Where Will Southern Utah's Scoring Come From?

Last season during conference games, Southern Utah was ninth in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency, scoring 0.99 points per possession. Among the culprits - they shot a league low 42.7% on two point shot attempts, and had a 20.0 TO Rate, worst in the conference. Essentially, they could grab offensive rebounds, but arguably because they had so much experience at trying to rebound missed shots!

To make bad news worse for head coach Nick Robinson, gone are the Thunderbirds top four scorers, most notably Jackson Stevenett (17.6 PPG) and Damon Heuir (15.5 PPG).

Obviously, this is all leading up to the big question - where does Southern Utah get their scoring from? Here are a few of the most likely ones to provide the scoring punch:

- AJ Hess - The 6'6'' wing man got better as his freshman year went along, finishing with an average of 5.8 PPG, but scoring 24 points against Eastern Washington, 15 points against Montana, and 16 points against North Dakota, all within the final seven games of the year. Clearly, he got more comfortable as the year went along, and took on the role of third fiddle in the offense after Wade Collie was dismissed. He has a solid outside shot (33%), and is great from the line. The development of Hess is probably the TBirds best bet to have a true number one option this season.

- Chris Nsenki - Nsenki only averaged 2.3 PPG last season, but there weren't always a ton of minutes to be had behind Heuir. He scored eight points in 31 minutes in the Big Sky tournament loss to UND, so he could have a bigger role waiting for him. He shot 30.5% from downtown on 59 attempts last season.

- Jayson Cheesman - He is known primarily for his defense and rebounding (where he is one of the best in the conference), but he is the team's leading returning scorer, at 6.8 PPG. He wasn't efficient at all, shooting just 40%, but got buckets with his offensive rebounding ability. He needs to be more selective this season. He doesn't really have much in the way of post moves, but that is not his game.

- Juwan Major - He comes in from Las Vegas High, where he led that team with over 14 PPG. He is a lefty with a good first step and the ability to score off the dribble. With the TBirds looking for a spark, Major could provide one as a freshman, as his ceiling is arguably higher than almost everyone else on the roster.

- Trey Kennedy - He is a guy that I really like. While scoring isn't even necessarily his calling card (last year, he averaged 12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.7 APG for Bishop Gorman), he has a lot of ability and versatility. He has experience playing a variety of roles (as a junior he came off the bench, as all of the starters were top 150 recruits), and has shown an ability to help his team in whatever way needed. Scoring will be needed this season, and Kennedy could provide it.

- Race Parsons - Another freshman, Parsons averaged over 27 PPG for his high school while getting some interest from Weber State and Utah State. He is a 6'4'' guard with a knack for scoring. In Utah high school basketball history, he is sixth in scoring, sixth in rebounding, and fourth in three-pointers made for his career. Not a bad pedigree.

Who else do you think will be in the mix to score for Southern Utah?

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Top 20 Departing #6: Damon Heuir

I am counting down the top 20 players that are departing the Big Sky via graduation, transfer, or any other way.

It could be easily argued that no player had a bigger role in his team's offensive gameplan than Damon Heuir did for Southern Utah last season. His 29.7% of possessions used was second in the Big Sky (behind Troy Huff). Unlike Huff, he was the Thunderbirds PG, meaning he had the ball in his hands all the time, bringing it up the court. His 24.8 Assist Rate was eighth in the conference, and none of the guys in front of him shot the ball as much as Heuir did.

All of this shooting led to some gaudy numbers - 15.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.2 APG. However, the fact that he had the ball in his hands so much might have been a little bit of a function of the fact that SUU didn't have a lot of offensive playmakers. Outside of Heuir and Jackson Stevenett (who we will hear more about later in this series), they didn't really have anyone consistently capable of creating good opportunities for themselves.

The biggest flaw in his game was that when he took twos, he shot 40% on them. And he took a lot, over six per game. That level of inefficiency crushed his ORtg, which was a solid but average 95.2. He shot 33% on three-pointers, which won't rank anywhere near the top of the conference but is not a bad rate. As mentioned, his assist rate was good, but he coupled it with a fairly high TO rate of 20.9, which is more than you would like to see your PG turning it over.

Another benefit to his offensive game was that he was solid at drawing fouls, and took about five free throws per game. Since he was a 77% FT shooter, this was big for the TBirds. Also, for a 6'2'' guard, Heuir rebounded well, posting a 10.4 DR%.

If you look at Heuir's efficiency numbers, there are some other guys that you could argue should be ahead of him on these rankings. However, because of the breadth of things he had to do for Southern Utah last year, and the fact that he was able to contribute in so many ways, he will be a difficult guy for Nick Robinson to replace.

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Dissecting the Big Sky's Top Scorers

Before the year started, I thought Collin Chiverton would be the leading scorer in the Big Sky, for a variety of reasons. Things obviously haven't quite worked out that, but there is a good race going on for the scoring title. There are three realistic contenders for the scoring title during conference games, but let's take a look at the top six right now, and go through a quick dissection of where they are at their best.


