Eastern Washington a 13 Seed, Will Face Georgetown

After much speculation throughout the year that the Big Sky winner may be relegated to the play-in game, the conference got a little break from a seeding standpoint when Eastern Washington, who had the best non-conference resume of anyone in the conference, won the tournament and got the auto bid.

The projections I saw had them around a 15 seed, but they wind up getting a 13 seed, and they will take on the #4 seed Georgetown in the first round of the Big Dance.

Already, many people are calling them a potential upset, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they are one of the most picked upset teams in the tournament. For one, they have shown they can win big games, like when they beat Indiana and San Francisco on the road earlier this season. Two, a lot of people feel that Georgetown got over-seeded, as they finished the year 21-10, losing in the Big East tournament to Xavier. To that end, it's probably the best possible draw that EWU could have hoped for.

However, it's still going to be an uphill battle, as Georgetown is still a very good team and will be heavily favored. On KenPom's ratings, they are the 22nd best team in the country, and his system projects a 80-69 Georgetown win. We will talk a lot more about them as the week goes on, but it will be a battle.

The good news is that the Eagles have shown a lot of resiliency this year, and they'll have the ability to score a lot of points on the Hoyas. It will be a fun one.

The game is the last one on Thursday night, with a scheduled tip of 7:57 mountain time on TruTV, which is good news for those of us with day jobs! Check back here throughout the week for plenty more thoughts on the game.

Happy March Madness everybody!

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Weber State Battles, But Falls to Arizona

In the end, Weber State was not to be the first 16 seed to topple a one seed, but it wasn't for lack of trying. Wildcats of Weber State battled down to the final buzzer, losing to Arizona 68-59 to end the Big Sky season. We talked about how Arizona is possibly the best defensive team in the country - and that was shown in this game - but Weber State was not intimidated, and even managed to make things interesting down the stretch.

Weber State shot 30% from the floor, and still found a way to make Arizona sweat. They should be proud of their efforts.

Weber State got off to an early 7-0 run, but Arizona moved quickly to take back the lead, going on a 32-13 run the rest of the first half. For long stretches, Weber State was just not able to get enough buckets to stay in the game. However, they just kept attacking. Davion Berry was just 5/20 FG, but he made shots down the stretch, and stayed aggressive going to the hoop, finishing with 10 free throw attempts. It was a nice end to a great two year career in purple for him, as he was clearly not afraid of the big stage.

Another guy that showcased himself was big man Joel Bolomboy, who finished with 16 rebounds, seven of them offensive. As we have said really since he got to Weber State - his offensive game is not polished, but he is an NBA level rebounder and athlete in the frontcourt. Arizona coach Sean Miller said after the game he thought Bolomboy would be an NBA player, and it's hard to disagree.

It was an up and down year for the Big Sky, as evidenced by the 16 seed that Weber State received. However, the Wildcats represented themselves and the Big Sky well, playing a great team very tough, never backing down, and never letting up, even when the Arizona lead grew in the second half. It was a great learning experience for the young guys (Jeremy Senglin was the freshman of the year in the conference, but fellow freshman Richaud Gittens could be an all-conference player very soon), and a great showcase for the program, especially after they came up just short the last couple of seasons.

In the end, perhaps the highest praise came from Miller, who said this after the game:

"Weber is one of the best teams we've played all season," Miller said. "We've played some of the great teams in college basketball and I don't care what the name of their conference is or what they say on their shirt."

Great game, and an excellent season for a great program.

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What Can Weber State Do To Have a Chance?

Obviously, you know that a 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed. The odds are not just stacked against Weber State, they would have to make history to advance and beat Arizona. On paper, certainly, Arizona is the heavy favorite, but that's why they play the games. Here are some keys for the game that would help give Weber State a puncher's chance:

- Make outside shots - This is key for anyone trying to pull off a big upset - you have to be able to hit shots. Arizona is perhaps the best defensive team in the country - you are not going to break them down and get to the rim. Weber State is a very athletic team, but Arizona is even more athletic. Teams shoot 40.5% on twos against Arizona, second lowest rate in the country. To have a shot, Weber needs to make some threes, and they do have the shooters to be able to do that.

-  Force Arizona bigs into foul trouble - Without Brandon Ashley, Arizona is perhaps most susceptible if you can get their big men into foul trouble (especially Kaleb Tarczewski and Aaron Gordon). Weber is a good team at drawing fouls, especially Davion Berry. I know I said they need to make a lot of threes, but they could also benefit from Berry trying to get to the rim, and ideally forcing some fouls.

