How Good Can Gabe Rogers Be?

After the graduation of Cameron Jones, someone is going to need to step up and be the leaders for the Lumberjacks next season. The frontcourt is lacking in established players and star talent, which could a lot of pressure on the backcourt.

Fortunately, NAU has a very talented player back there in Gabe Rogers, who could be a star entering his junior season. Rogers was second team All-Conference last season, so he is no stranger to success. But this year, there will be no Cameron Jones to draw the attention of defenses.

First and foremost, Rogers is an elite shooter from the outside. He shot 46.8% from 3-point range last season, draining 81 of them. Because of this, he posted solid EFG& and ORtg, though not quite as good as you would expect for someone with that high of an outside percentage. The reason is that he only shot 40.1% from 2-point range, which is a very mediocre mark. It is not really an aberration either, because he was at 41.2% his freshman year. An improvement to even a modest 45% would do wonders for his offensive efficiency.

Rogers takes good care of the basketball, posting a pretty solid 15.9% TO Rate, even with using 21.6% of their possessions. However, his Assist rate was also pretty average, at 16.1%. If he is going to be the leader, he has to become a better distributor. While he will be off the ball a bit with Stallon Saldivar in town, he needs to create shots for his teammates more often.

One more improvement would be if he can get to the FT line a little bit more. He is a very good FT shooter, and so some increased attempts would be a nice boost for his scoring and efficiency.

Cameron Jones used 37.6% of NAU's possessions last year, second most of anyone in the NCAA. That is a lot of shots and possessions to make up. Gabe Rogers was second on the team in those areas last season, and even more of the load will fall onto his shoulders this year. If he can improve inside the arc, maintain his great outside shooting, and find a way to get teammates a few more open looks, he could definitely be a member of the First Team All-Conference at the end of 2012.

Departing Stars of The Big Sky Conference

It may be bad form to link to your own posts, but so be it.

Just in case you missed it (I posted these awhile ago, and readership has gone up since then), I wrote up some posts about how certain teams will replace their departed stars. In case you are interested, here are the posts:

Eastern Washington - Glen Dean
Idaho State - Broderick Gilchrist, Deividas Busma
Montana - Brian Qvale
Montana State - Bobby Howard, Erik Rush
Northern Arizona - Cameron Jones
Northern Colorado - Devon Beitzel

If you are interested in having me look at any other departed players and the holes they are leaving, just let me know and I would be happy to write up my thoughts.

How Will Northern Arizona Replace Cameron Jones?

Since we have already looked at the departing stars at Montana, Northern Colorado, and Idaho St., let's move on to Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona was on the cusp of things last year, winning 19 games (respectable) and finishing 9-7 in the Big Sky.

But it could be tougher to replicate that mark this year, as their top player and First Team All Big Sky performer Cameron Jones has exhausted his eligibility after a stellar career in Flagstaff. Jones will be difficult to replace not only because he was an excellent Big Sky player, but because he was such a massive part of the offense.

Jones used 31.5% of the team's possessions (18th in the nation) and took 37.6% of the team's shots a season, 2nd in the NCAA (behind some guy named Jimmer). The good thing is that he was pretty efficient with those possessions. He got to the line 133 times and shot 80%, was 47% from 2s, and shot an impressive 41% from downtown (albeit on a relatively small 91 shots). He also shined as a distributor, as he had a solid 22.0 ARate and a 12.8 TO Rate, which any coach will take from their shooting guard. Add it up, and he will be sorely missed by Coach Mike Adras.

So how will they replace him? More of the ballhandling duties will fall to Gabe Rogers, who was pretty impressive in his own right as a sophomore. Rogers was second on the team with 13 PPG, but he was a different scorer than Jones. Rogers shot only 40% from 2s, and didn't get to the line too often, but he was dynamite from downtown, shooting 46.8% from beyond the arc (helping make NAU the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the country. However, they will need him to diversify his scoring some if he is going to take the next step and become their star.

After Rogers, there are some questions about who will get the minutes to replace Jones. One holdover from last year is Durrell Norman, who had a moderately limited role in his junior year. Curiously, as 6'4'' he had an OR% of 11.7, which was 4th in the Big Sky conference. He will get some run as a senior.

Another guy who should factor for minutes is freshman Danny Cheek, who could be the best incoming recruit in the Big Sky. He is a great athlete, attacks the rim offensively, and has solid potential on the defensive end. Don't forget his name if you are a Big Sky fan, you will be hearing it a lot over the next 4 years. Very excited to see what he can do.

Another contender are transfer Jywrell Wilson, who should have a role after coming over from Seattle via a smaller conference school. He is a very solid all-around talent that comes in seasoned.

So the Lumberjacks do lose Jones, one of the most potent players in the Big Sky, but they should have the talent level to replace much of his production. How far they come might depend on the development of Danny Cheek. It will be an interesting transition year for Mike Adras, who should have a pretty young team after losing 4 key contributors from last season.

How do you all see them replacing Cameron Jones?