Thursday, August 11, 2011

Big Sky Efficiency Numbers Over The Past 5 Seasons

I thought it would be interested to look at the last 5 years of AdjO and AdjD* numbers for the Big Sky, and see if there are any trends or just interesting happenings. I think it turned out pretty interesting. Here are the numbers, with some thoughts:



Quick editor's note - If they are colored in green, they were the regular season conference champions that year. If they are colored in red, they had the worst record in the conference during the regular season. Simple enough.

Things I found interesting:
- Northern Colorado is the only team in the Conference to improve their AdjO each of the past 5 seasons. And as Assistant Coach Logan Bean told me, they have increased their RPI each of the last 5 years also. If they can improve both of those again this year, I will be EXTREMELY impressed.

- In 2009, Sacramento State had the worst offense of anyone in the conference during the 5 year span, and the second worst defense (behind Idaho State in 2010), and they predictably finished 2-27. However, according to KenPom's numbers, they were only the 8th worst team in the NCAA that year. Which means 7 other teams were horrible.

- Idaho State's AdjD of 115.7 in 2010 was the 23rd worst defense in the NCAA over the last 5 seasons. Somehow, they still won 7 games.

- Eastern Washington's potent offense in 2007 was led by a guy you might have heard of named Rodney Stuckey.

- Conversely, Montana's stellar defense the past 2 years has been led by the Big Sky career leader in blocks, Brian Qvale.

- In 2007, both Northern Arizona and Weber State, who tied for the regular season conference title, gave up more points per possession than they scored. On the one hand, that is almost impressive. On the other hand, it doesn't say a lot for the conference that season.

- Portland State in 2010 had the best offensive efficiency of any team over the past 5 years, but they still finished just 13-19 thanks to some terrible defense.

- Sacramento State over the past 5 seasons can be best described by this clip from Seinfeld. "Look away, I'm hideous!"

Best 5 seasons, AdjO
1. Portland St (2010) - 109.5
2. Eastern Washington (2007) - 108.3
3. Portland St (2009) - 107.5
4. Northern Arizona (2007) - 107.2
5. Portland St (200) - 106.9

Worst 5 seasons, AdjO
1. Sacramento St (2009) - 87.5
2. Sacramento St (2008) - 87.6
3. Sacramento St (2011) - 90.1
4. Northern Colorado (2007) - 91.1
5. Sacramento St (2010) - 91.4

Best 5 seasons, AdjD
1. Montana (2011) - 96.1
2. Weber St (2009) - 97.5
3. Montana (2010) - 98.2
4. Northern Colorado (2010) - 99.9
5. Northern Arizona (2011) - 100.5

Worst 5 seasons, AdjD
1. Idaho St (2010) - 115.7
2. Sacramento St (2009) - 114.3
3. Portland St (2011) - 113.8
4. Eastern Washington (2009) - 113.5
5. Portland St (2010) - 112.4

*If you don't know what these terms mean, check out this link from kenpom.

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