks is always a tough place to go win, but I thought the way they won was encouraging. Their offense was bogged down a bit, and UND was able to do an excellent job on McKinney and Dylan Garrity, who combined for 23 points on 8/20 FG, which is a slow night for them.
However, the Hornets got others guys to step up. Senior forward Zach Mills played 35 minutes, and scored 17 points, including hitting 3/4 from downtown. Alex Tiffin had 12 points and 5 rebounds off the bench. Defensively, UND was 2/10 from the floor, and even though they shot the ball well overall, the Hornets didn't allow them second chance opportunities.
It was a full team win, and for a team that at times can be overly reliant on their two man backcourt, that is an even better sign than the fact that it happened to bring them to 3-0.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
It took a tough battle on the road to get the win, but the Hornets ended the game on a 9-3 run, and got a Mikh McKinney floater with 2.6 seconds left to give them the win. Among the notables, Sac State's 9-5 overall mark and 3-0 Big Sky mark is their best start since 2005-06, and they are 3-0 in the Big Sky for the second time since they joined the conference in the 90s.
There is nothing terribly impressive about North Dakota right now, though Grand Forks is always a tough place to go win, but I thought the way they won was encouraging. Their offense was bogged down a bit, and UND was able to do an excellent job on McKinney and Dylan Garrity, who combined for 23 points on 8/20 FG, which is a slow night for them.
However, the Hornets got others guys to step up. Senior forward Zach Mills played 35 minutes, and scored 17 points, including hitting 3/4 from downtown. Alex Tiffin had 12 points and 5 rebounds off the bench. Defensively, UND was 2/10 from the floor, and even though they shot the ball well overall, the Hornets didn't allow them second chance opportunities.
It was a full team win, and for a team that at times can be overly reliant on their two man backcourt, that is an even better sign than the fact that it happened to bring them to 3-0.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Conference Reset, Part 2
After taking a look at the teams on Monday, let's take a closer look at the players that could make up awards teams and award winners, as we head into conference play. These are my predictions for the first two all-conference teams.
First Team:
- Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington - As we enter Big Sky play, Harvey looks like the favorite for the POY. He plays for the best team, and he has continued right where he left off last year as a dynamic scorer. He is averaging 22.8 PPG, but that only tells a little bit of the story. He is shooting a touch under 50% from three point range on the year, and doing it in nine attempts per game, which is almost ridiculous. He takes great care of the ball, and scores efficiently inside the arc as well. He is a star.
- Mikh McKinney, Sacramento State - I give him the slight nod over Garrity because he does more things well. He is a good distributor, and he is third in the league in Assist Rate. He has shot over 60% on two-pointers, and is a good enough outside shooter to keep you honest. He has also been a menace defensively, with the second best steal rate in the nation, swiping the ball 3.3 times per game.
- Venky Jois, Eastern Washington - Jois has cooled down a little after a scorching start, but he has shown a lot of improvement this year, averaging 19 and 8 per game. He is shooting over 60% from the floor, and has gotten better from the stripe. Though the total rebound number is a little inflated due to the fast pace of EWU, he is a good rebounder, and one of the best shot blockers in the conference. Jois does it all for the Eagles.
- Martin Breunig, Montana - Before the year, an insider told me that Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and so far you could make the argument that is the case. His raw numbers of 16.7 PPG/6.4 RPG aren't as high as Jois, but he has been very good. He is shooting 64% from the floor, and 74% from the line. He's helped to turn around a lot of the rebounding troubles the Grizzlies have had the past couple years, and can block some shots as well. Foul trouble has limited his minutes quite a bit, but when he is on the floor, he's as good as any big man in the conference.
- Joel Bolomboy, Weber State - He hasn't been the offensive player we wanted him to be yet, shooting 44% on two-pointers against DI competition (he has feasted in two games against non-DI opponents), and hasn't rebounded it quite as well as his otherworldy rate from last year. But he still has the talent level to do that, and it should come together as the year goes on. No big man can match his athletic prowess.
Second Team:
- Dylan Garrity, Sacramento State - Garrity has really evolved in his career, but a playmaking freshman who led the conference in assists, into a senior who has to be one of the most feared shooters in the nation. He is a lethal weapon from the outside. He falls to the second team here because he has become more of simply a shooting specialist then he was in the past, but he could climb up to the first team.
