Why Montana Will Beat Wisconsin

A semi-popular upset pick this year is Montana taking down Wisconsin. The Grizzlies come into the NCAA Tournament as hot as anyone, having won 14 straight games, the longest winning streak in the country. They won the conference tournament championship by 19 points against a really good team. They have been there before, having won the conference tournament two years ago.

Those are all great, but that's not why they're going to win. Here are five reasons.

1. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar - Maybe most of America doesn't know these two guys yet, but hopefully they will by the end of the first weekend. They are one of the most dynamic guard combos in the West, and they bring it on both ends. Cherry is the conference Defensive Player of the Year, and Jamar might be their most talented guy. Cherry averages 16 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, and 2.6 SPG. He is on pace to be the conference all-time leader in steals. Jamar averages 13.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 3.7 APG. He is the best passer on the team, and shoots 45% from downtown. They are superb players, and a cut above the Wisconsin backcourt (even with Jordan Taylor).

2. The altitude - One weakness of the Grizzlies is that they don't have a depth, but their bench actually plays a little more minutes than Wisconsin's has over the season. For teams without a ton of depth, fatigue obviously can be a factor. One thing that could add to fatigue is a high altitude. This is an advantage for Montana. Missoula sits at an altitute of 3,209 feet, compared to Madison's altitude of 1,058 feet. Montana has played at Northern Colorado (4,658 feet), Northern Arizona (7,000 feet), and Weber State (4,473 feet). I could be wrong, but I don't know that Wisconsin has played many or any games over 1,500 feet. Albuquerque stands at over 5,000 feet in most parts. The Badgers could be tugging at their shorts a bit.

3. The refs aren't from the Big Ten - This is not meant to be a crack at favorable officiating or anything like that. It means that Wisconsin is a very physical defensive team, and that style of play may sometimes go uncalled in the Big Ten. In the NCAA Tournament, the refs might call a little bit more than the Badgers are used to having things be called.

4. Jordan Taylor will struggle against Cherry - A lot of Wisconsin's offense is generated by Taylor. He handles the ball a lot, and typically initiates everything offensively for them. However, he is not great off the dribble at getting to the rim, and that is even without playing guys like Will Cherry, one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. When the offense bogs down for the Badgers, Taylor is not going to be able to make a ton happen against Cherry going to the rim. The dirty secret for Wisconsin is that Taylor has taken a step back in almost every category compared to last year.

5. Montana's weaknesses are not Wisconsin's strengths - Wisconsin is sound offensively because they simply don't turn the ball over. However, Montana's defense is not predicated on getting turnovers, but on not allowing the offense good looks. Montana is susceptible to teams that can pound the ball inside and get offensive rebounds, because their big men are not really traditional bigs. Fortunately, Wisconsin's aren't either, which helps the Grizzlies.

Other game links:
- Montana roster overview
- Wisconsin scouting report

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Breakdown of Wisconsin

With Montana set to take on Wisconsin on Thursday, let's take a look at the Badgers.

They are a very unique team, as they play the second slowest pace in the nation behind Western Illinois. They do this in part because they are one of the very best teams in the country at avoiding turnovers, but they also don't force a bunch either. They don't like to push the ball, and are content to let the shot clock wind down before taking a shot. This forces you to play their pace, and not the other way around.

Offensively, they are reliant on the three-point shot, where they get over 40% of their points (they shoot 36.1%). Almost everyone on the team is capable of hitting from the outside.

Defensively, though, is where the Badgers shine. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing 85.8 points per 100 possessions (fourth in the country - by comparison, Montana gives up 93.6 points per 100 possessions, 42nd in the country). Teams shoot just 28.9% from beyond the arc against the team, but more important they are excellent at not allowing teams to shoot many threes. In a college game that is sometimes dominated by the three-point shot, this is an important skill.

In terms of allowing twos, they are elite as well, as teams shoot just 41.3% inside the arc against them. This adds up to a 41.8 EFG% against, second best in the nation. They don't turn you over often, but you don't get good looks against Wisconsin and you don't get many opportunities for second chance points.

Like Montana, they are a team that relies heavily on their starters... their bench plays just 21% of minutes (compared to 22.4% for Montana), which is in the bottom 16 in the country. They have started the same five guys all season, so let's take a quick look at those guys:

- Jordan Taylor (SR) - Their star. He was seen as a potential All-American before the year, and even though he had a little bit of a down year compared to those standards, he was still excellent. He excels at taking care of the ball and making good decisions, as he has had a great turnover rate the past few years. One strange thing is that his shooting percentages have gone down this year. He shoots just 43% from twos, and 35.5% from downtown. His assist rates are also down a bit as well this year. That said, he is their senior leader and a guy that can hurt you.