- Don't let Arizona get second chance shots - Weber State is not a team that forces turnovers, and that will not change today.But, they are a good defensive rebounding team, and that trait needs to hold today. Once they force a miss, they HAVE to get the defensive rebound - you can't give up free baskets to teams as good as Arizona. Joel Bolomboy is one of the best rebounders in the nation, and he'll have to show it today.

- Survive the first ten minutes - I know that Weber State is confident they can go in there and shock the world - you simply wouldn't be a competitor if you didn't believe that no matter the odds. But if Arizona gets off to a big start right away, some of that belief could fade a little bit. They have to start out strong, and be at least even or close to it after the first ten minutes. Build up a little momentum, and the crowd will be on your side, at least the neutral fans that are in the house.

That is the anatomy of a Weber State upset. Ken Pomeroy's odds give them a 4% chance to win the game. If they are going to shock the world, these four keys will likely be a big part of it.

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Montana's Season Ends With With Tournament Loss

Montana went 19-1 in the Big Sky this year, and won their second straight Big Sky regular season and tournament title. But the ending to their year is worse than any Montana player or fan's worst nightmare. We knew that, on paper, Syracuse was not a good matchup for Montana, with their length and athleticism. That said, I am not sure anyone was ready for the carnage that took place on Thursday night.

Syracuse got out to a fast start and never looked back, winning by a shocking final margin of 81-34. There are a lot of stats that could be used to point out how bad Montana's night was, but that will do no good. The Grizzlies got punched in the mouth at the beginning of the game, and they simply had no answer at either end of the court. They are obviously a lot better than they played against the Orange, but that is of little consolation to themselves or their fans. It was a bad night.

The bottom line is this - Montana had a great year. With the obstacles they overcame this year - from Marko Kovacevic losing eligibility before the year, to Will Cherry missing time, to Mathias Ward getting hurt - they had no business going 19-1, winning the Big Sky regular season and conference tournament. They simply didn't have the talent (again, with injuries and defections) or depth as they did last year, and that is combined with Weber State being an improved team. The fact that they accomplished what they did is a testament to guys like Will Cherry, Kareem Jamar, Wayne Tinkle, and the program that they have built.

One game does not define a season. Montana will look back on this game with some rough memories, but hopefully they don't let it take away what they accomplished this season.

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Some Stats for Montana/Syracuse Matchup

Bob Meseroll and The Missoulian has put together a nice little piece looking at some of the stats on Montana and Syracuse. Some of my favorite nuggets from the piece.

– The eye test tells you that Montana has tightened its defense the past couple weeks. And at least one stat confirms it. The Grizzlies have held their past four opponents to less than one point per possession, their longest such streak this season.

– OK, forget numbers. There’s the Vermontana factor. The last time Syracuse faced a 13 seed in the tournament, it lost to upstart Vermont. And you can’t spell Vermont or Montana without “mont.” Just a thought.

Hopefully the "Mont" factor is working again!

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5 Questions With a Syracuse Blogger

If you follow Syracuse basketball, then you know the blog Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician. It looks to me like the premier Syracuse blog out there, and fortunately the creator, Sean Keeley, was kind enough to answer a few of my questions about Syracuse. In turn, he has asked me some questions on Montana which will appear over there in the next couple days.

My questions are in bold, his answers in regular font.

1) Jim Boeheim is famous for his zone defense. Can you give us a quick rundown of what makes the Orange's zone so effective?
Like most things with Syracuse basketball, the zone is always only as effective as the athletes playing in it. Last year when Syracuse lost only three games all year, their zone defense was smothering from top to bottom. Quick guards up top neutralized transition, the wings took away the deep threat and the big in the middle changed the way other teams attacked the rim.

This year, the Orange haven't had all the tools most of the time. Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita aren't the imposing threat that Fab Melo was and Brandon Triche & Michael Carter-Williams aren't quite as steal-happy as Scoop Jardine and Dion Waiters were.

That said, this team is still talented enough to cause havoc and force opponents to beat them with the three-ball or to try and overpower them inside. If you can't do either, it's trouble.

2) 10 seconds left, tie game. Who on Syracuse is getting the ball?
Good question. Michael Carter-Williams is probably going to get the ball and from there, he's going to do one of three things. He's either going to iso his man and drive himself, or he's going to create an opportunity for C.J. Fair or James Southerland. Southerland is our big-shot threat but Fair is the most consistent shooter and clutch player we have. If you're asking me who I WANT with the ball, it's Fair.