- Mike Scott, Idaho - I have talked a lot about Scott this year, and he is a guy that has been efficient scoring 15.5 PPG (shooting 44% from three), while being one of the best distributors in the conference. He is second in the Big Sky in Assist Rate, which he has done while maintaining a minuscule turnover rate. He has been the most improved player in the conference.
- Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington - Brandon is the often forgotten third cog for EWU, a PG who does it all. Though not a great scorer (though he has been very efficient when he hasn't been shooting threes), he also averages 7 RPG from the PG position. Jim Hayford's offense needs a good PG, and Brandon has been that guy this year.
- Quinton Upshur, Northern Arizona - It's reasonable to wonder if we saw Upshur's peak last year, but he is a very productive guy that is capable of carrying their offense in some situations. Though not shooting the ball quite as well as last year, he gets a lot of respect from deep. One thing that could help him is if he can get a little better at the line, where is shooting just 59% this year, baffling for a guy with his shooting ability.
- Dominique Lee, Northern Colorado - Lee was excellent in a reserve role last year, but has been even better with increased minutes so far this year. He is super efficient, and has put up better rebounding numbers than anyone in the conference. He is a guy that brings a lot to the table, but doesn't take much off. He has to play the five spot more than you would like, but that doesn't diminish how good he has been.
Let's hear any snubs or your thoughts...
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
First Team:
- Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington - As we enter Big Sky play, Harvey looks like the favorite for the POY. He plays for the best team, and he has continued right where he left off last year as a dynamic scorer. He is averaging 22.8 PPG, but that only tells a little bit of the story. He is shooting a touch under 50% from three point range on the year, and doing it in nine attempts per game, which is almost ridiculous. He takes great care of the ball, and scores efficiently inside the arc as well. He is a star.
- Mikh McKinney, Sacramento State - I give him the slight nod over Garrity because he does more things well. He is a good distributor, and he is third in the league in Assist Rate. He has shot over 60% on two-pointers, and is a good enough outside shooter to keep you honest. He has also been a menace defensively, with the second best steal rate in the nation, swiping the ball 3.3 times per game.
- Venky Jois, Eastern Washington - Jois has cooled down a little after a scorching start, but he has shown a lot of improvement this year, averaging 19 and 8 per game. He is shooting over 60% from the floor, and has gotten better from the stripe. Though the total rebound number is a little inflated due to the fast pace of EWU, he is a good rebounder, and one of the best shot blockers in the conference. Jois does it all for the Eagles.
- Martin Breunig, Montana - Before the year, an insider told me that Breunig would be the best big man in the conference, and so far you could make the argument that is the case. His raw numbers of 16.7 PPG/6.4 RPG aren't as high as Jois, but he has been very good. He is shooting 64% from the floor, and 74% from the line. He's helped to turn around a lot of the rebounding troubles the Grizzlies have had the past couple years, and can block some shots as well. Foul trouble has limited his minutes quite a bit, but when he is on the floor, he's as good as any big man in the conference.
- Joel Bolomboy, Weber State - He hasn't been the offensive player we wanted him to be yet, shooting 44% on two-pointers against DI competition (he has feasted in two games against non-DI opponents), and hasn't rebounded it quite as well as his otherworldy rate from last year. But he still has the talent level to do that, and it should come together as the year goes on. No big man can match his athletic prowess.
Second Team:
- Dylan Garrity, Sacramento State - Garrity has really evolved in his career, but a playmaking freshman who led the conference in assists, into a senior who has to be one of the most feared shooters in the nation. He is a lethal weapon from the outside. He falls to the second team here because he has become more of simply a shooting specialist then he was in the past, but he could climb up to the first team.
- Mike Scott, Idaho - I have talked a lot about Scott this year, and he is a guy that has been efficient scoring 15.5 PPG (shooting 44% from three), while being one of the best distributors in the conference. He is second in the Big Sky in Assist Rate, which he has done while maintaining a minuscule turnover rate. He has been the most improved player in the conference.
- Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington - Brandon is the often forgotten third cog for EWU, a PG who does it all. Though not a great scorer (though he has been very efficient when he hasn't been shooting threes), he also averages 7 RPG from the PG position. Jim Hayford's offense needs a good PG, and Brandon has been that guy this year.