- Josh Gasser (SO) - He is not a prolific offensive player, but he does a little bit of everything for the Badgers. He is efficient offensively, and makes 45% of his threes. He is a pretty good rebounder for a guard as well. Even when he is not scoring, he finds other ways to help the team.

- Ryan Evans (JR) - He is the rare Badger that doesn't shoot the ball well from the outside (7/32 this year), but he still does a lot of things for Wisconsin. He is the best rebounder on the team, and pulls down 6.8 boards per game. Even though he isn't a great outside shooter, he is the second leading scorer on the team after Jordan Taylor with over ten per game.

- Mike Bruesewitz (JR) - Like Evans, he hit a lot of outside shots (though he has taken 78 threes this year), but he can do a little bit of everything. He is the best offensive rebounder on the team, and second chance points are huge in close, low scoring games (like this one projects to be). He shoots just 38% from the field, so Montana is ok if he decides to take some shots from outside. If they want to play small, they will bring in Ben Brust, who plays over 30 minutes per game.

- Jared Berggren (JR) - He is the prototypical Bo Ryan big man, because he can stretch the floor well. He is 6'10'' but shoots 37% from downtown. He is also comfortable going down low, and this makes him probably their second best offensive player. Not super athletic but smart. He is a solid defender as well and is their best at protecting the rim, where he has a 6.0 block rate.

Anything I missed about the Badgers?

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Damian Lillard Is The Best PG In America

I know, that is a bold statement to make. He likely won't win any major awards or be an All-American this year, but that is not his fault, it is simply a matter of where he plays college basketball.

On the court, he has performed better than anyone else at the position in the country. I have chosen to compare him to the Bob Cousy Award finalists (of which he is one), because I figured that would be a good representative of the best PGs in the country (it leaves out guys like Tu Holloway and Myck Kabongo, but I feel pretty comfortable with that list based on everyone's play this year). Let's look at some of the data (all stats thru Monday):

You will have to click the link to see an enlarged photo of the stats. It should be easy to tell, but I have highlighted in green the leader on each statistic. Obviously I have cherry picked some stats, but I think they are pretty representative areas needs for good PG play. This is a rudimentary way of looking at things, but it gives us a base to work from.

Looking at the numbers, this is what I see about Damian Lillard's game:
- He is the best scoring PG in America - He leads the country in scoring, so obviously he is the leader among all PGs. In fact, nobody is really close. Isaiah Canaan of Murray State scores 18.9 PPG, but that is still more than six points per game off of Lillard's mark. Lillard has two forty point games this year, and has scored 30+ points seven different times this year. He lights up the scoreboard.
- He is the best rebounding PG among the top PGs - This is less important because a point guard's main function is not to rebound, but it goes to show that he has an excellent all-around game.
- He shoots free throws better than everyone else, and he gets to the line more than the rest - His FT percentage is great, and there are not many guys in the country that get to the line as much as he does (nearly eight times per game). If you are reading a blog about basketball, obviously I don't need to explain the importance of this.
- He is the most efficient offensive scorer among the group - This goes hand in hand with him being the best scoring PG, but I think the distinction is important to make that he puts up his numbers efficiently. I just talked about the FT shooting, but he shoots over 50% inside the arc and over 46% beyond the arc. Aaron Craft has a higher percentage of 2's made (on more limited attempts), and Pierre Jackson shoots a little better from downtown, but nobody combines those things with the propensity to get to the stripe and knock them down quite like he does.
- He takes great care of the ball - Jordan Taylor is a guy that has basically made a living on not turning the ball over, but Lillard's TO Rate is a little bit lower even than his so far this season. Lillard's TO Rate combined with his usage rate is quite simply exceptional.

I can understand the arguments to be made for others, and I would imagine that chief among them would be the fact that Lillard plays an easier schedule than most or all of the guys I have compared him to. I understand that in essence basketball can be a pirate game with everyone fighting for the highest numbers of the season.. If the numbers were close, I think that is a point that would tilt in someone else's favor.

But, the fact is that on a raw number's comparison, Lillard blows the rest of the guys away. His all-around game is something that no other PG in the country can match, and that is why if I had one PG to run my team this season, Damian Lillard would be that PG.

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