So far this year, we have taken plenty of looks at Eastern Washington and what has made them the favorite, and we have also looked extensively at the middle tier of teams, but today let's took at the four who are presumed to be at the bottom right now.
- Idaho State sits at 3-8, after looking good in a neutral court OT loss to South Dakota State, a road loss to Utah State, and a neutral court loss to Cal State Bakersfield. So far this year they are tenth in the conference in offensive efficiency, but fourth defensively.
Their struggles on offense start with the fact that other than Chris Hansen, they don't have many guys shooting well from the outside. Against DI opponents, they have shot 26% from downtown, which ranks in the bottom 15 nationally. Hansen himself has struggle,d shooting just 29% after hitting 40% of his threes last year. That could be just a random fluke, but it could also be due to the fact that ISU doesn't really have a PG, which allows defense to key in on Hansen.
Jeff Solarin has been excellent again, and Nnamdi Ezenwa has given them good minutes, but they need to find someone other than Hansen that will draw the attention of defenses if they want to compete for a conference tournament spot.
- Montana State also sits at 3-8, and there have been some offensive bright spots in Brian Fish's first season. Junior guard Marcus Colbert has struggled with his shooting, but he is in the top 15 nationally in assist rate while also getting to the line. He is a keeper. Danny Robison has been very solid as well up front, showing a nice outside shot which wasn't there in the past. He is one of the most improved guys in the Big Sky.
To compete for a tournament spot, though, MSU needs to improve on the other end of the floor, where they are ninth in the Big Sky defensively. They haven't been able to force turnovers, but they are sending opponents to the foul line too much, so the aggression is not really paying off. DI teams have an effective FG% of 52.8% against them, which is not a good mark when you're not forcing turnovers. They have had good games on that end, but too many have been like their loss Saturday to Portland, where the Pilots made 23/40 twos and 10/20 threes, while turning it over just 10 times.
The Bobcats are probably a year away from contending for a conference tournament spot, but there are at least some good, positive things happening on the offensive side of the ball.
- North Dakota is 4-6, but two of the wins are against non-DI opponents. One of the best positives has been the play of senior guard Lenny Antwi. He didn't look like much of a Big Sky player his first three years, but he has been shooting the ball very well this year, hitting 12/26 threes. Elsewhere, they have a lot of guys in shooting slumps from the outside.
Estan Tyler made 43% of his triples as a sophomore at UMKC - he is 6/21 this year. Terrel de Rouen made 36% as a freshman at New Mexico State - he is 6/21 this year. Jaron Nash made 34% last year - he is 4/15 this year. Josiah Coleman came in as a guy that looked like he could do some things offensively - he is 3/18 from downtown and an abominable 10/41 FG overall. Some of these things should normalize and give UND a much better offense than they have shown so far.
Defensively, they still can't stop anyone in the paint. DI teams are shooting over 58% on two-point attempts against UND this year, a rank that is near the bottom of the NCAA. They don't really have a rim protector, and their perimeter defenders can't keep teams out of the lane. More than anything else, this will hold them back as we enter Big Sky play.
- Southern Utah is still at two wins, but as we've mentioned there are signs of life from their offense. AJ Hess continues to play great basketball, shooting the ball well while not turning it over. He has become more of a primary option which they desperately needed. SUU is shooting 40% from the outside against DI teams, a great mark and a huge sign that they will win some Big Sky games this year.
Defensively, however, they are a mess. Teams have been killing them from three, though that will hopefully normalize a bit. SUU hasn't forced turnovers, and as has been an issue for them the last few years, they send teams to the foul line way, way too much. They just can't seem to defend without fouling, and this is year three of what must be considered a trend.
Another issue is that Trey Kennedy, a guy that did some nice things as a true freshman playing a too-big role, has regressed this year. His turnovers are up, assists are done, and he doesn't seem to be getting any easy baskets. The Thunderbirds need these young guys to develop, and his sophomore season has not been promising so far.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Showing posts with label Trey Kennedy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trey Kennedy. Show all posts
Monday, December 22, 2014
Friday, October 31, 2014
Southern Utah Outlook
It's time to get ready for the Big Sky season again with some overviews of each team this month, and then eventually we'll get into more detailed looks at everything.