- Quinton Upshur, Northern Arizona - It's reasonable to wonder if we saw Upshur's peak last year, but he is a very productive guy that is capable of carrying their offense in some situations. Though not shooting the ball quite as well as last year, he gets a lot of respect from deep. One thing that could help him is if he can get a little better at the line, where is shooting just 59% this year, baffling for a guy with his shooting ability.
- Dominique Lee, Northern Colorado - Lee was excellent in a reserve role last year, but has been even better with increased minutes so far this year. He is super efficient, and has put up better rebounding numbers than anyone in the conference. He is a guy that brings a lot to the table, but doesn't take much off. He has to play the five spot more than you would like, but that doesn't diminish how good he has been.
Let's hear any snubs or your thoughts...
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Monday, October 27, 2014
Sacramento State Outlook
It's time to get ready for the Big Sky season again with some overviews of each team this month, and then eventually we'll get into more detailed looks at everything.
What They Lost: One of the biggest reasons for optimism around Sac State this year is the fact that they did not lose a lot of key contributors from last season's team. The biggest loss was Jordan Salley, a forward who played about 40% of the team's minutes last year. He was a nice piece for them, as he shot 60% from the floor and was a solid rebounder in the frontcourt. Their other loss was forward Joey Quigley, who got some nice hype as a versatile forward when he committed, but never converted it into any reliable production. He was a bit player that struggled to produce when he did play. They did not lose anyone else that played any type of minutes, even inconsistently.
Who Returns: The other big reason for optimism around the Hornets is their backcourt, which certainly has a strong case to be the best in the league. Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney are both seniors, and both could be first-team all-conference players. Garrity has had a sterling four-year career, turning from a pass-first PG with limited scoring ability as a freshman (his assist rate was 12th in the nation his first year) into a dynamic scoring guard who is still a good distributor. Last year he made 48% of threes on five attempts per game. You may also remember his 70 footer to beat Weber State, one of the best moments in college basketball last year.
McKinney, meanwhile, was one of the most improved players in the Big Sky last year. He greatly improved his scoring efficiency (53% twos, 33% threes, and 82% FT on plenty of attempts), while becoming one of the best assist men in the conference, surpassing even Garrity. Improbably, he was better than Garrity last season, and should be poised for a big senior year. Cody Demps is the nominal small forward, but has the versatility to play some different spots. He would be better served not taking so many threes (9/44 last year), but is a glue guy for them. Dreon Bartlett also returns in the backcourt as a three-point shooting specialist off the bench.
Up front, they will rely on Eric Stuteville, a big man that got better and better as the season went along. Toward the end of the year, he showed flashes as a diverse scorer in the post who holds his own on the glass. His potential is probably as one of the better bigs in the conference. Zach Mills is only 6'5'', but he did some nice things for them as a junior, and can play the four spot. He is a good outside shooter, and decent on the defensive glass. Senior Alex Tiffin will be in his second year, and there seems to be some optimism about him, though he didn't flash a ton as a junor. He shot just 43% last year. Nick Hornsby is one other returner that will contribute. He was a well regarded recruit coming into last year, though he got lost in the shuffle a bit as a freshman. In a bit under 15 minutes per game, he showcased nice versatility and skill on the glass, but struggled to score. He shot just 38% on twos and 4/18 from three. If he can find good shots and become a bit better putting the ball in the basket, he will be a nice all-around player for them.
Newcomers: One name to watch it Mason Stuteville (brother of Eric), who seems to be getting some pub as one of the best freshman in the league. He is a dynamic big man (though thin), who appears to have some inside-out capability. He will add another dynamic to the frontcourt which was a weak point for the squad last year. Another big man in the recruiting class is 6'10'' James Herrick, who averaged 11 and 11 last year, and is a bit more of a traditional big man as compared to Stuteville. They also have early signee Justin Strings, a 6'6'' forward who fits in the mold of shorter power forwards which have been so effective in the Big Sky. He averaged 18 and 8 last year and looks like he will be an impact player for them in time.
