The Improvement of Paul Garnica and Tate Unruh

With Northern Colorado losing as much talent as they did after last season, it was paramount that they had some guys really step up. So far this year, the two guys that have done that the most are guards Tate Unruh and Paul Garnica. Both were expected to have their roles increase after being part-time players as freshman last year, and they have answered the bell.

For Paul Garnica, last year he did a lot of nice things, but he had a couple big holes in his game. One, he was not a very good outside shooter, and that limited him offensively. He shot just 27% from downtown, and did not get to the line often. His other problem was that he turned the ball over way too much, with a TO Rate of 28.3%. Disregarding the obvious fact that he was blocked by Devon Beitzel, these had to contribute to him not seeing more time.

This year, both of those weaknesses have been improved a lot, especially outside shooting. This year he is shooting nearly 50% from downtown (though his 2-point percentage is down), and that is having a huge impact on his offensive efficiency. In addition, his assist rate has gone up, and his turnover rate has gone down, from 28.3% to 18.8%. There is still room for improvement to take the next step, but that has to be very encouraging for BJ Hill. He is also getting to the FT line a bit more this year. All in all, he has at times looked like their best guy.

At other times, Tate Unruh has looked like their best player. Last year he played sparingly, but was efficient in that time, mostly because he flashed his potential as an outside shooter. He shot 42% from outside, and even though he didn't do a whole lot else, that is a great skill. I said before the year he would need to add strength and he could be very dangerous, and he has done that.

Unruh certainly is not the most athletic or strongest guy, but he has gotten the job done for the Bears. His efficiency has only gotten better with more time, as he has shot 46% from outside, 51% from 2-point range, and is 18/19 from the stripe. He still doesn't do a ton besides that (low assist rate, average rebounding rate), but he has become a solid scorer. He leads the team in scoring with 13.1 PPG. He has a long way to go to reach this level, but UNC may have found their next Devon Beitzel. Compare Unruh's stats this year to Beitzel's sophomore year.

UNC is still a very young team, with only one senior on the roster, but the improvement of guys like Garnica and Unruh is one reason the fans should still be very excited for the state of the Bears program. Tad Boyle put a lot of nice pieces in place, and BJ Hill is capitalizing on them.

Follow me on Twitter @bigskybball

The Importance and Potential of Tate Unruh

When Devon Beitzel graduated, Northern Colorado lost their best player, and perhaps the best shooter in the Big Sky Conference. While he will have to replaced by a hodge podge of guys (no one player is going to match his production from last season), but one of the guys that looks like he could be a leading scorer for the Bears is Tate Unruh.

As a redshirt freshman last season, Unruh played in 17.3% of the team's minutes, but he was very effective in that time. Unruh was 8/16 from 2-point range, and 13/31 from downtown. He is a great shooter - in high school he finished his career fourth as Missouri's all-time leading 3-point shooter (46%) and 2nd best FT shooter (87%).

He does need to add some strength. He is 6'4'', 170 pounds and still growing into his frame. A quote from BJ Hill from last season said he had grown 5 inches in the past year and a half, so it is not surprising that he is wiry at this point. If he adds strength, it will make him all the more dangerous. He could also improve his ballhandling and ability to get to the basket, as that would give him even more room to maneuver on the outside.

With the loss of last year's Big Sky Conference POY, there is room in Greeley for someone to step up and take command of the team, and become the leading scorer on the team. Don't be surprised if Tate Unruh is one of the best offensive players in the Conference by the end of the season. He has the pedigree and skills, and by all accounts he has the work ethic to get the job done. If he can make the leap from his freshman to sophomore year, UNC will be sitting pretty heading into the Post-Beitzel Era.

Departing Stars of The Big Sky Conference

It may be bad form to link to your own posts, but so be it.

Just in case you missed it (I posted these awhile ago, and readership has gone up since then), I wrote up some posts about how certain teams will replace their departed stars. In case you are interested, here are the posts:

Eastern Washington - Glen Dean
Idaho State - Broderick Gilchrist, Deividas Busma
Montana - Brian Qvale
Montana State - Bobby Howard, Erik Rush
Northern Arizona - Cameron Jones
Northern Colorado - Devon Beitzel

If you are interested in having me look at any other departed players and the holes they are leaving, just let me know and I would be happy to write up my thoughts.

How Will Northern Colorado Replace Devon Beitzel?

Of all the player leaving the Big Sky, none will be more difficult to replace than Devon Beitzel. He was the conference POY in 2010-11, was one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, and helped lead UNC to their first NCAA Tournament berth. Not a bad senior year.

His ORtg of 123.1 was a robust 36th in the country. He had a True Shooting % of 65.5%, good for 15th in the country (thanks to shooting 57.3% on 2s, 39.4% on 3s, and 90% at FT line while getting to the line often). Simply put, he was a great player for the Northern Colorado, and he will be greatly missed.

So how will they replace him? As is often the case when you lose a great player, it will not fall on a single person.

The player who it seems will get even more of the ballhandling duties will be Elliott Lloyd. As a sophomore, he averaged 7.5 PPG and 3.3 APG, posting the best assist rate on the team. However, he also had a very high turnover rate, and that will need to change. He is a bit of a 3-point specialist, as he shot more 3s than 2s, which was ok since he converted 41.9% of those 3s.

Then there are a couple of guys that played modest mintues as freshman last year, but will be counted on much more heavily this season. The first is Paul Garnica, who as 6'1'' as a solid all-around game. He had a decent rebounding rate for a guard, but a high assist rate. However, like Lloyd, he had a high turnover rate, and he will need to learn to take better care of the basketball. He has the potential to be a defensive playmaker for the Bears, as his 4.3 Stl% just barely trailed Will Cherry of Montana (4.7%). However, Garnica needs to become more efficient scoring the ball. Despite being only a 27% 3PT shooter, he took 56 3s (as opposed to 74 2PT attempts). To become a potential All Big Sky player like he has the potential to be, he has to either improve his outside shot or quit taking it so much.

Another freshman that will see bigger minutes in his sophomore year is Tate Unruh. If you could extrapolate his efficiency over more minutes, you would have a star (if only basketball worked that way). In limited time he was 8/16 from 2PT range, and 13/31 (12%) from downtown. Nothing wrong with that. Without Beitzel, they will need him to score points.

UNC does have some recruits that could see immediate time. Aaron Hawk-Harris is a bigger guard that could have an immediate role. Tim Huskission is 6'5'' and could immediately be the best athlete on the team. These guys have definite upside, and some will definitely need to play a bit right away, so it will be interesting to see who emerges.

How does everyone else think UNC will go about replacing Beitzel?