What They Lost: It was a rough year last season for the Thunderbirds, as they waited until right before the end of the year to finally get their first DI win. One of the reasons for the struggles was how young the team was, playing lots of underclassmen. As such, the losses were limited.
The biggest is Jaren Jeffery, a big man who played about 45% of the team's minutes. He shot 52% inside the arc, and was a good rebounder as well. He could provide a little bit of rim protection also, with a nice block rate. Also gone is Jayson Cheesman, who was better as a junior than he was as a senior. He was always a negative offensively (despite being 6'11'', he shot 31% last season. Thirty one percent.), but at his best he was a good rebounder and shot blocker. Also gone is guard Chris Nsenki, but that may be addition by subtraction, and allow for more minutes to younger, more talented guys.
Who Returns: As you probably gathered, almost everyone is back, and they do have some nice building blocks. As a junior in his third year in the program, AJ Hess is an old hand in the program, and he is a nice player. At times he is a three-point shooting specialist, but he shoots 38% from deep which makes him a good option. He is a solid rebounder from the three spot, and takes care of the ball. A key will be whether he can become more of a number one option.
The backcourt got a lot of experience last year, and a guy I really like is PG John Marshall. As a true freshman, he posted a nice assist rate, and his TO rate was reasonable. He is not an outside shooter (two three-point attempts all year), but he showed an ability to get to the rim, and draw some fouls. If he can find a way to be a more efficient scorer, he will be a good floor leader. Trey Kennedy also got a lot of time, and at times was their top offensive option. Though his percentages don't look great, he was asked to do a lot last season, and showed the talent to create his own shot and get to the foul line. He probably has the highest ceiling of anyone in the program.
Juwan Major also got a lot of time as a freshman, but he struggled, shooting just 40% and turning the ball over at an alarmingly high rate. They thought highly of him, but he needs to show improvement to be considered a Big Sky caliber player. One other returner of note in the backcourt is Race Parsons, who could be a shooting specialist at the off guard spot.
Up front, my favorite guy is Casey Oliverson, who had a very nice debut season as a sophomore. He was an efficient scorer inside (though struggled at the foul line), and showed himself to be an above average rebounder on both ends. He is another building block. Cal Hanks and Eric Rippetoe will both be seniors. Hanks is in the Jayson Cheesman mold in that he can help you as long as he doesn't shoot too much, and focuses on rebounds and rim protection. Rippetoe is a capable outside shooter, though he did not bring much else.
Newcomers: One guy that should help a thin frontcourt is juco transfer Christian Thompson, who averaged 16 points and 6.5 rebounds last year. He is a 6'7'' combo forward that should get a lot of minutes for them, and looks like he should be able to contribute. Other possible frontcourt contributors are Sherron Wilson (6'6'' forward from Las Vegas who averaged 13 and 4 last year and got some interest from Air Force and Tulsa), Kyler Nielson (6'6'' forward from Cedar City), and Tyler Rawson (6'9'', athletic forward from American Fork who should be an above average starter at the four in time).
In the backcourt, Travon Langston enters as a junior college transfer, and should provide some more veteran stability with a lot of the minutes going to sophomores like Kennedy, Marshall, Major, and Parsons. I would expect him to have a role. Austin Waddoups is another guy from American Fork, who has returned to SUU after his Mormon mission. He projects as a solid shooter off the ball at 6'2'', as he made 42% of his threes in his senior year of high school.
General Outlook: SUU will still struggle this year - even though they are more experienced, they are still very young, with two seniors on the roster (who are role players). They took their lumps last year in playing a lot of freshman and sophomores, and there will be some lumps again this year. But the lumps will be less, and I think Nick Robinson is building the foundation for a nice program. They may again finish last in the Big Sky, but they will win a few games this year, and be in a few others that people don't expect, because they are always feisty under Robinson. It is fun to watch the program build.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
What They Lost: It was a rough year last season for the Thunderbirds, as they waited until right before the end of the year to finally get their first DI win. One of the reasons for the struggles was how young the team was, playing lots of underclassmen. As such, the losses were limited.