1. Jackson Stevenett (Southern Utah) - 19.9 PPG
Stevenett has been his normal self, as this is right in line with what he has done throughout his career. This is his highest scoring output, but that is only because he is a bigger part of the offense than ever - he has remained his efficient self. He shoots over 50% on his twos, and has a three-point shot that at least has to be respected (20/61 on the year). He is also good at getting to the line, and has shot a remarkable 120/135 (88.9%) from the line this year. For as much as he does for them, his efficiency and ability to pick his spots is fun to watch. He should get consideration to the conference POY.

2. Gabe Rogers (Northern Arizona) - 19.5 PPG
Rogers fires up eight threes per game - 215 total on the year - which, shockingly, isn't even in the top ten in attempts. He shoots 34.4%, which is not great, but not bad at all. Rogers is in a spot where sometimes he is forced to take a lot of shots, because (other than himself and DeWayne Russell), NAU guys struggles to create their own shots at times. He is 13th in the country in % of his team's shots he takes while he's out there, at 33.8%. He doesn't have a great game going to the hoop and scoring inside (41.7% inside the arc, which remarkably is a huge improvement on last year's 31.1%), and doesn't draw a lot of trips to the line.

3. Troy Huff (North Dakota) - 19.3 PPG
Huff is fifth in the country in % shots taken, at 35.8%. He might be the most athletic player in the conference, and is the most likely (along with Joel Bolomboy of Weber State) to throw down a highlight reel dunk, which he has done on multiple occasions this season. He has been amazingly consistent on his two-point percentage in his career - 48.6% (2011), 48.6% (2012), and 48.4% (2013). He is not a great outside shooter, though much better than last season. He doesn't get to the stripe a lot, and only shoots 68% when he gets there. If he can work on his three-point shot and/or free throw shooting this offseason, he can be a major force next year.

4. Damon Heuir (Southern Utah) - 17.3 PPG
Unlike his teammate Stevenett, Heuir is a little bit more of a gunner than an efficient offensive machine. He shoots the same percentage as Stevenett from three, but he has taken more than twice as many, hoisting up six per game. Inside the arc he is only at 41.2%, which is not great. He is solid at getting to the FT line, where he shoots a solid 78%. I think all of his shooting is at least partially due to the fact that SUU is not teeming with a lot of guys that can create their own shot, which can force Heuir to try to make something out of nothing. There is no denying that even though his percentages aren't great, he is a key cog in their offense this year.

5. Davion Berry (Weber State) - 15.2 PPG
Berry has matched the hype, becoming the top scoring option for a deep Weber State team. He doesn't force thing, and will pass the ball if someone else has a better look or if he is just having an off day (22.5 ARate). He has shot 53.5% from inside the arc, and 43.5% outside it, both of which are excellent marks. He has been good but not great at getting to the line, but is only shooting 71% from there. Room for improvement. He has been everything Randy Rahe could have asked for, and more.

6. Aaron Anderson (North Dakota) - 15.2 PPG
Anderson has been asked to do more than ever this year, and while his shooting percentage from three has dropped (48.1% down to 41.1%), he has made it up it with a better assist rate and lower turnover rate. But alas, this is about his scoring ability. Even though the three point shooting it down a little, 41.1% is still really solid. He has really improved in his ability to get to the line, which is especially important since he shoots 85% from the stripe. Before the year, I thought Anderson's ceiling might be a good role player. I was wrong. He has shown he can be a really good #2 scoring option. He might be the most improved player in the Big Sky.

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Southern Utah Is Alone In Third Place

It wasn't the most pretty game, but that's not how Southern Utah likes to win anyway. The Thunderbirds were able to go into Pocatello and grind out an 81-79 road win over Idaho State, which, when combined with Montana State's loss, leaves SUU alone in third place in the Big Sky at 8-5.

The Thunderbirds have been accused of being a two man offense, but they won on a night when Jackson Stevenett (7/17, 22 points) and Damon Heuir (6/15, 17 points) did not have their best games. Three other players scored in double figures, the the TBirds shot a blistering 25/28 from the charity stripe, including hitting their last four in the final ten seconds.

Southern Utah also overcame 22 turnovers. This was a big problem for them earlier in the year, but they had gotten better over the last few weeks. Needless to say, they have a chance to be the third best team in the conference when they take care of the basketball. When they don't, they can lose to anyone.

Idaho State put four guys in double figures, but it wasn't enough to get the win. They shot 41% for the game, turning it over 16 times themselves. They played hard and gave themselves a chance to win.

Southern Utah moves to 8-5 in the conference and is almost a lock for the conference tournament. Idaho State falls to 3-10 in Big Sky play, and seems to almost be a lock not to make the conference tournament.

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A Look at Southern Utah (With Help Of KenPom)

I will be honest, the team I know the least about in the Big Sky is Southern Utah. My guess is that among Big Sky fans, I am not alone. So I decided to take a look at the Thunderbirds, with the help of kenpom.com.

Through their first eight games, SUU is 316th in the country in offensive efficiencyy (89.6), and 282nd in defensive efficiency (104.7). In the Big Sky, that makes them tenth best offensively, but sixth best defensively.