3) Syracuse started the year 22-4 before finishing 4-5. Is there a reason for the drop off, or was it just the grind of the Big East?
I think you can blame a little bit of it on the grind of playing some really top-tier teams but this Syracuse team has a lot of flaws that got exposed at the same time. There just hasn't been much consistency from the frontcourt, especially on offense. The shooters are very streaky and oftentimes guys like Southerland and Triche go ice-cold at the same time. Finally, the team really seemed rudderless at times. Brandon Triche was expected to be a bit more like Scoop Jardine was last year, lead the team on and off the court, and that just hasn't been the case. I think the team lost its identity mid-way through the season and is only now starting to find it again.

4) As a fan of college basketball, I see the name Michael Carter-Williams all the time on my twitter feed, more than anyone else on Syracuse. Can you talk briefly about his game?
You know how Michael Carter-Williams is having a good game? When he has more assists than points. MC-Dubz, as we call him, is a supremely-talented guy full of potential, which is probably why he'll be a lottery pick this year. However, it's hard to tell that from the stat sheets. But when he's focused on feeding his wings, creating plays for his offense and playing within himself instead of forcing the issue, he makes the Syracuse offense unstoppable. It's when he gets it in his head that we need him to score 15 points that he gets himself, and the Orange, into trouble.

5) If Syracuse makes a deep run in the Tournament, it will be because of _________?
Michael Carter-Williams took over, James Southerland continued to shoot lights out and Baye Moussa Keita/Rakeem Christmas kept their heads above water.

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ESPN Doesn't Like a Montana Upset

If you have read a lot about the NCAA Tournament over the past few years, you have probably read something from Peter Keating. He writes for ESPN leading up to the tourney, and has a series on Giant Killers, and teams chances for an upset. He does not like Montana's odds.

No. 4 Syracuse Orange (92.1) No. 13 Montana Grizzlies (4.6)

Upset chance: 4.6 percent

What's this? Montana has already become something of a trendy upset pick? How many ways do you want us to take apart that silly idea? First, while Syracuse isn't quite as strong as the squad that earned a No. 1 seed last season, it's built according to the same basic blueprint. Offensively, the Orange are highly efficient, scoring 114.2 points per 100 possessions, because they're monsters on the offensive glass (ORs on 39.8 percent of missed shots, fifth-most in the NCAA) and their 2-point shooting and turnover rate rank in the top third of the country.

On defense, Syracuse doesn't collect many rebounds, but who cares? The 2-3 zone has enabled the Orange to rank 10th in the country in steals (13.5 percent of opponent possessions) and 24th in turnovers (23.4 percent). They don't rely on free throws, and they've played Killer-like nonconference opponents for target practice. They're not only a very good team, they're a Giant wearing a bulletproof vest.

As for Montana, if you don't even attempt to grab offensive rebounds (25.1 OR percentage, 335th in the NCAA), you had better be trying to cook up some other recipe for adding possessions to your column, but the Grizzlies also force very few turnovers (18.5 TO percentage, ranking 253rd). Maybe you don't need extra possessions when you're playing the 283rd-strongest schedule in the country -- quick, where is Minot State? What about Carroll College? -- but trust us, a few more balls in hand would be handy in the NCAA tournament.

We will stipulate that Kareem Jamar is an exciting player who can post up or shoot from behind the arc, and that the Grizzlies have no fewer than four players shooting 40 percent or better on 3-pointers (in 55 to 93 attempts apiece). But come on. Syracuse outscored opponents by nearly 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference in the country. Montana outscored opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions while playing in the 27th-strongest conference in the country. (Read those last two sentences again.) They're not just a Killer lacking a second shot, they're a mediocre team.

P.S.: Including "secret sauce" points gained or lost for playing like past Killers and Giants, the average gap in overall strength between 4-seeds and 13-seeds is 19.8 points per 100 possessions this year, according to our spreadsheets. That's actually higher than the average for 2-15, 3-14, 12-5 and 11-6 matchups. Which means that even though a few 13-seeds have popped through in recent years, 2013 is precisely the wrong spring to be hunting for upsets on the 4-13 line.

Hopefully they can prove him wrong!

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Syracuse Scouting Report

After taking a quick look at Syracuse yesterday, let's dig in a little bit further.

The first thing it seemed that you notice about them is their length. Here is the height of their starters - 6'4'', 6'6'', 6'8'', 6'8'', 6'9''. They primarily run a zone defense, so this length comes in handy. The stereotype is that against a zone, you are going to shoot a lot of threes, and that is true against Syracuse. Typically, almost 40% of opponent's shot attempts are three-pointers, one of the highest rates in the country. However, that has not exactly been a successful strategy against the Orange. Opponents have shot just 29.8% from downtown against Cuse, the 19th lowest rate in the country.