They also signed two guards. One is 5'10'' Jiday Ugbaja, a very good athlete who could be a great shooter for them. He may not have an impact right away because of the other depth, but he could be starting as soon as next season. He could be joined next year by Marcus Graves, who had the impressive stat line of 17.6 PPG/5.4 RPG/ 4.6 APG last year. Coach Katz compared his game to Garrity's, calling him a "shooter that can drive." Similar to Ugbaja, it's hard to say how many minutes will be available this year, but he should be an important long-term piece for them.
General Outlook: Sacramento State has never had a winning record at the DI level, but this looks like the year it will happen. In a league often dictated by guard play, they are in great hands with a senior backcourt of Garrity-McKinney. Though the frontcourt doesn't have the experience yet, they appear to have the talent with the Stuteville brothers and Zach Mills. After getting a taste of the Big Sky tournament last year, they are one of the favorites heading into this season. Don't be surprised if they not only have a winning record, but win the league, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Note: This post was updated to include the part about Nick Hornsby, who I forgot about on my first posting.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
What They Lost: One of the biggest reasons for optimism around Sac State this year is the fact that they did not lose a lot of key contributors from last season's team. The biggest loss was Jordan Salley, a forward who played about 40% of the team's minutes last year. He was a nice piece for them, as he shot 60% from the floor and was a solid rebounder in the frontcourt. Their other loss was forward Joey Quigley, who got some nice hype as a versatile forward when he committed, but never converted it into any reliable production. He was a bit player that struggled to produce when he did play. They did not lose anyone else that played any type of minutes, even inconsistently.
Who Returns: The other big reason for optimism around the Hornets is their backcourt, which certainly has a strong case to be the best in the league. Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney are both seniors, and both could be first-team all-conference players. Garrity has had a sterling four-year career, turning from a pass-first PG with limited scoring ability as a freshman (his assist rate was 12th in the nation his first year) into a dynamic scoring guard who is still a good distributor. Last year he made 48% of threes on five attempts per game. You may also remember his 70 footer to beat Weber State, one of the best moments in college basketball last year.
McKinney, meanwhile, was one of the most improved players in the Big Sky last year. He greatly improved his scoring efficiency (53% twos, 33% threes, and 82% FT on plenty of attempts), while becoming one of the best assist men in the conference, surpassing even Garrity. Improbably, he was better than Garrity last season, and should be poised for a big senior year. Cody Demps is the nominal small forward, but has the versatility to play some different spots. He would be better served not taking so many threes (9/44 last year), but is a glue guy for them. Dreon Bartlett also returns in the backcourt as a three-point shooting specialist off the bench.
Up front, they will rely on Eric Stuteville, a big man that got better and better as the season went along. Toward the end of the year, he showed flashes as a diverse scorer in the post who holds his own on the glass. His potential is probably as one of the better bigs in the conference. Zach Mills is only 6'5'', but he did some nice things for them as a junior, and can play the four spot. He is a good outside shooter, and decent on the defensive glass. Senior Alex Tiffin will be in his second year, and there seems to be some optimism about him, though he didn't flash a ton as a junor. He shot just 43% last year. Nick Hornsby is one other returner that will contribute. He was a well regarded recruit coming into last year, though he got lost in the shuffle a bit as a freshman. In a bit under 15 minutes per game, he showcased nice versatility and skill on the glass, but struggled to score. He shot just 38% on twos and 4/18 from three. If he can find good shots and become a bit better putting the ball in the basket, he will be a nice all-around player for them.
Newcomers: One name to watch it Mason Stuteville (brother of Eric), who seems to be getting some pub as one of the best freshman in the league. He is a dynamic big man (though thin), who appears to have some inside-out capability. He will add another dynamic to the frontcourt which was a weak point for the squad last year. Another big man in the recruiting class is 6'10'' James Herrick, who averaged 11 and 11 last year, and is a bit more of a traditional big man as compared to Stuteville. They also have early signee Justin Strings, a 6'6'' forward who fits in the mold of shorter power forwards which have been so effective in the Big Sky. He averaged 18 and 8 last year and looks like he will be an impact player for them in time.