The biggest is Jaren Jeffery, a big man who played about 45% of the team's minutes. He shot 52% inside the arc, and was a good rebounder as well. He could provide a little bit of rim protection also, with a nice block rate. Also gone is Jayson Cheesman, who was better as a junior than he was as a senior. He was always a negative offensively (despite being 6'11'', he shot 31% last season. Thirty one percent.), but at his best he was a good rebounder and shot blocker. Also gone is guard Chris Nsenki, but that may be addition by subtraction, and allow for more minutes to younger, more talented guys.
Who Returns: As you probably gathered, almost everyone is back, and they do have some nice building blocks. As a junior in his third year in the program, AJ Hess is an old hand in the program, and he is a nice player. At times he is a three-point shooting specialist, but he shoots 38% from deep which makes him a good option. He is a solid rebounder from the three spot, and takes care of the ball. A key will be whether he can become more of a number one option.
The backcourt got a lot of experience last year, and a guy I really like is PG John Marshall. As a true freshman, he posted a nice assist rate, and his TO rate was reasonable. He is not an outside shooter (two three-point attempts all year), but he showed an ability to get to the rim, and draw some fouls. If he can find a way to be a more efficient scorer, he will be a good floor leader. Trey Kennedy also got a lot of time, and at times was their top offensive option. Though his percentages don't look great, he was asked to do a lot last season, and showed the talent to create his own shot and get to the foul line. He probably has the highest ceiling of anyone in the program.
Juwan Major also got a lot of time as a freshman, but he struggled, shooting just 40% and turning the ball over at an alarmingly high rate. They thought highly of him, but he needs to show improvement to be considered a Big Sky caliber player. One other returner of note in the backcourt is Race Parsons, who could be a shooting specialist at the off guard spot.
Up front, my favorite guy is Casey Oliverson, who had a very nice debut season as a sophomore. He was an efficient scorer inside (though struggled at the foul line), and showed himself to be an above average rebounder on both ends. He is another building block. Cal Hanks and Eric Rippetoe will both be seniors. Hanks is in the Jayson Cheesman mold in that he can help you as long as he doesn't shoot too much, and focuses on rebounds and rim protection. Rippetoe is a capable outside shooter, though he did not bring much else.
Newcomers: One guy that should help a thin frontcourt is juco transfer Christian Thompson, who averaged 16 points and 6.5 rebounds last year. He is a 6'7'' combo forward that should get a lot of minutes for them, and looks like he should be able to contribute. Other possible frontcourt contributors are Sherron Wilson (6'6'' forward from Las Vegas who averaged 13 and 4 last year and got some interest from Air Force and Tulsa), Kyler Nielson (6'6'' forward from Cedar City), and Tyler Rawson (6'9'', athletic forward from American Fork who should be an above average starter at the four in time).
In the backcourt, Travon Langston enters as a junior college transfer, and should provide some more veteran stability with a lot of the minutes going to sophomores like Kennedy, Marshall, Major, and Parsons. I would expect him to have a role. Austin Waddoups is another guy from American Fork, who has returned to SUU after his Mormon mission. He projects as a solid shooter off the ball at 6'2'', as he made 42% of his threes in his senior year of high school.
General Outlook: SUU will still struggle this year - even though they are more experienced, they are still very young, with two seniors on the roster (who are role players). They took their lumps last year in playing a lot of freshman and sophomores, and there will be some lumps again this year. But the lumps will be less, and I think Nick Robinson is building the foundation for a nice program. They may again finish last in the Big Sky, but they will win a few games this year, and be in a few others that people don't expect, because they are always feisty under Robinson. It is fun to watch the program build.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Helping Fix Southern Utah's Offense
As things currently stand, Southern Utah is the worst offensive team in the country, and possibly the worst team in the country.
Here are some stats against Division I opponents:
- The Thunderbirds are scored 0.84 points per possession, last in the NCAA. The second lowest mark is New Hampshire at 0.87 PPP.
- SUU is shooting 36.1% on two-point FG attempts, again last in the country. The second lowest mark is Howard, at 38.1%. The lowest mark last season was Grambling State, at 38.4%.
- They have a 22.9 TO Rate, which is 339th (out of 351) in the NCAA.