On offense, their problem has been twofold. For one, they have turned the ball over far too often. Their TO Rate is 28.6, which is 342nd in the country (out of 347). PG Damon Heuir had a 23.5 TO Rate, but the frontcourt has been a big part of the problem. Starting forwards Wade Collie (35.4) and Jaren Jeffery (36.1) have sky high rates. Jackson Stevenett is one of the lone exceptions, as he has taken care of the ball despite a high usage rate.

Their other offensive problem is outside shooting, where they have hit just 25.8% from downtown. That is a tough thing to overcome, as it clogs the middle, as well as not allowing you to reap the benefits of threes. This is not a big part of their offense attempts-wise, but it would be big if someone can become a threat from out there.

Defensively, teams are shooting the lights out against them, as opponents have a 45% three-point percentage against SUU. I don't expect that will continue unless the TBirds are extremely unlucky, so that should be an outlier that will slowly adjust closer to the mean. They have struggled to force turnovers as well, as opponents have a 16.0 TO Rate, 325th in the nation. That discrepancy between how many TOs they commit versus how many they force is a big reason why they are 2-6.

Two things they do well is rebound the basketball defensively and block shots. Jayson Cheesman has been particularly solid in both areas, and has been a great signing by Nick Robinson. Cheesman has a 22.7 DR% and a 14.0 Block % (which is 13th in the country). The big guys are mostly unheralded, but they do a nice job of protecting the rim, which will further be a boost for their defense when teams stop hitting so many threes against them.

Southern Utah or Big Sky fans, anything else to add about them?

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Damon Heuir's Rejection

Damon Heuir of Southern Utah may be a PG, but he might have had the block of the year so far in the Big Sky, when he rejected San Diego's Mike Davis.



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Southern Utah Falls 67-53 to San Diego

Southern Utah had started the season 3-0 at home, but a poor start made sure they wouldn't be 3-0, as they fell 67-53 to San Diego on Tuesday night.

After falling behind early against San Diego on Tuesday night, Southern Utah started the second half on a 17-3 run to bring the game back within three. That is as close as the Thunderbirds would get however as the visiting Toreros held on to win by a final score of 67-53.

The Thunderbirds got a stat sheet filling game from Damon Heuir (17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists), though unfortunately one of the categories he filled was turnovers (6). He is having a solid year but a TO rate of 23.5 is a little higher than you would like to see from the point guard.

There were some encouraging signs, such as the TBirds outrebounding the Toreros 43-31, getting good contributions from everyone. They also had an impressive ten blocks. But they struggled from the outside (3/21 from three-point range, which isn't really their specialty), while turning it over 16 times.

They now have almost two weeks off, as their next game will be December 17th, when they will welcome North Dakota to Cedar City for both teams first Big Sky game.

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Southern Utah and Montana State Lose Close Games

If you just look at the box score, you see that Southern Utah lost to TCU by nine points and Montana State lost to Pepperdine by ten points. However, both games were tight deep into the second half before the Big Sky teams fell back at the stretch.

Southern Utah stayed in the game thanks to a huge day from guard Damon Heuir. He finished with 25 points on 7/14 shooting, including an impressive 9/12 from the line. The rest of the team was just a combined 11-41 from the floor. Jayson Cheesman had 9 points and 13 rebounds for the TBirds.

They lost in part because of an uncharacteristically poor game from Jackson Stevenett, who simply couldn't get the ball to go down. He was 0/10 from the floor, and finished with just one rebound and two assists in 26 minutes.

"Jackson didn't see the first couple of shots go through the net and he struggled tonight; a couple of them rimmed in and out, maybe three or four of those shots, and a lot of those were good shots, a lot were contested, but those are shots he's made before," Robinson pointed out. "I'm not worried about that, we had other guys chip in, Jayson was able to get some pretty good looks, Wade [Collie] made a couple of shots for us, and Tyson played extremely well."

Stevenett will have plenty of big games this year where he is the biggest reason that SUU wins, but that probably won't make him feel better in this one. The Thunderbirds led by a point midway through the second half before TCU went on a 24-15 run over the final ten minutes.

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Meanwhile, Montana State trailed by ten at the half before making the game very interesting late. It seems they used too much energy getting back into the game, and couldn't muster enough down the stretch. From the Bozeman Daily Chronicle:

“The difference was being down 10 at half,” Huse said. “They’re a hard team to come back on – we fought to get to where we were at and it comes down to a free-throw block out, a loose ball or something crazy. They converted, got a two possession lead and we couldn’t find the bottom of the net.

The Bobcats tied the game at 59 and trailed by two at the 2:47 mark, but they just couldn't make anything at the end of the game. They missed seven shots in the final 1:59 of the game.

Xavier Blount led the team with 19 points, while Jamie Stewart had 14 points. They struggled a bit with forcing some shots against the Pepperdine zone, which was not helped by an ankle injury to Flavien Davis, their best scorer inside. 

The losses dropped Montana State to 1-4, while Southern Utah is 1-5.

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