Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Ken Pomeroy's Big Sky Odds

If you haven't heard of Ken Pomeroy, you should learn about him. Each year, he puts the statistical odds out for each team's chances of winning their conference tournament. This year, things are split between Montana and Weber State... with everyone else having small odds to win. Which is basically as you would expect. Here are the odds:

                                 Semis Final Champ
2 Weber St.                 92.8   82.4  48.5
1 Montana                   100    87.6  46.2
5 Northern Colorado   65.4  12.4   2.5
3 North Dakota           59.4   8.0    1.5
6 Southern Utah          40.6   4.8     0.7
4 Montana St.             34.6   4.1     0.5
7 Northern Arizona     7.2     0 .7    0.09
Apologies for formatting.

Here is his explanation:

Montana and Weber State have combined to go 64-2 against other Big Sky foes the last two seasons. It shouldn’t be a surprise then that these two teams account for 95% of the possibilities for the conference champion. It might be a bit of surprise, though, that these two teams nearly split those chances even though Montana gets to host the event and they need to play one fewer game to earn the title. Weber State has generally been shredding its opponents worse than Montana and thus is viewed as the better team in this analysis. Montana is battling injuries, with point guard Will Cherry and forward Mathias Ward suffering foot injuries late in the season. Cherry is back but Ward is done for the season. All in all, it should be a competitive matchup if the two meet in the title game as expected.

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