They also signed two guards. One is 5'10'' Jiday Ugbaja, a very good athlete who could be a great shooter for them. He may not have an impact right away because of the other depth, but he could be starting as soon as next season. He could be joined next year by Marcus Graves, who had the impressive stat line of 17.6 PPG/5.4 RPG/ 4.6 APG last year. Coach Katz compared his game to Garrity's, calling him a "shooter that can drive." Similar to Ugbaja, it's hard to say how many minutes will be available this year, but he should be an important long-term piece for them.
General Outlook: Sacramento State has never had a winning record at the DI level, but this looks like the year it will happen. In a league often dictated by guard play, they are in great hands with a senior backcourt of Garrity-McKinney. Though the frontcourt doesn't have the experience yet, they appear to have the talent with the Stuteville brothers and Zach Mills. After getting a taste of the Big Sky tournament last year, they are one of the favorites heading into this season. Don't be surprised if they not only have a winning record, but win the league, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Note: This post was updated to include the part about Nick Hornsby, who I forgot about on my first posting.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2014
How Did Sacramento State Turn Their Season Around?
So, how have they done it?
The first factor, and perhaps the biggest, has been the schedule. The early portion of their Big Sky slate was tough, with six of their first eight on the road, including road trips to Montana and to the UNC/UND swing. The fact that they were 2-6 during that time (they played two home games, beating EWU and losing to PSU in overtime) is not that big of a surprise, because that is a tough slate.
Things obviously got easier. Of the 7-1 stretch, they have played six home games (6-0) and two road games (1-1). They avenged their loss to Portland State (but lost at EWU, the reverse of what happened when they hosted the teams), and then won six at home. As noted, it wasn't an easy stretch of home games, as they beat arguably the top three teams in the conference not including themselves, but they did benefit from a long stretch at home.
The other difference has been simple - they have become an offensive machine during the past eight games. According to my calculations, here are the differences in games against DI opponents:
6-11 start (which was really 4-11, since two of those wins were against non-DI teams) - 0.991 PPP
7-1 recent stretch - 1.166 PPP
To put it in perspective... that 0.991 PPP would be 8th in the Big Sky for the year, while the 1.166 PPP would be far and away the best in the conference. Using conference play only, the 0.991 PPP would rank 10th in the Big Sky, while the 1.166 PPP would be a close second behind Northern Colorado. If they had a 1.166 PPP all year, that would rank in the top 20 in the nation.
The defense has gotten a little better too, going from 1.106 PPP before the steak, to 1.053 PPP since the streak started. In the Big Sky this year (which is scoring at 1.09 PPP for the year, second highest in the NCAA among any conference), that 1.05 mark is actually pretty good.
It's not hard to see their strengths - they have the best backcourt in the Big Sky, with both Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney putting up great junior seasons. Garrity has been fantastic throughout his career (he is a great shooter and solid distributor), so his stardom is no surprise. He has increased his three-point percentage to a deadly 46% rate, while shooting it more than he ever has. That has been huge for them, because every shot he takes is a good shot for them, for the most part.
McKinney has been more of a surprise... in his first season last year, he showed flashes of being a nice off the dribble with a outside shot that was at least good enough to keep defenses honest, along with a good ability to get to the line. This year, he has grown in many ways, and might be one of the more improved guys in the Big Sky. While his outside shot hasn't been falling (hi 3PT% is down from 37% to 31%), but he has become a better finisher, shooting 54% on two-point attempts, up from 41% last year (that is HUGE). He has maintained his excellent ability to get to the line (and shooting 85%). He has also grown to be more of a distributor... while Garrity's assist rate has dropped, that is due to McKinney taking on more playmaker duties, as his Assist Rate jumped from 20.2 to 29.2, another huge jump.
The frontcourt has always been a question mark, but that has picked up recently, as Zach Mills has played well, and Eric Stuteville is becoming the reliable option we thought he would be.
So, will the success continue? Yes and no. They travel to take on Weber State and a desperate Idaho State team this weekend, and 1-1 would be a success. Then they are at home to take on the Montana schools. The guess here is they finish 11-9, around the 5th seed in the Big Sky tournament.
Going forward, they have a chance to make some noise in the Big Sky tournament, because they have a great backcourt duo, and an emerging frontcourt. They are an offensive machine over the last month, and the defense has looked better too. They aren't getting a ton out of their seniors either, so it's not out of the question that they could be a favorite heading into the Big Sky next season, a thought that would have been inconceivable a month ago. It's been a rapid rise for the Hornets, and the best should be yet to come.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Sacramento State Impressive In Victory
Cal State Bakersfield is not going to the NCAA Tournament or anything like that, but they lost to UT-Arlington by 2 (UTA was a really solid team last year), and to California by 13 (even if the game wasn't really as close as that).
