There is one week left to play! Let's break the standings down... where teams stand, what they have to play for, and how they can get there.
1. Montana (17-1)
Since they survived Southern Utah, they are still in the driver's seat for the top seed. The magic number for Montana is 4... if they win four straight home games (two to end the regular season, two in Big Sky tournament), they will make the Big Dance.
2. Weber State (16-2)
Same as it ever was. They need to win out and get help. They should probably get things packed for Missoula.
3. North Dakota (11-8)
With three straight road wins, they have assured themselves a winning season in their first year in the Big Sky, and have third place locked up with Southern Utah's loss. Not too shabby.
4. Northern Colorado (9-10)
UNC has put themselves in a great position. If they beat Southern Utah on Thursday (where they will be favored), they are in, and likely has a number four seed. If they lose, they are not eliminated, but would most likely enter a tiebreaker, where things can always get dicey.
5. Southern Utah / Montana State / Sacramento State / Northern Arizona (8-10)
Well, this will be interesting. Southern Utah plays at UNC and UND, which is tough. NAU and Sac State have identical schedules - at the Montana schools. That means that Montana State gets Sac State and NAU at home. The first tiebreaker is the teams records against each other. Here is the current record for these 4 teams when playing each other.
Southern Utah: 3-3
Montana State: 2-2
Northern Arizona: 3-2
Sacramento State: 2-3
What does it all mean? It's still hard to say because there are so many variables. If it comes down to two teams head to head, here are the different scenarios:
- Montana State swept Southern Utah
- Montana State lost to both NAU and Sac State, so a loss to either of them in the final week would result in a sweep scenario.
- Northern Arizona swept Sacramento State.
- Southern Utah split with Sacramento State, and swept Northern Arizona.
Convoluted enough for you?
If it comes down to RPI (which would happen if all four teams finish 9-11 and are 3-3 against each other, which is very possible), here is where those stand as of Monday night:
Northern Arizona = 256
Sacramento State = 287
Southern Utah = 302
Montana State = 315
In other words, a lot can happen in the final week.
9. Eastern Washington (6-12)
Mathematically, they are not eliminated. However, they have to win their final two games and get a ton of help. It doesn’t look good.
10. Portland State (5-13)
11. Idaho State (4-14)
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