- They rebound 24.6% of their misses, which is 332nd in the nation.
- They are not very good at getting to the line, as their FTA/FGA percentage is 33.8%, 309th in the NCAA. They have shot free throws well when they have gotten to the line.
Basically, they haven't done anything well offensively this year. Their defense hasn't been much better (allowing 1.17 PPP, 345th in the country), but Rome wasn't built in a day. I thought it might be fun to look at some personnel things that could be done to potentially help the offense.
- Give Casey Oliverson all the minutes he can handle - They may be doing this already, as he has played the third most minutes on the team. He has been their best offensive player, efficiency wise, this year. He's only shot 45% on the season, but he is an excellent offensive rebounder, which is good, because there are a lot of chances to grab them. The more minutes he can play, the better.
- Tell AJ Hess to start shooting more - The sophomore guard shoots four threes a game and makes 37% of them. In this offense, he should probably be shooting from the outside even more. He has been horrific inside the arc (6/28, or 21%), but he was a 46% shooter from there last year, so I think that's a sample size issue). If I were Nick Robinson, everything would go through him.
- Give all of Chris Nsenki's minutes to other guards - Nsenki's minutes to seem to be decreasing, as he has averaged 11 minutes per game in Big Sky play. For the year, he's played 37% of the team's minutes, but he is a minus offensively. After shooting 31% from downtown last year, that's down to 3/19 this year. He's made 32% of twos, but he wasn't great in that category last year (7/17). He doesn't get to the line either. John Marshall has not been a scorer this year, but has flashed some talent as a distributor (34.7 Assist Rate).
- Juwan Major might not be ready for big minutes either - The freshman is talented and I know they like him, but he has struggled badly offensively. He is shooting about 38%, and has a 10.7 Assist Rate vs a 34.6 TO Rate.
- Look to push for easy baskets - SUU plays at a slow pace, and their average possession length of 20.2 seconds is 337th in the country. While this might be somewhat driven by personnel, with all of their young guards, they should look to push the pace as much as they can to see if any easy baskets can come.
- Have Trey Kennedy and John Marshall attack the rim relentlessly - Both of these freshman have shown an ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line. Kennedy draws 4.9 fouls per 40 minutes, while Marshall draws 4.4 fouls per 40. Both are good foul shooters, so the more times they attack the rim and get to the line, the more good things will happen.
Here would be my starting lineup, with notes in parenthesis:
PG John Marshall (Potentially good distributor)
SG Trey Kennedy (Maybe their most talented guy. He is going to be a good Big Sky player)
SF AJ Hess (The team's best outside shooter and all-around scorer)
PF Casey Oliverson (13.2 OR%... crash the glass!)
C Jayson Cheesman (But tell him that if he shoots anything other than a dunk or layup, he's out of the game! He shoots a poor percentage, but he is solid defensively, and showed some ability as an offensive rebounder last year)
Thoughts?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Here are some stats against Division I opponents:
- The Thunderbirds are scored 0.84 points per possession, last in the NCAA. The second lowest mark is New Hampshire at 0.87 PPP.
- SUU is shooting 36.1% on two-point FG attempts, again last in the country. The second lowest mark is Howard, at 38.1%. The lowest mark last season was Grambling State, at 38.4%.
- They have a 22.9 TO Rate, which is 339th (out of 351) in the NCAA.
- They rebound 24.6% of their misses, which is 332nd in the nation.
- They are not very good at getting to the line, as their FTA/FGA percentage is 33.8%, 309th in the NCAA. They have shot free throws well when they have gotten to the line.
Basically, they haven't done anything well offensively this year. Their defense hasn't been much better (allowing 1.17 PPP, 345th in the country), but Rome wasn't built in a day. I thought it might be fun to look at some personnel things that could be done to potentially help the offense.
- Give Casey Oliverson all the minutes he can handle - They may be doing this already, as he has played the third most minutes on the team. He has been their best offensive player, efficiency wise, this year. He's only shot 45% on the season, but he is an excellent offensive rebounder, which is good, because there are a lot of chances to grab them. The more minutes he can play, the better.