Simply put, it's a game past Sac State teams would have struggled with, and here, they led throughout, pulling away in the second half en route to the 18 point victory.
They were impressive offensively, shooting 49% and getting to the free throw line 36 times. Dylan Garrity was a star as always, with 21 points (a career high) and seven assists (a number he might average this year). He was very good leading the offense.
The guy I was especially impressed with was guard Mikh McKinney, who got the start for the Hornets. He looked very quick off the dribble, and seemed to be able to get in the lane almost anytime he wanted, where he also had some nice finishes. He had 23 points (7/13 FG, 7/7 FT), five rebounds, three assists, and three steals. He had some good buzz around him heading into the season, and he is making good on that.
In an early season where Big Sky teams have really struggled with Division I opponents, it was good to see Sacramento State take care of business on their home court.
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Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Where Will Sacramento State Get Bench Production?
In the backcourt, their best reserve could be Mikh McKinney, a junior college transfer (with three years of eligibility left). He is a combo guard capable of backing up Dylan Garrity and Jackson Carbajal. Last year, he averaged 14 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. I expect he should get the first chance at being a key performer off the bench.
There are three returning players in the backcourt - Jordan Estrada, Julian Demalleville, and Kendall Groom. Despite all the experience, all of them have been a bit underwhelming in their careers, and it seems like the newcomers will have all the chances they want to carve out a role. Cody Demps could be an interesting guy to watch, as he is extremely versatile at 6'4'', and Katz says he can play three spots. He could be a little raw, but he has the talent. Dreon Bartlett is also on the roster, but he seems like a prime redshirt candidate.
The frontcourt also has a lot of guys that could play, but not a lot of clarity, as three newcomers will likely be competing for most of the run. None of the three posted really impressive stat lines in junior college, but all bring different skill sets. Ryan Okwudibonye is the most traditional of the big men, and can play the three or four. He is not a strong offensive player, with just 4.6 points per game on 44% shooting, but could bring a defensive and rebounding presence.
Joey Quigley is a bit more skilled, and projects as more of a stretch four. He can handle the ball a bit more, and is a solid passer. Jordan Salley has good athleticism, but may struggle to produce consistently. He will be a backup at the four as well.
The Hornets need at least two or three of the newcomers to become consistent producers, and guys they can count on in the second unit. If they do, the Hornets will make the conference tournament. If they can't find that productivity, it could be another year watching the tournament from home.
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Friday, April 13, 2012
Sacramento State Signs Mikh McKinney
Within the last week there were a couple of signees for the Hornets, and now they have signed a third player. According to the Sacramento State website, Mikh McKinney of Okone College has signed with Sacramento State.
McKinney will be a sophomore with three years of eligibility remaining. He is a 6'1'' guard that should be able to back up Dylan Garrity, and could provide some outside shooting for Sac State.
Sacramento State probably has a couple of scholarships remaining, and I would expect them to go after some big men and add some more depth. Things continue to be shaping up very nicely for the Hornets in 2012-13.
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McKinney will be a sophomore with three years of eligibility remaining. He is a 6'1'' guard that should be able to back up Dylan Garrity, and could provide some outside shooting for Sac State.
A 6-foot-1, 165-pound guard from Union City, Calif., McKinney spent two years at Fremont’s Ohlone College, redshirting in 2010-11, and playing his freshman season in 2011-12. As a freshman, he was a first team all-state and first team all-Coast Conference selection after averaging 14.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.0 steals per game while shooting 53.0 percent (123-232) from the field, 40.9 percent (18-44) from the three-point line and 80.0 percent (100-125) from free throw line.This fills a big need for Sacramento State, because they didn't really have a true PG behind Garrity. McKinney is a guy that is capable of playing both guard spots, and they should benefit from his versatility.
Sacramento State probably has a couple of scholarships remaining, and I would expect them to go after some big men and add some more depth. Things continue to be shaping up very nicely for the Hornets in 2012-13.
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