If you go inside, you're not likely to have more success. Syracuse has the highest block rate in the country, led by guys like Rakeem Christmas (11.1%), reserve Baye Keita (8.2%), CJ Fair (3.7%), and James Southerland (3.7%). Cuse is also very good at forcing turnovers, as they have a top 25 rate in that department. If they have been susceptible anywhere, it is allowing offensive rebounds, as their opponents have a 34.4% offensive rebound percentage. Unfortunately, this is not the strong point for Montana, one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country.

All of these things combine to make Syracuse the 23rd best defense in the country, according to KenPom's numbers.

The bad news for Montana is that as good as Syracuse's defense has been, their offense has statistically been even better, as they are 16th in the country. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, with their 39.8% rate ranking fifth in the country. It will be important to always get a body on Christmas and Keita.

Elsewhere offensively, they can hurt you in different ways. Forward James Southerland made headlines with his three-point shooting during the Big East Tournament, and he shot 41% from downtown this year (and 53.1% inside the arc). CJ Fair might be even better. He can hit the three (27/55 this year), but it also an aggressive offensive player that can get to the line often. He is their leading scorer and rebounder at 14.1 PPG and 7.1 RPG.

Their guards are adept at getting to the line (between them, Michael Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche get to the line a combined nine times per game), and it so it will be important to stay in front of them and force jumpers. MCW shot just 28.2% from behind the arc this year, while Triche was at 28.5%.

Carter-Williams is one of the best passers in the country. He had an assist rate of 41.7, and tallied a third-in-the-NCAA 7.7 assists per game. He is a willing and creative passer, but he will turn it over too. His TO rate is 24.3 (Triche is 20.5), meaning there could be an opportunity for Montana to create some turnovers.

By average height, Syracuse is the second tallest team in the country, which will pose problems for Montana and their lack of frontcourt depth. Later this week, we will look at some of things Montana needs to do to combat the size of Syracuse.

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Montana vs Syracuse Logistics

Much thanks to the Syracuse blog Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician for compiling a lot of this info. We will try to ask him some Syracuse questions later this week to get a better feel for The Orange.

The tip-off time for the Syracuse Orange's second-round NCAA Tournament contest against the Montana Grizzlies has been announced, and the No. 3-seeded Orange will play the No. 13 Grizzlies at approximately 10 p.m. ET in San Jose, Calif. on TruTV.

If you are scoring at home, that makes it an approximately 10pm local start time for Syracuse, and 8pm for Montana. Throw in the fact that San Jose is a lot closer to Missoula than Syracuse, and it could be an advantage for Montana.

The announcers for the game will be Brian Anderson and Dan Bonner.

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Montana Projected as 16 Seed

Obviously very early for this, and it's all mere speculation at this point... but still fun to note that Joe Lunardi has Montana winning the Big Sky next season and nabbing a 16 seed.

Hopefully the Big Sky winner will be able to get higher than a 15.

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Wisconsin Tops Montana in NCAA Tournament

The difference between the Big Sky and Big Ten was never more evident than it was on Thursday. Montana came into the game playing about as well as you could play, having won 14 straight games and winning the Big Sky, but they ran into a Badgers buzzsaw in the first round.

Montana kept things interesting early, but Wisconsin began to pull away late in the first half, and continued after Montana came out a bit listless after the break. By the time things were over, Wisconsin was the winner, 73-49. They were simply the far superior team on this day, and showed it in every aspect of the game.

The thought was that Montana could make things very interesting if they could hold the Badgers in check from the outside, where they get a lot of their offense. However, that didn't happen, as Wisconsin made six of their first nine threes, and finished 10-19 from the field. Simply put, with their defense, they are tough for anyone to beat when they shoot the ball that well.

As mentioned, defensively Wisconsin was outstanding, using their signature man-to-man to shut down the Grizzlies. Montana made just 38% of their shots, and were just 3/9 from downtown. That they only got nine three-point attempts despite trailing most of the game is a testament to the Badgers, who excel in not allowing their opponents to get a lot of good looks from the outside.

In his final collegiate game, Art Steward was their star, with 18 points, as he kept them in it early. Their other senior starter, Derek Selvig also played well in the first half, keeping the Grizzlies within shooting distance. But it was Montana's offensive stars that never got going. Will Cherry was just 3/14, and picking up his second foul in the first half was killer. Kareem Jamar was 3/8 for six points, and Mathias Ward was 1/5 for five points. For a team without much depth, they couldn't have their stars struggle, but that is what happened.

