Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Big Sky Standings Rundown

Let's take a quick step back and examine the standings of the Big Sky, with some notes.

1 Weber State: 18-4 (10-1)
2 Montana: 17-6 (10-1)
3 Montana State: 11-11 (6-5)
4 Idaho State: 8-15 (6-5)
5 Portland State: 11-12 (5-6)
6 Eastern Washington: 11-13 (5-6)
7 Northern Colorado: 7-15 (4-7)
8 Sacramento State: 8-14 (3-8)
9 Northern Arizona: 5-19 (1-11)

Some thoughts:
- Weber State and Montana are the two teams that have clinched spots in the Big Sky tournament, and it would be beyond shocking if they are not the 1-2 seeds in some order. Mark your calendars for Tuesday, February 28. These two teams will meet in Missoula, and chances look good right now that that matchup will decide the regular season champion (and thus, the team that would host the conference tournament).

- Northern Colorado is only one game back of being in the conference tournament, but looking at the way they have been playing lately and their remaining schedule (including games against Montana and Weber State), I don't like their chances of playing in the postseason. Sacramento State is two back, but I give them a little better chance. They have won three straight, and they have two games against Portland State, who is sitting at five wins.

- Really, any 3-4-5-6 order is conceivable at this point, as one game separates all of the teams. All of the teams are inconsistent - they are capable of beating anyone and they are capable of losing to anyone. If I had to pick an order (I am not sure why, but if I had to), this is what I would choose - 3) Idaho State 4) Portland State 5) Montana State 6) Eastern Washington.

- Really, the only team without a puncher's chance is Northern Arizona. They are 1-10 in the conference, and though they aren't yet mathematically eliminated, it is likely only a matter of time.

- I think the current top six are the teams we are going to see in the conference tournament, as there is only five games left. The interesting thing about that configuration would be this - on paper, I think Portland State and Eastern Washington are more talented than Idaho State and Montana State. But, as Kenny Mayne once said, we know these games aren't played on paper, but by little men in our TV sets. That would set up some compelling quarterfinal matchups if things were to stay how they are right now.

Your thoughts?

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  1. 1. Weber 15-1
    2. Montana 14-2
    3. Montana State
    4. Idaho State
    5. Eastern Washington
    6. Northern Colorado

    7. Sac - tied with PSU and gets tie breaker
    8. PSU
    9. NAU

  2. This weekend will tell us whether or not Sacramento State has a chance. They enter as one of only two 3-0 teams in the second half of the conference schedule (Montana is the other) and are looking good. A win this weekend against either school from Montana would keep them in the race with their remaining games being Idaho State and two against Portland State. Not the schedule I want to look at if I'm trying to stay ahead of a surging team like the Hornets.