- Tell AJ Hess to start shooting more - The sophomore guard shoots four threes a game and makes 37% of them. In this offense, he should probably be shooting from the outside even more. He has been horrific inside the arc (6/28, or 21%), but he was a 46% shooter from there last year, so I think that's a sample size issue). If I were Nick Robinson, everything would go through him.
- Give all of Chris Nsenki's minutes to other guards - Nsenki's minutes to seem to be decreasing, as he has averaged 11 minutes per game in Big Sky play. For the year, he's played 37% of the team's minutes, but he is a minus offensively. After shooting 31% from downtown last year, that's down to 3/19 this year. He's made 32% of twos, but he wasn't great in that category last year (7/17). He doesn't get to the line either. John Marshall has not been a scorer this year, but has flashed some talent as a distributor (34.7 Assist Rate).
- Juwan Major might not be ready for big minutes either - The freshman is talented and I know they like him, but he has struggled badly offensively. He is shooting about 38%, and has a 10.7 Assist Rate vs a 34.6 TO Rate.
- Look to push for easy baskets - SUU plays at a slow pace, and their average possession length of 20.2 seconds is 337th in the country. While this might be somewhat driven by personnel, with all of their young guards, they should look to push the pace as much as they can to see if any easy baskets can come.
- Have Trey Kennedy and John Marshall attack the rim relentlessly - Both of these freshman have shown an ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line. Kennedy draws 4.9 fouls per 40 minutes, while Marshall draws 4.4 fouls per 40. Both are good foul shooters, so the more times they attack the rim and get to the line, the more good things will happen.
Here would be my starting lineup, with notes in parenthesis:
PG John Marshall (Potentially good distributor)
SG Trey Kennedy (Maybe their most talented guy. He is going to be a good Big Sky player)
SF AJ Hess (The team's best outside shooter and all-around scorer)
PF Casey Oliverson (13.2 OR%... crash the glass!)
C Jayson Cheesman (But tell him that if he shoots anything other than a dunk or layup, he's out of the game! He shoots a poor percentage, but he is solid defensively, and showed some ability as an offensive rebounder last year)
Thoughts?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Where Will Southern Utah's Scoring Come From?
Last season during conference games, Southern Utah was ninth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency, scoring 0.99 points per possession. Among the culprits - they shot a league low 42.7% on two point shot attempts, and had a 20.0 TO Rate, worst in the conference. Essentially, they could grab offensive rebounds, but arguably because they had so much experience at trying to rebound missed shots!
To make bad news worse for head coach Nick Robinson, gone are the Thunderbirds top four scorers, most notably Jackson Stevenett (17.6 PPG) and Damon Heuir (15.5 PPG).
Obviously, this is all leading up to the big question - where does Southern Utah get their scoring from? Here are a few of the most likely ones to provide the scoring punch:
- AJ Hess - The 6'6'' wing man got better as his freshman year went along, finishing with an average of 5.8 PPG, but scoring 24 points against Eastern Washington, 15 points against Montana, and 16 points against North Dakota, all within the final seven games of the year. Clearly, he got more comfortable as the year went along, and took on the role of third fiddle in the offense after Wade Collie was dismissed. He has a solid outside shot (33%), and is great from the line. The development of Hess is probably the TBirds best bet to have a true number one option this season.
- Chris Nsenki - Nsenki only averaged 2.3 PPG last season, but there weren't always a ton of minutes to be had behind Heuir. He scored eight points in 31 minutes in the Big Sky tournament loss to UND, so he could have a bigger role waiting for him. He shot 30.5% from downtown on 59 attempts last season.
- Jayson Cheesman - He is known primarily for his defense and rebounding (where he is one of the best in the conference), but he is the team's leading returning scorer, at 6.8 PPG. He wasn't efficient at all, shooting just 40%, but got buckets with his offensive rebounding ability. He needs to be more selective this season. He doesn't really have much in the way of post moves, but that is not his game.
- Juwan Major - He comes in from Las Vegas High, where he led that team with over 14 PPG. He is a lefty with a good first step and the ability to score off the dribble. With the TBirds looking for a spark, Major could provide one as a freshman, as his ceiling is arguably higher than almost everyone else on the roster.