The season ends in disappointment for Montana, but it was still a successful year. They won the outright conference championship for the first time in a long time, and showed by the end of the year that they were the class of the conference. They will finish with a record of 25-7, and have the pieces in place to be even better next year. They simply ran into a better team today.

But we will be hearing much more about Montana in the future.

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A Few Bracket Predictions

Just a few thoughts and predictions for the NCAA Tournament.

First, as I wrote about yesterday, I really do believe Montana can and beat Wisconsin. It will be a defensive grinder, slow-paced, and will be very dependent on which team can hit a few shots. I think Jamar will hit his share, and I like Montana to win 58-55.

Other predictions:
- Final Four of Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State, and North Carolina, with Kentucky topping Ohio State for the title.
- I like Michigan State to be the first 1 seed to lose, falling to Memphis in Round 3. I am taking the Tigers to the Elite Eight.I have Syracuse losing to Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16, UNC losing to Ohio State in the Final Four, and then Kentucky winning it all.
- 10 seeds or higher I am picking to win in round 1 - Xavier, Montana, Texas, West Virginia, South Florida, NC State, Belmont, and Purdue. Of those teams, I have South Florida and Belmont going to the Sweet 16.

What does your bracket look like?

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Montana is a 13 Seed

Obviously will have much more to say as the week goes on, but for now, Montana will be a 13 seed, playing Wisconsin in Albuquerque.

There was a lot of thought that they might get a 14 seed and take on Baylor, but they got pushed up a line, possibly with help from St. Bonaventure, who was a surprise team making the field. The Badgers are not a great matchup for Montana, but much better than Baylor would have been.

They will play on Thursday, and it doesn't seem like many people are really giving Montana even a second thought at being able to get an upset. This should be fun.

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Big Sky Should be Rooting for Louisiana Tech Tonight

Currently in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, Montana is sitting at a 14. With a bit of help, maybe they could make it to a 13.

Louisiana Tech out of the WAC is one team Montana should be rooting for today. They took out Nevada yesterday (who would have been seeded higher than Montana), and now take on New Mexico State today. I suspect NM State would get ranked higher than Montana (it would at least be close), but La Tech would not. Thus, if the Bulldogs pull another upset, it would push Montana up a bit. Maybe not up to a higher seed, but then again, maybe.

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Where Will Montana Get Seeded?

It seems a lot of Montana fans are hoping for a seed similar to 2006, when the Grizzlies were the number 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely. Here is how some draft pundits are projecting them:

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has them as a 15 playing Missouri.
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has them as a 14 playing Baylor.
Andy Bottoms of Fox Sports has them as a 15 playing Duke.

Factors helping Montana:
- They beat Long Beach State and Weber State (twice) – Long Beach State likely needs to win their conference tournament to make the Big Dance, but nobody disputes that they are a quality team. Montana beat them 73-71 in Dahlberg Arena. Weber State is another team that obviously is not going to make the NCAA Tournament, but they are a team with a decent RPI, and beating them twice will be a nice plus on their resume.
- They enter the tournament on a hot streak – As much as this matters (which is hard to say), you can’t be sitting much better than Montana is right now. They have won 14 straight games, 20 of 21, and won the conference championship by 19 points over the second best team. They will enter the tournament playing great, great basketball.

Factors hurting Montana:
- The weakness of the Big Sky – Other than the Grizzlies and Weber State, it was a weak year for the Big Sky. They finished 25 out of 33 conferences in RPI, and 27th among conference according to Ken Pomeroy. There was a dearth of quality non-conference wins outside of the conference, and they didn’t help themselves during Bracket Busters either (where the conference went 3-6). It was not a banner year for the Big Sky.
- They lost to North Dakota – All of their other losses are defensible, but this one will be hard to swallow. UND was supposed to take a step forward and be a really quality team this year, but that didn’t really happen. That’s the one really bad loss on their resume.
- They lack quality road wins – They were right in the game against Colorado State to start the year, but fell short. They got pounded by Oregon State on the road. Their best road win is probably Portland State, and while they are a solid team, that is not going to impress the committee. They would feel better if they got at least one quality non-conference road win, or even another quality home win (they lost to Nevada and San Francisco).

It looks like the most likely seed right now is a 15, but if they get some help, 14 is certainly reasonable. They will be a dangerous team for a 2/3 seed to have to take on.

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