- Trey Kennedy - He is a guy that I really like. While scoring isn't even necessarily his calling card (last year, he averaged 12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.7 APG for Bishop Gorman), he has a lot of ability and versatility. He has experience playing a variety of roles (as a junior he came off the bench, as all of the starters were top 150 recruits), and has shown an ability to help his team in whatever way needed. Scoring will be needed this season, and Kennedy could provide it.
- Race Parsons - Another freshman, Parsons averaged over 27 PPG for his high school while getting some interest from Weber State and Utah State. He is a 6'4'' guard with a knack for scoring. In Utah high school basketball history, he is sixth in scoring, sixth in rebounding, and fourth in three-pointers made for his career. Not a bad pedigree.
Who else do you think will be in the mix to score for Southern Utah?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
To make bad news worse for head coach Nick Robinson, gone are the Thunderbirds top four scorers, most notably Jackson Stevenett (17.6 PPG) and Damon Heuir (15.5 PPG).
Obviously, this is all leading up to the big question - where does Southern Utah get their scoring from? Here are a few of the most likely ones to provide the scoring punch:
- AJ Hess - The 6'6'' wing man got better as his freshman year went along, finishing with an average of 5.8 PPG, but scoring 24 points against Eastern Washington, 15 points against Montana, and 16 points against North Dakota, all within the final seven games of the year. Clearly, he got more comfortable as the year went along, and took on the role of third fiddle in the offense after Wade Collie was dismissed. He has a solid outside shot (33%), and is great from the line. The development of Hess is probably the TBirds best bet to have a true number one option this season.
- Chris Nsenki - Nsenki only averaged 2.3 PPG last season, but there weren't always a ton of minutes to be had behind Heuir. He scored eight points in 31 minutes in the Big Sky tournament loss to UND, so he could have a bigger role waiting for him. He shot 30.5% from downtown on 59 attempts last season.
- Jayson Cheesman - He is known primarily for his defense and rebounding (where he is one of the best in the conference), but he is the team's leading returning scorer, at 6.8 PPG. He wasn't efficient at all, shooting just 40%, but got buckets with his offensive rebounding ability. He needs to be more selective this season. He doesn't really have much in the way of post moves, but that is not his game.
- Juwan Major - He comes in from Las Vegas High, where he led that team with over 14 PPG. He is a lefty with a good first step and the ability to score off the dribble. With the TBirds looking for a spark, Major could provide one as a freshman, as his ceiling is arguably higher than almost everyone else on the roster.
- Trey Kennedy - He is a guy that I really like. While scoring isn't even necessarily his calling card (last year, he averaged 12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.7 APG for Bishop Gorman), he has a lot of ability and versatility. He has experience playing a variety of roles (as a junior he came off the bench, as all of the starters were top 150 recruits), and has shown an ability to help his team in whatever way needed. Scoring will be needed this season, and Kennedy could provide it.
- Race Parsons - Another freshman, Parsons averaged over 27 PPG for his high school while getting some interest from Weber State and Utah State. He is a 6'4'' guard with a knack for scoring. In Utah high school basketball history, he is sixth in scoring, sixth in rebounding, and fourth in three-pointers made for his career. Not a bad pedigree.
Who else do you think will be in the mix to score for Southern Utah?
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Southern Utah Signs Trey Kennedy
Southern Utah added to their recruiting class with the signing of guard Trey Kennedy earlier this week. Kennedy played at powerhouse Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas (some guy named Shabazz Muhammad played there.
Last year he averaged 12.7 points, 6.3 reobounds, and 4.7 assists last year. He is 6'3'', and was a team caption of the 29-3 Gaels last year.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Last year he averaged 12.7 points, 6.3 reobounds, and 4.7 assists last year. He is 6'3'', and was a team caption of the 29-3 Gaels last year.
"We are excited to welcome Trey and his family to Southern Utah," SUU coach Nick Robinson said. "Trey comes from a great family, a championship high school program, and has been well-coached during his career. He brings additional leadership and versatility to the Thunderbird backcourt."Kennedy fits the mold of guys that Nick Robinson has brought in - players that can do a little bit of everything. He should be a solid contributor for the Thunderbirds.
Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)